A Numbers Game | January 15, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00This is Vincent, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. I always do. So I'm those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill. Alexander gone. V sent good Thursday morning to this. And numbers gave it. V sent these sports betting network. V sent dot com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. And of course, series six of channel 158. Gill Alexander Kelly Middleton in a hissy. Good morning. You don't sound very excited this morning. Okay. I'm very excited. Step off today. No. I'm scared off. I don't know your step behind right there on the take on the show today. Zack and crack. You know, that goes Bill Crackenberger. A little later on unscripted with crack man. Bill Crackenberger, who as Will Hill said last week was throwing 102 on the corners. He was just on fire last week. We'll see if he can match that performance again again later today on the show. I don't remember what we were talking about.

1:00Oh, yes, I do. Yes. Strip clubs. Yes. That's correct. That's I do. Two dudes. No drinking going to strip clubs. Not understanding strip club. That was your review. Not understanding strip clubs. Was that your take on it? No, no, no. That's what I said. Yeah. Oh, I thought that's it. Is that Cohen on the NFL and NBA and the host of hardwood handy capers? How often do you get on hardwood handy capers? Never week. It'll be on there tomorrow is Secretary, how was long shots yesterday? It was great. Yeah, great. First one's up now. Yeah, tournament doesn't tee off. It's another two and a half hour. So yeah, go check it out. Guess who forgot to sign up for the splash sports one and done. Don't worry. I did all of that organizing yesterday. It was like let me get it all my contests and everything and it was like at the end, like, okay, now, who am I going to play? Yeah. There's that. That the reason will become a pair of why I forgot. Oh, I'm almost Charlie Mike. Mike Sommage going to join us later, co-host of Ready, Set, Bet, talk NFL, and I know there's some hockey picks. Man always has some hockey picks. Love this is hockey, bet. Love this is hockey. Hockey here, hockey there, hockey everywhere with Sommage. He'll Sommo, bomb us a little later on the show.

2:01And Tim Murray to talk Nadi with us and beyond. Maybe he's got some NFL thoughts as well. So we will get into all that. I am in, the reason I forgot to enter is because I was in full Australian open draw mode doing numbers on the men's side. Women's side, which we'll get to more materially because I have some thoughts we're doing with the podcast later today. Me Drew Dinsick and Zach Cohen. It is, how can I describe it? If you're new to listening to this show, what's the old Dion Sanders thing when he played both football and baseball? There's a sign and he said this perfectly reflects my career, which is baseball is my brain, football is my brain on crack. Well, tennis is my brain, football is my brain on crack when it comes to handicapped me. So I just, it's the most awesome thing in the world. And before we get to that, can we just, you have any reaction to John Harbaugh on the Giants real quick? Uh, one of the better jobs. I mean, me and you did the whole exercise. What was it last week of, you know, if you had to, which job would you be most attracted to?

3:01And I think we kind of settled on it was Giants or Falcons, right? Falcons, if you like the better roster, if you wanted to focus on a better younger quarterback, probably go with the Giants. So I don't think, I don't think I'm surprised by the choice. It felt quick. I don't know what that means. He sure didn't want to take any time off. Right. Yeah. Like, I don't know what that means, but like it just felt quick. Yeah. Well, um, my reaction is, you know, a lot of people, oh, why is this so great? They're the Giants are so excited. And all this, why am I not as a, why am I not as like moved as other people are? In the end, he's a CEO type of head coach, right? Yeah. He was a special team coordinator that became the head coach of Baltimore Ravens. Uh, and in all his years in Baltimore, and he's, listen, they had a great, there's objectively, they had a great run, but great is, is tempered by the fact that they, you know, they won one Super Bowl with John Harbour as the coach. Am I, am I not mistaken about that? Yep. They're right. Um, and so, um, Brian Billick won the one in 2000.

4:03So yeah, one with John Harbour on 2012, the Harbour Bowl, if you will, against his brother Jim, when the Ravens beat the, when the Ravens beat the Niners, but just look at the course of that career. He, he couldn't, he didn't manage to win one, right? With prime Lamar. Yes. Lamar Jackson, who say what you will, two, two time MVP, and the third year where he should have wanted, was he rewrote the record books. He also had maybe the greatest kicker of all time in Justin Tucker, and it had stout defenses the whole way through. And, and could not, could not win a Super Bowl. That's again, it's, I just want to temper the, the excitement of, of all, because this is not an X's and O's guy, like a Ben Johnson, right? Yeah. Who comes in with a specific skill set that translates to the field. So when you're a CEO, coach, a lot has to coalesce for that to work. So I'm just saying, I, I don't know, with, with the giants, will Jackson, dark become Lamar Jackson? Will, will they have the players on defense? Well, they, they got to do have a talented defense,

5:04but will it coalesce in the same way that it in Baltimore to even be a competitor, to even contend? I don't know. I'm not as excited about it as other people are. I think the conversations become interesting. And yet you're not one of the people I've heard go in hard on that, but like you just brought it up right now. If the, hey, you don't really specialize offense defense, man, I've heard some arguments, though, where I think we're gone too overboard with that, where it's like, I don't have a problem with a CEO head coach, but everything's got to work well, right? I don't either, but it's more abstract. It is, it is. It's almost, I mean, in theory, I like the idea of it better, right? A specialist on offense and defense and someone overseeing everything. But man, I think this old John Harbaugh on, you know, out there in the market has really driven that conversation more than I've heard about, heard it in years like, man, there's a couple guys I've heard of. Like if you don't specialize on one side of the ball, like well, you know, you shouldn't even have the head coach a job. Well, I mean, oftentimes, you know, the counter is sometimes great coordinators make terrible head coaches, right? Right. Right. North, North Turner leads to mind right guys like that.

