A Numbers Game | February 8, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00This is B.S.N. The SportsBetting Network. The numbers told the story now is down. Swindles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game. With Gila Alexander gone B.S.N. Not just any of numbers game. The numbers game. Big game edition. Gila Alexander, Kelly Viddlin, a tradition unlike any other. Kelly, good morning to you. Good morning. On a Super Bowl Sunday. Super Bowl 60. By the way, a jacket today for me, a tradition unlike any other. Our 10th. Our 10th Super Bowl here at Visa. That's incredible. 10 of the 60. We have been on air now. That's pretty amazing. And you have been here for every single one. Yes. We started out. That was the famous one. Me and you. I've been here for eight. Me and humans were on set with Brent in the halftime of that 28 to three Falcons. Lead over the Patriots so many years ago. So much money on that game. We all know what happened. It's a bad night on the Patriots. It was a glorious. It was a glorious thing.

1:00Here's the deal. For the next two hours, a who's who of numbers game guests will join us. Bill Crackenberger. Steve Fesick. Will Hill. Chris Velika. Who did I forget? Oh, Chris Bennett will actually join us as well. Not a regular on a numbers game. But Chris Bennett, who's going to be in the the risk room. Here at Circa. And we're just going to ask him just basic questions about, you know, what the job entails, how it's different on a day like this. What is he looking for? What are the markers that make him, well, really move his needle, that make him have to adjust things. The two, the two weeks in sort of summation. If you're just landing right now, which I'm sure you're not. But if you are, we got in here the Monday morning after the NFC and AFC championship games, Kelly. And the line was four and a half. And the previous night, the night of the championship games, I bought it down to four with extra juice thinking that this line was going to soar. Yeah, meaning it's going to go this Seattle way. We saw some places on Sunday, open three and a half, right?

2:00So went to four and a half. And it was easily four and a half, five quick. So I was surprised that it didn't soar. And then I was even more surprised. If for the next two weeks, up till this morning, nothing really changed by the way, total 45. But the spread remains four and a half in most places. Here at Circa, it's at four and a half. I have seen Kelly a little bit of movement off shore this morning. There's some five, there's even a five and a half at one of the off shore pillars, if you will. So there's a little movement on this. But generally speaking, and we still have six and a half hours before kickoff. So there's still much time that the night is young as they say. Yeah, there's just looking at the board right now. Like you said, few fives out there still mainly four and a half. I think that's what's kind of interesting. It was how many four and a halfs with a little extra juice. Which, you know, that with these dead numbers, we're usually pretty quick to move to four and a half to five. But it is the Super Bowl and these numbers become a little bit more sharpened. 45, 45 and a half.

3:00I'll tell you more 45 and a halfs on the board right now. Then when we were here on Friday, a lot more 45s then. So it looks like a little over money coming in. And then we've been talking about where we're going to see a muted money line. All we, you know, past two weeks. Not yet. Really circus the only one that even I'm looking at it is mainly 240 to 250 out there. Circle with a minus 225 on the CEO. Yeah, what Kelly is referring to again is the tried and true Super Bowl adage of. Or whatever reason, right? You be the judge probably just because it's the last who robbed the season. Underdog better. So usually take the underdog with the points during the regular season when it comes to the Super Bowl. Tried and true. We don't know why it's a March of the penguins. One penguin takes one step. We don't know why and everybody follows. But everybody takes the not everybody. But most people take the dog on the money line. And what it does is create a muted money line price on the favorite. Generally speaking during Super bowls. So a lot of folks were hoping that this money line would get sub minus 200. That has not happened yet. We don't know that it will between now and again kick off at Santa Clara and Levi Stadium.

4:03At 630 PM Eastern 330 Pacific this afternoon. Now we have a cavalcade of guests. Okay. We should probably spit out everything that we have bet so far. I added a few. I added a few as I teased over Friday. Okay. Well, so in addition to the minus four that I have extra juice on Seattle as the week went on. I decided to add some alt lines as well. I added Seattle minus seven and a half at plus one fifty nine. I added Seattle minus ten and a half at plus two away because I do believe there is going to be one way traffic today. It's going to be terribly wrong. But to me this has eighties early nineties vibes when teams like Washington, San Francisco, the giants, the bears, the cowboys dominated teams like the bills and Broncos. That's what it feels like to me. I could be wrong, but I'm going directional. All of my bets are in this direction. And again, as a north star for those who missed it, Aaron shots the creator of DVOA. Who works at FTN sports. He has these sea hawks as the seventh best team ever since 1978.

