A Numbers Game | September 18, 2026 | Hour 2

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1:01Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about WeGovie, some Maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP 1. Call 1-8-3-3-4 WeGovie or visit WeGovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about WeGovie. Why wait? This is Vison V SportsBetting Network. The numbers told the story now is down. Swandles 80 to believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Yolanda Alexander on Vison. Our number two of a numbers game at Vison V SportsBetting Network Vison.com. Vison Plus I-Hart Radio YouTube TV series section, 1.89 GIL Alexander. The typing on his phone, Kelly Bidlett. What are you doing over there? Trying to get soccer bed in, bro. Fading all city. Back in all city. Fading, fading.

2:02That's right, fading. Is that rude? It's a little aggressive. Yeah. You're like a second Paul Cargot off and you're like, oh, they're going to suck now. I mean, I even asked him about. Yeah, you did. It's not that rude. It's okay. It's one of the parameters. Yeah. Still to come. New physics. Also Dr. Bob coming up on the show, looking forward to it and West Reynolds on college football. Can't wait for that. We get to eat speed of the book. I was appreciate everybody. Funny. Is really the North Star we're looking for, but anything. Read them all. No, I stirred the bills pot today. There are arguments just going back and forth on my Twitter. The numbers guys regarding the darts. Those are five guys who have never been in my kitchen. Young fellow hawk. Don't worry, Gail. I followed all of that. What's on second? Oh, the American leagues. It's the American leagues. It's because when I said the white sucks of the number two seed, I was getting pushback on it in my ear. At this moment, they would be the number two seed for the second best division win. Steve the proxy.

3:02Josh Allen has 10 games with two throwing and two rushing touchdowns. The next closest is Steve Young with four. Yeah. Josh Allen has 10. Let me read that again. Josh Allen has 10 games with two throwing and two rushing touchdowns. Feels like we'd have more than that already. But the fact that the next one is four, is that true? Just four total. That's amazing. That's amazing. Chris of St. Bart's summoning the Ghost of Pythagoras for help and the baseball season. Yeah, really. So with the guardians. Yeah. So the one with the, yeah, you're right. I'm wondering about that. Now, that's sad now too. Because the other one, you know, when you always bring up with Kyler Murray, the big Kyler Murray defense was that he, it was a 20 passing touchdowns 10 rushing touchdowns. It's him, Josh Allen and Kim Newton. I think that have only done that in a season. So yeah, I don't know the two and two. Anthony Trucolo. I would think there's more. Anthony Trucolo. If my memory serves me right, it was Willie Mays who made the comment about the 4040 club. Love the show. Keep up the good work. Thank you, Anthony.

4:03Willie Mays might have said something about it too, but Mickey Mantle's quote on it. He says he famously equipped about the 4040 club quote, if I'd known 4040 was going to be a big deal, I'd have done it every year on quote, right here, front of me. You know who I do own apology to though on something I did get completely wrong yesterday when crack was here. My, this is the, I holy Mandela effect on me on that two brothers 30 for 30. Vlade Devach, Drossen Petrovich. And I was just completely sure it was Vlade Devach and Tony Kucoach. You were the main focus of that. I never saw Kucoach was in it because I think he was their teammate, but it was really about Devach and Petrovich. I completely got that wrong. Like I would have just been completely convinced that it was Kucoach and Devach, but it was about Devach and Petrovich and the political fallout that occurred. It went when Devach's like snatched a flag from someone. It was just an amazing story. One of the great 30 for 30s of all time. Mariners Geek, Mori Povich and Connie Chung. Who knew Connie was Jewish? And then, oh, J.A. Jordan, Jordan, 23, 23, 4.

5:07Oh, he's conflating one thing I said and one thing you said. He says, Chiefs beat the Broncos by 21. Quote Broncos were only a few plays from the game being completely different. It's not exact quote, but yes, that was the directionally what I was talking about. And then Bill's beat the practice squad lions, defense by 10. Oh my God, Josh Allen. Well, that was Kelly who said that not me. He's trying to, he's trying to find a hypocrisy, but it's two different people saying two different things. Yeah, we're both hypocritical. That's right. No, no, neither of us is hypocriticals. Neither of us said both things. Yeah, I think I mean, I'm sure I'm the only person giving Josh Allen. Yeah, that's right. You're the only NFL defense, right? Like, I don't, I'm not sure where he was going with that. No, I'm gonna like, I get it. I get it to a degree. We sat here for a lot of time last year being like a page read. It's like they played nobody or they in the Super Bowl. We're just being objective. Like again, if you go through the, but they drive by drive of that Broncos game, that's how a lot of drives ended by things that are not really sustainable from week to week. And by the way, just a little bit, you know, my opinion, the extent to which you can be

6:11good at betting is to identify sustainable and non-sustainable. That's, you know, that's just us. Guy, I mean, it's speaking to sustainable. We didn't really get it too much into this. You did a little bit with just the lions in the second half, but like, yeah, the Bill's defense is going to be a probable season. That kind of goes back to the, the question I had for you, would you rather go MVP or, them to win the conference? MVP. Yeah, it's the Raven still exists. Yeah, she still exists. I mean, it's a huge two and no start for the Buffalo bills, but they got a couple games upcoming here that are big too. You, you said it, I seized on it. We emphasized it off air, but it's good to be, good to be emphasizing it on air, also, which is those Josh Allen plays where it's short yard. Oh, God, I'm glad you brought this back up. Yeah. And he's rolling out with the ball or he's, or he's, or it's a, you know, or it's one of those where he has an option. It is impossible to defend. And in a playoff situation, a hundred percent of the time he's just going to tuck it under the run, but it looks like early in the season, maybe they hide and we'll see how long this lasts throughout the season, maybe last the whole regular season,

