A Numbers Game | February 6, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story of the always down. Swandals, idiots who believe in athletics. This is a numbers game with Kill Out of Exander gone. Be sent. Hour number three of a numbers game in peace in these sports betting at work. Be sent dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV of course, Series X of Channel 158. Kill Out of Exander. Kelly's behind the glass. He had to vacate his chair because ladies and gentlemen it's time for Physics Friday. Let's do it. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physics Friday. Starring. Starring the lovely and talented Steve Fezick everybody. Who could be followed at physics sports at your own peril? Not really a nice guy on Twitter. Kind of okay in real life though. How you doing, man? Oh, I was just lighting somebody up the other day on off not on Twitter, but off a Twitter. What do you mean? We're in a slimy business so someone was saying they were they were having a winning NFL year

1:00because they were above 500. What they were minus for there. And I was like, you know, just say you're above 500. That's I'm fine. What it was and what they did fixed. So I'm happy. Okay. There you go. Effecting change. There you go. All right Steve. Super Bowl 60. You got a lot of props for us. You got a lot of theory for us. Let's start with a little theory, which you probably said on the show before, but it's worth repeating, which is let's discuss, first of all, why the hour before the Super Bowl is the time to make a lot of bets. All right. And I'm going to encapsulate all this into what I call the eight of clubs betting method, which is after my friend Leon, who like to be referred to as the eight of clubs, the most nondescript card in the deck. He wants to stay under the radar. All right. You know it's interesting about this before you even continue when owes the mentalist was on the show at a new pack of cards. I picked the eight of clubs through it under my butt. And he guessed eight of clubs. What does that say

2:00about me? You want to stay under the radar? Just like Leon. And he knew I was trying to stay under that. It's all making sense to me. There was probably some sensor or something. No, no, no, no, no. No, the cards were marked. We bought it in the Southpoint shop. It had nothing to do with it. All right. They might be in on it. I'll have to get back to you on that. But impressive. Especially not just in your pocket, but in your butt. You know, that's not in my butt, Steve, under my butt. Whatever kind of show is this? All right. Well, the theory is that the market is semi efficient. And what happens inevitably is that a lot of betters come in and the public money being bet on things like the Super Bowl. It's one of the few times the year it will dwarf what the pros are betting. Now I get it. Rufus P body can come in and just slam down, you know, 50,000 on something and fix it. But for the most part, there will indeed be very, very popular play is that everyone is recommending earlier in the betting cycle.

3:00And it's the good story. So I guess you could say Drake may rushing yards and attempts over good story, JSN. Reception yards, good story over. And inevitably those numbers are sure to drift because when everyone's betting them, they go higher and higher and higher. So the eight clubs method is you wait till the numbers kind of stabilize like one week into the betting cycle. It's a little like to do this, but you could still do it today. 90% of the money isn't going to be bet until the next 48 hours. Right down every single player prop number what it is now. Lock it in your drawer and Sunday morning one hour before open it up and now start updating with the new numbers and wherever you see the numbers going higher. They're being inflation on these popular plays and players shop around get the very best number and fade it. Go the other way. So JSN goes from 90 past reception yards all the way up to 98. And that one book has a 100. That is a no-brainer. You

4:00go under 100. And the beauty of this, you don't even have to think. Well, yeah. Thank you. Got to do a lot of work. But the point is you're letting the market dictate what you're betting. Wait a minute, but didn't you work the first two bets you made a specifically Drake may over six and a half rushes and Drake may over 36 and a half rushing yards. Right because I bet it early in the betting cycle. So will you bet it back? Absolutely. Always bet it back to Steve. Basically always play back if you play something like I and customers ask me this. They're like you played, you know, some dude over 37 yards and now it's at 50, you know. Do you still like it? Of course I don't like it. I like the other way now. I mean it's very, very rare that and but I'm in the minority here. Every other person in the media, they're like a politician. Can't contradict yourself. Oh, be accused of giving out both sides of an issue or a game and the truth is and we've spoken about this. You always play back. Like when I give out something minus two and a half it, do I like it minus three and a half? Of course I don't like it minus three and I like the plus three and a half

5:00almost always because the market I always used to talk about Kenny White, very respected long time Vegas bookmaker, his daughter. Alex, it does great and she's in the same field, but I always like to say like when I'm blind those six points, I say I got Kenny White plus six. You know, it's like did he really make that big of a mistake with this send out numbers on games? All right, let's get it. Let's dive in without further ado into some more of your bets here. Let's walk through these started with total rushing yards in the Super Bowl under 225. So total rushing yards. Period. The entire the entire group, the entire pool of rushing yards by both teams under 225 yards. Yeah, now full disclosure. These four plays I'm giving out have nothing to do with the eight of clubs, Matt, the big of clubs. Matt did won't apply until Sunday morning. I had a piphony. I was I was driving in, driving down the highway and I was like New England, really good rush defense. They got their their dudes back, their health there. They're really

