ATP US Open Fourth Round Picks – 9/6/26 (Ep. 702)

0:00the tennis gambling podcast on the sports game podcast network is brought to you by the SPN app get over picks and podcasts for free with the SGP and app. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast here on the sports game podcast. Now we're currently Sunday morning, early Sunday mornings, 10th or around 140 AM Eastern time. I'm Roscarra Michelle. You're gonna break down the fourth run of the US Open on the men's side and recap what happened in the last episode in the third round. Then we'll segue into some not all of the fourth round matchups apologies, but some matches have no lines. So we're gonna have to pass on those. It is what it is. But either way, we're here to break down some upcoming tennis matches for a Sunday and for Monday. Before that, they're reminded to support the show. Like subscribe on YouTube also find the podcast audio only Spotify or Apple. So check it out there. Like subscribe on YouTube. Also, rain review on Spotify or Apple to up the channel grow and check out the merch store. Water Gritt tennis merchandise that we have on there. We've sweatshirts, we have t-shirts, we have mugs, we've hats now as well. Different colors

1:00very affordable. Think of like the options that we have. And a reminder, check out the free roll football contest, which is back for SGPN. Pick every game ATS for chance to win up to $4,000. It's free. So why not try to join makes money. Enter today. It's for scamp box comms slash free roll. Also check out the fundraiser. Eschvin gives back. We're continuing the ongoing effort to rebuild Colombia. So you want to help out the cause and donate to the cause. Join the I'd say cause at sports. Compact's comms slash relief to help out today. So moving on right into the recap of the third round of the US open for starters for the walk and dog. Had a decent episode. We actually had a really good I'd say predictions episode. The problem was I didn't pick the right dog. But either way we did very well early, especially on a Saturday. We got like the first five matches right on that one. So overall pretty good. One of them though was Booble with way Booble plus one nap sets as the lock of minus 130 got the tiebreaker against Paul into the third set completely fell apart after

2:01that. But not our problem because Booble like did win two of the first three. So very nice salute to Booble like for doing what he can to help us win and then losing in five to Paul, but not our problem nice win for the lock for the dog. A bully we took to win and both players to win a set. The latter part was free because we know Caboli never ever wins in straight sets. So that was exact that was kind of a given going in. However, blocks that avenge the choke that he had in Cincinnati against Caboli any one and four. Caboli won the first set in the tie break and then got destroyed in the last three sets. But either way did pick up a loss. I was willing to ride with the number six player in the world at a cheap price and either way it didn't work out. So ended up trying to get creative with the both players when a set angle, but unfortunately Caboli did unravel and got killed in the last couple of sets. So pick up a split there for the lock and dog for the recap though. Overall, the matches we actually did not give bets out on for lock and dog were still pretty good. I would love me. But I would win comfortably against winner Kentch. We like the minus one nap sets

3:04there. Keep one six fours across the board. Paul be Booble like in five. We did think Booble was going to win, but we thought it'd go over and we did it like Google plus one math sets that got there. Pick Dalcoras and three. They got there as well. Alhashka and Siti Poss for that one. True this we actually didn't mind the over in that one, but that didn't get there because there were a couple of six ones and a six two in there. But nice one for Siti Poss. First time ever he's made the fourth round of the US open, which is kind of very just weird to think about because he used to be a top four player in the world. And yet he was just never good here. I remember he lost the five center to Alhashka as before Alhashka became who he was. But Siti Poss first ever fourth round of the US open in the middle of whatever the last two plus years have been is very strange. But either way he had a nice win and he's going to be facing Shulton in the fourth round with a spot in the quarter finals in the line at Chavari and they're being Navona. We did like at Chavari without Navona. The lane juice was just I'd say incorrect or at least I thought it was going to be a coin flip.

