A Numbers Game | January 28, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00a number is called the story of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander. Good Wednesday morning to you. This is a numbers game at these sports betting network. Visin.com Game plus I heart radio YouTube TV and of course, series next to channel 158. It's Kill I like Xander. It's Danny Higgins once again in four Kelly Bidlin who's still suffering from the migraine a little better today, little better today. I spoke to him yesterday. I think you just need one more day. You all ready to go for Thursday. Kelly was like, I don't want to do 10 days of Super Bowl 60. Let me get a migraine up in here. Yeah. We hope Kelly gets better and is back tomorrow in the chair. Poor kid with the migraises. That's that's tough. We will try to make it do in his in his absence. Today on the show, we'll hill with all of his bets, Super Bowl 60 and beyond. We'll also hear from Warren sharp a little later on Super Bowl 60. Tady Wischneff in the his a little later with his college hoops Paul car with a little champions league and

1:03Greg Peterson, a little later this hour talking college hoops with us by the way, Nick Whalen as well on the show talking Super Bowl and NBA with us. Greg Peterson going to have to ask him about this game last night between Nebraska and Michigan, where Nebraska basically led the whole way almost the whole way. And then Michigan clips him at the end. Nebraska without without two of their two of their better scores in the game as well. And yet they comport themselves very well. I almost feel better about Nebraska after the loss that I didn't even before. It gives it gives me some Indiana vibes, Indian football vibes, right? Traditional basketball school wins the wins the football championship, traditional football school now just now knocked from the ranks of the undefeated. But man, comported themselves very well yesterday in a game where a lot of people thought they're going to get blown off the court. So we'll talk to Greg about that. And oh, this for God's sakes, how did I not lead with this? Later, ladies and gentlemen, um, let me just say this half times, usually we've done a little cottage

2:08industry here on a numbers game, beating the book podcast betting door before that about doing half times Bruno Mars, Katie Perry, whatever they were through the years, we used to catch big on these things. I'm going to sit here and tell you, maybe I got old on this one. But, um, I don't know anything about bad money. I don't and I'm not going to sit here and act like I do because my ear doesn't even hear the difference between some of these songs. That's how non-bad money is I am. I'm going to agree with you. I don't know too much about him. So I don't know which song is going to be first. I think that's just one of those things we're going to have to get the intel three days before when there's a rehearsal two days before and they go from there. But we have a full national anthem breakdown later in the show. Oh, yeah. Charlie, Charlie Puth singing the national, singing the national anthem will be over 122 seconds. Two minutes and two seconds for those who need the conversion or under 122 seconds. The juice is on the over. We'll talk about this a way too deep dive. Is that a thing way too deep of a dive on the Super Bowl national anthem

3:12with Charlie Puth singing it good for the good for Charlie Puth. By the way, you familiar with Charlie Puth's works a little bit not too much. I know the name. I just I say per se, but I'm not super familiar with he is a musical genius. So we'll talk about that later on the show. Oh, and I got a chime in on Belicec at some point. Oh, yeah. Maybe even at the time. Oh my god. First tennis. Let's talk tennis. Ladies and gentlemen, yesterday, uh, this is there are there are bad beats and then there are bad beats that you will probably remember forever because of the nature of the bad beat. Uh, we had a we had a couple of matches yesterday. We had a couple quarters on the line. If you follow it all the place here. So on the matches, we end up splitting for really modest, uh, gain ego loses to Elena Rabakina. Rabakina just the better player. Uh, so we lost on that one. Ego is a slight dog. And then we wad on Jesse Pagula who beat fellow American Amanda Nisimova. Jesse Pagula now the only American left in either of the semi finals at the Australian Open the first slam of the year. So we we get the

4:16small gain on the matches, but we hit the quarter on Jesse Pagula. So everybody who, uh, bet Pagula with his Q three four to one odds bang. That's a winner for us. We also continue with Pagula now to win the whole thing. We have her 31 to one as well. So that remains alive. But but the quarter caches the other quarter we had on the line. I didn't I didn't back this up with a bet yesterday. I didn't want to double. I doubled up on Pagula, but I wasn't willing to double up on Musetti Lorenzo Musetti, uh, because he was facing Novak Djokovic. And you know, it was good enough to let the quarter ride for me, even though I thought there was value on on Musetti's number yesterday. Well, what did we say? Drew Dinsik was on yesterday. We both sort of said, even if Musetti goes up to sets to nothing, uh, to sets the to none, we are not going to be all that confident because Novak Djokovic is on the other side of the court. What we did not anticipate was how it's went down Musetti up to sets to nothing yesterday over Novak. And then at the beginning of the third set, all of a sudden you can see the leg is bothering him.