7:12just to sort of amuse himself or to get his teammates involved. Yeah, he will often choose the past option, which got DJ more hurt. It's the whole NBA starting. Let me get the other players involved. But like, it happened three times last night, but you can't stop him. And DJ Moore got hurt on one of these plays. I mean, and this is for teams that like for people out there that want to be critical of Josh Allen, like, yeah, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, we bring up the lack of playoff success, the lap of super balls that they've been, these guys have been to, right? And usually, usually if you're defending one of these teams, you're like, well, these guys have no help, right? There's no help at receiver. So what you can't do in the regular season, Gil is get your wide receivers hurt because you're trying to be Mr. Nice guy sharing the ball. Like, it sounds like that's positive news for DJ Moore after last night. No more positive than it looked like in the moment that it's just going to be a sprain and he might be back pretty quickly here, but like, that could have been bad. We also neglected one tweet earlier.

8:12This is where the Sean Watson catches a stray. This is from sport. This is where from sports boy Tony have any Lima. Josh Allen has nine total touchdowns in five days, nine total touchdowns in five days. DeShawn Watson has eight total touchdowns in one thousand forty one days. That's Gil big very fair to. DeShawn Watson catching a straight. What I love is that sports boy Tony. That is your real name. He, uh, it occurred to him to make this and then he went to the calories. Like, I got this. I love it. I've got a brilliant idea. What is this? Is this a Buffalo fan or a Cleveland fan? This is definitely a Cleveland fan, right? Oh, I don't know. Who's just hating that he's had to live with DeShawn Watson. He's not a DeShawn Watson fan at all. Good. He's that. All right. Let's, let's whip around. Let's begin Sunday early window. All right. Rotation order. I'm going back to Packers and the Jets one PM Eastern time. Gill Alexander. I am seeing some juiced threes on my screen now for the Packers. 44 and a half is the total mainly three and a half.

9:14So out juice three is meaning down from three and a half. Yes. There are three one fifths. I see a three one seventeen at Caesar's Palace right now. I considered the Jets for a millions play. I ultimately really not. OK. This if I have memory serves and I believe 100% sure on this. I am 100% sure because I'm looking at the page now. This is one of Cleaves Megapod picks Jets. Jets three and a half. Jets were impressive week one. Man, I'm very interested to see what they look like against this Packers team. Packers, offensive line, banged up, continued to have problems last week. Man, they got to get they got to get their stuff together. That was an ugly game. You said earlier in the week though, this is one of those, you know, we talk about over reactions all week. This is one of those to me that falls on the category of I'm not sure we know anything about either team. Yes. I still think Jordan love is really good. I'm not sure what we learned about that last flourish by the Vikings of the Packers at all. It fell apart real quick and the Jets crossed the Titans. The Titans could be dreadful.

10:14The Titans could be one of the worst teams in the NFL. And like the Jets like I was making a bigger deal of them going into that game. Just like they might be one tier better than these like three or four teams that are at the absolute bottom. But I don't know how great they are next. I might be playing three with the Packers if it gets there fully. Okay, next one up on Eastern Vikings at the Bears. This is Bears 4 and a half to 5. Favorites 48. You're total. All right, this may shock you, but I had you know, millions has five plays, right? So you got to get you got to come over five. My fifth ended up being the Vikings plus four. Wow. I am shocked. Yeah. I couldn't. There was nothing else that I had, you know, again, when you, when you get past three and I had three real quick bets this week. And this is the difference between the mega pot and millions where mega pot has three millions has five every week. It does tend to really get exponentially more difficult as you go, right? Makes total sense. So my fifth pick, I'm like, I just trust. I would rather have my fifth pick put trust in Brian Flores to counter Ben Johnson.

11:21Then any of the other games, I do think that look, if Carson with the huge if obviously, right? He's going to have to get bailed out by officials a couple of times like he did last week. Also, I mean, obviously Carson went to the fly in the oymid air. Yeah. But I just, I do believe that if anyone can, you know, what's the old Dan Patrick? You can't stop the Chicago Bears offense. You can only hope to contain them. Well, I hope he can contain it, can contain them. And so four and a half points. I'll take it. Yeah, mixed results. I think I heard you're an Andy going over this on the deep dive podcast over just kind of what was Ben Johnson versus four as results kind of in the past. It was kind of a mixed bag of what you've seen so far. I understand it. I mean, I was making the case yesterday to somebody. The Carson Wentz, whatever you think about him is still such an upgrade over what was being rolled out at the quarterback position last year for the Vikings. Like just in week one, you saw it, right? It's like just in Jefferson just needs a professional quarterback out there to do his job. And Carson Wentz can do that.