4:08And it was not that Chavari killed him. He only dropped a total of 11 games in the entire match. But nice easy one for the dog there as at Chavari got the job done. Michelson beat Marita. This one was the painful one for me. Even though I didn't give it out for the lock or dog. I had Marita money line as the last leg and a 21 to one parlay. And Marita just choked away the first set was up a break. He blew it and then mentally checked out. I'll put it this way. Marita's definitely got a lot of talent. We saw it in Umock. He's an A to B champion. But he has so many negative output this way. I think that he has a lot of negative personality traits mainly just being extremely impatient and really just rolling over when things aren't exactly going his way. And Marita look he's yelling at his box the entire time. Not exactly I'd say a rare occurrence that happens all the time on the tour both men's and women's. But you could tell from Marita's body language when he goes down he really is going to take a lot of pouting and take it and stride because

5:15he is a guy who can really just unravel when things go poorly for him. And we saw that against Michelson as the match went on. So once he dropped that first set in the tie break when he had a break lead in that first set, you can kind of tell what was potentially going to happen and it did happen because Michelson broke him again. Marita in general not exactly a great server by any means but he's still one 55% of a second serve point. So it wasn't like he was that bad when it came to serving. But he broke Michelson the middle of the first set never broke again. But he mainly just mentally checked out after that happened. And as a result Michelson beat him in straight sets and my parlay went up in flames. A Tiafo and they're beating Vaturo in straight sets. Thought I would go four or five but I did pick Tiafo to win. So that was a nice win for Tiafo. Vaturo is a bit of a weird player to evaluate now because he was a no name guy. Then he won Shanghai. And now he's kind of in this purgatory period where he is still ranked in the 20s except you don't actually know like what his

6:17ceiling is because you had one Cinderella run and besides that a bunch of average to below average results and Tiafo toyed with him like that match wasn't even close. Tiafo lost a total of 10 games and Vaturo is ranked 23rd in the world. He got destroyed. So Vaturo is in a bit of a weird period where I don't really know how good he actually is. Is he in like a Karatsav type period? I don't know but either way Tiafo look great after after going to five seconds damn in round one he's been cruising. So we'll see how Tiafo looks takes on Mepedev in the quarter final should be fun and you had whatever the final match was between Shelton and Shapo where both guys are pumping sets to each other to start then Shelton got the job done. Shapo is complaining about the actual grunts of from Shelton after each shot. I agree with them. You can grunt if you want but the point is keep it consistent and Shelton was varying the length and the volume of the grunts so I actually decided to a Shapo on that one but still Shelton's a better player got the job done

7:18as he won in four. I'm moving on to the other matches that happened on a Sunday starting off with Fritz who was up two sets and nothing against Surundalo playing great tennis or a reminder he only lost two games against Blu-Chi in the previous round. When the first two sets Surundalo not really known as being a great hardcore player he's fine on hardcore but still mainly a clay guy and Fritz choked and completely fell apart and lost the final three sets. Fun fact Surundalo has two career top ten wins in Grand Slams in his entire career and both are against Taylor Fritz. The summary of Taylor Fritz and American tennis so Fritz fell apart completely but either way once again Fritz fell apart not exactly a surprise but a nice comeback win for Surundalo. Blocks beat Kaboli a straight forward in four Darderi beat Swini. Swini had a dream draw with Museti falling apart with the heat and Darderi killed him as he won in straight sets. Koshano keeps rolling beat Bombs he only lost nine games in the match destruction. Gia came back and

8:21beat Jangan 5 fun match there. The Zancho came back from two one down and beat Burj and five nice win for him after beating Dimana in the round prior. Zvera beat Tobilo in straight sets really no surprise there and Tien won an absolute war against Mensik at the end of the day Tien's a monster in terms of stamina and he's undefeated in fifth sets. I believe he's five and no in fifth sets so we saw them face off in the next gen finals a couple of years ago first the four in each set and Tien won in five. Same outcome here except the usual length per set. Not a surprise I thought Tien would win I think Tien just in general is a bad match up for Mensik because of what we saw Tien placed quickly he is willing to really extend rallies and force the opposition to outlast him and I think that's the key word I'll use it's outlasting and Mensik historically has had issues breaking down in matches even as win in five against Navone in the French open the man was cramping and crawling all over the place so I have seen Mensik struggle physically in these spots not