5:21I don't know if it's a groin. I don't know what the story was. It was not quite clear what part of what part of the leg is from when's the injury comes. But it was apparent he couldn't move. And then of course Novak breaks him because he can't move and Novak sees this. So Novak 38 years old and done for in this match. He admitted as much afterwards. He goes, I was, I was leaving. I was, I was going to be done. Um, Musetti can't continue. We come one set away from hitting our plus 650. By the way, I had a straight nine to one on it too. But plus 650 was the, was the official bet on Lorenzo Musetti to win quarter three. And I will probably remember this turn. This tournament ends up being a profitable one on matches. Not the most profitable ever. I almost take more pride in this one being profitable at all because it was so chalky that you had to be really precise on which underdogs you hit through this tournament. So I'm pumped about that. We also now with the Pagula quarter win. The futures are, are a wash at best, right?

6:26Or a wash at worst now at this point because even if we lost all the other futures that it's a wash, we saw Pagula going to win the whole thing at 31 to one. Um, pardon me. But man, if Musetti wins the quarter, which he's on the custom of doing and, and Jokovic admits as much that it's about to happen, what a great tournament. This will be, I'll always remember it for the Musetti injury now. That's, yeah. It's, it's, it's a brutal way to go down. Um, we do have one play today though at the Australian Open the semi finals. This might end up being my last match play for the Australian Open. I don't know, but I'm thinking it could be. I'm on Pagula again versus Elena Rabakina. So the women turn around and play the semis today. The men's semis are tomorrow and the men still have, I still has Yonic center going up against Jokovic. Still has Carlos Alcaraz going up against Sasha Zverev. As Drew said, the men's tournament starts on February 1st, once the finals. But I have Pagula at plus one 81 versus Elena Rabakina in the semi tonight. Rabakina was great yesterday. When she is on, she is tough to beat, but like with Iga, this is a numbers play for me.

7:31And Jesse Pagula should not be plus one 81, the two of them are three, three lifetime. Rabakina won the last, the most recent two of these, but those were indoor hards and those indoor hard courts are faster than what this Australian Open hard court surfaces. This is a very moderate hard court surface in Melbourne. I love Pagula plus one 81 to get it done against the Elena Rabakina could be the final Australia and open play of the tournament. But there it is. That's just the mousetti thing. It's just brutal. Let's go Pagula. Let's go. Let's go. Let's do it. All right. Um, should we talk about this billbell check thing real quick? Oh, yeah. Okay. Um, before we get into all the guests, billbell check for those of course, in case you've been trapped under a heavy object was not voted was not voted into the NFL Hall of Fame on the first battle yesterday. That was the reporting of Seth Wickersham and Don Van Nade. That billbell check failed to get the requisite 40 out of 50 80% of the votes needed to be put it on the first

8:33ballot. So that means at least 11 of 50 11 of 50 at the very least said nah, we're good. Make him wait a year. I'm putting words in their mouth, but I think that's what they're saying, right? Now, I just want to say that I'm going to be a little more nuanced than most before I jump on everybody's, you know, jump, jump on the side of everybody else. This is exactly the, I'm going to be consistent with what I say about Barry Lamar bonds and baseball, right? I do it every year about Barry Lamar bonds and baseball. It's like it put them in. And then if you want to put a plaque that says, I was alleged to have taken performance enhanced drugs, right? With billbell check, you can say, put them in. There was spy gate. There was deflate gate, right? There was all these things, but good God put them in. Now, I want to say that this is not the same as bonds because bonds isn't comparable billbell check. I just want to say this. The guy on the trophy, Vince Lombardi, was not a first ballot guy either. He was a, he was not made a, he was a first ballot. He got in when he was a finalist. The next year, same with Joe Gibbs, right? Who won three super balls with

9:37three rando quarterbacks compared to billbellic checks, Tom Brady. He was not put in on the first ballot either. It was the next time when he was put in as a finalist. So it's not unprecedented, right? The only, you know, the, who are some examples of the first ballot guys, Don Shula, Chuck Nell, Tom Landry. So I just want to say on the one hand, it's not unprecedented in that respect, but guess who else is in the hall of fame. So we can quibble about that. Guess who else is in? Marv Levy, who never won a Lombardi trophy. Tom Flores, who only had six winning seasons, Don Corrielle, who was like 111, 111, 83 and one. Bill, ballot checks resume is unassailable. Here it is. 302 wins, third most six Super Bowl wins, nine AFC championships, nine Super Bowl appearances, 19 consecutive winning seasons. So even if you dislike the guy, right? Even if you think he was guilty with spy gate and deflate gate, even if you think he's just a horse,

