Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend - Preview & Prediction - 2026 US Open Round 4

0:00Hey guys and welcome back to the channel. We have Arena Sabile, conversant Taylor Townsend for the round of 16 matchup at the US Open. Before we do get into the detail, if you do end up enjoying this video, please do hit that like button, really do appreciate it. Also subscribe if you're new and you want to see more US Open content. A whole host is coming your way and so much already out as well. On top of that, comment below who you think is going to win this matchup and why always interested to hear your guys' thoughts. And if you're listening on a podcast platform, please leave a rating or a review. Read us out for sale. Okay, so Arena Sabile, the world number one at the moment anyway and the reigning US Open Champion looking to win her third straight US Open title. For Taylor Townsend, she has quite successfully, I think, transitioned from very dominant and doubles only specialist to now a real threat in the singles arena. This is going to be an interesting matchup. They've never played each other before and Taylor Townsend definitely does pose

1:00some difficulties for Arena and we'll break that down. I also think that Taylor has been playing better than her average level and we'll discuss that in a second. So before we do get into that tactical detail, I want to talk a little bit about their route to this stage. Sabile Nka played Osoro in the first round on 16264, then beat to Senko 6161 and then rack him over 6364. Townsend, beat Shka or Hualenska, sorry even, in straight sets, then Preston and Straits and then Shnadeon 3000 mighty impressive performance. I think if you're Arena Sabile Nka, you might think, ooh, I prefer and this could work for Townsend by the way. She might be looking at it thinking, but I think on paper, she would have thought Townsend on paper is an easier prospect to face, but she definitely cannot take Townsend for granted because she's playing some really good tennis right now. And let's talk a little bit about Townsend. So she has a very potent serve.

2:02She was hitting around Diggs, eight, five aces per match, but the first serve win percentage is what's really impressive from her and has been in this US open. 85% in her first match, 100% in her second match and then 70% in her third match. So she's averaging around, let's say 75%, 80%. If you compare that to her tall stats for 2026, her first set points one percentage, her average is 67.5% or 68%. That is quite a bit below. She's winning at least 10% more points on or behind her first serve, which to me is incredibly impressive. I think you have to also factor in services, of course, because on play, it's a bit more difficult to win first set points, but then grass is easier and I don't fast the hard courts, but I think that is still a good indicator that she's not just serving well, but she's backing up pretty nicely with plus one play and that's a real positive.

3:03Her baseline prowess has definitely improved. She saw it off both wings. She looks to be aggressive because she wants to transition from come forward. She's got incredible hands, arguing the best volume in the doubles circuit. I will defer to my doubles experts on that, but she's definitely got incredible hands and great touch and feel good drop shot as well. I think she's going to have to really dig into that arsenal against Sabelenka because trying to just serve a turn while they hit big from the baseline and go to Stoas Sabelenka, in my opinion, is not the way that she's going to be able to win this match up. But Sabelenka, she has been playing pretty well and I think she actually now in her last match, she started to peak a little bit. 10 aces in that one. Sabelenka has a very potent serve, but we're quite used to seeing her only hitting two or three aces per match. In the first one, she hit five and then second three, but in this one, she hit 10 aces, only one double fault, 67% of first serves in 76% of first serve points one and 84% behind the second serve.

4:05What's really impressive to me is that her second serve points one percentage tends to be around about the same, if not even sometimes higher, than her first serve points one percentage. I think that's just because she's got a good kick serve, it does tend to push people back and she does tend to get a neutral, a neutral or even defensive return at times, maybe one that she is able to attack and she's very aggressive and very good with her feet. I think her movement's really good to hit an incredibly potent plus one shot and it tends to do a lot of damage. For sure, whether that's up the forehand or backhand win, we know that she's got power off both. The backhand line is arguably, I'd say top three on tour. The forehand is incredible when it's on and the serve as well. And she's added the drop shots to her game, she's trying to come forward more as well. These are all positive things, the backhand slice. I think against Townsend, she will have more power from the baseline, Sabelinka, but Townsend's going to be craftier. I think if I was Townsend, I would be thinking,

5:05how can I disrupt Sabelinka? Because there's two ways I see of beating Sabelinka. You can go the Rybakeena route, which is essentially beating her at her own game and essentially overpowering her, which we've seen Rybakeena do, we've seen Madison Keydoos, Madison Keydoos even. The Australian Open a couple of years back or there is the variation or inducing errors route, I would say. There's a couple of different styles in there to beat Sabelinka and that is the Coco Goughway, the Mojoba way, for example. And I think in this case, it would be the Townsend way and I think the way to do that is I think she should be brave in the points, Townsend, serving and volling at times, I don't see any issue with that. As long as I think it's actually better to serve and volling against Sabelinka if you're going into the body, I think if you serve into a 400 even her backhand and she's not completely on the stretch, she's going to hit a really tough and probably pretty fast return back into play and it doesn't give you much time to set yourself

6:07to transition to volley. So I think Townsend would need to be smart when she does come forward. I think she should be utilizing the backhand side, even sometimes the forehand slice to mix it up against Sabelinka, try and drag her out with angles and spin, make Sabelinka move. She's a good mover Sabelinka, which is not elite and she doesn't feel comfortable having to defend it lots. So Townsend can do that, she can even throw in a couple of high up walls deep with a lot of spin, push Sabelinka back, then drag her in with the drop shot. Those are the types of things I think will make her feel uncomfortable, but Townsend needs to be the one who's taking the initiative in the rallies and that's easiest of them done because when you have someone like Sabelinka who's so good at being able to serve and return and her first strike tennis is just so good, generally speaking, it becomes difficult because you have to defend in order to actually get into a position to potentially transition into attack. And I think that's where Townsend's going to find the most difficulty. I think she needs to be really aggressive off the second Sabelinka return.

7:07I don't think people so far in this tournament have been against Sabelinka, I think Townsend should be. I think she should also be going into the forehand of Sabelinka. The backhand is solid, I think it's more solid than the forehand. The forehand, yes, she will hit with more power and potentially hit more winners off that wing. She also makes more errors. So I think before going into the backhand of Sabelinka, I think Townsend should be trying to go into the forehand. He's a seven done at the left, because you have to go potentially line with the forehand, should go across to the backhand's fine. But then I think before she ends up going across with the forehand, I think she needs to make sure that she has Sabelinka a little bit off balance, because the problem is if she doesn't hit with enough quality into that backhand wing of Sabelinka, then Townsend leaves herself open to the backhand line of Sabelinka, which means she'll have to defend off the backhand wing, which is an ideal. In terms of her prediction, I think it's actually quite a tough one to call, because they haven't played each other before. We haven't really seen what this matchup looks like. There's no data to actually go upon.

8:09I think Sabelinka will win, but I think in three sets, I would actually not be surprised, by the way, if Townsend wins this one, but I think given Sabelinka in the last match where she played, I know Townsend's playing well, but I do think the way for Townsend to win, if we talk about levels, I think Townsend wouldn't need to play her best. I think Sabelinka wouldn't need to play less than 70% of her best. That's kind of the way I see it, maybe 75%. Townsend's got the game. She is deceptively, she's a good mover as well, by the way, she's not a bad mover as you can defend, but I think Sabelinka should have too much firepower. Let me know in the comments what you think and why. Thanks very much guys, stay safe from work, and we'll see you next video.