6:05So I'm not saying that there's one way to do it. But I, my excitement is tempting to be to right. Because I think if you are, so if you are talking about a coach like that, you would want a more complete roster, right? Well, you'd be more excited with him if you took over Atlanta, right? And John's are pretty loaded. I mean, not as not as loaded as Atlanta though. Yes, I would be much worried. Whoever gets the Atlanta job they are and they are in a catbird seat, I think. The other one I find interesting, just wait for the coaches of the new open. I should say it's the, I'm becoming a believer in almost any of these guys, but like especially a Mike McDaniel, especially Mike McDaniel, or any of these head coaching openings really better for you. Now them, what like a lion's offensive coordinator job could be and then springboard you to another better land expat. I think Atlanta is the only job that I can say I would take over that lion's offensive coordinator job. All right. Let's look at some quarters of the australian open, baby. These just come down this morning. First of all, Nevada, when you get sports betting, boy, this is going to be some hell of a state.

7:06There's nowhere here. No quarters here. Ben MGM Nevada, sleep at the wheel. Draw yesterday, draw. Yes, well, last night, our time, right? Okay. Yes, this morning, Australia time. When do we officially start the Australian open this weekend? Okay, I feel like I'm missing one of the, I feel like I've missed a week of a Australian tournament. We're not allied. Okay, yeah, Brisbane already happened. Brisbane already happened. Miss Brisbane already, all right. Yeah, oh, bot Melbourne coming up. So here's the deal. Here's the deal, quarter by quarter, men's side. And I'll do this again. Well, I'll do it in the podcast. We'll get Drew's thoughts. We'll get Zags might my quick reaction to these. These are available draft Kings. So quarter number one on the men's side, Carlitos exists. Carlos Alcarras appropriate that he is a minus 500 favorite. I don't think you can force a bet. I think if Alex Dimonore and Aussie himself, if he ended up in a different quarter, he would have been live. So if there, if you are, if you put, you know, if you, the proverbial,

8:08you must take another player here. It would be Dimonore, okay, but I just don't think it's realistic. But that's the only other name I would consider here. So and that's going to apply to the center quarter as well, right? Ben Shelton ended up in the center quarter, which is quarter four. If center had ended up in a different quarter, he would have been a consideration, but I don't think you could take him against. The great Yonic center next to second quarter. This one is going to be the bets will be induced here. But I wish Deniel Medvedev had a nicer price. He's only two to one. He does have the better raw numbers on hard courts. Then Sasha's verif who has been the third best player in the world for, for some time, but Deniel Medvedev was the third best for some time as well. But the veteran Medvedev who has won one slam, he is the appropriate short shot. I just wish it was a better price because then I would, I would bet it. But it, not it, not it plus 200. No love for FAA. No, not this tournament. Not this turn. What is this? The all Russian quarter. That's just a group of men. Medvedev in there.

9:08Their buddies, by the way, it's very happens to be German. Third quarter is where I think you might, if you, if there was one bet that I could endorse on a quarter, this is Novak Djokovic's quarter. Now he's got the best numbers still at the age of 38 of all these guys, which is incredible. At plus 135. So he's appropriately priced. But if I were, if I was, if I were making a bet here, Lorenzo Musetti at plus 650, 650 would be the guy and kind of had a feeling you were going to say that name. I was really hoping you were going to say another one. But my boy, Gregor, just got so much respect for that guy. Well, Gregor has been spending a lot of time with girlfriend, you know? Ah, you know what? And who could blame him? Yeah, I can't at all. Yeah. Wanted to back him, but you're right. Maybe I should give him a little time to get into the season, you know? Anyway, that's the men's of the women's side. By the way, do they put all four quarters up at the gravity's? I only saw the first quarter. We'll hit the rest of them by, oh, here's the four. Here's the, here's the Yonic center. What a minus 700. Like I said, Ben Shelton was in a different quarter. I, he might be live, but he ended up in centers.

10:09And Zhao Fonseca, yes, still not a thing. Is there, I meant to ask you this the other day when we were looking at some of those props. Are we once again too much love for Zhao out of the, out of the gates here? The people got a little crazy, Zhao. It's just the, are the books protecting themselves? Is it more of that? Protect themselves from the young guy that they think could be the up and, uh, I mean, I, I think that's a pretty nice price. Okay. But he's not going to beat center. Yeah. This is just, it's too top heavy on the men's side. Do you not want to do women's side? No, we can't. I didn't know how much, I didn't know how much time you don't like it. I mean, we're going to, if people want a real heart over version of this, they can tune into the broadcast. Oh, man, we, we, we get into it. First quarter, men, uh, women's side, arenas, Abaleika, the number one seed, the favorite in the tournament, mine is 230. If you had to make another bet in this quarter, not saying I will, but if I, but I am tempted, I like guessing where you're going to go. Martha. Yes. Marta Kasiak plus 650. She's at a great start to the season.