9:25to mention the crowd getting on his case because they're supporting the American but look Mensik overalls a good player a very weird player because he has a 1000 title in Miami in singles he has a mixed double grand slam title in the US open about a week or two ago with Mukova and yet I still feel like there's a certain ceiling to his game where I view a more as like a top 20 player as opposed to a top 15 or as opposed to a top 10 player like Mensik in general I think's good not great but it's resumes really good for guy that young but either way Tien warmed down like I thought he would and that kind of summed up the exact match because Tien won in five so there we go and we got an American who advanced however I have to acknowledge it Josh I did not forget about the women's side not going to break it down too much besides of course the American struggling uh I need some more vendetta blusin you ended up seeing uh Yovich ended up beating Eela a nice win there and you ended up seeing Goughwin Goughson great form we ever to win the title and Ego

10:27one we have heard straight we have heard of win the title as well however nothing's really we're talking about besides the biggest choke job we've seen all year we've seen multiple five nothing losses before but in the final set with no injury excuse in a grand slam I know sinner was up a ton in the French open against Rondolo and he fell apart that's bad because he was number one in the world but he also had basically a heat stroke and ended up losing at least there's an injury component there but what Madison keys did again Zhang is unbelievable so we know Zhang has been in the past a grand slam finalist had multiple injury issues she went through qualifying nice job and she ended up of course making it into the around 32 keys though former grand slam champion somehow when the australian opened with a crazy run a couple of years ago however keys was up five nothing in the third set that's right five nothing and a reminder when the

11:28us open so the crowd is fully in support of keys five nothing and she lost she had a match point it was in the five one service games it was on her own serve but she blew a five nothing lead to Zhang I believe Zhang on the live line was like a hundred and thirty to one in some exchanges or something crazy I don't remember exactly but either way keys managed to find a way to blow a five nothing lead in the third set and she lost did we have keys for any future bets absolutely not are we surprised keys didn't of all people any done five nothing happens were a bit shocked but keys it really does make sense when you factor in the amount of unforestation hits all the time and that's why her australian open title is so random to me by either way five nothing at home in the us open i'm anxious disgusting i nothing else i can grasp to Zhang though like very nice job

12:30by Zhang to respond from the injuries to come all the way back and to not quit down five nothing and the fact that she's into the rana 16 i'm very happy for her so wanted to give her a shout out however keys is the story here i mean keys belong to five nothing lead is insane on the she at least has a grand slam title somehow but that is just an epic collapse that i have to point out separately so no Josh i did not forget about the keys collapse i was saving that for last but that was definitely the storyline for both american tennis and tennis as a whole in the entire round of thirty two keys damn it man uh yeah nothing else to add there but either way keys collapse and that's the end of the women's breakdown as well for the round of thirty two before we get into the fourth run on the men's side or amount of the bro two buy our sponsor check out clutch parlay's that a back picks all over the place to check that out on clutch parlay's predictions are also updated alive during the games we get updated odds for every pitch basket and possession also

13:30check the leaderboard system if you want to compete with others they have weekly monthly and all time also very simple and easy to use dashboard check that out one stop shop for plus of the opportunities in research and also great sign up deal get them on free with the code ish band and sign up clutch parlay's calm promo code sgpm we're also broad among fantasy so if you want to keep your million you want to be a millionaire this football season down on it all getting joined into the keep your million promo start with one million dollars and head your betto cross twenty player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher lower keep whatever lands on the winning side but if you hit zero you lose keep that in mind make it through all twenty rounds and walk away with whatever's left in bonus funds your customers in select states don't get a 50% deposit match up to one k in bonus funds on a fantasy promo code sgpm dnafl is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our thirty two NFL team previews and of course to win a thousand dollar NFL future with

14:43welcome back everyone to the tennis camp podcast finish recap in the third round and the keys epic collapse time move on into the fourth round break down a reminder we are missing some lines so apologies there but not really my fault so i can't really you know do anything about it but it is what it is moving on to the matches taking place on sunday first match we have Paul taking on alcharez and a very fun matchup head dead speaking was now for the pricing alcharez massive favorite these minus five thirty a pauls around plus four forty eight is played a lot of sets of tennis we'll see how the stamina looks for Paul this one for the over under and sets is three and a half minus one thirty seven on the over the under though is plus one twenty two for the game spread i see minus five and half for alcharez with juice plus five and a half for Paul you can get six though so that's an option there over under games that thirty five and a half or thirty six so for the head dead or a minor that a couple of serious wars early in their career in fact we saw Paul do quite well Paul had one two of the first three meetings ever with both wins being in