10:39is you know what? In his, in his inner, you know, in his press conferences, whatever you think of the guy, how arrogant are whole of fame voters across sports that they would keep a dude like it's out on the first ballot. It is really the most ridiculous thing ever. And there should be, again, I don't know if the outrage is as excited with bonds or if people just if they're like, if I can't put my finger on what it is about bonds that you are not as outraged about with a ballot check, but it's the same exact sort of thing, right? It's just like, what are we doing? How the halls of fame are these museums that we are stewards of from generation to generation, how arrogant of us to feel as if we can prevent future generations from seeing these in, or in the case of Bill Belichet, how arrogant we are to make him pay this price for your personal feelings about him rather than what actually took place on the field itself. It's just ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. We'll come back, we'll hill with all of his bets

11:43across the sports betting landscape. It's a numbers game. It's in these sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you. Vincent Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vincent Pro. The numbers game on FESES, these sports betting network. Don't forget our website in full effect at vsn.com Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets Greg will be joining us shortly. West Reynolds's farmers insurance open preview. Zachary Cohen explains why the calves are a good bet. I have to check out exactly what Betty's referring to. Later today you can check out Zach Cohen's

12:44NBA best bets in total. Jonathan Davis's NHL picks and props and Adam Burke has his best bets for college hoops right now use promo code A and G to save $60 off of vsn pro annual subscription at vsn.com slash subscribe back to a bell check for a second here. We were quoting the regular season wins for which he is third. If you add a playoff wins right that puts them up to 333 then he's second most behind you. But I hope people understand just holding two thoughts in your heads at the same time because you know someone can come back the reason I bring up Vince Lombardi the guy on the trophy and then Joe Gibbs who won three super walls with three rando quarterbacks as compared to Tom Brady's because if you break down bill Bella checks winning percentage it's 769 with Tom Brady right 249 and 75 is winning percentage without Tom Brady's 83 and 104 449 so again there is one school of thoughts like okay this is not unprecedented like other coaches are actually actually had a almost as good of a case if not better to have gotten on the first ballot and they didn't is my point

13:49but they all should be in is my overriding point right they all should be in and bill bell check six super balls it's just it doesn't matter what you think of him otherwise what happened happened just like the ball did go off Barry bonds is bat over the fence right okay it happened same thing with bill bell check you cannot get in the two super walls with a giant as the defensive core yes that's all right that's absolutely right just an absolute try there is there is nothing worse than Hall of Fame voters what a self righteous they were going to make a stand we're going to show him and by the way we're shaman vennette a report that bill polian bill want to bill bell check arrivals back of the day of course told other voters that he believed bell check should wait a year due to the 2007 spy gate case by the way the Patriots determined to have filmed the jets coaching signals from an unauthorized location for those who forget what spy gate was

14:50about they got a $500,000 fine for Bella check for that $250,000 fine plus the the loss of a first round pick for the Patriots and deflate gate order the deliberate deflation of footballs that were used in the Patriots victory against the colts during the 2014 AFC championship January of 2015 so you can blame polian for that but 10 other people also voted against they still voted against the first ballot so you can't put it all on polian it's incredible man absolutely incredible by the way Brady was suspended also for deflate gate for the first four games the 2016 season Patriots find a million dollars forfitted two draft selections in 2016 but when those things were happening right there isn't a little note at the end that says oh and you should mess with him when he's up for the hall of fame i know he's just so dumb timer i was up at school actually when that the flakeate went down because when i was working at my first news station i was up there up in debtum i was supposed to interview with uh Brady because i went to a uh a uh a charity event with

15:55him in guyfiary but that he wasn't taking any media at that time. Let me do my little Joe Gibbs calculator here if you gave Joe Gibbs Tom Brady he would have won 45 super balls it says by my counting. Will Hill joins us now courtesy the progressive guest line uh you can follow him on twitter at not the will hill that's two E's on the V uh once again he is the host of the should of bet more podcast which he does not once not twice but three times a week how you don't will Killie what's going on you know playing all the hits this morning i love it Joe Joe Gibbs Barry Lamar bonds i love it this is just a perfect show you know you don't you don't go to the to the B cuts you just play the hits because you never know who's punching in they want to hear sexual healing by Marvin Gaye they want to hear like the B track from that album you know it goes all right let's start with let's start with the NFL let's start with super bowl 60 where do you land on side total you think about some props have you bet anything yet what's going on i have only made one bet keep in mind the bet i've talked about all year various times