11:09Didn't beat Sabaleika when they played, though, but I believe it was like 6464 if I'm not mistaken. Is it, this another one with Emboco? Is it, is there too much early love in the season for a little too early? I mean, if that would be awesome. But yeah, just a little too, a little too early. Sabaleika's got the numbers. Kasiak is, is the one that if you, if you were making another bet, I think you would go that way in quarter number one. Um, we'll get to quarter two, three of fours. We, uh, country club a little later on because you got some Sony open stuff. Yeah, well, we'll do that next. Oh, well, we'll continue with it. Yeah, well, yeah, well, Kram and the tennis and the golf match. Oh, man, did you see this, uh, do you see his one point slam idea? They did the Australian open? No, but I saw the highlight. Jesus, it was awesome. I, the best thing I saw, you know, SB feed us, best thing I saw today. Best thing I saw you got to talk about that too on the outside numbers game. Vista, these sports betting that were coming back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline.

12:09And now so can you, Vista pro gives you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets to have the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vista and pro. Numbers game on Vista, these sports betting network. Now at Vista.com, Greg Peterson's college basketball best bet Zachary Cohen's Houston, New England. It rams bears previews for this weekend. Adam Burke's natty prediction between the Keynes and the Hoosiers coming up today's Zachary Cohen's NBA best bets Jonathan Davis is an HL picks and props. And the Australian open mega pod will make its way as well to the airwaves coming up. All of that. Vista.com slash subscribe saved $60 off of decent pro annual subscription with promo code A N G A N G. Is it a numbers game? Yes indeed. See, now we had multiple of these. And I don't even know what I'm supposed to jump in or not, you know, with the promo code.

13:12Oh, yeah, I'm sorry about that. I don't know the computer's on the front. It's not you. It's just it's just now we have multiple with promo codes. I don't want to get obnoxious with. We should probably pick either you do the first or the second. Right. Exactly. Yeah. Let's go to the second one. We'll do the second one. Conversations we should have off here. Uh, let's get to you with this because I first of all that. Okay. The one point slam thing. Can I talk about this? Yeah. I just pulled it up. Okay. So what was the center and some some amateur? Oh, no, no, listen to this. So, you know, tennis does these exhibition things where they all wear like the Bobby Brown, Janet Jackson, you know, mics on there on their head. It's it's usually awful in every sport to try to do the stuff. Yeah. The my prerogative microphone. And it's it's never that entertaining. Right. It's ever that entertaining. It's like, oh, look in the way Osaka cracked a joke. That's hilarious. Right. It's like it's great for five minutes. Like I love the idea of TGL. The problem is that golfers have no personality. No personality. Right. Most of these tennis players don't need a couple of guys to. But anyway, um, so they came up with an idea at the Australian open. It is actually last year, but it didn't get a lot of fanfare last year because the top

14:16players didn't buy into it. But it's this one point slam, they call it. So there's 48 players. So that means that some have a buy, right? And it's done on a bracket style, Vegas college basketball tournaments. Listen into this. You should use a bracket, right? It still works brackets. So it ends up being a, a mix of the top players in the world. So Carlitos was in it. Yonic center was in it. Eagle was in it. Men's a women's and this a mobile was in it. Low level pro players, right? Who barely who can struggle all their lives to even make these tournaments. And then amateurs who are like local Australian TV personality, kind of people or comics or that. Like there's a whole mix of people, okay? Okay. So the idea is they're obviously not playing matches against each other. It's one point. It's like Kelly Bidlin versus Yonic center in a, in a bracket one point. So in other words, someone could hit it off a frame. You could beat Yonic center Kelly, right?

15:16Okay. So what ends up habits for a million dollars, a million dollars, whoever wins gets a million dollars. There's one point. It was the most, it's the most awesome thing ever because you end up, by the way, this, this low, I think he's a low level pro named Jordan Smith, Australian guy won the one million dollars. But essentially what ended up happening was this guy ended up facing like the 147th ranked women's player in the world, Joanna Garland in the finals. One point, right? It's just this real quick thing where everybody's in the same class. It's awesome because end down now you could make the accusation. Oh, Yonic center purposely double faulted to give the guy advance, right? You can say that on some of these. But eventually what you get is you either get a amateur against a low level pro where they're like, you know, they're like taking it super serious. Sure. Or you end up with the occasional pro that donks off a shot by accident against an amateur or a low level pro or the most fascinating combination is you end up with a top women's player against the top men's player and see how that goes down. Now, Ega can't beat Slavio Kobali in a, in a best of three match.

16:20But in a one point, not only did she beat him and did beat him, but you, she can make him look stupid. So there's that kind of, it was just the best thing ever. The greatest idea I think ever gag thing that any sport ever did. And these, and that people were going nuts over it yesterday. That no, I'm sitting here, I read enough on it too. This is great. So we, this is Jordan Smith. So this one says he's an amateur, local amateur, local amateur player. Jordan Smith, awesome. You're, you're basic Aussie bloke. Yeah. 670 K U S US dollar strong, a million Australian Australian dollar week right now. What million Australian? I should point out this is a video. I just watched the quick video of the final, the final point though. I think they're just, they're going nuts. Everybody's going nuts. It got super competitive in some spots. It was awesome. Anyway, also like this, the, I love the, the pro versus Joe thing. Like I love with the, we, we, we criticize the pro for, for not taking it serious. That's a, come on, man. Like you want to give, you want it? Like the whole point is to give the random person a chance.