12:22Um, Jefferson had a stainless one, the hell of a trio. Staying away from this one. I don't hate you for it though. Kyle Murray's been practicing. I don't think he's going to go, but it's kind of shocking. He's been out there. One Eastern Steelers at the Patriots, Patriots, four and a half to five and a half point favorites. 41 and a half. You're total Patriots ended up being my fourth Billions play. I am in on the Patriots that is a bet for me this week and played them in will be playing them in millions. So all y'all think I hate Drake May. I don't hate Drake May. I think he actually does well against the Steelers defense. I think the Steelers are a bad football team. I really do. I think the Patriots get this done home opener for them extra rest for the Patriots. Extra rest for the Patriots. Injuries real quick. Michael Pittman, Jr. questionable tag for this game of the foot injury. Joey Porter, Jr. Did not play last week looks like this is a holdout situation. I don't think he's playing again this week. And then Travion Henderson should make his debut for the Patriots. He's a Travion. AJ Brown, obviously, we'll continue through the NFL schedule, but first college football with

13:23Wes Reynolds making a Friday appearance on the show next right here on the numbers game at Vison. A flex car. We know podcast ads are annoying, but not as annoying as car salesmen. I'm here, please. Never talk to one again with flex car the first and only month to month car lease. No, submit to my extortion machine. Insurance and maintenance included switch cars anytime. Switching Bronco to Camry to tell you ride willing. Oh, no. Oh, yes, flex car. You drive everything. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. We go. Ask your prescriber about we gov some agglatine injection 2.4 milligrams, a G.O.P. One call 1 8 3 3 4 we gov or visit we gov.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about we gov. Why wait?

14:23We go. The number is game on Vison. These for spending network. This is underway. Still plenty of ways to win the edge boost average joke contest. Look how happy that dude is. Sprogged into five week quarter. So you don't need a hot start to be in the mix finish first in the weekly standings and edge boost to drop a thousand dollars into your count. As long as it's funded with at least a hundred dollars with your quarter and you say win your quarter. Pardon me. You get airfare for two to Las Vegas plus a two night stay at the circle resort. You can see no what a prize that is. And the overall average Joe champion locks in an automatic qualifier spot in the 2027. Circle Friday football invetational plus a Vegas trip at an in studio guest appearance on a Vison show free to play. And you can register any time during the season. Don't have an edge boost account yet. Sign up at edge boost.io with promo code Vison and make sure count is funded with at least one hundred dollars.

15:26Pardon me. Emotional about it. Anyway, contest the day at Vison dot com slash Joe that's Vison dot com slash Joe breaking NBA news. Keonte George getting paid in Utah five years. One hundred and fifty five million dollars. Is that what I sent you one hundred and fifty seven point five million dollars. What an NBA hard oh breaking news breaking that was. It is, but it's about it's about the NBA hard oh team that you better have your eyeballs on this year. Including Chris Foster. I sent this to and I got back this text message. Dude is a baller. But he's got to escape Utah somehow. You guys know, no, that's what bananas foster. That is what Chris bananas foster. Wait and we're talking. Keonte George, Aaron Peterson, Larry Mark and Jerry and Zach Jackson, Jr. Nurkish, Ace Bailey. This team's in the playoffs next year. Okay. I'm excited. All right. I mean, on over their win total just like everybody else. You and you and Matt Brown got that Detroit Pistons into the playoffs few years later. That's right. We nailed that prediction. Right. If you wait long enough, everything will happen.

16:26West Reynolds kind enough to join us on Friday. How about that? Yeah. West part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter at West Reynolds one. That's the number one. He comes to us courtesy of the progressive guest line. West, good morning to you, sir. Good morning, guys. Kelly reminds me of our old friend and colleague Jacob Roach talking about the Utah jazz. They're a good league past. Team. They're going to be a very fun league pass watch, which they will be. They've got a lot of young talent there. So should be fun. But man, I keep it like basketball is about the star. It's like I'm just getting in the football now and we got baseball. So this is the time of the year, man. It's the most fun, but it's the most busy for all of us. More excited fan base for the roster. Utah jazz or Washington wizards. Utah jazz. Utah jazz. Okay. Good question though. Wizards. Those are going to be up. Yeah. Wizards people are probably like we've been here before. Oh, yes. Yes. Every year, this is going to be the start of the turnaround in the district. Yeah. Meanwhile, someone's been telling, telling Laurie marketed for like four years now.

17:29I'm like, don't worry. We're building a team around you. Don't go anywhere. Go anywhere. All right, West College football. Let's begin with the one you have on the bottom here on the screen. That's off air here. LSU Ole Miss Sam Levin upgraded a questionable. Oh, that was fun. You have a play on the total. How do you think this goes? Yeah, we don't think Lane Kiffin's playing some games here and trying to add, you know, just put a little bit more on the fire here just to add to it, which is the feature game of the week. Of course, on Saturday night, I played the over. I think Levin is going to play. And this team Ole Miss, I think, has to go up and down in order to keep up with this team. Because if you watched Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago against really, they're only a opponent of no playing Louisville. Their secondary is pretty darn leaky. So they're going to have to score a lot of points, I think, to stay with LSU. And Lane Kiffin, I also think, knows how to attack this Ole Miss defense, you know, with Pete Golding, being his form record, and so Lane Kiffin, you would think as a play collar, whatever you think of him personally.