16:58NFC minus 135 so i don't need i don't feel the need to add to Seattle even though i do think Seattle's gonna win i'm afraid to fade this new England team which everything seems to just be coming up uh you know sevens for them they are just whether it's uh you know opposing injuries remember Niko Collins gets hurt for Houston chargers banged up offensive line the weather last week in Peyton not kicking all all of the stuff in you know stedem stedem playing everything uh i just i do think Seattle is better the one bet i have made uh donald and you talked about a lot a little on monday donald it plus 130 for MVP to me there's value there in for a while i remember the the super bowl where the packers beat the Steelers like this the packers were three point favorite but you can get Rodgers like plus 140 for MVP that was like a hitting little trick where you can get value on the soup bowl the team you thought was going to be win or the quarterback of the team you thought was going to win for a while that disappeared where my homes and the chief the line was about the same it wasn't worth it Brady the Patriots line was about the same wasn't worth it this year i mean pioxer like minus 200 minus 220 and darlings plus 130 with the narrative

18:02being there and who's the most likely guy to steal it jackson smith and jigba okay if he has a big game darlings gonna have a big game so i'm surprised they're giving you plus 130 i do think there's value there the narrative is so strong was a high pick with the jets he's on his fifth team you know good guy everyone seems to like and we talk about the media not like a bell check nobody seems to have a bad word to say about donald do you know seems to get along with everybody seems to be liked by everybody i'd be he'd have to play it i mean what kind of game would it take for him to win the super bowl and not get MVP i think it's obviously possible i just think it's unlikely i do think there's value there at that plus price i agree with every word every word of that you almost have to strain your brain to come up with a path where the seahawks win and he does not get MVP it's the all things being equal or even less than equal by a touch he's getting it one would assume so you're right even plus 130 maven represent value um i have you know we have two weeks talk about this so i'm trying to we vomit out every thought i have about this super bowl yeah but isn't isn't the more macro lesson will on this that pre flop before the season started

19:08the seahawks were roundly considered by many to well they were going to finish last in the NFC West like we forget that right they were going to finish behind Arizona according to many um and then in the case of the patriots i mean my goodness but were they even going to that they weren't going to compete with buffalo remember buffalo was fade out completely they were going to win the east some people thought patriots might even finish third i'll raise my hand on that uh patriots were 80 to one to win it all the seahawks were 60 to one isn't the macro lesson that none of us knows a damn thing in this league we know nothing we know i mean how many shows did you do listen to how many shows will we have to done we had to have done before we got around to you know what things gonna happen patriots are gonna play the seahawks i mean not one person thought that said that it's just it's such a good point i will add one more thing to just uh for for those of us that get intel regarding the halftime show of the subwoof i've heard whispers i've heard through the gate grapevine be careful this year the powers that be were not happy that some of

20:12the stuff leaked last year and there might be some some misinformation leak just to see who leaks what to who so so be careful people that you know first song last song of the halftime show i heard they were not happy that everything leak remember the whole set list got leaked and was on twitter before the subwoof so be careful i'm not saying don't bet it but don't think that you've got the correct answer to the the quiz there might be a little bit of a curveball coming i've heard that's that is good intel on the intel so it's like a curveball of intel to not trust the intel in other words um this is the first this is the first year i'm the first time again i just don't i don't know anything bad bunny-ish and i'm not gonna even act like i would have any idea here you are you familiar with this work at all no i am not but i've i've done well in the i mean just just sometimes you get the information and sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't i would just say this year be careful be careful he listened to anything else on the super bowl no nothing else that's your only bets you guys i mean you guys hit it well the other day where bet the ovars early bet

21:14the under's late i think that's good with may overrushing yard smith and jigg but over that stuff generally leaks up where you can get four or five yard middles so i'm with you there i mean i'm leaning towards seahawks winning and covering with 27 17-ish type of game um it's an interesting stat where seattle i don't if you saw this nine game winning streak i think they've given up like 130 points in those nine games and about half of them are to the Rams like 64 of them are to the Rams and then the other half or in the other seven games combined so a seattle vulnerable defensively or do they just have a problem with staffer in the Rams and they're dominant against everybody else i know shots in the f the football outsiders tv o a stuff has you know them is an all-time i think six best team all-time i can't quite get there with that but they are better than the patriots they are better than the teams the patriots have played does that manifest in a one-game setting we'll see but i i do lean towards seattle winning this game and covering his bad buddies first song will going to be bylay in olvidable titime perkunto titime preguntou pardon me la mudanza all

22:18those all possibilities just more point in them um what did you think we're going to get to college hoops and baseball in the other side but real quick what did you think about nebraska and michigan last night you feel better about nebraska even in defeat yes especially playing short-handed tough place to play obviously tough loss to blow big lead but how about if you had the over that game was soaring over at one point the line told was like 182 and a half 183 and they didn't even touch 150 that stayed under somehow that's just uh boy go go for a walk if you had that over they they scored a combined 98 points in the first half and five minutes into the second half they had only added six points to that and i think it was 22 halfway through the second half it was just an incredible tale of two halves and of course nebraska uh once again without uh two other two other best players in this ballgame so uh we'll come back