17:21It's like, you know, if it were an NBA player, you versus, I don't know, Steph, and you just hoist up a 40 footer that's that goes in, right? And you beat Steph. I kind of, anyway, that's right. Quarter number two on the, on the lady side is Coco's quarter. She's at plus 180, Mira, Drava's plus 240. Spitalina has really good numbers at six to one, but I think Coco probably gets through here. I'd have to see y'all. I didn't actually look at her numbers, but Coco is the short shot. I don't think there's a real solid bet there. If I, if I was forced to do want to be Spitalina quarter number three, I haven't seen these numbers. By the way, I'm just looking at these. I only saw first quarter on the lady sides. I haven't seen these. Number three, quarter three, rather on the, on the lady side at the Australian open, do we have that? Nire. What a real quick one about Emma Navarro. Oh, here we go. Her game is falling off. This is what I wanted to see. And this Emma Navarro. Yeah, she's not playing her best. Okay. She is that number caught me by surprise, but she is not playing her best. And I had her last yesterday again, Schneider, Schneider, she lost. And any reason I should get in on my girlfriend, or sova.

18:25She's always live, man. Always live. Yeah. But man and Isimov in quarter number three, by the way, she is the short shot as she should be. But Jesse Pagula at four to one remains of the value. That's the value play in that quarter. Yeah. Wow. Jesse Pagula, whose numbers never fall off all the Americans in one quarter. We'll still throw all you Americans in there. It feels feels like they struggled with the, uh, deciding these quarters this year. Pagula four to one is the value there. And Isimov, a properly priced, remember, Madison Keys is the defending champion of this. Remember she won her first ever slam last year. And then quarter number four, Ega's quarter, um, she was done. No favors because in her quarter is Elena Rabakina, Naomi Osaka and Belinda Betchich. Those four players are the only four players who can win this quarter. Ega, the appropriate short shot, but Rabakina, Osaka's numbers are still great on hard courts. So if there was a value play here, I would say Naomi at seven to one. You haven't been any of these yet, right? I've just seen these for the first time reminder reminder you stations before you go.

19:29Oh, thank you, sir. Thank you. I appreciate it very much. I didn't see it up though there. Yeah. Golf time. Yeah, golf. We got to open in two hours, man. So, uh, it was a late start. Oh, great. Because we're in Hawaii. Yeah, so figured I'd revisit things. They did add, uh, one bet and then some, you know, had to fire some first round leader beds for the first tournament of the year. Of course, uh, does look like there's a possible. It's calmed down a little bit from last night. It looks like there could be a possible win, uh, wave advantage here with winds hitting, uh, hitting the course a little heavier in the afternoon. So first round leader pets, I did focus in on some of the guys with early T times. Call him or a cow, a Kurt Kidiama, Rico Hoey and the first round leader, God, Keith Mitchell, uh, bet all three of, or all four of those 33 to one, 45 to one, 51 to one and 56 to one for first round leader. Um, all those guys. Yeah, if you want to say Kelly, Kelly decided to bet on people that can't put that, that's true. Good ball strikers, not not a lot of putting going on there, uh, reminder on the outrides and, you know, you can check out long shots if you're looking for more details on all of this.

20:32But to call him or a cow, I did bet at 22 to one, uh, still coming off the season where he had excellent numbers off the tee and on approach. Putter was hurting a little bit, but he's had some time. Hopefully he can get that fixed. Might have first turned by the year two. There's going to be a lot of equipment change that going on with these guys. So we're not really going to find out till afterwards. So I would, I would just, uh, recommend taking it easy out of the gates here. Uh, Colin more cow has not played here since 2021, but has had good finishes here. T seven and a T 21 in the two times that he has. See who came was, was Gills heard me bet. See who came a million times before I was not expecting to bet him at this tournament at this number. But he's a guy that's really, really played well late into the fall and even early in the winter had a third, a third place finish at the Australian open of golf just a month ago. So he's one of these guys that's really been playing more than most that's going up. He's going up against in this field. One here in 2023. Uh, this is the fifth most predictive course when it comes to course history on the PGA tour. Really not something that I will lean into heavily throughout the year.

21:35Like you'll like to rely on recent data and stats more from what they're doing in recent form more than, uh, course history. But, uh, for the start of the tournament, I think when you have a predictive course like this, it definitely I'd lean on this more, probably a good chance skill. Besides the masters, there's a chance I lean on course history more here than any other. Wow. Yeah. Uh, Chris Kirk also on the outright card from me 45 to one. I played him a tongue down the stretch last summer. He was playing really well, kind of gaining everywhere, statistically, even with a putter gained an eight of his last nine events. So I'm hoping that somehow carries over. I wouldn't, I wouldn't expect it. But this guy's played the Sony open a ton. Uh, he has finishes of second solo, a third solo, a T2, a T5 in his career. He's played this course a lot, so I should know it well. And then you go etch of a real guy that some, a lot of people got excited about last year, played him lightly last year. I think this year, though, especially a course like this could fit very well for me. So really good putter and where his approach numbers really lock in or that 150 to 200 range,

22:38where you're going to see a lot of approach shots coming from. And he finished second in this event last year. And then my late ad Mac Meisner, this was kind of going off the model. He rated out very highly for what I was looking at statistically. Yes, that's not played a ton, but had a good fall swing for him. He's kind of my long bomb added 98 to one. And my one and done selection for this week and kill you. Can't play someone in one and done and not bet on them. No, can't do that. That's like playing survivor and not betting on the same. A lot of faith in more Kawa here out of the box for you. Uh, this is I would put it more of a by low on more cow. Okay. I think that number is not very, like he should be up there with the rest of the favorites. And I make sense. We'll come back a little stage of a limitation in the NFL. It's a numbers game. It beats in these sports betting network. Numbers game on fee set. These sports betting network back on the numbers game. Don't forget about the sharp plays of Matt transparency with the records updated daily.

