Albanese reads the room with cheaper fuel

0:00A.B.C. Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. I'm Carrington Clark, and I'm Alan Kohler. In 2026, Business Big and Small is moving at a rapid pace. And A.B.C. Business Daily is here to help you cut through the noise and spin Monday to Thursday. And on Friday, I sit down with business leaders, founders, creators, change makers, and those in the know. To ask them how they see the world, because that's business. All in the A.B.C. Business Daily feed. On A.B.C. Listen, or wherever you get your podcasts. The fuel excise will be halved, and the heavy vehicle road user charge reduced to zero for three months. All to make fuel cheaper for struggling Australians. It comes after the national cabinet meshed and agreed to a fuel security plan. With the Prime Minister declaring they were acting as one.

1:00But as petrol prices remain elevated and travel cancellations surge ahead of the long weekend. The Prime Minister has urged people to enjoy their Easter and keep the economy afloat. So will this current crisis be a major test of Anthony Albanese's leadership? Welcome to Politics Now. Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellas. And I'm Jacob Grieber. Hi, did you ride your pushy in today? Or did you come via some sort of transport mechanism that requires fuel? That's very, I had a fuel free day. But I'm not very far from the parliament when I say here. On foot, on foot. So fuel free day, although I do have a petrol car, and I've been winging about that. But look, okay. So the national cabinet has been convened over the last few days though that has not been the only news. The government has been acting daily on this crisis. So Jacob, what do we know?

2:00Well, we know that there are some huge announcements. The halving of the exercise is a big deal. Just to give you a sense of why it's a big deal, basically. It's literally cheaper petrol, right? Like it's going to make your petrol cheaper because the government is taking a hit to give you bowser relief. So the Treasury of Jim Charmers said the change basically would result in a $19 reduction in the cost of filling up a 65 liter tank. It will cost the budget and also at the same time. They're making changes to the heavy vehicle road user charge, which will come into effect. All of this starts Wednesday. And there are other measures. We'll get to those. But Jacob, quick thoughts on this. This is a big deal, right? Well, some of that, the opposition's been calling for it. And the government's now there as well. They will say that they had to negotiate with some of the other states on some of these issues. One of the other little wrinkles in it is, of course, the GST take has gone up with higher fuel prices.

3:07Now, the federal government says that's not federal money. That's money that goes to the states. And so there may be another component there in the GST that everyone pays on every liter of fuel that they buy. It's going to be up to the states to somehow give that back to consumers. The treasurer saying that was for the states to sort of announce later today. We're talking Monday, early afternoon. So watch that space, see what each of your jurisdictions do. But they've been collecting more additional GST revenue as a result of this war pushing up prices. You're right. So it's a 26.3 cents per liter reduction on the federal exercise. This has happened before. This happened during the Ukraine crisis. It does create a problem down the track when you have to take it away. People don't like that. Think about it. It basically means an overnight increase to petrol again. Right. Right. Now, the government argues that this is an indiscriminate crisis in that it hits everyone by having to pay more.

4:08So they have decided that this is the quickest way. And it is actually administratively the easiest way to get that relief through to people. There's a more nuanced debate about all of this as well. Is this the best way to handle this particular crisis? Because this is a crisis of supply. And so we need to get demand to the same level of supply. That's always unpleasant. That hurts people. It's the nature of a mismatch between those two things. What they're doing here doesn't necessarily push down demand. No. And the government seems to be saying it's okay for now because they keep telling us there is enough supply. It's just that people are worried about it and so that's driven the price up. So that's an interesting test. That is an interesting test, which takes me to the weak end announcement. Which is something you've been foreshadowing. I've been talking about in interviews asking people, are they going to go there? Which is the essential underwriting bankrolling of paying on the market,

5:08ridiculous amounts, this is my language, but ridiculous amounts. Whatever it takes. Yeah. Of the fuel. So going out and doing it and the commonwealth bearing the cost if companies can't recoup the price because, for instance, you buy it at this record price to explain and then petrol goes down and then you've spent this premium and you think about that. So someone buys it, let's say $200 a barrel. We get to a point where it's that bad of a crisis, ampol or BP or whoever the people are that import oil into this country. They go into the market and they pay on the spot market that high price. But then lo and behold in the month or however long it takes for that ship to arrive in Australia, the prices dropped back down to 100. They can only sell it here for 100. They can't sell it for 200. So what the government's doing is saying to those offshore buyers of oil for Australians, we will cover you for that difference. Which is huge and means that they can go out and do that because they would not bear the risk themselves.