6:00stuff in the run. Seattle really good against the run. How in the heck are we going to get 225? You know, everyone likes Stevenson under. Everyone likes Walker under. Okay, I guess we could have a jet sweep for 80 yards for Seattle. That could beat me. Um, and I guess maybe Drake may could run for 80 yards, but they don't cash my Drake may rush yards. But like, I like so many of these dudes under people I handers and it's not going to get hardly any carries. And so 225 is a mountain of yards. So we're going to go under. You know what else likes that problem? The one of the valleys that my building likes this. They're like, that seems like a lot of rushing yards. They said the same thing you did in a less actuarial thought provoking process. All right, Patriots second half team total over nine and a half. So I'm guessing your thinking Patriots might be trailing that kind of thing. Yeah, so this is like basic strategy betting. This is available drafting. So every super bowl starts slow. So we like to bet second half over as we like to bet first half unders. Also game

7:00script. Um, in the first half, knowing when it's supposed to score nine and a half. See I also score 13 for their team totals. Um, and the team that's favorite oftentimes does get the lead. But now all I need is knowing when to get 10 points in the second half. Uh, there's got to be value there. And if you just look at the second half totals, uh, warning math, um, is like 23.2. And Seattle's lay in like two and a half. So Seattle is supposed to score just under like 13 points in the second half. Knowing when it's supposed to score 10.3 doesn't sound like a lot. I can get over nine and a half when they're supposed to score 10.3. And I like the over 10.3. Like that. Like I lean over anyways. I don't know what these guys are doing putting a nine and a half. That's just a mistake. So we go over nine and a half. If you could give us more advanced warning on the math, we'd appreciate that was a little every show, every show. That's me. Um, former FSA actuary. I use a math was FSA Stanford fellow society of actuaries. Uh, your resignation. Are you a fellow as well? Yeah. It did. You have to take all these. By the way, if anyone's like great at math. Yeah. And they, um, and they're thinking

8:01about what they should do for a living. Being an actuary is fantastic. But if you're just very good at math or good at math, don't do it. I said at the top of the show. I said it with the actuarial brain of Stephens. Like I said, if you have a math SAT score or 750 plus, it's an excellent profession to, um, I got it. I had exactly 750. I, the verbal was terrible though. 580 for me couldn't formulate a sentence. Yeah. I went like, I went like 75540 on the dummy. My sister is like, you know, double 700s. No problem. Oh, all right. Uh, long as touchdowns, Seattle minus 140. So I made lots of bets on Seattle because I don't want to lay the Seattle money line minus 220 or whatever I'm going to get minus 210 to post maybe on profit X and some betting exchanges, because I do think it will come down a little bit, but much rather bet Seattle on the money line like minus 140. So how can I get at that? Well, I've been all week long. I've been making bets like Seattle first team to get a 25 yard gain. Seattle to have more first downs. Seattle to have more touchdowns. And I really like this because the longest touchdown

9:02I really think Seattle has the best playmakers that I, you know, JSN always gets a 30 yard completion. Um, and on special teams, they're so good and special teams. You could just steal it with a kickoff return. So, um, Cocks are supposed to get, you know, almost one touchdown more than the Patriots anyway. So even if you just price both teams as being equally dynamic, this bet would be fine, but now add in the fact Seattle's more likely to have longer touchdowns or more longer gain Seattle longest touchdown. I like this last one because there's also a betting lesson involved in this. Patriots total punts over three and a half, uh, laying a bit of juice at minus 150. So this is a classic example of aggregation and upgrade through aggregation. So can I, can I do it before you even do it? Love it. Go ahead. So I'm guessing you're the great aggregator Steve, as it is looking around the sports betting landscape, and he sees a lot of people taking, or at least at least one person he respects, maybe two, taking over total punts in the game, but Stevie enhances

10:04the aggregation. He says, oh, that's interesting, but I can do better. Why not target it more specifically Patriots total punts over three and a half? Right, because the Patriots should punt a little more than Seattle. There's a reason they're a four and a half point underdog. Now someone might push back and say, well, Seattle's conservative, you know, they'll punts. That's right. You know, on a fourth and two. But I think New England will be conservative with May as well. And bottom line is that if the total number of punts is 7.5 and divide by two, if both teams were equally likely to punt that 3.75. And so now I get the team clearly favored to punt more, and I get them at a lower number at three and a half. I only have to lay minus one 50. This is insane. I mean, bold prediction. We win this. We will win this at half by half time. Wow. All right. New England will punt three or four times in the first half. You know, you know, you don't get extra money for that. If it happens, we will have time. Well, not initially. But then I can do social media. I can do the clips. I can put it up.

11:04And of course, if I get something radically wrong, like Purdue money line, I'll just never bring that up to anyone. You stood pretty good in front of that. You were pretty, you manned up. You know, it's been four years. I put up dozens and dozens of big money line play since then. They've all won. Did you make it up for it already? No. Uh, no. How many years away are we from making up for it? Oh, we're, we're, we're, it depends if you, if time value of money is, is factored in with the interest. But we're about two thirds of the way back. Yes. I mean, a 16 seed, beating a one. That'll never happen, Steve. Steve Fesick, everybody. Fesick Fridays coming back on the other side. It's a numbers game of these and these sports betting ever. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Minds set alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Be some programs you access to the same real time insights

12:04the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro. We'll see you in the next one.