23:23numbers game on fysand these sports betting network back on a numbers game live from circular resort casino downtown Las Vegas kill Alexander daddy begins daddy I know and for the uh I keep wanting to say the vacation in kelly bill and he's not a vacation poor kids got a migraine yeah kelly hopefully back tomorrow uh we get tweets beating the book wet willy cologne unbelievable bad beat moose setty he adds was that whole theory with a cat in a box yesterday morning seems fitting oh yeah the uh Schradinger's cat uh that with a cats in a box this is a 1930 for this is how they thought about 1935 the cats in the box we don't know if it's a live or not until we observe it so when people are waking up to the musetti thing they don't know if they've won it's so bad uh this is from sports of art stayed up for this so sorry man Schradinger's Novak oh people like the Schradinger they yesterday capping lines and betting times just one word he says pain sports of art quoting me from yesterday says uh you said I have musetti to win the quarter but I'm not betting him tonight because well he's Novak yeah it's exactly what I said

24:26s Watson that's an awful way to lose your musetti quarter winner bet terrible luck joke which could have clawed back from two oh of course but that still stinks to lose on an injury to fall the AE he wasn't called he wasn't clawing back um one would not have thought to watching that Joe letery did that just happen Lorenzo had that on lock Novak was mentally checked out outmatched cooked hard breaking for his leaving drew knew it would be another gut punch in the joker match yeah but even drew didn't know about being by injury that was one heck of a way to lose that um by the way congratulations for every bad beat there's a good there's a good outcome right Ben Wilson had that bet yesterday on the show uh musetti to win the first set jokovic to win the match plus three eighty so he caches as well as three eighty I was like Ben don't ever complain about a bad beat ever again uh three jack h three one three one waking up to see musetti retired after being up to to nothing makes me not want to even bother with the rest of the day oh god old guy get off my lawn wow Schradinger's cat just punched me in the you know what uh I woke up to see

25:26boosetti up to sesford retire to lose of course my bet is scored a loser that may be an all-time bad beat for me yet's it's up there spence Ben and nickel you have the value for the musetti quarter three win was looking forward to celebrating a big plus money win together instead we're left thinking about his nether regions so true oh man it continues ray and texas brutal beat on that quarter bet on musetti might warrant a hug from kelly today kelly's not here to hug me I have to get one from daddy Brian he for going to use the logic that Bella check shouldn't be a first ballot hall of fame or I like this then Brady shouldn't be either right after all Brady benefited from the scandals and added to his legacy such a dumb rationale both of the very definition of the first ballot Brian I totally agree with that totally agree with that oh yeah I'm sure you're not going to put Tom Brady in on the first ballot then right I don't know why I said they're like Glenn close in fatal attraction I'm not you can I'm not going to just be ignored I Trump a Belluch again how can you put Brady and it's these guys are unbelievable tronsky hey gill hell of a bad beat on your quarter musetti bet last night I was with you at plus 240 rough however as bad

26:27as Novak look I wonder if you're on board with a sinner three to nothing bet I nuked it at minus 138 Novak looks done I would not be surprised at all sinner shuts him out three sets to love and Matthew Steinhard Yo not to sound like a bills van but from a future standpoint this week it's been brutal from a football slash tennis outcome what a gut punch these past few days have been well hope you're wrong with Pagula anyway uh Michael Burns I was shocked to find out in Nebraska has never won an NCAA turning game ever I guess it's a football school someone yeah they're the only power conference school to never have won a NCAA bracket NCAA tournament game North Western was the previous one that had not one and now Nebraska's the only one left and here they are just with one loss on the year JD and Florida woke up at 3 30 to check result of musetti Joker and almost cried had a future at plus 220 last night I'm was setting up two sets and retires uh Michael Burns that Joker magic awful just awful and ace hunt there's no more fun bet that the Super Bowl anthem length thank you for all you do for us and especially the chuck

27:28willery two and two references morning Yensers have a great day I will go but uh it through more tweets uh we can overrun the show with them I'll get to the rest coming up will hill kind enough to join us again here for a second segment will you have some college hoops bets today oh god are you okay yeah I'm good uh I played TCU you got me right I played TCU plus seven and a half uh I just think you look at their results they have pretty much played competitive with everyone they beat Florida they only lost by Florida Michigan they had that game against Kansas a couple weeks ago where they led the whole way and should have won but didn't lost in overtime I know it's not a great spot Houston's off of a loss seven and a half points is just a lot of points I feel like the spot is really baked in here uh for Houston so TCU plus seven and a half at home is a play for me uh Jamie Dixon's a good coach they play hard for him you know he got that rep at pit for you can't win the big one a lot of early exits in March and we were texting about this on the group chat last night look at what's happened at pit since I mean Jeff Capel feels like he's been there forever with