6:11So on paper it means we can get more fuel into the country because they also claim that this fuel, this mythical fuel exists. I know, but I'll say, let me tell you why I call it mythical. Because you and I have been a little obsessed with this. And we both know that the prime minister had a view and he'd expressed it to people, which is how we know, that he wasn't so sure all of this mythical fuel was out there waiting for us to spend record amounts to buy it. Clearly they've convinced him. The reality is the war is affecting 20% of the world's fuel. So there's still 80% of the world's fuel being produced elsewhere. It's more expensive than it was. And that's why these measures are important. Australia is a wealthy country. It has other means to raise revenue perhaps to pay for this. And we've talked about this in that discussion as well around what happens with some of the exports of energy that we go through. So there is a capacity to do it.

7:11It's just that the government has to send the signal to the market and that's what it's doing. This is a market failure and the government is stepping in here to close that gap. So big, big moves today. I think they will have a big effect. They should have an effect on people's confidence. People are being told by the prime minister as you said. Have your Easter. Enjoy the travel you had planned. Be interesting to see if people buy that. It'll be very important for all those regional tourism operators that people do those trips. This is one of those periods of the year when they collect a lot of their annual revenue in that very time. Oh, absolutely. So it's vital that that happens for those folks. It's dangerous for them and it's dangerous for the economy. And that was the other message you were sending that they are worried about this kind of sudden halt to movement potentially and business. And what that means for the economy. And they're right to be worried about that. So we have a baked in inflation problem but contradictory. We have a looming potential economic contraction problem too, don't we? It's so analogous, isn't it, to the COVID period.

8:13Where the problem was a health crisis and the government at the time had to manage the impact on humans of an illness that we didn't understand and frankly looked quite terrifying at the time. And an economic problem and they bridged it by things like job keeper and keeping the economy going. This is the start of a similar version. This time the risk is not on people's health, although it might be in the long run. And the risk is on the ability of the economy to do everything. Bring your food, have enough fertilizer, all the things that matter. And they've got to build a bridge here to make sure the economy doesn't take big hits that then have a lasting effect. There's definitely going to be an effect as you said. Inflation's up now for the rest of the year. No question about it. There was no avoiding the consequences of this now. They have to manage that. And this is what it is. And there's still the unknowable question of how long this goes. Did you think the Prime Minister's comment on the question from our gallery colleague at Channel 7, Mark Riley, said, what is your true thinking about how Donald Trump is handling the war?

9:15I thought this was fascinating. I'm so glad you asked me. So if you look at polling and if you just walk around and ask people, because polling should be reflective of the same sentiment. So I've looked at the polling that came out overnight. And I've also talked to as many people that will bother to talk back to me. People hold Trump responsible for what's happening. And you know what, they are right to. They are right to because his actions at the US is kind of bizarre behavior. That seems to be structuralists have no kind of end date. No real purpose. No explanation to allies has put the world economy. And of course, real people's lives, but the world economy indistrates. So the Prime Minister at the start, back to the action on Iran, has been holding cards close to his chest despise, being given a few, you know, backhanders from Donald Trump, who even singled out Australia last week.