13:18We have two winners on the biggest betting day of the year. It's all day coverage only on visa. We get tweets being a book. We're also getting a text by the way. Jo Peta has texted in talking about the passing of sunny jerkets and he said R.I.P. to redskins color commentator sunny jerkets and it really was a great, three-man radio booth. And as you know, I hated living in Virginia through their dominance 1983 to 1993. It really was a spectacular booth. Frank Sam and Sunny. or Zog, Sam Huff, Sonny Jurgenson. Trading bases, Joe Pita, excellent sports betting book. Excellent sports betting book. I just, I love the tweet, I love the text because it's reds, he specifically said skin's color commentator. We're talking about a Hall of Fame quarterback here, right? But for a whole era, a whole generation, he's known as a color commentator. David Newell on Twitter, question for you and Fez. Any good defensive player props? I feel like this is an underutilized market so edges should be available. What's a you? Oh gosh, I'm dropping the ball here because I just talked with Taylor Becht, he's like the,

14:19the aunt, they, one of the lead analysts for the Dr. Chao group, SIC picks. And they put out a few picks, which I might aggregate based upon injuries and the like, and I don't have it in front of me. So I refer you to the SIC picks folks. Have you spoken to your buddy, Dr. Chao, since Ryan Leef got up in his face? I have spoken to him about those issues before, and I want to, you know, let me, let me, so those who didn't follow it, Ryan Leef has issues with Dr. Chao. He's been a troubled young man. He got hooked on painkillers. And he's alleged that, you know, Dr. Chao was a part of that for prescribing that to him. But I can say, Dr. Chao has always been super professional in the media when he's interacting, you know, on this issue. And I can say privately, I've spoken with Dr. Chao about that. And he is, the doctor is such a nice man. And he genuinely cares about like everybody. And he has told me, I really hope Ryan Leef, you know,

15:19finds his way. And I think he had, Ryan has had a checkered past. And it appeared he was heading trending very much upwards. So I think let's just all keep our fingers crossed that Ryan Leef can keep that momentum that he had, positively moving forward. I thought Dr. Chao handled it very well, by the way. I did. John Fitzgibbon's on Twitter. As we get ready for this meh Super Bowl, as he calls it, I just want to make sure I'm paying attention. So you gave out Estamos de Guros as the first bad bunny song, trying to find that in my book. Am I doing this right? Yes. I'm the last one to know who bad bunny is. And now five minutes from Steve Fezick on bad bunny, everybody. No, Jim Campbell. Where was the card you took from the mentalist put? Family show here, Gil, uh-huh. Under, I said, not in, that was Steve. A's Dick Cardano. Did Rufus make his flight from the Megapod? At a pick of them, I would have definitely taken the know. Hashtag asked the right questions. Uh, oh, about his model. They have to ask the right. If you ask the right questions of your model, that's like good sports better, ask the right questions. Rufus did make his flight.

16:20He had, he left the, uh, the Megapod from the wind studio one hour, 60 minutes before his flight was set to take off. He made it with 15 minutes to spare. He got all arrogant about it. He went to go get, uh, food. And then he texts me back and he goes, uh-oh, the computers are down. No one has a seat. This was a frontier, frontier airlines plane. So I don't know what happened. I guess he got there. Primetime Leon Sanders. Yo, hey man, have you been living under a rock, Gilly? Pablo Tori had the ski jumping package in Hansi scandal on his podcast last week. I've done all I can do up and under your butt, Fesick. Let's go, Johnny, Johnny Keifer. Uh, I did not know. Pablo Tori is on fire, by the way. Dude, it's every topic. He's fantastic. We gotta get him back on here. Jordan Paygle, question for Steve. When he's betting back on the other side of a bet, how much is he betting relative to the initial bet? Great question. It's counterintuitive, um, and Abrams in his book, um, but how much did you lose? That's the title he tells you. Dead Abrams, dead Abrams. Dead Abrams is right, uh, at great book. But this is counterintuitive. I'm gonna use an example.

17:20Oftentimes, the whole way, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll get flat. And let me get, let me give, like, this is really counterintuitive. What's so you could bet heads, tails, and just you could bet heads at four to one. Okay, ridiculous number, all right? So you bet 10,000 to win 40,000 on heads. So you have a 50,000 swing. And then someone offers you tails plus 101. And even though the heads bet is so much better than the tails bet, right? You think, oh, well, I should partially hedge that book, but it's a plus EV bet on the tails. Also, even though it's a tiny plus EV. So you have a 50,000 swing on heads. You actually should bet 25,000 on tails plus 101, approximately. Um, and so you're actually, your bet size should be, like, even larger than on tails, even though your edges microscopic, because the bet, like, completely eliminates all the risk. And you're basically just monetizing your heads position by doing so. OK. The numbers, guys, question for physics. Actuarial science are job prospects strong for the future. Is AI going to have a negative effect on job outlook?