28:31the very little results so uh I don't mind backing Jamie Dixon plus the seven and a half and I took Butler plus 12 and a half uh again St. John's I just feel like St. John's is overvalued you know week to week here game to game they trail by 15 to seat in hall trail by 16 to save you the last two games came back in one both of them but haven't covered 12 and a half is a lot here they're not great at point guard they're good defensively but their effort kind of comes and goes to uh been a little bit disappointed I thought St. John's would be better than what they are so Butler plus 12 and a half TCU plus seven and a half couple dogs here on a Tuesday night on a Wednesday night and I will say this watching college basketball really now that football is kind of in the rear view boy the last couple marches we haven't gotten a lot of upsets in the tournament last year was nothing the year before was only a couple I'm worried we only get very few here going forward I don't want to say Cinderella is dead but it feels like the mid majors I just don't know if anyone can compete with the top 10 12 teams in the country the first round I'm worried that

29:33chalk is going to prevail once again once the tournament comes around will hill though the man who called Florida Atlantic to get to the final four we shall never forget never forget one of the great megapods ever with you and wish now um and Jeff parls on there as well okay uh yesterday Jeff Erickson was on the show from roto wire and he surprised me with four baseball season win totals you are surprising us with some baseball plays what do you have oh man this this warmers me up just thinking about it because it is freezing here in Connecticut snow all over the place ice it's cold it gets dark early it just makes me warmer just thinking about baseball talking about baseball makes me warmer I like the Orioles five to one to win the east the Yankees are somehow the short shot they always get the benefit of the doubt in the market because they're a public team look judge can get hurt I know the pitching is pretty good but they have not improved that team at all and Baltimore I think you just throw out last year and Toronto I know the mid the world series let's see them do it again it's a good division I get that but I just think Baltimore every pitcher for them last year got hurt they they had so many injuries to the staff

30:35Kyle Bradish is back a lot of those pitchers will be healthier this year and development is not always linear some of those position players regressed a little bit it wasn't that long ago it was two years ago the Soto team with the Yankees where the Orioles went toe-to-toe with them throughout the summer Yankees eventually pulled away the last couple of weeks but I think Baltimore at five to one yeah the Lonzo to the lineup uh that to me that's going to be a good team I think there's value on Baltimore at five to one and I'm going back to Texas they burned me last year they just could never get it going they just couldn't hit they they would flirt with you know making a run they get close and then they just drop a couple games but you add Mackenzie Gore and maybe being around DeGrom and less pressure being the third starter he's got a lot of talent and you've got a rotation with DeGrom Eavaldi Gore and then a couple of lottery tickets Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker at the back of the rotation those guys were prize pitching prospects not that long ago if you get one of those guys to pop you're looking at an awesome rotation you just need to get some offense I think some of those guys Wyatt Langford a year older Evan Carter has got good pedigree

31:37you know who knows Seattle do there is there a little hangover with that brutal loss in the ALCS I think Texas at plus 420 or so to win the West is very live guiley we have not spoken about this you and I but I am very bullish on the Rangers also I am very bullish on the Rangers you had something else in baseball too right not just those two usually I'm under or past but maybe this is just a new me maybe I'm just a more optimistic you know more positive version of me I like the white socks over 65 and a half that this will be a fun one to sweat all summer they're they're better they were decent last year they got to 60 wins a decent I mean respectively to you know the year before all of those prospects they got for crochet all the years of being bad I think they got a lot of young talent 65 and a half is not that you know unattainable of a number that's a pretty low number to clear in a division where all right you get the royals the tigers Cleveland's probably going to regress I mean who knows how lucky they can be this year that's it's not a bad division and they've got a lot of young talent 65 and a half is a low number

32:41and I like the A's too the A's they probably don't have enough pitching to compete for a wild card spot although I wouldn't say at five to one or so then making the playoffs in the worst bet that line up is loaded Kurtz is a future MVP bat Rooker Jacob Wilson Langley or Sodistram they are a load a lot of I'd love to see some of the totals we had gents and Lewis on the podcast we were talking about like what are those totals going to be in some of those games and you know where they play because you're going to be looking at 12 12 and a half they can hit their pitching's not great but I think they find their way close to 80 or so wins so I like the A's over I like the white socks over you say it all the time your instinct on these should usually be play the under those are two ones I just feel are a touch low gullies that's that's exactly how I look I'm I'm always the instinct is to bet against the human achievement like with the Guardians last year but I'm with you on the Rangers I'm with you on the A's you told me gents and by the way gents and of course co-host by the books before us with Captain America Dave Ross you said he's high on the Giants man I wish I believe that how did he get there we went division by division I said should we even skip the