5:06That's as far back as he's gone. And he has these Patriots is having played the third easiest schedule since 1978 and has them as the sixteenth worst team to ever make a Super Bowl since 1978. That's out of 96 teams. Now, you don't have to believe that sacredly. Plus, there's also been four worst teams that have made Super Bowl that actually won the Super Bowl. That doesn't mean the Patriots can't win the Super Bowl, right? But it is a good sort of guideline for me anyway as I approach this game, whether I believe it sacredly or not. So in addition to the minus four minus 128, the minus seven and a half plus 159 and the minus 10 and a half plus 208. I also took some Sam Darnell to win MVP Kelly at plus 125. Thinking the path for a sea hawk to win this other than Darnell, if the sea hawks win is very thin. I think voters will bend over backwards to close the narrative on Sam Darnell's career where they've crapped on him. For his whole career, really, including last year when he was good and had the two bad games at the end. I also threw in the drew dents at play.

6:06Sea hawks win in a shutout 50 to one. Let me skip the anthem one for a second. I did it. So those are the sea hawks focused directional bets. Yep. Okay. The other bets I've made, well, I'll actually start with the national anthem. So I think I'm going to be Owen one before the game even starts based on reading the tea leaves offshore. Charlie Puth is doing the national anthem. I went over 122 seconds based on him having a choir and him really taking this seriously. It reopened. It was taken off the board and reopened at 115 yesterday. Wow. Now it's 116. And where did you after you bet that it jumped up to like 125? Yes, it went from 122 to 125. Then 10 seconds less. Maybe somebody caught a rehearsal or somebody found out something. Who knows? Maybe they didn't. Maybe it was just a hunch. I don't know. And then two other bets I made that are they're not directional. But Jersey number of first touchdown score under 11 and a half at minus 140. What that gives me is Kenneth Walker, Jackson Smith and Jigbaugh, Cooper Cup, Drake May, Keeshaan

7:13Booty, Stefan Diggs, who would I leave out? Somebody. Anyway, give me give me a lot of options under 11 and a half minus 140. And then Kelly, the last one will get went to years here. Three unanswered scores. This also doubles as the the prop that Flumix is better is the most year after your new ish betters. Three unanswered scored. Reunanswered scores. The yes is the one and minus money. It's minus 155. Most new better say to themselves. This is the AFC champion. This is the NFC champion. These are the two best teams at football or at least two of the best teams at football. Three unanswered score. Scores seems highly unlikely. By the way, exception, two point conversions and extra points. But in fact, it happens all the time. So most people look at that prop and they think the minus money should be on the no. When in fact, it is correctly priced on the yes, don't let this get higher than minus 170. Glad you said that. I didn't bet it. But when I was doing yesterday was as I made fun of on Friday, right? Smith, the multiple hours killed to go through all the different wonderful apps we have

8:14out here in the past to try to figure out. It is a full time job. It's incredible. The finalized bets for today. I was surprised when I saw a minus 145 on that prop out there. The three unanswered score. Yeah. Real low to me. I saw a minus 160. Yeah, just a heads up shop around with like with everything to shop around shop around. Like with everything. It's very true. I say to that tone though, because it's so much harder for the Super Bowl and I'm aware of that. Oh, wow. Look at you with a small print. I did. Yeah, yeah. I added away here where we'll start Seahawks bets. I am absolutely with you. You and I. Seahawks paid off well for NFC for me. Six to one. Rolled over a lot of that to play on the Super Bowl with them. I will start with one that's actually not listed. If you're into the NBA at all, kill out of Xander, the Miami Heat get started here in a couple hours. I'm doing a heat money line and with a par light with the Seahawks money line. So I am starting there Miami Heat going up the against those Washington Wizards today that just have so much to play for as they try to improve their draft side note.

9:15What an epic tankathon. We're going to have. It's going to be great. Man. It's going to be awesome. So many of these teams. Okay. So it started with that. And then laid five and a half with Seahawks sold that out to 102 Seahawks nine and a half at plus 190. So I'm joining you on the old. That's the old. That's what I stopped at though. Nine and a half could have got higher. I'm going to choose to stay there. Seahawks first quarter, laying a half point at plus 110. Also, we talked about it for the past two weeks, Gail Manu waited probably a little too long. Super Bowl. Super Bowl MVP, Sam Darnel plus 125 right there. And then, you know, what we talked about this with Warren Sharp earlier in the week of kind of these opening drives and Jackson Jackson Smith and Jigba's involvement and kind of lack thereof. And it's kind of something that I had been noticing and tracking throughout the season as well. So I'm going to take a stab on a couple of a couple of fun ones here for the first Seahawks reception. Kenneth Walker, the third at plus 450, AJ Barner at five to one for the Seahawks first reception. Basically, I was born and detailed on the show on Wednesday, JSN really ends up getting

10:16more involved as the game goes on. Not as much often on that first drive where he is targeted by the defense. So often Steve Fezig will have something to say about first, anything later in the show. We're going forward to that. Looking forward to everything. Steve's guy coming and crack as well added bets. I know. Today over 33 and a half rushing yards minus 120 bet that pretty much right at open. I know it's gotten up to like 37 and a half right now. Drake May more passive temps than Sam Arnold Matt Brown brought this one up on Friday. I've been considering may pass attempts, right? This is the same sort of thing. If we think the Seahawks are up, it's going to be playing catch up for the Patriots. It means it's going to mean air in the ball out by Drake May. Another, another couple then that we had talked about earlier in the week with guests. Little sacks over five and a half think it's been a well document. I think Seattle is going to be able to get after Drake May. And look, I startled in this past protection has had issues as well holding off sacks. I took the over on the total sacks for the game at five and a half with you on the first