18:21My son is strong in math, and he's trying to figure out what to do in college. Yeah, great question. Absolutely not because no one can pass these exams are so rigorous. So as long as you're really good at math and you're a really good test taker, there's always going to be, there's always going to be a need for actuaries. And you're always going to thrive. Because, like, literally, only half the people pass the test, and you have to take 10 of them. So I'm sure they, they've changed it. You'd start doing the math. Now you can retake tests, but it's, it, it, it, it makes medical school a, a cake walk really getting through. Oh, yeah, I would say, I would say 97% of actuarial students can't get through all the exams or don't get to actuarial students up 24 hours at a time on a shift, like medical students. Mr. Fesik, those who have 680, verb math SAT scores are studying for the exams. Those who have 780 math SAT scores aren't. And finally, Matt warrior 13 driving, parking and watching the show two things.

19:22One, Hornets, Mafia, Live and Well here. Did you know we already won the NBA championship? Laughing emojis. And two, rumor is a choir will assist in the Super Bowl Anthem. We'll go over by 15 seconds. Well, that was my whole breakdown was, was based on that choir. I don't know about 15 seconds. By the way, here's Kelly's Hornets winnow meter. The race to 30. Wow. So are you familiar with GRP wins in his position on these Hornets? Oh, no, I'm not. Oh, so GRP is a really nice guy. He's from Chicago. He's smarter than the average bear. He went to Betbash, he had, he held a session, and he has coined himself as like a professional better. He's not a professional better. He's just, he's better than the average better and good guy, right? And for whatever reason, he decided to shove all in on the Charlotte Hornets. So he has the Hornets to win the division, to make the playoffs, to make the play in games. Back when the Hornets were like 10 games below 500 and scuffling because their Pythagorean win loss was so much better. They always have been pretty good.

20:23And they have just been styling out there. And so on social media, George is like post and he famously post pictures of him, having prime rib dinners and, and, and, and, and bagels and all kinds of, and he eats great and he's like wearing Charlotte uniforms. He's totally good. Kelly Bidlin on this here program and numbers game has, has them on the all season win total over. So I don't know, I don't know, you know, I just checked, I did not. I checked the NBA because your show went to three hours. So I missed some of this segments. Steve is very anti three hours. No, I'm very, no bill. I'm very positive about it. We want to go four hours, even, even more, but, but I believe I want to, I always go to team rankings.com and they projected Charlotte to win. What's this? Only to win 38 and a half. It's like they win every day. What are they talking about? 38 and a, they're going to win 42 games. All right, speaking of what's this, the famous Physic line. Needle and haystack bets as you call them. When people are betting these props and they do these,

21:24what you call needle and haystack bets that always get hyped up for two weeks, you hate this. I, I, I, I absolutely do. And the, if you listen to all these shows and, and you get all these guides, the one thing I would implore you to do is take all these 50 to one and 30 to one and 20 to one recommended bets that you're going to get from all of these experts. We're talking like exact score of the game, exact number of points, those kinds of things. Exactly. And just control it all to leave. Just get rid of it all. So like, like, I'll use an example because he said something mean about me. Bell Whale capper, like knowing what's going to get shut out at 50 to one, you know, directionally, I think Drew has a great point that, like, knowing we could really beast, they could really struggle to score in this game. Yeah. Drew, let me know. I'll give you a 55 to one. Just let me know. I'll be more than happy to book your action. Because even though I believe you's directionally right, that it could be a disaster, it can be a total disaster and you can still score three, six, seven, 10. I believe he is directionally right. I also took a little piece of it yesterday as well.

22:26But I totally understand your point that the, they almost always these bets have huge house edges is what you're saying. And what inevitably what happens is you're like, I almost won. You know, you could certainly see that. You know, it's like, oh, it's Sam Donald and throw that interception in the third quarter. You know, and New England loses 33 to seven. I almost won or put it another way. Let's say you, Steve Fezick, with your brain, bet it and you actually won it. There would be a little part of you that would be upset with yourself because you didn't get the proper bang for your bet. That's right. But don't get me wrong. If somebody gave me 80 to one, I would bet it. Okay. Yeah. All right. More with Fezick on the other side. He's got a lot more to get to. I know this because he gave me a list coming up on the other side. It's a numbers game. It's the sports betting network on a Fezick Friday on a football Friday. A numbers game with Gill Alexander. The Kenzie Gore goes from a really poor framing catching team in the Washington Nationals

23:29to a much better one in the ring. So much so that it caused me to also bet the Kenzie Gore at 40 to one to win the American Lakes. As the Rangers number three start, I think it gets a massive bump in ways that when you watch baseball and day-to-day level, your eyes don't necessarily process. Download a numbers game podcast and other Vs and shows wherever you listen to podcasts. A numbers game on Fezick, the sports betting network. Football meets flavor with Vs in an Omaha Stakes, the official sponsor of tailgaining. And right now when you spend $129, you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings plus 50% offside wide at OmahaStakes.com slash BSion. The weight spent $129 get two pounds of wings and say 50% side wide on stakes and more at OmahaStakes.com slash BSion that's OmahaStakes.com slash Vs in minimum purchase required seaside for detail. We get tweets being in the book, I always appreciate it from everybody, best listeners in the game.