33:44NOS like the Dodger obviously going to win he goes yes but I think the Giants could be feisty a beta the pitching he's in he knows the manager from being a Tennessee and working in college baseball he didn't say they're gonna like win the division but he thinks they can I think be a little bit better than people might think too out to paraphrase oh man I hope he's right well you can listen to gentson on the should a bit more podcast uh three times a week uh wherever you get your podcasts will pleasure man thank you so much all right thanks for having me see up not the will hills where you could find we'll on Twitter Greg Peterson's fat vibe next numbers game on feces these scores many network football meets flavor with visa in an Omaha stakes the official sponsor of tailgating and right now when you spend a hundred twenty nine dollars you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings plus 50% off-site wide at Omaha stakes dot com slash vs i n don't wait spend a hundred twenty nine dollars get two pounds that's two pounds of wings and save 50% site wide on stakes and more at Omaha stakes dot com slash vs i n

34:50that's Omaha stakes dot com slash v sin minimum purchase required seaside for details skill Alexander we get tweets beaten book Jay Buckley seller show per usual just book the Vegas trip for twenty twenty six looking forward to catching up late June and seeing crack two have a great day fellas thank you Jay you too as well have a great day Rob Graham good morning and numbers game team minus Kelly if he's listening I can relate with getting my grains at the odd time so definitely sending prayers for a quick recovery also weather update up here in northern czechuan last night minus 49 wind chill northern czechuan man stay warm Rob Chris Heath super Dave said Kelly and Danny were up next he said I was going to set the over under on killed took the day off to cancel his time share tweets at 25 and a half. Dave is having some issues this morning with connections cold is cold is getting to yeah skit so 360 I tell you I'm was setting to win the quarter but I still stayed up late to hedge at plus three seventy five when joke of it went down two sets I was worried about joke of it's being joke of it's not an injury at least we've got home I tell that as well thanks kill like glad to work out for you skit so oh and this is a great tweet Billy Charlibos

35:55is pointing out this tweet from Brandon Anderson he said thought this graphic was absolutely incredible to extend this their opponent in week one week three in the playoffs the OC was fired oh he's extending this graphic week three regular season was Tomlin technically quit what he's referring to can we show this graphic here Danny this is so this is Brandon Anderson put this out Brandon Anderson work at the athletic or action I can't remember where he works apologies to Brandon but he put out this this tweet at Wheaton Brando this he put this the Patriot schedule this year and the results right week one they played a fired coach week two fired coach week three fired coach week four NFC South week five fired coach week six NFC NFC South week seven eight nine fired coaches week 10 NFC South week 11 jets week 12 Bengals week 13 through 16 fired coaches sweet 17 jets week 18 fired coach now now Patriot fans might say well we had something to do with them being fired well you get the idea and Brandon works at action that work Brandon works at action that we're sorry about that Brandon Buddhist man I went to sleep cat thriving living life woke up

36:57in the middle of the night put my ear to the box didn't hear anything shook the box didn't hear anything open the box RIP Lorenzo the cat back to sleep woke up this morning yep Lorenzo the cat still dead fantastic you it a little thing like Schradinger's cat thing I get so much mileage by the way easiest schedules by DVOA since 1978 there it is Patriots 2025 30 easiest only the 91 bills and 99 rams super bowl teams by the way had easier schedules so there's that ladies and gentlemen he's always kind to join us talk college basketball with us and anything else that's on his mind he is or he can be found on Twitter at G unit underscore 81 his tribute to Anquan Bolden he has a 2,200 day plus streak of consecutive college basketball podcast I'm not making up that it's been over a decade of him running at least 12 miles a day I believe her nine years maybe it was ladies and gentlemen he is one of a kind Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of aggressive

37:59guess like Greg how you doing man I'm doing great and you know what there was a team that once sought that firing Mike rabble was a good move and since they did they have the worst record in the NFL by the way to add to that yes we said yes Tennessee has won six football games since they fired Mike rabble the Patriots of one six games since late December that's the comparison yeah real quick because I was thinking about this on the way in because I know I was going to have a chance to talk to you before we get to college basketball haven't asked you about your dating life lately it's not a dating life right you're a one woman guy now is that correct I am a woman woman and yes sir okay when it when it comes to and again if this gets too personal please let me know when it comes to I just trying to get into the mind of Greg Peterson we know you as this college basketball analytics baseball fan graphs immersed guy do do you is is that like a four play think we're like how does it work with you like how does it how do you sort of get the lady in the mood does that stuff come up or do you have game as the kids call it in other words that doesn't come up very often