23:39Hey, I betting it out. This real top global betting info alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for more sharp plays.com. Check it out. Kelly, I don't know if you know this, but we get tweets at beating the book. Be aware of that. No way. Ooh, these renderings of the new Commodore Stadium and DC. Have you seen this? I did. Thanks to Dave Ross. John Kym tweeted it out. Jason Armeru. Jason. Jason H 11, tweeting out to me, so impressive. What I love about the renderings is it is a, it gives a nod to the old RFK Stadium. In other words, it looks like the silhouette of RFK still, but with a roof on top, basically. But the silhouette on the DC skyline by DC skyline, I mean, if you look at the Lincoln Memorial and then the Washington Monument behind it, you see the sort of curve of RFK. Perfect. That's badass. That's exactly what that is. Also, let's go. Also. Good. Bravo. Commanders. I've got one stadium note and I go, Bravo.

24:40You know why, Gil? Why? Because I see a roof. Kelly, Benlin, trying to ruin football actively, trying to actively ruin football, but never having another outdoor game ever. Look at this gorgeous glass roof. You can get the sunlight in. It's a gorgeous thing. Oh, looks perfect. It's a, it's a beautiful thing. I guess it is a kid. Right? The RFK site there is the eastern corner of DC. So when you look at Dew East, there's that perfect silhouette. I would always as a kid be like, look, RFK, like everybody's looking at the monuments. Do you really, do you really drive over water here or is that just like a fake, fake rendering? Looks like there's water. It's water, right? On that side of DC, there is, yeah, into, uh, that'd be really cool and really cool. And I believe into Waldorf, Maryland, if I'm not mistaken, it looks like there's a moat around it. It's a bit, it's on one side. It's, there's water. Yes. Again, Eastern edge of DC. This is also from, uh, from Twitter, Tronsky, Hey, Gil, I missed the, uh, the Megapod yesterday. I don't see it in my feed. Did I hear a wish? And I would say it was Thursday this week. Thanks and love to show. We recorded the podcast yesterday, the Megapod, uh, Wyatt Tom Chek was doing stuff, though.

25:44So he will put it up today in San Jose, California, calling those Lady Rebs basketball game. And speaking of the Megapod, shoot him a gamble. And thank you, shoot him for, for telling this up. We do a thing called Dumbo of the week with NFL coaches. He tells them, so they're racking up all the Dumbo nominations and winners throughout the season. It appears we are going to end in a three way tie between Jonathan Ganon. Wow, I wouldn't have expected that. Mike McDaniel and Callahan and Brian Callahan all finished the year with a two Dumbo wins and three total nominations each impressive for Callahan, doing it in a fewer games. Oh, Callahan, I was saying, uh, Shanahan, pardon me. I'm not Shanahan. I was talking about, uh, Callahan with the Titans. Why did I get a shot in Heimer in my head? Sorry about that. He continues says of the playoff coaches, Vrable, McKay and Ryan's all have at least one Dumbo to their name. So the race is not technically over yet. Thank you, shoot him a gambler for telling that up for us. I'm surprised those, those big loser head coaches got that much, uh, reaction.

26:45Well, so there were 12 head coaches this past week, six of them had got Dumbo nominations for something idiotic that they did this past week. Yeah. A bigger stage, bigger moments, they should be criticized more, chokers, like Brian Callahan, what was he supposed to do all year? Jamie Buckel make better decisions, I guess. Jamie Buckel. Most importantly, what is the Australian open pod going to be out? Definitely have your definitely love your tennis inside, Gil, feel free to spend a little time on your show this morning, uh, about what might have caught your eye? Well, we already did. I didn't even see your tweets. So thank you, Jamie. Uh, we are recording it at 3 30 Pacific today. That's when the wind studio is available. So 6 30 Eastern, we will have it out there after. But let me also just say it was extremely flattering and not that for all of you listeners of long shots out there for, I'm sorry that you had to wait a little extra day longer than we're used to doing it as well. We did that recorded on Wednesday, but it was, uh, extremely, extremely flattering, uh, and humbling guilt to see how many tweets came in between, you know, kind of end of last week till yesterday.

27:45If like, where the hell's log shots and get it up, get it up. So sorry for the delay. I, I declared yesterday, I believe this is true. Did you say I do declare? Mm hmm. Yesterday was the busiest day in Vincent podcast recording history. So it was, it was podcast as far as recording. It was stacked pod on top of pot. UFC had one. I know first strike. Check that out. It'll be coming out soon. If it's not up already. Sorry Rob. Shrek McVeah. A.O. Drawed Megapod day. Wow. Time flies. Here we go. LFG. He also has a hundred million for Harbaugh. Holy blank. He better win a Super Bowl in that time frame. Yeah. Bainbridge, Louise, why no Megapod on Apple podcast yet? Didn't you guys record it yesterday? Yes. We'll get it up. Promise this morning. Brian Shafer Gill, you being a commanders fan, me being an Eagles fan. We're trained not to like anyone in the current NFC East. That being said, Cowboys suck. I guess commenting on my, my John Harbaugh take, uh, we'll get to more of your tweets. I, we have a backlog of, so I will get to them.