24:30This is from, let's see, Aya Oya S69, do you think 17 to one for Sheffler to win the waste management? It's a little short, yeah, it's a little short, you should be getting way more, way more bang for your buck at this point. Hedeki Matsuyama is at nine under halfway through his second round. Sheffler who is yet to tee off, currently two over, who would be if he only shot even part of the day, he would be, he would not make the cut. Yes, 17 to one, not nearly long enough, not nearly long enough at this point. I know his name is Scottie Sheffler, but it's still not long enough. Colin Murphy from the amazing but true department, Will Hill actually hosted a decent show with Ryan Leif, not too long ago, odds on that had to be 10,000 to one. Sam Ginsberg from from a Pittsburgh PA, next time I don't feel well, I'm considering calling it actuary, probably won't help me feel better, but we'll give me odds on how long I'll live so my kids can get more life insurance on me. I'm sure Fezik has heard this before on the scale of cool actuary, so the only ones

25:30accountants are allowed to make fun of. Yes, so the actuary is the accountant without the personality. So, and there's that, that is a problem, Michael, you're thinking about your son or daughter, but it's probably going to be son. If they become an actuary and they're working with all these left brain geeky zoids, it probably will compromise their social life for the rest of their life. So that is an issue. James Fessler, can't wait for the Norwegian ski jumping contingent to hear about this eight of clubs insertion work around Fezik just discovered, increased the tailwind, guaranteed. Yes, the eight of clubs insertion work around. That's great. Dr. Van Nostrad, every bowl I take two long shots as MVP, if I can see a way home, thoughts on Ramandre Stevenson or Rashid Shaheed. Stevenson can break a long run for a score and variable rides the hot hand and Shaheed also can make a huge play and he's on special teams, two touchdowns by either question work. What? Stevenson's a fat tub of goo. How is he going to break a lot of fat tub of goo? He's not, he's not. He's not Travion. Yeah. I mean, let's put it this way, ain't no one betting him on like these, these, these next

26:33gen stats. Stevenson to be running 20 miles an hour of the fastest player on the field. Listen, I want, I want you, I want Ramandre Stevenson to walk in here for you to call him a fat tub of goo. That's what I want to have in here. We got a lot to get to here, Steve. Okay. Best way to, best way when using a media guy that has a whole bunch of suggested bets that people give is often to find derivatives of their bet that are superior. We sort of touched on that. But let's give an example of one here that I know you're, you're fixated on everyone looking to bet these teams to punt before they score. Right. Oh, the narratives out. It's hard to score in the first quarter. There's famously all the Tom Brady Super Bowl so many zero, zero. So let's bet each team to punt before they score. It certainly makes sense. It's pick them. I like betting, will both teams score in the first quarter? No, it's the same concept, all right. But think about like how, what has to go wrong for you to lose? Yes. Especially like, especially the team that gets to the ball second. If they punt before they score, they're very unlikely to put up a score at all.

27:38And I, the reason I really like this bet also is that people also are saying first quarter under seven and a half. That's a very popular play that everyone's putting out there. Well, to use Todd Wischner's example, let's talk about different scores that could occur. Well, zero, seven, we win, but we also win if it's zero to ten, like the Denver Washington Super Bowl. And if it's 13 to nothing, we win if it's 17 to nothing, we win if it's three to nothing. There's so many scores where one of the teams has a zero. I get it. It could be three three and I look like an idiot, but touchdowns are still much more common than field goals. So no one, both teams to score back to that aggregation. I want to talk about Mr. Stevenson. I do think like there's some people saying, oh, 48 and a half, it's so low, I'm going to play Stevenson over. I really think if you're going to bet, if you're pro Stevenson, that poor fat tub of goose, not going to break a large run. He's a mutter. That's why he's good in the snow. And he got 25 carries. But I do think first quarter Stevenson usage and first half, I would much rather have

28:38Stevenson over 23 and a half in the first half than over 48 and a half of the game because usage is probably going to go down, down, down, whereas in all the other New England games, when they had the lead and the weather was bad, it went up, up, up. Let me rehash something from your appearance here last week, because I think it's worth repeating for those who missed it. Your whole thing about the time gap between the coin toss and the actual kickoff in a super bowl is different than it is in a regular season game. So what's the, the phesic hack on that? Yeah. So three years ago, I was able to bet this against MGM where they had a prop and they kept their props up after the coin toss. I knew who got the ball and it was like, you know, well, Kansas City received the open and kickoff. Well, Kansas City was getting the kickoff, right? Boom. 900 went right through. I'm like, oh, they're going to kick it once it's straight forward. That's 100%. Yeah. So I know, like, they're going to kick my bum out of there with the eight of clubs in it or out of it, but they didn't because there's just like so many other, and it makes sense