11:16touchdown Jersey number. And then another Matt Brown one, he had brought up total players with a reception under 13 and a half. I think very well documented through the year, the heavy concentration to a limited number of receivers that Seattle runs through. I don't think New England is far behind with that as well. So 13 and a half going under on that. We didn't necessarily think we're going to have a lot of bets, but this is what happens when you have two weeks. Yeah. Waiting for one ball game. Can't wait. And you talked to a lot of smart people, right? Yeah. You do. And other people give you ideas for sure. Speaking of that, smart people, Cavalcade begins on the other side. Will Hill, the host of the should of bet more podcasts, all of his Super Bowl bets next. Some of the numbers game, special edition right here at Vs and V sports betting now. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets, tap the link and see

12:18why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Vs and pro. If you are betting the Super Bowl, and I'm guessing if you're listening to us right now, you are. Vs and is built for you, Vs and the sports betting network or the sports betting network wherever you want to say it, designed to help betters make smarter, more informed decisions. Today is the final day to save $60 on a Vs and pro annual subscription with promo code ANG ANG as in a numbers game with Vs and pro you get expert best bets real time betting splits from draft games and circa AI powered prop tools and full access to Vs and shows anytime on the watch app visit Vs and dot com slash subscribe and use promo code a NG. This is the portion of the show that we begin to just roll out all of our I don't want to say our favorites right because then we leave out somebody somebody's going to by the way, Jason Winegarten in the building at some point, too, he's he's he's he's he's watching

13:22it. He's watching the game at circa. I was like, what are you getting? Well, actually, he's not in town yet. He flew in from LA. So I was trying to get him. But he he won't get here in time. But it begins what I'm getting at is it begins many of our favorites with Will Hill who joins us right now. You can follow him on Twitter at not the will hill. That's two E's on the V. He is the host of the should have bet more podcast also one of the stars, of course, of the Megapod rights at Fox Sports dot com will happy Super Bowl Sunday. Sir. Boys, what's going on? I've, uh, yeah, I saw Jason's tweet yesterday. He said he's going to have one and he put in parentheses. The number one beer and he's going to make two Super Bowl MVP bets. I think one beer is enough for Jason Winegarten, I, I think any more than one would be up. It would be too much. I hopefully Jason can contain himself. Not to step on your time. Can I, can I reveal one of Jason suit two Super Bowl bets? I hope, I hope it's the one I was going to ask about as one. I know one of the two Super Bowl MVP, do we have a flyover pick from him? Oh, he did give me flyover intel. There's some kind of snafu. There's, he has no bet. There is no, yeah, I'll give you the exact wording on that. But, uh, Cooper Cup 100 to one, a typical kind of Jason Winegarten bet, all right.

14:27Cooper Cup 100 to one. He's all in, baby. All right, which brings us to you. Well, let's start with, and again, you've been on twice since the championship game. So make it a third time. Let's start with Sam Donald MVP. I'll let you have the floor. What's your reasoning? Yeah, it's amazing. It feels like those title games were about a month ago. It just feels like there's been so much time between these games. I like Donald MVP. I think the narrative is there. I think very rarely do you get a situation where the, the favorite is a minus two 30 on the money line. And you have a quarterback where you can still get plus money. I know it's come down a little bit, but in that plus one 20 ish range. I still think he's good. He's on his 15. Uh, you know, he's a great story. The media seems to like him. And you have a team that's favorite by four and a half that I actually think he's going to win the game here. So to me, Donald, I know, you know, people want to go viral on the internet and give out the 75 hundred to one and pick a defensive player pick, you know, Rashid Shahid, I get that and people want to bet a little to win a lot. And this is not that. This is not, you don't get the style points for that. But value is value.

15:27And I do think there's value here. By the way, here is your again, Will. Sorry, this is terrible form. But since it's brought up, uh, no one has seen any fly over props. If there are F 22, uh, F 22, twos. I don't know what I can say that F 22s have been pulled. From the Super Bowl fly over, um, due to quote operational assignments, according to the military time. Wow. Okay. There you go. There's your fly over update. Will, I'm sorry. Okay. So I was just going to say just quickly and we talked about this. I think the first time I was on between games here, information is just harder to come by. We hear whispers about the gain or a maybe you know, you hear whispers about the time of the anthem. I just think these books, especially, you know, the skin, some of these offshores that book it, they know, like information travels so fast. Now they got burned within full last year when the, the set list leaked. I just think these books, they're going to take their ball and go home, which I understand. It's information based and the information gets out there. So they don't really want to book it. I sense less of a menu, less of an appetite to, uh, to book all this stuff. This year, it had been a few days since I've checked in on Gatorade color.