18:32He is a pretty good play designer and offensive skimmer. He's going to be able to attack this defense. So, you know, it's kind of public, you know, over in a prime time, you know, stand alone, national game, but that's where I'm going here. I just don't see any way Ole Miss is going to hang on this game unless they just go up and down the field with these guys. I just want to ask one follow-up off the field question about this. This is sort of like inside broadcasting, inside journalism thing. Because Kelly and I were talking about this when Levin first came down as doubtful. And again, allowing for the fact that Lane Kiffin, very capable of shenanigans with that, we couldn't believe, I'm think I'm speaking for a guy here. We couldn't believe that in like hard news articles, though. They were so willing to say, yeah, the language of the suspicion is, though, that, you know, there could be, I'm paraphrasing, that there could be something foul taking place here, that this is not legit. I just couldn't believe they added that. They must have known with some degree of confidence that this was complete hogwash from the beginning to include that.

19:38Would you agree? I would agree. And look, and it seems like a lot of, you know, the press, maybe they've become numb to constant BS and in a variety of different areas in life and society. So look, they're putting it out there now. I mean, you know, this isn't, well, this is, you know, because they're always really careful. Where it's like, you know, you remember the sound bites on the news. We're like, some say that, you know, this and they're careful. They're very careful. Keeping it in opinion. Now they don't care. They don't care. It's really amazing. It's wild. It is wild. Yes, there's a reason why I have written the word allegedly 90 times more in my life and career than I is actually needed because you just try to be careful. You want to make, you want to play it safe. You'd rather be, you'd rather be wrong, but report what you know in the end, right? Like, it is, it was a little shy. Because on the off chance that 11 did not plan was legitimately hurt. Wow, that's a bad article to have. Yeah. Very bad. Like casting dispersions on or casting down on it.

20:39All right. This is not LSU Ole Miss in terms of Marquim Acha, but Houston, Texas, tech ain't bad tonight. A lot of people think Texas, Texas, gonna go a long way this year. How are you playing this one? Good Friday night, okay? Yeah. And Texas, tech actually, it's hard to say because you've only played two games, but there probably be seen, I guess, as an early season disappointment, because there's a lot of expectations down there. And they're spending a lot of money down there and love it. For a big time roster, they want to be a major playoff contender. And, you know, they're in the big 12 where they may only get one team. And by the way, I was going through this schedule, Tim Murray and I were on the college football podcast. You can still get that, by the way, at Vison.com or wherever you get your podcast, plug, plug. But we were talking about these schedules here with Texas Tech. This could be the only ranked team that these guys get, because the big 12 is so wild. And like we only know two or three teams that we think are going to be pretty good and two of them are playing tonight down there in Lubbock. But we don't know the rest of the conference yet how that's going to shake out.

21:40And this went from nine and a half. This was the opener, right? And it went down to six and a half. And then you started to see some buy on Texas Tech. I actually bought it at seven. I'd still play a little seven and a half. Joey McGuire, the head coach of Texas Tech, is a seven or more point favorite. 12 and three against the number eight. No at home. So, you know, that supports that. And I think that this is kind of a by-low spot on a favorite that looks like a weak favorite in the market. Because Houston might have a little bit of that if you want to call it public dog mantra on them tonight. Because Texas Tech does not look sharp to start the season. They both played Oregon State. I thought probably if you compare those two games, Houston looked a little bit better against Oregon State than certainly Texas Tech did. They were, it was a four point game, if like two minutes ago. And then Tech, Tech down one late. But I'm going with our buddy Ryan Hyatt and his red raider. So, guns up for Texas Tech today. Let's go. Ryan Hyatt, shout out to the great Ryan Hyatt. Amen. Okay. Michigan quote unquote beats Western Michigan.

22:43We are told now by the by the authorities that they should not have won the game. I think we all kind of knew that. And then they beat Oklahoma last week. I don't know what to make of that game. They certainly frustrated John Mateer. I'm not sure what your ultimate takeaway was from Michigan's seven point win over Oklahoma. Utah is a massive dog at Michigan here. 35 point dog. What are your thoughts? What is your bet? I had Michigan last week, but they certainly weren't impressive. I just think maybe they kind of outtuffed them a little bit. And they took advantage of the mature turnover. And they they ran underwood more because he's still not there. Gill in the passing game. He does, I think nine of 17. Yeah. Last week. And you know, I wonder what the game plan is going to be for Michigan here because you're off that big win where you kind of rebound and shut up some critics. But you got Iowa coming in for the big 10 open or next week, which probably going to be like a low scoring like almost an army navy type of game. So I wonder how much they're really wanting to lay the wood to Utah here.

23:45And Utah, of course, played Oklahoma in week one, lost 51 and nothing. So this is one of those Hold Your Noses where it's kind of the calm before the storm, where they get into the meat of the conference schedule. And all of a sudden, you got a team that's not that sharp. We saw that a little bit with Ole Miss against Charlotte last week where they never even approached the number because obviously they had the big game this week on deck. So that applies actually to a couple. And that's another one for UTSA at Texas getting about 30, 30 and a half. Texas, the big comeback win against Ohio State. And now they have UTSA before Texas has to go to Tennessee. Next Saturday night for their SEC opener. So some of these big favorites, I think maybe going to be a little sleepy in this spot. Sandwich spot. Look ahead spot. Yep. We love spots. I know that's so cliche. But I think it applies here. We're just echoing Matt Brown famous rant on a prime time action from somebody years ago. And then finally, we alluded to Western Michigan. You have a play in the Western Michigan rice game.