29:42from their perspective, gosh, they hate to take the little, their finger and turn off all the props there because they're earning, earning so much money that unless they've segmented them correctly and they have them all in a separate category to just take that slew of props out. Maybe you don't get team to receive open and kickoff, but team to get the first first down, team to punt first, team to score first, team to get first touchdown. The other guys in the third quarter, who catches the first pass, right? Who gets the first sack, you know, like, there's all kinds of correlated bets based upon who gets the ball. And you're going to have a window of opportunity to slam those in against several books. And we'll take you off like if you had conviction on New England, but then you know Seattle gets the ball first. It will catch you off those bets. If you like New England first, like, like, like, Kelly, a Seattle, and the math, I just have it. I really feel like on a low scoring first quarter like this, buying a half points worth 80 cents. So if I had to choose, I'd much rather play Seattle minus 150, then Seattle minus a half

30:42plus 110, which is only a 60 cent differential, so the minus warning more math. So the Seattle to minus 150 first quarter is better. But what's this? If it gets the ball, I don't care that I like Seattle first quarter irrelevant. Now if the numbers are the same, I like New England first quarter because it's obviously significantly worth a lot. What's interesting about this is just from a macro says this, when people usually tune into mainstream sports media or even sports betting media, usually, right, someone will come up, I think Seattle's going to win. I think they're going to crush. This is just not how your brain works, right? You're much more interested in exploiting these kinds of things. But if I were to ask you, hey, Steve Fezick, who do you think do you have any opinions on this game? My gut says under. My gut says your gut says and my gut says, you know, low scoring to start the game. But, you know, I'll change my opinion on it. Let me give an example. I call it basketball game. St. John's, I think, is a good bet plus two and a half against Connecticut tonight. Let's say the first score of the game is four nothing, all right, and I could bet Connecticut

31:46and Connecticut's ahead. And I could bet Connecticut minus two and a half. I do. Of course, I'll lay two and have with Connecticut. They got the first two baskets. That's got to be worth two plus points, you know? So, look at how quickly my opinion can change on the dime just based upon the first minute of action in the college basketball. Yeah. It's so well. It's also gets into the whole, you know, we say it sometimes on the group checks. It's like, why does anybody bet pre-flop ever on anything with so much, especially when there's so much uncertainty about like an injury and you're not sure if a player is held, a key quarterback is healthy, why not just watch the first series and then make a determination? Yes. Can we just repeat the eight of clubs betting method again? So basically, you're just calling for fading all the big line moves, right? Exactly. And oftentimes, this is anti-media guy, all right? So this is where, like, like, what will happen is oftentimes, you'll see, like, you'll listen to a show, right? You'll listen to a six hour show and you'll get the best bet from professional gamblers, smartest guys in the world, the roofest pea bodies of the world. And if roofest gives out somebody over 40 yards and it's closing 46 and they're about

32:50to kick off, well, roofest really likes over and I'm like, no, roofest likes over 40, all right? Now it's 46. And I'm going to always play back and I'm going to play my under four, this is the last hour before kickoff. And you're ideally the last minute before kickoff, but the problems you can't bet them all at once. So usually, it's like the last 15 minutes, that's why, like, and this is on your app, you're not at a window doing this. Exactly. So to use one prop and back when I, before there were apps, we would always bet no overtime, all right? And so the overtime now, the value is largely gone. The chance of the game going over time is only like 6%. We would get like minus 600 on the no on the no overtime, all right? And so the lines would be like 45 minutes late and whatever money we had left, we'd like, all right, we're just going to, we're just going to shove it in with no overtime. We're going to get to the window at Harris or someplace. No overtime please, risk 26,000, whatever that is. And they would always take it. All right. So you are going to be, thank you, thank you in advance, by the way, you're going to be part of our Sunday show on a numbers game. Kelly and I will be here in New N Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific, part of our whole big game,

33:53Shabang all day long here at the network. What a great show. You cannot miss it. Is wishing it ever going to be on? You know what someone said there? Well, how could it be the greatest hit? So wish never is not on. Huh. Well, Todd, you can just tune in and watch us. We'll see, we'll see if Todd wants to go on. The, uh, we're kind of booked though, we don't have two hours. So wait, so last question then. What does for those wondering, okay, with football season comes to an end, what do you then end up doing? Do you, do you take a vacation at any point, or are you just betting through starting Monday on college hoops? I, I go right to college hoops and then after we get to like the elite eight or final four, final four, I'm pretty much that's when they take time off with I wait till end of March. And then you come back to baseball at some point also. Yeah, reluctantly. Steve Fesik everybody, Fesik sports. I only say that because my obligation to do so on Twitter, I'm just telling you right now, tread lightly. I'm trying. Be better. Be a better person on Twitter for God's sakes. Steve Fesik everybody. Thank you, Steve. Thank you.