15:47canada beat him in Toronto and in Montreal however since then alcharez has won each of the last five meetings and he's won the last three of them in straight sets now two are on clay you had the Olympics in twenty four and rolling garros in twenty five face off in the Aussie open this year and alcharez did end up winning was competitive though seven six six four seven five and of course alcharez won the tournament so Paul David Arun couldn't win a set but he was at least close now alcharez in general has been solid he's a look like a guy who is of course still elite but had some rust that they're not playing for months beats a full and straight sets lost first at the faria but once he lost that first set the faria he has completely switched gears and he has been crushing people so he beat faria handily in the last three sets and he beat yibing pretty comfortably now he got broken a couple of times but still he lost a total of eight games against yibing and he looked very good now Paul's been the opposite he's been winning but he's had a couple of marathons you

16:51win four against Wong four against prismich and five against bublic a lot of time on court so I do question how he's going to hold up physically as the match goes along for the actual match itself though I think we all know alcharez is a worthy favorite I think Paul might win a set here I mean alcharez has an exactly faced incredible competition so fooling's fine faria's fine yibing's fine Paul's definitely better than those players I mean Paul's had a pretty tough path I mean Wong we know it can be a bit tricky but still that's a win that Paul should probably have in straight sets prismich we know it's mainly a clay guy but still talented and bublic wasn't great form I end during that match so Paul's looked good alcharez has looked better the question is where's the value lie and I think the value lies with all reliable here and I'm gonna go with alcharez to win in both players to win a set I think Paul will do enough to win a set here alcharez has still had some dips mainly the serve over the course of the last couple of matches so I do think that Paul with his I'd say historical tendency to at least frustrate alcharez for a couple of sets I do think

17:57alcharez will end up winning but I will pick Paul to actually make this match interesting for at least I'd say an hour I think you're looking at alcharez to win the problem is minus 530 it's so expensive I just can't take that and straight sets I like the against yibing I don't know if I like that against Paul yibing I think has a lot of firepower but I do think he relies on a bit too much I thought that alcharez would eventually win the long rallies against them which he did Paul can definitely rally it's what he's good at I think he can't force errors from alcharez I'll go for alcharez to win both players to an asset though at plus 132 I think I'll end up winning I think I'll end up winning probably in four if I had to go for an exact score line if you wanted alcharez in four by the way you can get that currently available at let me just see what the best price is I see alcharez 3-1 at around plus 250 that's kind of my thoughts here I'll give Paul credit to win one set nothing more nothing less I'm gonna go with the alcharez favorite but once again my

18:58own reliable give me Paul to win a set included at plus 132 moving on to the next match up here we have a match up between michaelson and that chavari so michaelson the really I'd say not talked about america left in the tournament and he's been quite good he's minus 277 at chavari mainly clay guy at plus 245 here for the over under I see 38 and half games spread is about minus 4.5 for michaelson plus 4.5 for archivari the set spread minus 1.5 for michaelson plus more nafer at chavari and the over 3.5 sets is minus 167 so michaelson we know has been hyped up I'd say over the course of the event because he's been rolling he's won all nine sets now ended up beating sena in straight sets means nothing to me destroyed akashima who's in great form for the last couple of months and destroyed marita in straight sets who's in good form for the last couple of months so michaelson decent competition in the last two rounds and he has been dominant so far at chavari has been good but then again he hasn't played anybody beat kapriva who's the definition of a clay specialist in straight sets be firmly in four who got pretty lucky that long

20:03to luchi fell apart up five two in the fourth set so a nice win for a chavari but still not exactly a great opponent and beaten a vona who did beat baritini and jokavitch but still in the vona is not exactly known for being a great hardcore player so I understand my michaelson's big favorite they've never played before in the head to head but michaelson I do think we'll win I think it went pretty comfortably actually I think at chavari is a solid player yes some firepower but I do think michaelson is the better server compare to chavari and I do think that'll be the in my opinion deciding factor into this matchup just to compare the actual serving numbers so far into this event michaelson is currently landing three percent more for for serves he's also a winning about six percent more for serve points and thirteen percent more second serve points like he's clearly better than at chavari with the serve I think I'll win pretty comfortably in my opinion I think we're going to be looking at what should be a in my opinion straight set or four set win