28:46But we want to do this NFL stage of elimination thing and Kelly, you and I did this exercise. What would you say a month ago? December 3rd. Is that you said, Danny? Yeah. December 3rd. It's a little more than a month ago. More importantly, my birthday. But also known as the day we did stage of elimination. Happy, believe it. I appreciate that. Kelly, Kelly never lets anybody know that this is birthday. So Kelly turned, uh, 22. I wish. Yeah. Nice. So these were our guesses. Yeah. Let's see. I have no idea if we did well or poorly when we did these December 3rd. We'll also update them here right after. But just for giggles. Let's see what we said. Patriot stage of elimination. We both said AFC championship or divisional round. So those are, that's in play for the Patriots. Yeah. That makes sense. AFC championship was plus 370 at the time. At the time. Was that the number? Divisional round was plus 140, right? Numbers at the time. Bronco stage of elimination. Yeah. Not so much. We didn't. We got that one seat. We didn't anticipate the beginning of the one seat. We said wild car round plus two tests. So on that cold stage of elimination. Colts. We got that right. Miss playoffs plus 240.

29:47Yeah. This is old. This is only back to December 3rd. We got a plus 240 on the colds to miss the playoffs. Yeah, man. You should have bet that. And then I nailed charger stage of elimination at 2 to 1 wild car round. You said they'd miss the playoffs. So one score one for Gil. Look at you, man. Stacking up dubs on this. Should have betties. Dubs. Dubs. Now, as far as what they, oh, there's more jaguars. Jaguars. We said wild car round. It even money. Bang. Bang. We nailed that. Okay. Here's the. Here was our Achilles heel. Bears. Defginal round. That could still happen plus 350. And then equal stage of elimination, we all said the divisional round. We were wrong on that was wild car week. We had divisional round plus 256. So mixed results. Yeah, most good. Something not so good. Top my head, though. I think we're up like. Like a point six unit. And go some like that. Now do you have the current ones where they are right now. We do. Okay. State elimination. If you could just run through them too much. A lot of quick damn before we could do rookie of the year. The NBA. This is.

30:47This is pretty interesting. So the Patriots right now to lose in the conference championship game. By the way, I don't see to lose in the divisional round. That's not up. I can't happen. It won't happen. Kill. So that's the problem. What do you mean? It is. Oh, I see in your opinion. I'm like, is this the divisional? I'm going to guess they did list divisional around for. Yeah, they didn't. Oh, they didn't put divisional rounds. Okay. So yeah, right. Because you just bet the game to losing conference championship game plus two twenty five to lose in the Super Bowl plus four fifty to win the Super Bowl six to one. Well, they lose in the conference championship game against Josh Allen. Okay. I think they lose this week, but that's just me. Okay. Next team, we could just rattle through these. These are interesting to me. If there's going to be anything that pops up Seattle Seahawks again, no division rounds listed here to lose in conference championship game plus two fifteen to lose in Super Bowl four to one. Oh, that's an interesting one to win Super Bowl plus two seventy isn't to lose in Super Bowl. The play there at four to one. Yeah, because they'll have two home games. Big price. Yes. That's the best best

31:51so far. That's the best bet to lose in Super Bowl at four to one as the number one C. There are seven or seven and a half point favorite this week. I mean, I'd assume they're a big favorite right? Or whatever, whatever AFC team they face, but that's why you're getting to. No, yeah, that's the, yeah, that's the bet. That's to lose. Yeah, four to one. Yeah. The Rams. Same sort of trajectory of these sims or arc, right? To lose in conference championship game plus one ninety two, lose in Super Bowl five to one to win Super Bowl plus three twenty. Got the same thing. I think if the Rams get that far, they're winning it at all. That's just me. I mean, probably, probably, but still I would say that about the Seahawks do. I just think the price to lose in Super Bowl pricing looks, looks pretty good there. That to me for the Seahawks. I mean, likely those teams are both, but Seahawks and Rams are likely favorites in the Super Bowl. See a good bet. Seahawks Rams likely face each other, right? Yeah, the AFC championship. Let's just say sorry bears. Yeah. Sorry opponents this week. I hope that's not a tip. Texan stage of elimination. This is interesting to

32:53lose in conference championship game plus three twenty to lose in Super Bowl six to one to win Super Bowl plus eight fifty. See again, I think to lose in Super Bowl to me. Now, a lot of people think they're going to get knocked out this week. I don't know. I'm not of that mind. If they get past this week, I think they're extremely live to get to the Super Bowl. So I would only mess with one of those. Let's put it this way. I like these to lose in Super Bowl prices. Yeah. Um, let's do one more. Keep them coming. Prokos to lose in the conference championship game plus two eighty. I like that to lose in Super Bowl plus four fifty to win Super Bowl seven to one. Now they could lose this week. But if you had to bet one of these, I think to lose in conference championship game plus two eighty anything wrong with that. No, that's right. Go to that's where I would go. I think they lose this week, but I really don't think they get by two weeks bears to lose in conference championship game plus two seventy five to lose in Super Bowl 12 to one to win Super Bowl 16 to one. I don't think they win this week, but I mean they've defied the

