A Numbers Game | February 6, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story of the Alex now swandles 80 to believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I by Xander gone. Be sent hour number two of a numbers game at Vista. These sportsmen, you know, we're decent calm game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, series six on Channel 158 on the Friday before the Super Bowl Super Bowl 60 Kill Ilex and her Kelly Midland producer number nine so much more than a producer. Yes, sir. We get tweets by the way, Felica standing by, Fesik standing by, are we sure standing by as well? We get tweet speed in the book burner. Is that burner Archie said did Kelly just say Crotchle? Yes, I did. Crotchle reason region. He's like K Michael. Uh, let's say Will Hill. Will Hill. You know, Will Hill. He's tweeting it. He says, uh, waiting on megapod historian Tim Lawson to document how many times Toddie has professed his desire to have dinner with Michael Lewis. This is also an inside megapod joke where every time Rufus comes on now, he

1:00says, Oh, yeah, we do. I will always bring up the fact that Michael Lewis did this gambling audio series, right? This podcast series on gambling Rufus was the centerpiece and Todd is if he's never said it before because you know, I don't really want to have dinner with a lot of people, but Michael Lewis is the one guy I would have to dinner with. Chuck is the one. I think my Super Bowl invite got lost in the mail. Can you send another one? Oh, man, I'm just doing, I'm just by myself in my house. Man, I'm in the apartment watching the game. Nothing exciting for us to be just you and me. Chuck James Jackson. I have had success using AI to help me find props. I ask it what sportsbook has it and under what heading I think perplexity is the best. Well, yeah, but what state are you in? You're not doing it. You're not doing that with Nevada apps. Yeah, try that. Same thing. You're doing that with draft Kings and Fiend and try that Nevada James Jackson. Uh, oh, Tinsley Thomas Tinsley you're clarifying. He says it was a pro Kelly tweet earlier. He says the young versus old Kelly versus Fred Fes friendly rivalry that is naturally brewed upon us will

2:01be best if everyone is together would love to see Fesik live with Kelly for all the quips such as not liking Oh, the Seahawks first quarter. I said I said when you had the Seahawks first quarter that Fesik wouldn't like that. Now I get it. Charlie C. Um, always tell you he's reacting to a crack, uh, to a crack uh, tweet LFC ads, LFC records, best cross sport parlay. I've seen in Super Bowl points and USA gold medals over 59 and a half at draft Kings for even money. What does the fancy pants size mileage? Just think about that. Pad that groin area USA. He says, well, what's the number 59 and a half? The only issue with that bet is you got to wait two weeks. Well, and it's a bad number. Right. Total in the games 45 or 45 and a half and you get 12 and a half on the gold medals. That's right. It's horrific. David Bellett that Bella checks teams had extra material in the crotch area help lineman hold their ground, thus no hall of fame. Corbin morning fell is just

3:02want to thank you guys for a great football season, all the hard work you guys. Do day in and day out. Crazy to believe in two days will have to wait six months for more football. The great words of Will Hill wasn't it just week four? No, wills is I can't believe it's week four already. That's his thing every week. I can't believe it's week six. I mean, like it all was be all season though. Like it's October. How did you go October? November? Mile marker 420. Vaha's while Kelly was explaining the suits was hilarious from the uh-huzz from kill made me wonder if he was getting the indeed ad ready for Kelly's replacement. Funny stuff guys. Chris. I got one more ad. I'm still going through this article. Okay. It's the longest hell over in November 2020. Coconin. I'm going to go with that. I think he's a fit. A finished ski or cake? Sure. Told Finland's leading tabloid newspaper that athletes were stuffing dishcloths and sponges in their underwear. Hey, man. Dirty body measurements. If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Yeah. Hey, man. All right. Good on you, skiers. Norway. Finland. Scandinavia. Rife with scandal. Ladies and gentlemen,

4:02Chris Felica joins us now. Curtis, the progressive guest line. You may know him as the bear. El also. You can follow him on Twitter at Chris Felica, FAL, L, ICA. He's at Fox Sports. He's the host of the Bear Betts podcast Empire. And he joins us now this morning on a football Friday. How you doing, Chris? I'm doing okay. I'm anxiously awaiting. The will hill week 15 way. What's the NFL schedule gets released? And whenever that is? Yeah. If you look to week 15, like you should bet. Will. I don't know if he's getting with Fezza on those or not, but no, no one has more week 15 or future week wages in the NFL. And then will does on to get the release day. Fezza, Fezza comes in here. Like early August. It'd be rating people. Be ready. How can you not bet the Seahawks in week 14 versus? So it's a it's very relatable stuff. Absolutely. All right. Now, Felica, here's the thing. Chris Felica is going to do his best to talk about everything but Super Bowl 60. But we're going to we're going to hold him to the fire on this at some point. But let's start with some of these other sports because you got a lot of bets.