16:27Will is right. We've got yellow, lime green all the way down to plus 145. Yeah. I mean, this is a bit of apples and oranges, but in a world where court signing is that much more difficult, right? When you're actually at a game watching the play in front of you and books are moving just as quick as you can almost see them. You can imagine how this is, this is sort of slower, uh, with set list leaking and that kind of thing. All right. Let's get to a couple of your props. Um, so Sam Darnold MVP, how about, uh, what are you doing with Kenneth Walker? Under rushing yards, I think you can poke holes here in this Patriots path to this game, to the Super Bowl. But you can't poke holes in their run defense. They held the Vidal and the first wild card game there under three yards per carry, Harvey under three yards per carry. Texans had 48 rushing yards of the team. They played really good run defense here. And you never know about running back usage. They could go to Halani, uh, the game scrape, you get a game script. You get away from you. The, you could be an injury situation there. There's a lot of ways to winning under. I think Walker getting in the mid seventies against this elite Patriots run defense. I think is unlikely.

17:28I think Cocks are going to move ball, which I think they will. It's going to have to be through the air. So Walker under rushing yards. I know it's been a pretty popular one. That is one, though. I, uh, I agree with I endorse that one. All right. So you did not play the game total, but you did play a team total. Yeah. And it's funny. I can't of all the shows I've listened to read everything in these two weeks. I don't think I've heard anybody make a case for the over. And I'm not going to make a case for it either. I still lean under, but I prefer the Patriots team total under. And to me, this is the crux of the game, the crux of the handicap. I don't think the Patriots can block them up front. I think the worst unit on the field is going to be the Patriots offensive line. You can pick your number, pick your juice with this. Under 19 and a half is even money at draft kings. 20 and a half, you've got to lay a little juice. I think it's minus one 25 if you're, you know, an appetite to get through a key number and lay a little more juice. I think under 21 and a half is minus 155. But I think the Patriots offense is going to struggle. They've struggled all postseason. I know some of that defense is weather, all of that stuff. Seattle's really good on defense. I'm a little worried about even worry.

18:28Yeah, he's obviously a very important player and who knows what the ankle, but the Patriots essentially getting the three touchdowns here, I think is unlikely. They have not moved the ball well all postseason. So I will go Patriots team total under 20 and a half. And I do lean towards under for the game, but it's just funny how nobody. And I think nobody seems to say, you know what? I think this is going to be over. I think we're going to see some points. So you never, you never want to be on the same size as everybody else. But I'm curious if you guys agree with that, but it seems like it is all under a pass from everyone I've listened to. It's so true. Yeah, I don't, I don't think we've had one person said, no, I could very true. I also, I'll even go the other side though. I don't know that I've heard that many people either say I'm heavy on the under. I feel like it's been a lot of what will just said. And I've said it for two weeks, too. Like yeah, lean to the under, but I'm not, not playing that one either. Yeah. So there's a game script involved. I would imagine in your head, though, if you're, so you're thinking a certain way about this game, obviously you're a, you're darn old MVP bet sort of tips us off on that to begin with. How are you playing Travion then? Over receiving yards, this one has been bumped up.

19:30But I talked about I think a couple weeks ago when I was on with you guys, I still like it. Now it moved from two and a half to six and a half. That's a pretty big bump. That's, I mean, you don't want to be, you know, playing four yards, the worst of a, especially a small number, but there have been whispers that Patriots practice. They have had a heavy emphasis here on the screen game. And that Henderson could be more involved than people might think. That's the reason this has been bumped up. So, you know, six and a half is a, is different than two and a half. I understand that, but I still like over here. I think he could get a couple of catches and you need those explosive plays. I know he's been kind of in and out of the passing game and in on the lineup in general, but you need some plays against Seattle. And I think Henderson's the guy that, that can bust one for 40 or 50. I am not going to go as far as Steve Fezick did the other day and call Ramonjay Stevenson. I think it was a fat tub of that's correct exactly. It's an unfortunate term. It's very best. I thought it was a good measure. How accurate it is, it's a little aggressive. Henderson over receiving yards. I didn't end up on any of those prop bets. I'm, I'm interested in that as well, though, Will. I think that there is, like, look, he's your one of your most explosive players, right?