10:16The opinion polling has shifted the coalition, because I think the opposition on this is fascinating, has stood by Trump broadly. And then the breaking of ranks, firstly on my show, when I last week on afternoon briefing, where we heard the fantastic Iran holding, you know, by the balls. Did you hear that and go, oh my God, by Andrew Hastie, he went further on insiders talking and rebuking Trump and talking about him being responsible. Why do you think he's saying that? Because that's Australia's sentiment, and he believes it. Now you asked me about the Prime Minister, I'm getting there. The Prime Minister has for the first time today. He's outlined the questions he has about this war, and therefore pushed back against the US. That's not a mistake. They are things that have been going on in his head anyway. Why verbalize them? Because he realizes he has to be Australians where they're at. And that's how Australians feel. And I think the key point, just to bring people up to speed

11:16on what he said just shortly. So there's two things. On Friday, our time, Trump gave Australia a sort of general slap and said he was disappointed that Australia and the UK had not stepped up to help provide assistance in the state of Hummus. And the Prime Minister that day got up and said, very quickly, and I think people are familiar with this remark. Well, we weren't asked about this war beforehand, and that's the Americans' right to do this. But we weren't asked. The bit he didn't say was, which meant we couldn't help you plan for it. It meant we couldn't get ready for it. So it's a bit rich that you now want us to help you at the drop of a hat on what is a very, very dangerous situation that would risk Australian lives, servicemen and women's lives, and you want us to do that immediately. So that's the bit that he doesn't say out loud. And then today, we want clarity on what the goals of this war are. And that's a direct shot at the White House. It is. A direct shot at the White House.

12:16And a necessary shot, because it's one thing being dancing with diplomacy, which of course you expect a Prime Minister to do. You don't want Trump to do that sort of behaviour that's a radic, unpredictable. So I think Australians generally rate a sort of predictable, measured Prime Minister. I think it's in our nature, our centrist nature to want that. But Australians also don't like to be hoodwinked by their leaders. And when they can see right in front of them, behaviour, Trump's behaviour, the U.S.'s ad hoc bizarre war and a lack of accountability for the consequences of that and a government not calling it out or asking questions, they think, what are you here for? What are you doing? There's no question that the war does not appear to be going well from where they were supposed to be four weeks ago when they started. We're now heading into the second month. There's reports out of Israel and the head of the IDF telling the Israeli Cabinet

13:16I'm giving you 10 red flags as if to say this is becoming too difficult. They're stretched. The Israeli military is stretched in too many directions. They're moving into Lebanon. They're continuing sorties against Iran. The hooties have entered the war in the last several hours. Which really escalates it. Which escalates it makes the Red Sea problematic from a trade point of view in addition to the Strait of Humours. There is some pretty interesting, it hasn't been confirmed, but it's from pretty interesting sources online that the Americans have lost an AWACS and I stress that's not confirmed, but if you go digging around an AWACS is like our wedge tail, very, very expensive piece of equipment who was hit in Saudi Arabia. If that turns out to be true, that is deeply concerning that the cost of this conflict continues to escalate and there's no apparent end in sight.

14:16And I think that's where our Prime Minister is coming from when he says we need to see what the plan is. What is the goal here? Allies now of America are asking that question of Donald Trump. What are you doing? What are you doing because the role of the Prime Minister is to serve Australians in Australia's national interest and this is demonstrably not in our national interest. If you just look at the havoc it's causing on our own economy. And so that's what I mean by an eroded piece today. It's on ABC News online. I feel, if we could just zoom out and analyse him over the last week, that I do think there was a lackluster lack of sort of the right tone at the beginning of this crisis. The government was almost particularly Chris Bowen and he's been called out by his colleagues to me to work into people as being basically a little condescending to Australians freaking out. It's a sense of indifference in his delivery. Yeah, just like you're all sort of silly, we've got the fuel.

15:16And it's like even if you do have the fuel, right, let's say, okay, you're right, you're not again, I love the word hood winking today. You're not tricking us, you've got the fuel. There are still lots of service stations without fuel. And people have an anxiety. Look, some of that probably comes from the media coverage, won't put that aside. It also comes from common sense. Right, so just people get worried. And I think their tune now is quite different in the last several days, isn't it? Okay, so we've had the daily press conferences with the Prime Minister and Chris Bowen. Started on Friday, I think there was one on Saturday. There was one yesterday. So they're announcing, addressing, not minimizing the crisis. And then today, of course, national cabinet meeting. Now, interesting few political points. We will see the opposition claim this is a win for them. Remember, at the end of last week, Angus Taylor and others came out and said they believed there should be a cut to the fuel exercise. So they were calling for that at the time.