5:02I'm fascinated by the golf. Yeah. Trio of bets you've made here. All centered around one player. What are we talking about? Yeah. Yeah. Chris got her up. It's got to win a major. Well, it's got to win in that right. And that's a great. So, the last two. Hey, we did some play in. Probably sooner than later. I know it is not historically productive or accurate. Profitable to bet on someone to win. The master is in their first go around. But the way he drives a golf ball. He can overpower that golf course. And put himself in position. To put up a pretty low number there. And it's not unreasonable. The thing you can get to 15, 16, 17 under. at Augusta, maybe even in his first go round. I bet him 50, 60 to one to win the Masters, to win the U.S. Open, to win the Open Championship. I know the U.S. Open might be a little bit of a, a bridge too far or a tall task. It's Shinnecock, but it's a guy who was third in the Open Championship last year over in, obviously that was over at Ireland. That's the court wish last year.

6:02So he can play well over there. Burk Dill is an exactly one of the more difficult road of course is out there. I love God of Rift's game, and I'm just gonna throw a little bit of a, a little bit of pizza lunch money there on him to win a major slam sooner than later Kelly. I don't know if you think about God of Rift's game. Now that translates. Now I love it, Chris. I know you and I are texting a little bit about yesterday. Honestly, I think the first look for me too with with his style is the Masters. You're right. I know we don't like to say that with the first time winner, but that was, that was the first one I thought of when we were kind of texting about it yesterday. It's just, it is interesting to me. I hope he gets it done this week, but man, just some of that time off in golf guilt. He was hot for a stretch during the summer. It feels like people forget how we were pushing him on, people were pushing him for the rider cup, and then it's like, okay, you take a few months off and he goes out and wins the sodium open. I couldn't believe how long his odds were this week. So I didn't got her, it was awesome. I think for Chris, Chris, the biggest thing we're seeing this week too, he, at first round, he didn't really gain that much off the tee. It's all on approach, and if those irons get locked in,

7:02like some of these other top players watch out, he's gonna be one of the best out there. So you got Chris Gotter up to win the Masters in 61 to win the US Open at 50 to one, to win the Open Championship at 50 to one as well. Okay, let's throw in a college basketball play in the Big East, what do you have? It can, if you are aware of the college basketball, it's worth going on massive game tonight, at the Mecca, as they say, Madison Square Garden, Yukon, St. John's, great Big East rivalry. I like the under 144 and a half, I don't know if there are any 145s left out there still. Yukon plays such good defense, whether it's on the interior, the size they have, but even on the perimeter, Yukon will defend St. John's three-point ability that they will control the tempo of the game. I'd be surprised if this were a game where both teams get into the 70s. I don't think, pearly and their coaching staff will allow this game

8:04to get up and down and let St. John's get that crowd into the game at the guard, even though there will be a ton of Yukon fans there as well, but I like the under here today, Yukon, St. John's, they get probably going to be a close-ish-type game, so you're really going to shorten and maybe take away that thousand at the end of the game, but Yukon's perimeter defense is so good, under 144 and a half, 145, best time where you can find. I like it, I like the preamble too. If people remember the college basketball who's being played here on this Super Bowl weekend, all right, soccer, Paul Carr was on earlier, you have a couple soccer plays as well. Yeah, you look, one for Saturday, one for Sunday, they're both the Yadolay, play of some juice there, which I don't mind doing. Tomorrow, I play Arsenal, half-time full-time, again, Sunday lane minus 160. Essentially that means Arsenal has to lead at half-time and then Arsenal has to win the game. Sunday lane is a surprising team. They got promoted last year and they have been fantastic.

9:05They're going to stay up. It's mainly because they've been surviving and getting late goals at home to get wins, to get results, to get points. Now you're going on the road. I think they have scored two first half goals all year away from home. They don't score very much at all away from them. Arsenal should made this feels like a three-nil type Arsenal will win. So Arsenal, half-time, Arsenal full-time played that. And then Sunday, I went to Serie A and I laid 170 with Bologna to beat Parma. Bologna is in dire need of a win. They're a decent team. They're not a Champions League type team anymore like they were a couple of years ago, but they're still a solid side that has been kind of scuffing a little bit lately. Parma coming into Bologna offers them a really good chance to get a much-needed win to potentially get them back towards maybe Europa League standings in the table. So I laid 170 with Bologna to beat Parma. It occurs to me to ask this question, because I'm curious, maybe someone else out there is as well.