20:34Like you're going to need probably a home run hit at some point here. So whether it's, yeah, receiving your rushing yardage, something. I think Henderson overs a probably a good look. Did you will not then bet the side at all in this game? I've got NFC from middle of the year. A couple of times I bet I kind of overbed it. So I'm rooting for the NFC. I did buy a little back on Patriots, plus the points just because I, I don't want to lose as much as I have on NFC and I figured I made these bets with the plan. And I talked about it multiple times this year with the plan that we're going to get to the suitable and the NFC is just better than the AFC. And there's going to be a hedge opportunity and an our opportunity and you can buy back. So I was hoping for a little more than five with the way the NFC versus AFC was lining up. And Denver being in this game obviously would have helped. But when you can lay minus one 15 minus one 20 on a money line in the middle of the year, then come back on plus five, even for part of it, that is a pretty profitable middle. That's right. So while watching this game, do you hold true to that? Are you like, let's go NFC? Do you do that kind of thing? All right, well, you're no, nothing. Yeah, I got my, I got my NFC NFC hat that Kelly let me borrow.

21:35Yeah, look, it's, it is weird to watch a game when you have a middle where you want to, this team to do well, but not too well. So you just kind of forget about it until the end and hope it stays close and then hopefully Seattle, you know, tie game with three minutes to go. Seattle can be in a position where they can milk the clock and kick a few goals. Time expires something like that. That's the part we never talk about, right? We talk about all these things in theory during the week, but then we rarely talk about the conflict in your brain, having to endure three hours of that is, is never a pleasant experience. Until the end, if it works out, obviously. All right, so then bottom line this for us. What just in terms of like will hills needs today, bedding wise, you have most on the Super Bowl, you know, games related stuff itself. Do you have more on, I guess it's a smaller college basketball slate, but I'll throw in will you have more on college basketball? Or will you have more on some random thing happening on a prediction market? It's a slower day. I did bet the commercial, I'm drawing a blank on the commercial. I think I tweeted about it or retweeted about it.

22:35We had Derbify a former circle winner on the other day. He promoted a bet he likes in terms of a commercial, so I can retweet that. But it's not, I didn't go crazy. I would say six to eight bets, something like that. I'll do some in game college basketball. So I don't know if that answers your question, but I'm not going to go overboard here. It's just one football game. I'm going to have some bets. There's going to be enough to get a little sweat going, but I'm not going to be sweating every single play would support too. And there will be much food at the Hill Residence today. That I would lay any over it. Bet the over. That's right. Thank you, Will. Happy Super Bowl Sunday, man. Appreciate it. See you guys. Thanks. Will Hill, star of the Megapod. Should have bet more podcast host, of course. And Vison Stullward probably shouldn't have led with that one. Steve Fezick. All of his theories, all of his thoughts, all of his bets, including new ones, the prop of the year, he says, next. A numbers game on Fez said these sports betting network.

23:35Hey, Kelly, stop paying full price for gas. I keep telling you this. Okay. Download the free upside app. Earn real cash bag every time you fill up. It's quick. It's easy. And it's actually really adding up folks. Drivers earning $200 to $300 a year. Just buying the gas they already needed. Use promo code Sunday for $0.25 back per gallon on your first take. And cash out anytime to your bank account or eGift cards like Amazon. Download the free upside app now and use promo code Sunday for a limited time. $0.25 for gallon bonus offers vary by user and location. See upside.com for details. We get tweets. I know it's a Sunday, but we still get tweets, Kelly. So we don't, we don't leave folks behind. Amen. Montreal, Max. You know, how can we, how can we be talking about the Super Bowl right now? We have multiple courts of opening around action. And the women's tennis tournament in Dubai. And I, excuse me, in Doha, caught her right now. I know believe me at two bets overnight. I'm with you, man. I will be running home after this to sweat out the end of golf. Trust me, I had two bets overnight in Doha.

24:36Split them by the way, both dogs. So the small little profit spends. Hey, guys, I'm pulling back by prop bets this year. Just to defend special teams touchdown Seattle and Hunter Henry anytime touchdown. But went bigger on the side. Seattle minus four and a half. And under good luck. Happy Super Bowl. You two spent and Scott C. Did Jason put in a phone call to the Pentagon to get the flyover info? Well, once again, we have flyover info. And apparently there are no props anywhere. Does anybody even see a flyover prop? Oh, that's why I'm going to ask. I'll check. I'll check what we're talking to this happening. But yes, Jason is on it. But it's probably probably related to what you told to what he kind of told you. No, we have 22. He said, that's it. Ladies and gentlemen, he is responsible for the Twitter feed. Fesick sports. That is not what I would put forward as the headline. I would say mainly he's the two-time winner of the Hilton super contest. And winner of many other contests all around Vegas through the years. The reason I say that about Twitter is because he's not very nice on Twitter. But in real life, probably a little better. Steve Fesick, everybody joins us now. courtesy of the progressive guest line.

25:37How you doing, Steve? Happy Sunday. Happy Super Bowl Sunday. I'll take it, Gail. Thank you so much for having me on. What a great job you guys are doing here this Sunday morning. Despite maybe being a little groggy from work in 60 hours a week. Okay, we want to do a we want to do a Steve Fesick sort of greatest hits here. And we'll get to what you are calling the best prop bet of the day. We'll crescendo to that. But just some things that we've talked about with you the last couple of weeks, Steve. Because I think it's worth hearing for folks who are tuning in for the first time. One, the distance are she said the length of time between the coin toss and the kickoff. Talk to us about that. All right. So you have a window of opportunity. They're going to have the coin toss. Someone will win the coin toss. They will defer the other guys will get the ball. Boom, go. At that point, a lot of books will leave open their entire prop menu. So you can whoever's getting the ball, bet them the score first, bet them to in the first quarter, bet the other guys in the third quarter. If you can, bet them to punt first.