39:04because she knows that from time to time I might need to dip out early to be able to break down more self-flame action it's got to dip out early I'm sorry for the wildly inappropriate questions great guys people wanted to know I think all right so Nebraska last I want to ask this again about Nebraska Michigan so Nebraska is without a mast and Frager last night they lead almost the whole I mean they were up double digits right in you know the first half I'm like what am I watching good God are they are they the Indiana if you will of the Indiana football of basketball where a traditional school and another sport is now doing just to remember this things in in the sport they're not known for I'll ask you what I asked will earlier which is you feel better about this Nebraska team even in defeat than you did before this game they were down two of their top I would say four players in this game and they very nearly wanted on the road and I felt like Michigan was overvalued I think in this day and age we have seen with legal eyes sports betting these people see these lines that they think are and air quotes your traps and they think oh of course Michigan

40:09laying 10 plus points to a team that's undefeated that has to be the right side it has to be right I do think that we probably went a little bit too far with that but I with this Nebraska team they do such a great job with their defense they dare you to shoot it from three I think they're one crypto night is one they run into a team that's really really good in terms shooting three's but I feel good about this Nebraska team I do think that they are the real deal and every single time people out this team they seem to somehow some way be able to get the job done even though they lost yesterday and feel like me I have the over 98 points in the first half and it still doesn't get there that's a little bit brutal but brutal so with this Nebraska team feeling really good about them so a legit final four contender a legit championship contender yes I have to say yes this is their own loss right now I think I need to put Arizona at the top this work right now but I am teams on named Arizona Nebraska Michigan our two teams are right up there towards the top of this long viewcon all right Greg has about 47 picks but we will reduce it to Greg's fab five let's

41:13begin with a total Greg in the St John's game I believe it is yes the St John's red storm against feltler I recognize that these two teams like to play a tempo both are in the top 40 terms of total possession is brain but St John's limits the amount of clean possessions in a game by ranking in the top 35 in terms of turnovers generated on a per-possession basis feltler a little bit of a sketchy three-point shooting team and St John's a themselves battle a little bit of tough time figuring out the point card spot especially with popular catching 12.5 I'm going to be willing to take the points with the underdog but do you think that St John's is going to be able to do a rock solid job with that defense who be eligible for multiple blocks per contest and the other the totals want a little bit to I especially with St John's being a top 20 team church points a lot on a per-possession basis at home so on the under and butler catching the points so Danny just are just scoring at home he doesn't use the metrics to get her into sexy time but she is aware that Greg will dip out at some point because the metrics must be used for all right now we have a side where we go in here next how about if we go with Minnesota versus

42:19Wisconsin and I'm all the way with Wisconsin for Minnesota some of the most demonstrative home and roads plus a year and five not pretty five team in terms points a lot on a per-possession basis at home but I'm 25 team out of 365 teams in terms of points a lot on a per-possession basis away from home Wisconsin needed a buzzer beater to knock off Minnesota the first time around with Minnesota after fear a hangover spot against the aforementioned Nebraska Horanuskers completely blew that game I'm willing to lay the number here with Wisconsin at home was he enough down to seven half like it even more all right back to a total now where he got here absolutely and with regards to this one we've got ourselves I do not know what they put on the graphic I'll show you the graphic here once again because we're we're having trouble bringing up too but I do remember when it went total side total you know what's next year Danny on the total yes we are going with Stanford in Miami Stanford in Miami total Stanford Miami I do like the under here or the over here because with Miami this team adds on a nice job it turns the cranky

43:19got the tempo top one 15 team it turns the total possessions per game and if I had to play right now we'll be looking at Stanford they do a nice job it turns the gendering turnovers but they're very vulnerable from three parades Miami doing a great job on the boards with the leak renewing company and this is a Stanford team that's actually been more efficient on offense when they've been away from home rather than at home so do think you get a higher scoring game like the over here Miami versus Stanford at 147 and a half all right Houston TCU the total set at 137 and a half which way you going on that I'm going in on the under both of these seems gave up 90 plus points over the weekend but both are built on defense especially Houston top 5 team in terms of turnovers generated on a per possession basis just 317th in terms of total possession is brain TCU top 40 team in terms of turnovers generated on a per possession basis I do feel like both of these seems after a rough weekend performance on defense they make up for it here I'm in on the under all right and then an SEC battle between South Carolina and Florida we went over the formula for the first time yesterday Florida somehow qualifies they are 10.5 point

44:20favorites here at home against the gamecox I think that they could get the job done but give me the 10.5 year of self-care line and the over with South Carolina they're doing a really nice job in terms of protecting the ball they're really going with their two point shooting percentage as well Florida bottom 30 team with their three point shooting percentage have not been able to get it going in the back court at South Carolina actually do a really good job at terms of guarding the three you have a pair of teams that don't journey a ton of possession so clean possessions fiat in on the over and in on the points with South Carolina Greg you're the best thanks for enduring my ridiculous questioning I appreciate it always appreciate you thank you there it is Greg's fab five everybody all your screen will repeat them towards the end of the show coming back with Paul Carr on the champions league next what a numbers game right here at decent