24:47I do have rice plus nine and a half Western Michigan. Kind of a tricky spot for these guys. Look, they got right against Monmouth. Now they got to go play in that Houston Heat late Saturday afternoon, early Saturday night. Rice got shut out at Notre Dame. But they held Notre Dame knowing about 118 yards. I'm trying to find a glimmer of hope and a 52 enough and defeat. Western Michigan, by the way, has Boise State coming to Kalamazoo to Waldo, Heraldo, Faldo, Stadia. And there's a pop culture reference for you, Gil. Don't get a big opponent in Kalamazoo very often. Maybe a little bit of a tricky spot at Rice on Saturday. Wes, you're awesome. Appreciate the appearance. Appreciate the time, man. Thank you. You bet, fellas. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody on college football. We'll do more NFL week two next. And then Dr. Bob here on a numbers game. A numbers game on Beeson. These sports betting network. Most people think sports betting is about picking winners. Ungambled is built on a different idea, matched betting in arbitrage.

25:48It's a tool that teaches you how to use sports mode bonuses and promotional offers to capture value, whether or not your side covers and ungambled backs it up. If you don't turn a profit on your bankroll in eight weeks, they refund your membership. To learn more, start with the free guide at ungambled.com slash V-syn. That's ungambled.com slash V-syn. And use promo code V-syn for 10% off. Bet sharp. Look, square. Can I send a shout out to, uh, right? I believe his name is Jared. He reached out to me on Twitter. It's not Jared. I, I, I, I sincerely apologize. But, uh, Derek, uh, Derek Stevens texted the other day. He said, oh, I've met a couple guys from the San Francisco Police Department. Super nice guys. They wanted me to pass on this patch to you. So I just want to say thank you to those guys. San Francisco Police Department. Keeping us all safe and, and, and cool in San Francisco. That's awesome. Yeah. Appreciate that. I don't know. You started telling me that story yesterday. I didn't, I didn't know that's where exactly that was coming from. That's great. Three jock three, uh, three jock H3131. Kill who can we petition at MLB to announce awards sooner than Reagan Thanksgiving? He says this miss. I, young ticket is burning a hole in my pocket.

26:50You'll get it. You'll be buying stuffing when you, when you finally make that money. But yeah, you'll get it. James Sott, our boy sports boy Tony Othie, Dishonel Watson, uh, Josh Allen comparative, uh, tweet earlier. He said he's one of our sweet morning sports hosts in Cleveland. And he wanted Watson so to die. And now we all see the horror of it all. Okay. That's nice. It's a me a koopa. Ia, oh yeah. S69. Hey, what's happened to Ia? Oh, you've been a while. He says I'm a lion's fan. Lions have given up 73 points. However, the bills have given up 61 points. Is Josh Allen going to be Superman the entire season? Can you trust Josh Allen? The playoffs, Kelly? Yeah. All right. So the second one, this is where I'm like, I'm not going to, I'm not going to be phony with you guys. The second question. I don't, I don't, I hope so. This year, I hope so for all her sake. What was the first, the first part of the question? Can I trust the ball season? Yes. You can't because the guy doesn't get hurt. He plays and he's going to do it one way or one way or the other ball by himself. Unlike Jared Goff, sorry, but that's the difference. Ivy, M-I-V 24, long live the sports center anchor catchphrases. Kenny Maine, probably the goat.

27:51It's never iffy if it's griffy. That's a Homer Simpson because the pitcher just said, don't. Yeah. The Kenny Maine's so good. You know, I've had the best ones. It was a kill board back in the day. Yeah. Yeah, he was good. That's just George being George. Jumanji. Bobby Getty's listening from your old stomping grouts today. Gil staying in my parents in laws house down in Laurel Merrill and to go to the Terps game tomorrow. Gil, you love it. I work in the basement. It's basically just a mini red skis museum. He just showed me this gem. He bought it in the 70s. It's a nice little piece of art with sunny jerkets and thrown over Brad Van Pelt. I believe that is. Len Haas, the center there for his kids. Mickey Monkey, man. Gil pulling out the old timey hogwash is so great. Driving the age demo down segment by segment. Hey, stop with my demo humor. Origin of hogwash. You guys are the best. Origin of hogwash. I actually think I know this. They used to like the hundreds, centuries ago. They used to feed pigs like the disgusting ref, you know, just remains of your food.

28:51And it's sloppy and it's gross. And that was hogwash. They called it hogwash. Really? Yeah. I thought you were going to go with like, and then they got to clean the pigs off. No, that's like the left over water. No, it was the gross stuff. The gross stuff. They fed them. Gross. If you think about it, you better not have it. Talking about, uh, man, what movie was it when I was explaining to crack a few weeks ago, the pig. It takes 12 pigs, Bricktop. Bricktop. What movie guys? Come on. Takes pig. 12 pigs can eat through a human body in eight hours. There's always feed them to the pigs. Oh, I don't know. Yeah. We were talking about it with crack for a little bit. Okay. I don't remember that. All right. Let's continue with week. Because we got Dr. Bob coming. We got Steve Fezik coming. So we got to continue with week two in the national football. Yes, we do. Fun golf news real quick. The Alejandro Toasty. If you're, if you know, PGA tour, you know, Toasty's quite a character. It's kind of like Nick Kerios. Is his caddy just quit on the middle of the round apparently yesterday. Yesterday, yesterday. Hold on. It just walked off the course. You know, that's interesting because, uh, the, uh, I won't make. Toasty who's have many run-ins