26:39It's one year I was able to bet the team that was receiving the ball to receive the ball. 100% prop bet. So it does happen. Okay. And that's well, let's talk about the eight of clubs method. What did you mean by that earlier the week? All right. Eight of clubs method basically believes that whatever the numbers were last night, they've been betting it for like 10 days. And those are like the most solid, rock solid, correct numbers you'll ever see. And now the public is coming in and they're ramming and jamming and they're betting overs and they're betting players to score touchdowns, things like that. So any player that gets steamed today, especially a major player, a JSN, a Sam Darnold Pass yard, any number that goes up for something like that that's a good story. Hunter Henry. Everyone is betting hunter Henry over and you're hearing that's the sharp play. That's what the pros are betting. Now all the pros would have bet that already. So you fade those line moves and you bet the opposite.

27:40You go against the line move right before the game starts. That's the eight of clubs method. And why do we call it the eight of clubs specifically just at a curiosity? Because that's the card that the mentalist guessed. No, no, it's my friend. I like to be the the eight of clubs because it's the most nondescript card in the deck and he like Leon is his name. He likes to remain anonymous. Sorry, Leo. All right. Remember the eight of clubs was underneath my butt. Steve, let's just clarify that. Let's make sure it was in the proximity of your butt. That's right. Last thing in terms of theory before we get to your bets here was your thoughts on needle in haystack bets. Hey, them. And you know what? Everyone wants to be the the Valentine's Day is coming up. Everyone wants to be romantic and they want to romanticize the big win. And so they want to give out the 20 to one, the 50s or one, the needle in the haystack that player discorpers, the kicker to win the MVP. You're not going to win making bets like that. There are a lot of fun for five dollars.

28:41But don't think you have an advantage. The house big is just too high on those bets, such as what will the exact final score be? All right, coming up here, Steve's prop of the day. But let's start with two before we get to that. One is one that you shared earlier in the week. New England second half points. You are going over nine and a half minus 125. Explain. Yeah, so lots of like about this. I always like higher scoring second half versus first tabs. I also like the favorite to be a little more likely to extend a lead in the first half versus just what the second half scoring is. And I think New England will may well start slow. But New England at nine and a half where you win with 10, that is solid values. So New England over nine and a half points second half. All right, here's one that you hadn't shared with us. But I guess you've added since your last appearance. Longest field goal minus 150 versus total points scored.

29:42I like this. Yes, this is over at station casino. I just confirmed that. So that's available. Excuse me, South Point. South Point casino and several other books as well. I got to give a shout out to Frank B alerted me to this. So I am slightly aggregating this. I'm sorry, but I'm giving him credit. But this is an example, Gail. I like field goals. Longest field goal over 49. I lean to the game to go under 45 and a half. So why not pair those two bets that I like already. And now it's a pick them and I can go ahead and back. Longest field goal. I like it. By the way, aggregations are fine as long as you credit the person. Stephen, well done. Some other Stevie bets from our earlier in the week. By the way, Longest touchdown Seattle minus 140. New England total punts over three and a half minus 150. Total rush yards in the game under 225. New England total points second half. We just talked about that one over nine and a half. So I don't want to repeat myself there. But also Drake may over six and a half rushes and Drake may over 36 and a half

30:43rushing yards. What's your thinking on the Drake May ones? I really think that new England's not going to be able to, they're going to try to throw. I don't think they're going to be effective throwing. I know they're not going to be able to run. So I just think he's going to get several scrambles and the Seattle defense has been prone to give up some long yardage. However, I do think the over six and a half is better than the over 35 and a half. All right, Steve. Prop bet of the year. This is what we've been waiting for. I'm, first of all, I didn't know we were going to get this this morning, but you really are excited about this. What is it? 100% and by the way, other than the field goal prop with Frank B. All right, Kevin O'Neill did help me out with that rush prop under 225. I have originated all my props and I have 19 of them that I played, you know, but this is my favorite of them all. This is then thrashed Kings right now. Total kickoff returns. Set up over six and a half minus 125. Go, go. We are betting over six and a half minus 125.