35:09Live from Circle Resort, Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the his wealth, Kelly, this is, it's come to this. This is it. Making a mistake where you are. When Fesik gets so tall, why is it getting grew? Yeah, I had just a microphone. He got tall. Oh, I see. I'm just, I'm just a fan of him letting the hair go, you know, me till without the, without the coloring. You look great without the color. You look good, Steve. Oh, color. Hey, boys and girls. Boy, specifically men, don't ever color your hair, don't ever do it. So this is it, Kelly. Super 60. We've done two weeks as has everybody here, right? Two weeks leading up to a sewer role, as is the case for most every sewer role. There have been exceptions when there were strike seasons, for instance, it was reduced to one. I think COVID might have been an exception, although don't hold me to that. But two weeks is the standard. And so here we are. We've kind of said it all. Everything we've had to is there anything that you'd like to add that you haven't said already? Well, as always, thanks to everybody who joined the show to give out their input.

36:12This is, I still got a list, man. I got a list. Well, I'm pulling the crack again. I have this is, I've got, that's, you got to stick around for Sunday to get a ball. I was very impressed with Bill Krakkenberger's teasing the whole, the whole crew was me, the whole crew. Not only that, but he did it from beginning of appearance to end of appearance yesterday because he had props to give out the end and then more props from crack on Sunday during our show. Noon Eastern on Sunday. Yeah. Okay. Special thanks to both those guys. Great. Krakken Fez. Krakken Fez will be on there. Who else is on with us on Sunday? We got Will Hill coming on. Chris Felica. Will Hill. Chris Felica. People are clamoring for wish now, man. We'll be hearing from the circuit book as well. Oh, yes. Chris Bennett from the circuit book. Yeah, we'll be setting up a camera. I think in the risk management room over there at Golden Gate is where they do that. Oh, he's going to be the Golden Gate. Yeah. Yeah. We're going to talk to him. Just kind of where that money's coming in morning of. What's getting bet all that fun stuff. Sweet. And again, an all day coverage. We're just one part of the whole one cog in the whole Veecin wheel on on Sunday wall

37:15to wall coverage before the game during the game with Matt and Mike Sommage back around in Mike Sommage. And after the game with Dustin Dustin sweetle's in. So full day coverage here at the network. Here are again a recap of the bets. These are from this week. So there will be some non football ones as well, beginning with the baseball season win totals. Me and you were actually all over the place now that I'm realizing that yeah this week. Yeah, like I have a limp big stuff in there. Oh, yeah. We got a bunch. I'm on the Guardians under 80 and a half wins. That was my first season win total of the baseball season and the Rangers over 83 and a half wins. All about it. Both those teams again gave the reasoning earlier in the week. I'll retweet the Guardians clip on Twitter. McKenzie Gore, part of the Rangers handicap McKenzie Gore AL Si young 40 to one. Also Super Bowl 60 now, Seahawks minus four minus one 28. I made this bet again, not this past Monday, the previous Monday right right after actually

38:16Sunday night bet. Right right when the championship games were done. I thought this line was going to soar right to see Hawks minus six. And who knew who knew what I was thinking at that time as to how high it would go. So I actually bought it down to the minus four at minus one 28. And then as the weeks went on, I added Seahawks minus seven and a half, Seahawks minus ten and a half at increasing plus money. And of course, Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP plus one 25. Also have Charlie Puth over on the national anthem at 122 seconds. Is he going to add like the Paul Walker song at the end or something like that's how you know. That's all I know. It's all I know. And like, it's a great song. I want to hear it just like, you know, rowed out the national anthem and go right into that. And then I also did, I did add a little from Drew's Seahawks win with, win by shut out 50 to one on the Seahawks to do it. I mean, one direction. It's a, it's a directional Sunday for me. They let you in the band.

39:18What's that? One direction. Yeah. Well, he got one. I got music jokes. He got one in the end. By the way, are you going to play the Jersey number? I'm going to play that. I have not played the Jersey number one again. The under 11 and a half and minus 140 again, Jersey numbers of first touchdown score. Again, that gives you access. I shouldn't say access, but that gives you in your group of under 11 and a half Jersey number Jackson Smith and Jigba Cooper Cup, Kenneth Walker, Keishan Booty, Demario Douglas, DeFont Diggs, Drake May, all of them in there under 11 and a half Jersey numbers. I have not made the bet. I might and I just want to get again as a public service announcement once again, three unanswered scores. This is the one that kills betters the most. Yes, minus 155 is a good bet. Don't think it's not. It's not the other way around. It happens all the time. You sir. I'm going to need the cruise help on this one real quick. Are we, do you think, because you and I don't play with first touchdowns very often, first touchdown score or anything like that? So are we, are we hip and cool for playing if we actually play that prop of the first