29:53and problems with caddies over the years. I won't make it, I won't make it obvious. So I'll, you know, I'll give you a time frame. That's interesting. Because we have had a guest on a numbers game in the last week or two. Okay. That right after their appearance on this show. Basically quit on their boss. We had nothing to do with it. We had nothing. It's very important to point that out. Nothing to do with it. Nothing to do with it. Nothing we did. Is just like great appearance. And then he just went crazy on. Yeah. Yeah. That was for the boss one crazy on him. Sprung, maybe it was mutual. Yeah, there's a lot of people. No, no. That was interesting. No, that was interesting. All right. Early window panthers at the Falcons. Panthers two and a half point. Road favorites here. Total 43 and a half to 44. This is the one that not only came to me. A lot of these lines came to me from my guess that we talked about Monday morning on guessing lines. I submit to Kelly Sunday. Mm-hmm. And you said from the time I submitted them Sunday to Monday morning, they came my direction. This one went through mine. This is the game I want no part of. One game on the megapod. Write the game you want no part of. If you had to bet every other game.

30:54Panthers Falcons, I have no idea. Because I still hold this notion that the Falcons have enough talent that they could be to team like the Panthers on any given day. It's a home game for the Falcons for God's sakes. But if the Panthers ran them out of the building, I wouldn't be surprised either with Cooper Rush here. I completely agree with everything you just said. It does sound like it will be Cooper Rush that's good to go. I think there are some pieces on that land team in book Carolina. I mean, they scored a lot last week. So I'm okay with you. I feel like you're confident in that offense. Browns at bucks, bucks eight and a half, 41 and a half. Okay, as we discussed earlier, survivor play on the bucks. Yep. But bucks three Baker Mayfield fumbles last week that had more than anything to do with the outcome of that game against the Bengals. Obviously, I don't think that happens here. I think the Buccaneers. If the Buccaneers are any good, right? If you have a bullish feeling on the Buccaneers, if there anything like you think they are, they must win the football game. But I am not laying the points nor am I taking them. I think I think this is the best teaser leg of the week. Getting this down to two and a half.

31:55Understand that I would not I would be a little nervous laying the full eight and a half as well. Just don't know. Maybe the Browns defense actually shows up this week. It's a low scoring game eight and a half. A lot to cover. I like it as a teaser leg, though. We'll be in survivor. Still in the early window, Bengals at the Texans were sitting. Shout out to Steve Fessick. We're sitting about 2.75 everywhere on this game. It is a two and a half with heavy juice on the Texans side. Total 45 and a half to 46. I bet the Texans. I bet I'm at three reduced juice now. It's two and a half extra juice. I do think the Texans ran into Josh Allen. That's another thing. Now that we see, if you do the whole transitive property thing, you can make a lot of conclusions based on the last night's game, the first game of the week two games, which is, okay, the bills are just going to go to town on everybody. So the Texans defense, I completely expect a bounce back here. Right. And you can also say about the Lions. If the Lions defense is that bad,

32:55how good can we really feel about the Saints come back when they play the Ravens, which is not the game we're talking about now, but you can start to make those kinds of assessments. Anyway, I'm on the Texans. I think they bounce back defensively against this Bengals team that was very fortunate with the Bucks turnovers. I got the Texans minus three. Yeah, Nico Collins injuries concerning to me. Hamstring, nothing official on him yet, but it sounds, it sounds like it's not trending well. Joe Burrow back at practice today. So that's big. I did bet the under yesterday on this game based off of all that injury news that was going around. Okay, next one, Saints at Ravens. Eight and a half to nine point favorites, 46 to 47 year total. Yeah, not that I think the Bengals won't score, but I think the Texans make enough stops to witness. Saints at Ravens, I just said that thing about the, you know, the transitive property. If Detroit's defense is that bad, then maybe it's not that amazing that the Saints scored all those points. And by the way, the Saints could have scored even more in the first half.

33:56They were just dropping passes a couple times. But I think the Ravens are the best team in football. I am not land. I am not taking that. I have nothing to do with this game anyway. Although as a tease or like, the Ravens are certainly a possibility. Ravens are that leg teased with the Bucks for me like that there. I might end up on the over here as well, but I the transit property thing. I think it's fair to bring up with the Saints team. The over and then we went over that ridiculous trend earlier on the week about the Saints first quarter, first half in abilities. I think I'm going to be adding Ravens first quarter here too. Okay, last early window game, Eagles at the Titans, Eagles just been seven basically all week. Total at 39 and a half. I guess seven and a half. I can't believe it never went to seven and a half. I'll say to get I got the Eagles and millions. I got the Eagles in a bet. I do not know how the Titan score. Yep, under for me from early in the week I'm with you there. I think I think we see seven and a half before we kick off. Titans team total under by Will was a great bet this week. That's a good one too. Okay, 405 Eastern Raiders at Chargers. We are pretty much six and a half everywhere now in this game.