31:44Now warning, there's a little math involved. We expect actually more than 10 kickoff, like 10.25. The over under on total kickoff is under 10. F big to the under. But let's call it 10. If we get 10 kickoff, we need seven kickoff returns to win. But what's this? About 80% of kickoffs were returned this year with the kickoff rule change. And I checked both these teams and they're both right around that 80% level. So I had to expect 10 kickoffs. Eight of them will be returned. In fact, I am guaranteeing that there will be exactly 10 kickoff and eight returns. And we will cash over six and a half minus one 25. You get that Kelly 80% of 10 is eight. And this is I got it. We hold on. Yeah, check and it's lined at six and a half. So he's going over. I haven't checked. Prop of the year from Steve Fezig. All right, Steve, we only have about a minute, you know, 90 seconds left. So your day is just getting started then based on some of your earlier comments. Like you make a ton of bets in that last.

32:44Well, I don't, I don't want to say the last hour. But maybe it is the last hour. How does this go for you from here? So for the next two and a half hours, I'll be copying. I mean, I'll be consulting with Todd Wichina on what's in the live fat star. And putting them in and basketball. And then right around one o'clock, one 30. I'll start to really look because I got to let these things move and roll. And then I will look to go ahead and fade the big line boost. And then I want to I'll wind up with a whole bunch of winning profits. Like last season winners Whitman, Price and Hadad. That's King and the Maui Sungale. That's a running man reference. Wow. So in just a clear right. So you're not going to be out and about at sportsbooks. This is you at your house. So shewing your wife and son away. What are you eating, Steve? Yeah, what do you know? I mean, this is this is you at your home going crazy, right? Yeah, I don't eat nothing. And then right like early in the second quarter, I finally bail. And I'm going to head to the south point of what's the game with friends at the south point. So you don't even mind missing some of the game. You're that your work is done. You're like, I'll just catch it when I catch it at the south point.

33:46Oh, I mind it, but you can't work 24 7 365 days a year. So I got friends in town. So boom, we're going to watch the game together. Steve, Isaac, everybody, two time, only two time, Westgate, super contest champ. And of course, uh, caching once again in the most recent circa millions. T nine, typhoon, nine. Where'd it go, Steve? Steve, thank you. Steve, go. Good luck betting. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Thanks. And good luck to all of you. Steve, Isaac, everybody, again at physics sports. Follow at your own peril. Chris Bennett from the circa risk group. This will be a treat. Next, on the other side, it's a numbers game. Special big game edition right here at Vsyn. These sports betting network. A numbers game on Vsyn. These sports betting network back on a numbers game. Special big game edition here on this Super Bowl Sunday. Gill Alexander, my little buddy Kelly Middleton, alongside everybody on this Super Bowl 60 morning.

34:49Five hours or so before the Super Bowl starts five and a half hours. I just want to read a couple tweets. One Paul Zhang Kelly on Twitter, uh, who says, uh, he says, just say, and I get used to A and G on a football Sunday. Yeah, okay, don't say that. Well, you get it for the rest of the season. That's right. But for the rest of the good point, Kelly. That's absolutely right. And then one of our get one of our favorite guests who isn't with us today, Drew Dinsick, uh, we were being alerted about a picture. He just put out. He's at the, he's in Italy with wine and food in front of mountains on a balcony. This kid. Yeah. Sounds about right. Good for him. Uh, about right. This is not one of our regular guests. Not because we don't like him, but because you just isn't one of our regular guests. I think the last time I saw Chris Bennett was when we, uh, did a panel together at Bet Bash a couple of years back. If I'm not mistaken, uh, Chris is the sports book director here at Circa. You can follow him on Twitter at the very clever bet. Chris, though with an age, we should point out. Twitter handle not to be confused with another bet. Chris, Chris joins us now from the risk room.

35:50How are you doing, Chris? Doing well. How are you guys doing? Doing very well. Can we just start with that basic thing? Let's just assume nobody knows anything about what you do. What is the role of a risk room? Generally speaking. So we are coming to you live from the room where we do, uh, all of the risk management for circus sports. And that's six states, including here in Nevada and, uh, for our destination sports book at Circa. We are the ones setting the odds for all of the, uh, markets that we're offering. We are booking everything here. We are making the decision on what the point spread total money line should be on the Super Bowl, along with everything else. And, uh, it's a tremendous challenge because this element of gaming, you're not guaranteed to win. We need to have a certain skill set to do pricing and bookmaking so that we are going to be a winner over the long run, uh,

36:52but there is no guarantee of that. And so we are very much dialed in in this room to risk management, uh, not a customer facing position. We need to really know the sports, the teams, the odds, the probabilities inside and out so that we can put our, put ourselves in a position to make money. The difference between a normal football Sunday and normal NFL Sunday and this a Super Bowl Sunday, I would imagine is, is massive. Maybe the headline is what you just said, which is, uh, this could be a big, you know, reading between the lines. This could be a big loss if you don't manage things carefully. But what is generally like the biggest difference between this and a normal Sunday? So you're going to see a lot more varied customers that are placing bets on Super Bowl Sunday because this is a unique event and Las Vegas is a destination for the Super Bowl. We offer far more markets for the game itself than we do any other game of the year.