21:04for michaelson I'll go michaelson minus one-half sets at minus one thirty seven at chavari's been good but he hasn't played anybody if you can beat marida and naka shima in straight sets I think it'll be at chavari in at least three or four so good enough for me I'll go for michaelson minus the one half set spread as my thoughts for this one moving on to the next matchup we've matchup between we're gonna skip the next one actually we'll save it for later we're gonna skip the next two actually we'll save those two for later for the end of the show moving on to the matches for monday we have no lines on zvera vindardary I think zvera is gonna win I mean nothing else to add there I have no price I'm not gonna really talk about it things vera vindardary won because vera has been pumping sets a lot lately and he tried to punt one to two to be low in the second set on a sadder day I'll go as vera vindardary nothing else to add there moving on to actual matches we have odds on we have gia taking on doesan shol for the match here we have doesan shol minus one sixty gia is a plus

22:06one forty two for the game spread I see minus three four doesan shol plus three for gia the over under the thirty eight and a half set total though is at over under three and a half the over's minus two hundred set spread doesan shol minus one that sets us plus one seventeen gia plus one half sets is minus one thirty four so for the path so far you're looking at doesan shol who's been playing very good tennis you're looking at him actually channeling some stuff he hasn't dropped the set yet the choensky beat them an hour actually sorry drop the set two sets the birds last round he had not dropped the set entering the last round be choensky in three beat them an hour in three and beat birds in five now gia's had a couple of close calls as well he ended up being a lucky loser losing two boss of already and he ended up filling in the last minute beats are on below in five that's jam serr on below beats fahja in four and beat jang in five he's played a lot of tennis like a lot a lot of tennis and i do think that doesan shol should be the in my

23:07opinion better condition guy even though both guys went five in the last round doesan shol block he's definitely in good form i think he's more talented than gia ironically gia has more ATP titles than him because he won a title in mexico a couple of weeks ago and are a couple months ago and doesan shol is never one one so i do think doesan shol should win the question is do i think it's going to be easy no i'll go for doesan shol in four i'll give me doesan shol to win and both players want to set i don't have a price on that but i do think doesan shol will find a way to win in four or five i'm moving on to the next match up here you have kashana vantian which i don't have obz on so i can't really talk about it kashana has been great he has only dropped one set and they're beating bortjaga beat philix and beat bansi tm though the beat borgis beat monthy and beat men'sick both guys are in good form i'll just pick a war uh give me five sets i'll go tn and five kashana was played very well he definitely is channeling what he used to look

24:10like in previous years but both guys are also quite good in fifth sets so i do think you might see a bit of a marathon here my thoughts of the over i in that one i just see a war i think they're gonna kill each other give me the over probably if i had to guess like 38 and a half give or take like i think it'll end up somewhere in the mid 40s i'll go for the over as my thoughts on that one but the last match wave odds on we have sarandolo taking on blocks blocks minus 153 sarandolo plus 136 over under is at about 38 games spread minus two and a half for blocks plus two and a half for sarandolo and the over under sets is at three and a half the over minus 192 under plus 166 the sets spread you have blocks minus one naft at plus 119 sarandolo plus one and a half at minus 136 so we saw blocks when comfortably against caboli drive for drop in the first set we ended up seeing sarandolo come back from two sets down as you ended up beating ferns and winning in five they played this year on clay and blocks ended up winning pretty comfortably a beat him in straight sats so i do

25:12think that block should win i think the price is pretty cheap actually sarandolo has been playing pretty good tennis but he can be quite streaky i mean ferns in general just had a fritz moment but back to back five setters against stroof and fritz i do question the stamina for him blocks though has been mainly great he did drop a set to trungoliti did drop a set to caboli but overall definitely the better hardcore player from what i've seen so far into this event and i do think he should end up winning this one my opinion in straight sets are in four the fact that he already beats sarandolo on clay this year i think it's a good sign of four blocks who we know that sarandolo is the better i'd say clay resume guy but blocks is better in every single area when it comes down to the serve so he's winning roughly 10% more for serve points and roughly 12 roughly 11% more second serve points so i think blocks wins pretty comfortably here sarandolo might win a set but i do think you're looking at once again blocks just being better right now