34:5843 and a half is your total. Chargers and acceptable, acceptable survivor play. It is a is the proverbial must win situation for the charges. I'm not playing in the survivor. I don't think I don't think. But this is the proverbial must win situation because they lost the Cardinals and the gauntlet schedule begins next week. Millions play for me might be a bet on the Chargers. I think there's a really good chance we're sitting here Monday being like, oh, man, I was the easiest layup of the week. We missed it. 405 Eastern Jagsett Broncos Broncos mainly two and a half go 2.75 on this one as well. 45 and a half. You're total. I'm on the Broncos. No need to blabber it. I went through it at nausea. I think that outcome against the Chiefs is very deceiving. I think the Broncos defense like the Texas defense bounces back here. I think the Broncos under three here minus two and a half. That's I couldn't believe it. I made the bet. I think this is the game of the week and I'll be happy sitting on the sidelines just watching here. I think these are two teams. I'm very high on long term. Yeah. Don't really I got some questions. Jags might be great, but they played clean, but we don't know. Yep, absolutely. Okay.

35:58425 Eastern Seahawks at the Cardinals Seahawks. They're going to have to four and a half point. Favorite train now 40 and a half, 41. You're told nothing for me, but we had a lot of Arizona plus the points this week with Drew Lock, helping for the Seahawks. Now I was one of those, but I bet it on open at like six and a half at current numbers. I think I'd be passing. Those are the only three after-noong games. Dolphins of 49ers. Oh, yeah. 49ers survivor. 49ers. But they are coming back from Australia, so I'm not laying the point. Primetime game. We'll do the Primetime games and Doctor Bob next on a numbers game. I think we should have an open relationship. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Let's definitely do that. With our cars. Oh, Flexcar. Yeah, that's what I meant, too. Flexcar is the first and only month to month Carly's. Swing from a Wrangler one month to a Prius the next. Flexcar, you drive everything. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time.

36:59Ask your prescriber about WeGovie, some Maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 1-8334 WeGovie or visit WeGovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about WeGovie. Why wait? WeGovie. A numbers game on Beeson. These sports betting network. Back on numbers game live from Circa Resort, Casino, Dattel, Las Vegas, Gil Alex, and Kelly Billin. Yo, everybody letting you know on Twitter that the movie you were referring to was Guy Richie's Snatch. That's right. Classic. Can't believe I forgot that. Do you like to do the imitation again before we move on? The easiest way I hear the dispose of a body is to curl up into six pieces. Can't do it. Brick top's a legend. To great scene. I didn't understand a word in that movie. It's a tough one. Yeah.

37:59Tough one. Language barrier. You know how this not speaking English? This is a bad pit with the gypsies. They can't understand a word that they're saying. It's great. Our next guest will be here for his beloved Cal Bears game against UNLV early October. We're all going out to that one. There we go. Yeah. I think Joe Pita's in the house for that as well. It's Dr. Bob, everybody, a legend in the business. You can follow him on Twitter at DRBobSports. DRBobSports.com. He joins us now courtesy the Progressive Guestline. Bob, good morning, sir. Good morning, sirs. By the way, nice job on Monday, strolling on in here, talking Chief Spronkos, and you're like, yeah, lean under. Bang. Nice job. Yeah, the only, you know, the only reason I didn't make it, I had a lean on the only reason I didn't make it a, like a half unit or a full unit bet was because I really thought that Kansas City's authentic chance to be really good this year. Well, that played out except Denver's office was so bad. It's still under. Okay, I love the game that you're focusing on this week is, I mean, there's a lot of games that sort of puzzle people,

39:02but the Vikings are at the Bears. And this has been Johnson going up against Brian Flores, perhaps most notably, but the Bears coming off that just high scoring affair, crushing the Panthers 59-37 scored a lot, gave up a lot. Vikings with that epic comeback against the Packers last week, with Carson, well Carson Wentz under center. Four and a half points, Brent and favor the Bears, totals 48 to the floor is yours, sir. Yeah, I like the under. There's been an overreaction to, you know, Chicago's, you know, Carolina scored 96 points. I mean, obviously Chicago's offense played great, but they were eighth to ninth, depending on the metrics you're looking at in offense last season. I don't think you go from eighth to ninth to the best offense of all time, as, you know, head coach Ben Johnson has stated as his goal this season, that might go to Buffalo. But I have the Bears ranked third offense list. I do think they're better this year and obviously in the lead offense. I haven't been behind Buffalo and Baltimore. So that's the third best offense in the league.

40:02But I do not expect to shoot out this week. You mentioned Brian Flores. He's a very creative defensive coordinator, lots of blifting, lots of different looks. He's pretty much kept Caleb Williams and checked two years ago, and they had a different coaching staff. Chicago only averaged 19.5 points per game in the two games against Minnesota. But even last year when they had Ben Johnson as their head coach and in a new offense and they were scoring a lot of points, they still only averaged 21.5 points and 319 total yards per game in two games against Minnesota. So the Minnesota has held the Bears in check the last few years. And in general, Flores has done a good job against teams coming off, you know, high scoring games or against good teams. First of all, in general, the Vikings have been a 60% under team since Flores became the defense coordinator, including 24 and 14 under when the total 42 points are higher. And they've gone under and eight of the last nine games against an opponent coming

41:05off a better than average offensive performance, which is 24 points or more. The Bears, meanwhile, seven and two under last season after scoring more than 24 points, including five and one under the week after scoring 30 points or more. All six of those games after they scored 30 points or more, they scored 25 or less. And they're going to need to score at least 25, probably to go over in this game. As far as the Minnesota offense, and it scored a lot of points against Green Bay, 30, 39, but that was a mirage. I mean, Minnesota had a 39% success rate, which would have ranked third, you know, worse than the league, you know, Green Bay would have been third worst in the league last year. So Minnesota, I'm sorry, Minnesota's defense held Green Bay to a 39% success rate, which would have been third worst in the league last year. And Minnesota's offense didn't actually do much either with Carson Went. They were super conservative. And they really slowed the pace down last week.