37:57One of those that we really like to highlight here are the Circa Squares, which is, uh, a way to bet on the squares that you can get at a traditional Super Bowl party. Uh, you might go to and here you can choose what squares you want to bet on instead of being dealt a square at random at a party you might go to. So it's a, it's a whole different game, a lot more betting volume than any other game during the year usually easier for the sportsbook to manage than other games over the course of the year. You take a lot of bets where you don't need to move the line. And as a result, you expect to do better on this game than any other game over the course of the year. Let's, uh, let's put a pin in that in that squares thing because I want to get to what your specific role is versus your teams. But so with Circa specifically, early in the two week period

38:57between the championship games and the Super Bowl, you guys got a big bet on the money line on the Patriots. Did that kind of guide much of what happened afterwards in the next two weeks? Chris for you guys. So as of the conference championships concluding two weeks ago, we knew our position on the Super Bowl futures, which were good for the Patriots, but pretty bad for the Seahawks. So in taking a large wager on the Patriots money line for the Super Bowl, what that did is it evened out our position on the game to a degree. And the bets on the Patriots money line were manageable for us to work with. We knew if we needed to write bets on the Seahawks from that point forward, we could probably do it at a favorable price, but it actually wasn't that difficult of a decision to take the big bet fairly early on on the Patriots given the futures position we had.

40:02That makes that makes tons of sense. Um, okay. So you alluded to the squares. We were talking a little bit off air. You mean Kelly before this, um, you seem pretty calm, which is I guess a lot of people might be like, wow, I thought it'd be more frenzy, but you were saying earlier that you you delegate a lot of this. You you have your own jurisdiction that you pay attention to. So yeah, this will be our seventh Super Bowl at circus boards. And for the first few years, I was doing most of the heavy lifting when it came to our Super Bowl offering. And over time, I've handed that off to others on the team and had a smaller workload for myself directly. But two markets I've done, uh, all seven years now. And one of them is the circus squares, which I mentioned earlier. And seven years ago, I had no point of comparison for what the odds should be. Uh, I just had somebody help me out with some historical data on what the last

41:04digit of teams scores were at the end of the first quarter, first half, third quarter. And the end of the game to help me with probabilities. And I it took me many hours, but I came up with something that first year. And it worked out pretty well. And over the last few years, uh, that has gotten easier, but it's still a challenge, especially if you have a point spread in total, that's an outlier, which we don't have this year. So that's a good thing for my ability to do a good job of pricing that market. Uh, and people love betting the squares. And so we try to have those available as soon as possible. We put them out, uh, by about one o'clock on the Monday after the conference championship game. So they have almost two full weeks to bet the circus squares. And then the other market that I'm still managing because, uh, it gets a lot of action and it's fun is the MVP market. Uh, this is probably my favorite awards market in any sport. And people just love

42:10betting Super Bowl MVP. What I think that's probably interesting to most people, right? Like, you know, everybody expects, oh, it's probably all buttoned up, but you, you admit you were working in like sort of learning on the job with squares and that kind of thing. Here's what I really want to know. What could happen today? So right now we have, what is it now? It's five and a half hours roughly before kickoff. What could happen, Chris, between now and kickoff that would just send you into a frenzy? That's a good question. Uh, and injury was hard. It's something like that. Yeah, it would probably have to be something, you know, outside of like the normal betting activity you could ever see. And, you know, you hate to even utter the words, but, you know, if one of the teams got into a bus accident on the way to the stadium or, or something crazy, or they had like all had food poisoning from when they're dinner last night and like they could

43:10barely get onto the field and play stuff like that. Like we'd have to take everything off the board probably. If that information, you know, came out before the game started and we'd be scrambling to figure out what markets we can put back up and at what limits they should be offered. That would be an absolute nightmare. Obviously, we don't want anything bad to happen to the players and teams, but also selfishly, yeah, for us running our business and trying to react to that sort of thing would be a really unfortunate thing to have to deal with. Well, last question then because along those lines, so it's one thing to get that Patriots bet. And you already set up as you pointed out the way that your books were managed, the Patriots bet actually was beneficial for you, guys, based on your position at that time. What if someone rolls up here in an hour, Chris, someone who's off the street, you didn't get any, you know, inkling beforehand any warning. And they're like, yeah, I want to put a million on, I don't know, either side, right? What's the

44:13cutoff point where for you guys, it's like, we can't take it anymore because there's no way we can we can balance. Is there a cutoff point? There would be, yeah, we've said that we'll take a million dollar bet from anybody on the game. And specifically that would be either side of the point spread or to win a million on the Seahawks money line or if someone wanted to risk a million on the Patriots money line. But we're not going to take that five minutes before kickoff because we just wouldn't have time to put ourselves in a reasonable position if it's that close to kickoff. So we probably need at least an hour before kickoff to promise anybody a bet of that size. And as it gets closer to kickoff, we're going to have to scale that down a bit. Chris, really appreciate your time. I know it's a busy day, man. Thank you so much. You're welcome. Chris