26:16i'll go for blocks to win in in my opinion four but i'll go for the minus one and a half sets here alag minus one i plus 119 it's a very good price i think sarandolo is lucky to be here so i'm going to go for blocks and four as my thoughts for this we're going to wrap it up though a four i see gbl asking about my super chats do you think i actually know how to turn that on i don't know how to turn that on uh that's a great question i have no idea super chats i don't know how to do that i just talked tennis i don't know to do any of that uh if you want to actually like send me money for the hell of it like you can just reach out to me on twitter if you want to i'm not telling anybody to do that like that's up to you but i don't know how to turn on super chats so i appreciate why you're asking i could tell why you're asking but i don't know how to do it so there you go but anyway uh that's going to wrap it up for the breakdown of the fourth round in the us open time to move on into the lock and dog picks for getting into the lock and dog or

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28:20from anywhere hit the football contest like commu's code sgpn to give 50 bucks off your proxy fees i did use football contest comm for my picks for the contest so there we go but once again get a discount use code sgpn to get 50 bucks off your proxy fees welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish going through the breakdown of the fourth round of the US open time to move on into the lock and dog picks so i skipped two matches and now i'm going to get back into them for the lock i'm going to the shelton and sissy pos match give me the over 39.5 at minus 122 shelton and sissy pos are dropping sets left and right each of them have yet to win a single match in straight set so far in the event there are in a bunch of ev marathon we saw shelton really punt away a set against chapo but every match he's had has gone to four sissy pos same story here his matches have gone to four as well i see a marathon unfolding both guys are good servers not that great at returning i think we'll see a breaker as well we've seen a lot of breakers recently

29:24there's been a seven five or seven six in eight straight sissy pos matches and there's been a seven five or seven six set in four of shelton's last five so if you want to give me four sets and a seven five or seven six i like my chances i think one of getting it over there plus they played one time before it was years ago in Cincinnati it was about three years ago it was breaker breaker no break points in the entire match so based on that i think both guys will serve well i think both guys are going to struggle actually generating break points and i see a marathon so give me the over a third nine and a half as my lock at minus one twenty two i like the price quite a bit i think the line climbs up probably like minus one forty in my opinion so i'll grab it now but i think that total should be like forty and a half or forty one and a half i'll take it to thirty nine and a half at minus one twenty two as my lock for the dog you know what nevetev has been incredible with the gum and i'm gonna trust him against he offo to some degree i will go with mevetev to win and both players to win a set at plus one fifty four so mevetev historically has been incredible

30:31against he offo so he has won six of the last seven meetings the one exception was an exhibition it was in the labor cup two years ago but mevetev is six and one including that match in the last seven he's six and oh only mentioning atp matches and you're looking at mevetev though who has not dropped a set yet but he also hasn't really played anybody as has mentioned many times before on the show i'm very anti-ritterknotch i know i made the final in Shanghai i don't think he's very good and we saw mevetev beat him he beat goersney who was a complete unknown would be colonnone in five and guess stone who's a clay specialist but mevetev has had a pretty easy path so far yes he's looked great i'm aware of it but the competition is not that great like rena kentra to one trick pony who if he is not landing his bomb serve really can't rally and i thought mevetev would kill him so tiapho has been great he went five against dam did a little grating in sake moto and against vaturo i think i want to set i think the os open crowd will get behind him i think tiapho will use the crowd

31:34maybe mevetev gets pissed off and puns a set but i think mevetev wins the fact is he does own tiapho lifetime and he's been playing very well since he discovered the bubblegum strategy of 2026 but i'll go from evetev to win in both players to one a set at plus one fifty four as my dog for the show so once again the lock and dog the lock's gonna be on the over third nine half games between shelton and sissy possum minus one twenty two for the dog in evetev to win in both players to one a set against tiapho at plus one fifty four they're up for the show back once again for the quarter finals of the os open till next time good ol tall of you and all of your bets bye roin