33:54odds time and time again. No bet for me on this one. If you like them this week, I aren't you just bet them to win the Super Bowl? Niners to lose the conference championship game plus three ninety to lose in Super Bowl 15 to one to win Super Bowl 20 to one and then rounding it out the bills, the Buffalo Billiards to lose in the conference championship game plus two fifty to lose the Super Bowl plus five fifty to win Super Bowl plus six fifty to lose the Super Bowl. Again, coming back with Tim Murray on a numbers game right here at Beeson. Back on the numbers game live from Circular Zorkes, you know, downtown Las Vegas, you know Alexander Kelly Bidlin, we get tweets and be in the book. Y'all the best. Bet on Pete says can we get a gift of Bidlin saying always live? Sure. Did you say always live? I don't

34:54know. I don't know. This is from Marco Romanelli. I always respect your opinions. Love the show. I'm a Ravens fan. See below. Marco, Marco sent me a big notes thing and what he's getting at here is to say that the players constantly came up small for the Ravens in big situations under Harbaugh and you are correct, Marco. There's absolutely blame to go around. Yeah. Flowers multiple costly fumbles. Andrews dropping the two point conversion last year. Lamar 12 turnovers in the playoffs, likely fumbles. Let's go say Lamar Jackson in the playoffs every year. Yeah, he does he does. He does can see the Henry lack of carries. This year was a miss by Harbaugh, but conversely, a flowers doesn't fumble on the last drive. Yeah, no question about it, man. And he says people in Baltimore don't want to admit that maybe the players aren't as good or clutch. So they cast all the blame on Harbaugh. Maybe two playoff teams by double digits this year with their backup quarterback, but like you'd still rather have your players than than John Harbaugh. Yeah. Yeah. Marco, you're

35:55absolutely right. That's true too. That doesn't by the way, I'm not trying. I wasn't trying to disparage John Harbaugh anyway. I'm just saying my excitement level is temperate as compared to some others who are gushing over it. New Jersey, New York is a giant season ticket holder. I hear your criticism and I somewhat agree with it. Here's my counter 44104 in one the last nine years. That's the giants record versus 95 and 54 in the last nine years for Harbaugh. I don't care that he didn't win a ring with Lamar. He's the one coach out there who has the cash aid to reduce Joe Shane's influence. Well, I can't argue with that. And certainly from a giant's perspective, it's a step up. I thought about that part of it too. Like this is the Joe Shane, we thought me and you thought would be gone by now many times. Yeah. Many times. And yeah, as soon as I saw the Harbaugh name come across, it was one of the first things I thought of. Like is that really we're going to work together kindly as head coach GM. If I was Harbaugh, I'd be throwing my weight around a whole lot more. That's for sure. You're getting paid 100,000. Yeah. String fellow hawk lifelong giants fan here. The only upside to the Harbaugh higher is

36:57his stability. Hopefully he brings it a good OCD developed dart really likes to fansky. And then Tronsky reminds everybody for the Australian open podcast that Kelly has rammed into Congress. Three Australian wines is a bonus. That's right. That's right. Jordan's ex top three Australian wines. I should probably text him about it now that I've brought up brought this up so many times. Look at those pictures of the new RFK. I don't think I can be called RFK. Hey, did you see this? Teesh, shelled off thoughts on your skin's new stadium for four billion each. She should be in each seat should have a massage chair in my opinion. Maybe it will. You know, has opinions on RFK stadium? Tim Murray. Yes, he does. He's from the he's seen the reen renderings. He's from the DMV as the kids say today. Tim Murray joins us now courtesy progressive guest line. He's the host of a decent prime time. He's the host of the college football tailgate show. He's the host of the college football betting podcast. How you doing, Tim? I'm good. Yeah. The renderings are pretty exciting. Take the old think you stay on the red line to get to stadium armory. You might have to jump off. I can't

38:00remember if we have to transfer a metro center, but regardless. Got a transfer. Let's bring it back, baby. Yeah. I think you had a transfer. I could be wrong about that. It looks great. Okay. You were a red liner. You were you're a Bethesda red liner. We're on the red line side. Yeah. You keep knocking me into Bethesda. Just got one to school there. It didn't mean I grew up there. I thought you lived in Bethesda. Yeah. We're for a spell. Yes. Mostly in Northwest DC and Silver Spring. Tim is really trying to get them, but does the thing. Not to say anything wrong. By the way, if I move back there, I know straight to Bethesda. I know where you went to school. I won't bring up that. I mean, yeah. You wouldn't want to be over. You wouldn't want to have the athletic superiority embarrass you. Is that what you're saying? Is that what you're saying? Okay. Let's let's talk about the natty. Let's start there. Where do you stand on this, Tim? Kane's eight and a half point dogs at this point, which is interesting because I hear the folks with Miami tickets sort of, you know, and it makes sense, right? It's like, okay, well, I don't want to lay minus 350. How else can I creatively do that? When minus 350 is the only hedge, right? Clean hedge on the other side. Those of us with Indiana

