AI CEO: ‘Stock Crash Could Stop AI Progress’, Llama 4 Anti-climax +‘Superintelligence in 2027’...

The latest on Llama 4, and whether it signals a slowdown in AI, or solid progress. Plus, a deep dive on that viral prediction of superintelligence by 2027, and Amodei’s cautionary words on what could stop AI progress in its tracks. o3 news, and more, as well.

Weights & Biases: https://weave-docs.wandb.ai/?utm_source=sponsorship&utm_medium=simple_bench&utm_campaign=ai_explained


DeepSeek Doc: https://www.patreon.com/posts/openai-is-not-r1-125869969

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
00:47 - Stock Crash 
02:28 - Llama 4
10:55 - o3 News
11:59 - OpenAI non-profit?
13:13 - AI 2027

Llama 4 Release: https://ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/

Dario Amodei Comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esCSpbDPJik

Knowledge Cut-off: https://www.llama.com/docs/model-cards-and-prompt-formats/llama4_omni/

Aider Polyglot: https://aider.chat/docs/leaderboards/

Gemini 1.5: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.05530

Fiction-LiveBench: https://fiction.live/stories/Fiction-liveBench-Mar-25-2025/oQdzQvKHw8JyXbN87

OpenAI Valuation: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/technology/openai-valuation-300-billion.html?login=smartlock&auth=login-smartlock

OpenAI Cybersecurity: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/openai-working-with-us-military-on-cybersecurity-tools-for-veterans

Deep research System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/deep-research-system-card.pdf

https://openai.com/index/paperbench/

AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/

METR Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499

OpenAI non-profit: https://openai.com/index/nonprofit-commission-guidance/

NYT Piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/ai-futures-project-ai-2027.html?unlocked_article_code=1.804._yKi.QhwOp15Q3tcU&smid=url-share&s=09

Kokotajlo predictions 2021: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

https://simple-bench.com/


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/