16:16The Prime Minister didn't rule it out. So that was a bit of a sign, wasn't it? That they obviously had this in the mix of considerations. You were right before to say it doesn't deal with the supply issue. They're trying to deal with that with spending ridiculous amounts of money potentially on fuel. It does deal with one big question. And that's consumer sentiment, consumer behaviour. And also, key, Australians feeling like their government's listening. If you can make something cheaper through something you can do, you're going to do it. Right? Like, you know, cause and effect. We know it's expensive. If we can take 26 cents off, we'll take 26 cents off. So it's whatever you think of it, it's very good politics, isn't it? Because you can't not do everything in your power to make something more accessible for people who heavily rely on it. Now, people have no choice. They rely on it in this country because we have vast distances, not great public transport for everyone. Like, not everyone has the choice of getting on a train.

17:17I think there's no question people will welcome a 26 cent reduction in their fuel per liter. From Wednesday. The problem is most people's bills, especially if you buy diesel, are up actually by a lot more than that. Most people's Bowser cost is doubling, isn't it? And so this doesn't get you back down to that level it was before. So it will be welcome, but I think there's still a lot of people going to feel it and will be grumbly about it. I think so. They seem to be blaming Donald Trump first and then the government. But the problem with the government is they will look closer to home for who isn't doing it right by their sort of measures. The other thing that I think we've, we should probably mention today that's been announced is these four levels of action. Yes, thank you. Isn't that interesting? Very, so go further. Well, they've got sort of four different thresholds. We're already at level two, the Prime Minister said. So the first one was planned and prepared. And that was the last few weeks. And in that world, I think we all thought, well, the government and the Prime Minister probably thought this thing is over in two or three weeks.

18:18Well, it wasn't. It's still here. I was talking to some various sources. I'll keep it vague. People in sort of defense world. And fascinating. They say things like, well, we don't really think in terms of weeks when this sort of stuff happens. Months at best, but more like years. And these are folks who have seen how these conflicts get sticky. They're not over quickly. They last for many, many years. That is the history of this kind of situation. So that's a pretty sort of bleak view behind all of it. Anyway, plan two, keep Australia moving. That's where we are now. Stage three is. Things like fuel excise are part of plan two. Stage three and four, he refused to say which one it was. But one of those is rationing or heavy controls. Well, it would have to be okay. So stage three is called taking targeted action. Okay. So, you know, being really targeted about what they do, where they put fuel, that sort of thing is my interpretation.

19:20In stage four, that's where I think fuel rationing is. Sounds about right. Because it's protecting critical services for all Australians. Well, what does that mean? That's making sure, for instance, that the fuel goes to food. Right? Like the making of food so we don't starve. And then the transportation of food. Yeah. Rather than perhaps your Tuesday domestic travel. You know, like whether there is sort of eventually restrictions on plane travel and how much like they could be. And of course, the reason the government went into national cabinet today, because I think the politics and the psychology of the politics we have to explore, one of the really interesting things is they went in briefing. Very clearly we're going to go light touch approach. Why would they do that? It's the elephant in the room and it's COVID. Now COVID was five years ago. The minister said it to me. He said it today in the press conference. He said we don't want to make the same mistakes as COVID. They're doing the Gladys Berajiklian model,