40:23touchdown score with the Jersey or we just old men boomers because we're going to lay minus one 40 on the first touchdown score instead of taking like a 12 to 1 boomers immediately as they didn't even let me finish cool. Got it. Got it. So we're not even, we're not even having fun. If we play that kill. I didn't have to answer. Yeah. I wanted to hear from the crew. I wanted to hear from the younger people. Uh, okay. For me, that should be the show. You asked me questions. I say nothing. And they just give the answers in our years. That'd be great. So, I'm just like, eight minutes late, five and a half. This has come down a little bit. I played a bad number overnight. At seven and a half. My, he's coming into town tonight. Three and four for Boston. Two games off for Miami. I guess that's why they're getting some love. I don't know. I've had two games. The game last night moved against me. I was confused as hell. I saw a call. Sack was on the same bet that I was so I felt better. Didn't bet more of it. Thank God, which one under in that San Antonio Spurs game last night? Was not close. That one was done by the end of the first quarter. Yeah. Yeah. So this is another one. And usually I don't have this problem with sides as much guilt. It's actually gone the other way for me. So my antennas are up. But yeah, Celtics

41:26five and a half tonight, Jordan, Ott coach of the year. I didn't add this the other day. No, yesterday after we talked to Zach about it. I'm with him. I do think it's probably a two coach race for coach of the year in the NBA. I do not understand why there is that much difference though between where odd is that and where bigger staff is. And then tailing, Mr. Dinsakir, USA, most gold medals plus 475. That was the price point. Drew stopped at was able to find that in town at Caesars. There was not a good enough good that could have number anywhere else here in Vegas, at least USA over 12 to have gold medals. Then minus 108, tailing him there as well. It's far super bowl for me so far. Seahawks laying five and a half sold that out to 102. Seahawks laying nine and a half plus 190. Seahawks first corner, laying a half at plus 110, Drake Bay over 33 and a half rushing yards minus 120. Also for a decent subscribers, if I have any tennis tonight over the weekend, but certainly the two weeks I'm on vacation next week. I plan on doing a lot of tennis as the hard court season comes to the United States of America, looking forward to all those

42:30tennis plays. Where do they start? Um, sketch of Delray Beach is the first is it? I don't know. Are you there during Miami and Delray Beach? Sure is. You own a Miami. Yeah, but I don't know if I'm going to the Delray open, but I'll be in there. You're going to go to Miami open though? When's it on Miami? Open's not so much. Oh, yeah, yeah. That's part of the sunshine. Double. Come on, Kelly. It's Indian Wells followed by the Miami open. My bad Paul car was in earlier. He's got a couple cross-sport bets by the Lona goals plus 115 versus the Seahawks total touchdowns. Barcelona hosts Mallorca on Saturday. So that's a two day bet. In other words, he's taking Barcelona goals at plus one 15 to eclipse the number of Seahawks touchdowns and then man city goals plus one 40 at Liverpool. That's Sunday morning versus Drake may passing touchdowns. So again, correlated with your conviction on the Super Bowl. If you're all about New Orleans, uh, New England, I wedged the sades in there for a second. You're all about New England. You're probably a fond of the

43:30first one. If you're all about Seattle, you're probably fond of the second one. Paul's fond of the under, right? So that's right. I don't know why I say fond of, but that just came out of my mouth. Chris Velika, the bear, Chris got her up. Got her up. Just remember, just remember batter up. Chris got her up to win the Masters at 60 to one to win the U.S. Open at 50 to one to win the open championship at 50 to one. Is he still in the lead? No, because Matsuyama has made a birdie on literally every hole since I brought him up earlier in the show. When was that an hour ago? He just spoke it into existence. He has birdied every hole since then, Gil. He is good at golf. Chris also had Velika that is had Yukon St. John's under 144 to half tonight. College hoops Saturday and soccer arsenal, halftime full time minus 160 versus Sunderland. And then Sunday, Bologna, money line at Parma, minus 170 on Bologna. And then he also had some horse racing. Santa need a thunder road stakes. He's on El Potente. The potential. No, that's powerful. Potential stupid. Santa

44:33need a Robert B. Lewis stakes. But a blue tarp. I want to say I would take a shot at that one. No idea. All right. And Santa need of the sweet life stakes. Hypergamy, which again, outpunning your coverage is what that means at 10 to one. Then Matt Brown, Seahawks, minus 4 and a half, minus 6 and a half, minus 7 and a half, minus 9 and a half, minus 10 and a half, minus 13 and a half. He's also got Sam Darnold MVP, plus 130. Drake may most rushing yards at 7 to 1 as it follows his game script. Stefan Diggs, over 8 and a half, fourth quarter, reception yards, minus 108. Travion Henderson, over 2 and a half receiving yards, minus 118. Kenneth Walker, under 73 and a half, rushing yards, minus 110. Matt Brown persists. Total players with receptions under 13 and a half, minus 115. Total players with rush attempts, under 7 and a half, plus 195. Game decided by exactly three points, plus 455. And game total sacks, over 5 and a half, and minus 110. And then, of course, defecate. Total rushing yards, and the Super Bowl, under 225. Patriots, second half, team total, over 9 and a half. Long as touchdown, Seahawks, minus 140. Patriots, total punts, over 3 and a half, minus 150. Did we do it? We did it. All right. We're back

45:39on Sunday. Part of the whole Shabang here at Vison. Prop points. John Hansen is next. Enjoy it from Vison. These sports betting network.