42:061.9 plays per minute is really slow. And, you know, that's kind of balanced out by the fact that Chicago plays a fast pace. But you're not, I don't think you're going to get a typical Bears game with extra possessions, because one team is trying to slow it down, and Chicago may still try to run a fast pace, but it's going to be balanced out by what Minnesota is doing. I do expect Carson Wentz to be back at quarterback this week. Murray's questionable, but most players, the first week in concussion protocol, do not end up playing. But even at Murray players, I still like the under Wentz is not a bad back up. He's, I haven't about one and a half points worse than Murray. Most of that because of Murray's running, passing wise, they're probably about the same. But Minnesota with Wentz, although they scored all those points, they had a slightly negative EPA per play last week, and just a 36% success rate, which is very, very low. So the 39 points that they scored are completely, completely in mirage. They only had 250 of totally hearts, which is 29th out of the 32 teams last week.

43:07They were just better on third downs than expected, better in red zone efficiency than expected. That stuff is random. I don't expect that to repeat itself. And Chicago's defense, obviously, not looking very good. They weren't good last or even though they had all those turnovers, and they weren't good last week against the Panthers. But usually there's an overreaction of these kind of games with a lot of points. In fact, in over 800 games since 1980, the under is 53% blind when a team is coming off a game in which they scored 35 points or more on offense. And the total point in that game was 65 points or more. That includes a super overreaction in week two. It's 34 and 18 under. If that high scoring game happened in week one, the week two game is 34 and 18 under for those teams. I mean, that's not the reason. I like the under. I just kind of mentioned it to prove my point of not to overreact to one week of high scoring and bad defense. But I like the under because floors is good to fit the coach.

44:08My updated rating only project 44 points in what looks like really bad weather. Wind in the teams, possibly some rain. They're playing on a grass field, the vision opponent. The vision games tend to be a little lower scoring as well. So I think there's a lot of things pointing toward the under here. And I like under 48 points or more. I released it when it was under 49 and a half on Monday morning. But still, even at 48 and a half or 48, which is where it sits now, I still like, if you have 48 and a half, because I think as this weather gets confirmed, that it's going to be bad weather, I think it might probably settle at 48. So either way, I like under 48 or higher under 48 points or more Vikings and bears. I hope people caught what what Bob always does. It's always his model that he bases stuff on along with a complimentary, what he calls technical analysis, which is really a database with trends. And he doesn't take that, you know, sacredly, but it often corroborates.

45:09It often takes him off bets. It's always fascinating to hear the process. Speaking of which, let me just ask you a macro question here, Bob. What do you think is the thing, the people who bet on the NFL? And as you anecdotally, if you casually hear people in their NFL thoughts, what do you think the average better, what's their biggest, what's the most common mistake? What do they overrate? What do they underrate when hand drops? I think they still, even to this day, I still think they overrate points. I mean, I don't use points at all in a hand and back model. I mean, if you know, points are highly variable, like I said, I mean, you know, Minnesota is just scored 39 points on 250, something to a few yards. I mean, 257 to all the yards will get a team averaging about 16 points. It gave me the course of a season. So they still tend to overreact to points more than more than they should. They underestimate injuries, I think a lot, especially, you know, some defensive injuries, offensive line injuries tend to be underestimated.

46:11They don't look at that. They're fantasy football, you know, most casual bettors are playing fantasy football and all they're thinking is fantasy points. Fantasy points is not real football and fantasy points usually didn't take much defense into account. So when the defensive injuries are piling up like Detroit and their secondary is all banged up, they don't take it into account as much as they probably should. So that's probably not interesting. And fantasy points are not real football, Kelly, write that down. We might be able to use that. They're like a fantasy. Yeah, interesting. All right, Bob, and you alluded this earlier. We have one minute, but you alluded to earlier. Can you give us your top three defenses and your top three offenses? Oh, God, I have to look at my spreadsheet. Real top three offenses. I already mentioned Buffalo Baltimore in Chicago. Just updated my ratings. Let's see top three defenses. By the way, for those shopping. I feel like Seattle Houston and then Baltimore. Seattle Houston Baltimore. So I'm guessing you have so then overall I'm guessing you have Baltimore number one. Yes, I do Baltimore number one. I still have the Rams number two.

47:12And San Francisco just squeaked up to number three. And how much of this is your priors and then when do when do those slough off? I tend to mostly mostly priors. I have a range with priors like I say with Kansas City. Well, I like they're often going to put it here maybe a little lower, you know, maybe around market, but I have a thesis that Kansas City's offense could be a lot better with their enemy back. They showed that so I raised Kansas City a little bit more based on one game that I wouldn't normally about it. But I'm 10% bomb based on week one. I love it. A little dash of art to the science. Maybe a little more than a little dash, which is always why I love here. What Bob asked to say. Bob, you're the best. Appreciate it. We'll see you next little talk to you next week and then I'll see you in a couple weeks. All right, buddy. My man, Dr. Bob everybody at drbopsports.com at drbopsports on Twitter. The best there ever was Steve Fesick on the other side. I'll do numbers game right here at Visa.