39:04futures, we really ought to take Miami plus the eight and a half and yet I have. I'm hesitant because I just feel there's a scenario where the Hoosiers don't even have an issue with this number. I probably should do the responsible thing and take the eight and a half. What is your thinking on this game, sir? Well, I am, I'm naked when it comes to not right now. I am clothed, but I am naked from a futures standpoint. So I don't have to make that decision. But yeah, if you have a Miami ticket and, you know, something I talked about and I imagine you hit on as well, you know, before the bracket came out and our buddy, Chris, the bear, Felica, many others were championing the merit, Miami should be in. There were some prices at 200 to one or so. So if you have that ticket and pocket, boy, you're feeling pretty darn good. Even if you have to lay a heavy amount of juice on Indiana money line on the flip side, like yourself with Indiana futures. I mean, you talk about it all the time, Gil. And I think you do a really good job doing it is, you know, it's kind

40:06of up to your discretion of, you know, how much money did you put down? Do you? I personally, I would say this. If I had an Indiana ticket, I would have a decent amount on Miami plus eight and a half because I do see a scenario that this is a competitive game. I fully recognize that Indiana is a wrecking ball right now and they have looked just flawless throughout this playoff run. But if Miami, and it's a big if, but if Miami could play a clean game on Monday night, I think this thing is very competitive. And I haven't bet it yet, Gil, because I don't think there's a rush to take the points yet. I know Chris Andrews over at the South Point has a nine right now. We'll see how high it goes. But I think I'm going to end up on Miami taking the points here. Do I think they'll win the game outright? I don't. I think Indiana, I think this is their year. I think they're so buttoned up as a program and it's just it's hard to poke holes in this Indiana team right now, the way that they're playing, how well they are coached, how disciplined they are,

41:08and let's be real. Fernando Mendoza has five incompletions and eight touchdown passes this post season run. But you know, for Miami, if they play like they played against Ohio State where they had zero penalty is which I guess, you know, I recognize as a big if, I think this is a four quarter battle and I can't wait to see Gil, you know, this Miami front against the Indiana defensive line. I think Shannon Dawson, the OC for Miami is one of the better offensive coordinators in the country. I think Bryant Haynes is one of the better defensive coordinators in the country for Indiana. I just I think this is going to be a really, really competitive game assuming that Miami can avoid the turnovers and the mistakes and they didn't really do that against Ole Miss, right? They had 10 penalties in that game. They had a costly turnover. So I think Miami is going to want to hold the ball like they've done successfully in most of these games this post season. If they're able to play their game, I think this is a lower scoring grinder of a game. I think you are correct.

42:13I would be an idiot not to take the plus eight and a half at least to get my outlay back. I think that's how I'm going to play it in the end, but you're right. There's no rush at this point. Hey, Gents, real quick. Tim, you think better chance, better chance. We see a nine and a half for a seven and a half again. Seven and a half. Okay. My bad. That's not my gut. I would be absolutely stunned if we got to 10. That would be, I think that would be a bridge too far. I think that's probably where everyone would jump in. You know, it's interesting, guys. You think back to the cotton bowl on New Year's Eve. It was nine and a half most of the week, right? Miami, Ohio State, and on game day is when you saw that Cain money really hit the market and it closed seven and a half. So my guess would be Kelly to your question. I think we get a little bit of buyback on Miami closer to game time, because I would assume the people who are looking to bet Miami that have the ability to move the market, they're kind of feeling the same where we're all feeling. It's like, well, what's the rush, right? You see some of the betting splits that are out there. You hear some of the discussions that

43:15are out there regarding Indiana doesn't feel like you really need to race to take the points with Miami. Maybe you see a little game day steam on Miami. I think this lands seven and a half eight would be my guess, you know, before kickoff on Monday night. Here's how I know eight and a half is too much and I say this is a guy with an Indiana ticket, but eight and a half is is is gone crazy. Because if we had had you know how we have these discussions Tim before post seasons where we say, okay, what do you think right a hypothetical line? And if we had said, all right, Miami, not only do they get into the playoff right, which was an underdog to begin with, but they advance all the way to the national championship against and then we would have hypothetical opponents. So we said Indiana. Our next sentence would be, well, if Miami got all the way to the championship, we would have a completely different feeling about them at that point. And so these lines would be way more muted, right? The fact that Miami got to the national championship and it's still eight and a half, that's crazy just by that. Does that make sense to you? Yeah, absolutely. And

44:18look, I think there are, I know there are going to be plenty of Indiana fans there. I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana fans outnumber Miami fans, but you still have to factor in the fact they are playing this on their home field. So there is a little bit, not a lot, but just a little bit of that. So Miami closed seven and a half against Ohio State. Now they're eight and a half, even a nine out there. So, you know, could the number be wrong, but Indiana still cover? Of course, I mean, that happens all the time. So that could be the case here, but I ultimately will be on the Canes plus the points, but I'll say this before we wrap, I will not have a money line ticket on Miami. I just, I like the points. I think it's a lower scoring game, but I think Indiana, ultimately, it's their season, man. Signati, smoke those sigs. It's his year. I think you're right, man. Tim, if I move back to the DMV, I'm moving straight to Bethesda. It is a gem, by the way. It's a little expensive now. A little expensive now. That's true. That is very true. Tim Murray, everybody. Thank you, Tim. Appreciate it. See you guys. Are we sure next on a numbers game?