20:23as opposed to the Dan Andrews model in this crisis at the current point in time, by which I mean a light touch. That's right. And the reason for that is I think people have spoken very clearly about the level and the length of restrictions. And also human behaviour 101, you and I know this. We live in a particularly sort of secular democratic culture where we have as much agency that's possible in a society where we all have to live together. I don't know, full rights. I've got to sort of do everything to fit in. But to all of the sudden restrict people's sort of agency and how they design their work in their days, a big deal, right? So they are very, very careful about doing that. And they are right too, I think, because if you look at some of the trends we've seen and the disruptions, if I can get a bit deep with you, I think a lot of it has come out of that COVID crisis. And a lot of anger and disgruntled feelings about big government,

21:23top-down approaches, you know, control over your life, a sense of lack of agency. I know in Victoria where I come from, it's been a big thing. And I know people who've felt it very clearly. Where the restrictions were heavier than anywhere else in the country and even the world. And it has a long tail, that psychological impact, right? So this time, the PM's read the room. Some of the state premieres and the territory leaders. They don't want to go down that road. However, if you look at, as you rightly said, the four points, eventually you could get to some of that road, because it may be necessary. What they're telling us with the, we're going to spend lots of money on fuel, we're going to cut the exercises, we're going to try and avoid that people. And at the same time as an ally, which is the other key part, try to start mounting some pressure on Trump, which I don't think we've been doing, but try to say, hey, where's your exit plan? Because we're suffering, and we're allies, and we need to see it, because we can't go on like this. Wouldn't you say that's kind of the approach? Yeah, where is your exit plan? It's such a great question in this world of,

22:25what would it be called? I don't know, catastrophic success at this point in time? What we're dealing with is genuinely, and I'm just looking up at my screen. Of course, we've already seen the Prime Minister speak, but we've got now rolling press conferences. I've just seen Chris Minne speak, he's the new South Wales Premier, so they're all owning the different parts of it. Just to go there on what each of the states are doing, it's interesting, isn't it Victoria? Which has an election around the corner, free transport, public transport, has many years of work. I called a mate of mine, I said, let's catch the train on Wednesday. Indeed, indeed. I think Queensland, I think the Southeast corner still has that 50 cent deal. I forgive me listeners from that part of the world. I haven't been up there lately, so I think there's not much more to give away there, really, is there at 50 cents? So, New South Wales is the big one that's left. Daniel Mookie on one of the ABC radio shows this morning, I think your Sally Sarah's show, seemed to be linking it to the GST, and the carve-up of the GST, as in we're going to give away our GST that we get from fuel being higher, and you want us to also pay for free public transport.

23:26Hey, other states, cough cough, everyone knows they're talking about WA. So, this that argument now between the states as well. Albo was keen to make sure, the Albanese was keen to make sure those things were all kind of kept in check, wasn't he? He was very careful to keep it in check. Hey, just a couple of other things before we wind up the pod for today. I mentioned him earlier as being a really distinctive voice, I think, in the almost the anti-Trump anti-war campaign, which is Andrew Hastie, and I think it's been really good, can I say, for his career? I think his interview on Insiders was, I sort of called it the audition tape for this is what you get, and I can tell you in the political circles I mix in, which are many, like adjacent ones, all over the joint, it was roundly seen as a very impressive piece of, you know, political theatre, political performance. Whether you agree with where he comes from ideologically or not, he's putting a lot of thought into what he's doing and saying,

24:28he's thinking about some of these issues. More than that, he did something yesterday, which I haven't heard others do, in a really, really crisper way. He was distinctively Australian in the foreign policy, which I think there is people crave, crave. Equally, he talked about losing votes to the left as well. So the populism he's now essentially the sort of leader of inside the coalition, which is what my four corners try to explore also, is a sort of populism that isn't just from the right. And I thought, that's what the biggest signal that he was sending to, that he understands that young people's concerns from the left and right, that it's not just sort of... Well, talking about how the game is rigged against young people. That's sort of language. Which is the sort of language. He wouldn't love this comparison, but I'm going to make it. You've even heard from the Greens. Well, I was thinking people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the United States, Democrats saying lines like that. I think if you asked him, he would probably say that he was quite often aligned

