Andrew Metrick and Philip Sheers - Escalation Management in a Protracted War

Guest host, Jim Howe, interviews Andrew Metrick and Phil Shears from the Center for New American Security (CNAS) on escalation management in a protracted war with China. They discuss the implications of a potential conflict with China and the need for the US to adapt its deterrence strategies. The researchers conducted tabletop exercises to explore different scenarios and found unsettling logics that could compel the use of nuclear weapons. They also highlight the importance of alliance management and the need for the US to engage in discussions with allies like Japan and Australia.

Andrew Metrick is a Fellow with Defense Program at CNAS. His research focuses on the linkages between strategic objectives and operational plans with a specific interest in understanding the implications of protracted, global conflict against peer states. In this capacity, he employs a range of qualitative and quantitative research tools to include operations research, GIS analysis, OSINT collection, and wargaming. Prior to joining CNAS, he was a campaign analyst and wargamer at Northrop Grumman. In this role, he conducted strategic and theater level analysis to quantify munitions, posture, and logistics implications of peer conflict. This analysis and the associated models received multiple awards for innovation. Early in his career, he was an Associate Fellow with the International Security Program at CSIS where he published several studies focused on maritime issues in Asia and Europe. Metrick holds a MA in security studies from Georgetown University and a BA in international affairs from the George Washington University with an academic interest in military innovation theory and technology diffusion. His writing has appeared in Proceedings, War on the Rocks, Defense One, and CIMSEC.

Philip Sheers is a Research Assistant for the Defense Program. His research focuses on escalation management, protracted war, force posture, and nuclear deterrence. Sheers also supports the CNAS Gaming Lab and the CNAS Mission Brief speaker series. Prior to joining CNAS, he worked as a Risk Analyst at IPSOS Public Affairs and served as a Research Assistant to Dr. Alfred Connable. Sheers graduated from Kenyon College with a BA in International Studies and is completing his MA in Security Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, where he has also contributed to the Georgetown Security Studies Review.

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