25:29with what was once called the Labor Right, you know, on a lot of issues. Very interesting character. Yeah, a really interesting character. What's also interesting though, and we're just going to leave it here, but he didn't talk about the war he also talked about. His views on, as you say, intergenerational issues in the economy around tax, negative gearing. Particularly on negative gearing. Capital gains. Now, he said that for the first time an afternoon briefing last week, he expanded yesterday and was really clear about, you know, I'm not here to defend, like the last bastion of Neo. What was it like? Neo liberalism, yeah. Yeah, it was pretty out there, right? Like just putting down his markers today, the actual leader of the Liberal Party, another conservative, a very different school of conservative, a very traditional conservative Angus Taylor. Like a Howard. A Howard. But think about it, Angus, sorry, Angus Hastie. Wow, that would be a blend, wouldn't it? Angus Taylor, when he was a minister,

26:29pursuing this sort of rational approach, was the minister that instituted a fuel policy that had our reserves in Texas in a salt cave? That's not a hasty view of how you do things. So that quip about, I'm not a Neo liberal, or I don't want to, no one's going to reward us for a final last stand for Neo liberal politics. That's the direct quote. Well, Angus Taylor is a representative of some of that politics. So it's a really interesting dynamic how these two play out internally with each other. Very interesting dynamic. All this is right. The slap down though from Angus Taylor, who was a voiding rebuking his colleague to be fair. You know, if you watch that whole press conference, don't you reckon it was sort of the theater of, I just love the theater of press conferences. I suppose that's why I'm in this job. So are you? There was a lot of avoiding it. And then whack, you know, no. That is not economics, the liberal party way. That was the message. And I thought, mmm,

27:29I don't know, Mesh, if it isn't the politics of the liberal party, because I know that half of the conservatives, well, I don't know if I can quantify half, but a sizable number. People like Garth Hamilton, who I had in my documentary, think that sort of Neo liberal era should be over. And the leader of the nationals, who is now Matt Canavan, who would be if they were elected, Deputy Prime Minister, also thinks neo-liberalism and that kind of free market economics needs to be reined in. So Angus Taylor can say what he likes, but he might be eventually, and I won't claim now, but eventually outnumbered on these issues, watch this space guys, the liberal party is changing. Am I right? It has to change. I mean, it has to change. There's more polling out about one nation's rising sort of support. It has to change. Look at what happened in South Australia, where I think there's a handful of liberals left at this stage. They're still counting a few more of the last seats,

28:29but they'll have barely enough to fill a tarago at this point by the looks of things. They're in serious trouble. So some of these, some of these, I guess you'd call them younger, new liberals are looking for new language, for new ways of talking about these issues, that connects with where Australians are at. That's smart politics. You have to do that when you're in that much trouble. Yeah. So question time today will be interesting. It's about to happen. So we've got to go, because we've got to run to question time, which is what we do, but I'm sure it'll be a lot of Dorothy Dix's of the government explaining how they are intervening into the fuel market to help Australians, the opposition's going to have a hard time trying to whack them because they do think as of today, and it can change, the government looks like they're on top of this crisis to be fair, and it's hard to critique them within that. The Prime Minister's stronger line, also on Donald Trump, is a challenge for Angus Taylor. Think about why. You've got Andrew Hastie, challenging Trump. Now the Prime Minister.

29:29Obviously, openly saying Trump sort of off-right. And now the Prime Minister also questioning him. So is Angus Taylor going to be the last one standing, standing by Trump? That's going to be very hard. And of course, never forget that one nation, right behind Trump, as I think was beautifully said by Hastie. Yeah, you're right. Wasn't that line amazing? Are they more pro-Mega or Australia? It's a killer debate. It's a killer debate on the right. And that's exactly where Hastie and Matt Canavan are prepared to go. Haven't seen Angus Taylor go there yet. No, I haven't. Let's see if that shifts because politics is changing fast. That's it for politics now today. Tomorrow I'll be joined by Raf Epstein for the latest. And if you have a question, send it to the party room at abc.net.au and Fran and I will answer it. See you, Jacob. Take care.