10:08How many different leagues do you bet in soccer? I will tend to play just the major England, Spain. Dazbundi League. Italy, Bundesliga occasionally. Yes, very rarely will I play league one in France, because I just think the gap between PSG and everybody else. I don't want to just have a decent year in Marseille. Is it very rarely will I look at league one? But England, England, Germany, Italy, Spain, that's pretty much it. He's like, ah, I just do the Bayley, so he names every country in Europe. It's like, oh my God, big one, yeah. It's like, are you a dessert person? Not really, although I like a blondie, and sometimes some Oreo, Oreo. I can't last twice a climb, I will already. A lemon bar, sometimes it's a spot. But I'm not really, I'm not really a dessert person. All right, Chris will save the rest for the other side.

11:11So coming up Chris Velika, yes, against his instinct, we'll talk Super Bowl 60 with Chris. And also, he does, are you wise? It just you've had it with two weeks, is that what the story is with you? I'm so done, why I'm so done with the Super Bowl. Let me just sit on the couch, eat my nachos, eat my cheese dip, eat my pretzel bites, or whatever I'm gonna have, and just watch the food. Nachos and cheese. You can make it through one more segment of it, but we'll also get your horse racing plays at Santa Anita. That he gets very excited about. Chris Velika, reluctantly, a reluctant guest, on the other side, on a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real, mindset alone, doesn't get bets home, pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now, so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors

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13:13We get tweets made in the book. Y'all have the best best listeners in the game. I've said it a hundred times set it a thousand. I'll say it again. Eddie vegan runner at Kando 262 says, I tried the naked diet and got kicked out of McDonald's. Yeah, you can't do that one publicly. I was like, sunny. Really? Does he think you're gonna lose weight? He goes, oh yeah. TripTap or sunny Jurgitson Sam Huff and Frank Herzog were the ultimate radio broadcast trio. Those of us who grew up in the skin's geographic footprint were blessed with an all-time radio team, R-I-P sunny. Yes, what TripTapper is referring to is the skins in the heyday of the Super Bowls and beyond. Frank Herzog was the play by play guy and then sunny Jurgitson Sam Huff to former skins were the color guys, if you will. And it was just fantastic radio. And it's one of the many things that Daniel Snyder ruined. Soon is like, you know, one of many, yes. One of many things. Cause of ultimately he fired Frank Herzog. Jurgitson my Frank Herzog encounter as well. Yeah, I will. He used to be in the channel nine again, the CBS affiliate sports department there

14:13as an intern back in the day. And when George Foreman knocked out Michael Moore, the famous Jim Lampley call, it happened. It happened this aging George Foreman who came back to win the heavyweight title. I went, but I was going nuts. And Herzog was trying to hear what was going on the TV. He goes, he says to me, he goes, shut up. Dot, dot, dot, that he goes, sorry. That was my encounter with Frank Herzog. Kevin Norman, Tiffany Haddish, mispronouncing Mike, Mike Vrabel's name as variable at the NFL awards is hauntingly reminiscent of Kelly battling with women's tennis players names. Yes, it is. It was verbal. It was verbal. She kept saying, I thought it was more variable, but I could be wrong. I like that. I like that. I don't know about you. I had to follow you up for probably all of 11 minutes during the award ceremony, but I caught that. That was part of the 11 minutes. Like I said, like at some point, you botched enough three guys show up on stage. I thought she said my name. I also don't know like, like, do you watch,

15:13did you watch that whole thing with full volume? No, first of all, okay. First of all, I forgot it was on. Yeah, until Montessano kept texting us about it. And then I'm like, oh, I should probably see if one of these, I completely forgot about the award. I forgot. Yeah. Not that I forgot it was on. I knew it was coming up, but then I didn't realize how late it started. It was like six o'clock Pacific time. Like nine Eastern thing is, you could have tuned in hours. I didn't miss anything, right? Like you defensive player, come back player, like all the other stuff that they do. So I was like switching back and forth between basketball and that and like every time I'd watch it for like five minutes, I'm like, why am I watching this? Like a Twitter gives me everything I need to know. Mike Veribol, Chris Voleka. Chris Voleka joins us once again from Fox Sports, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. What was the, what was the cleave TA tweet about? Mike Veribol? He had, he had a great tweet and I'm just power phrasing because I don't have it off right now. Most of his tweets are great. So it's kind of a, they are on there. Truly. I don't know what his data set was, but also I'm just going to say ever for whatever his data set is. Like Mike Veribol is like the second best head coach ever in terms.

16:18I think it was wins above expectations in the role of an underdog. I think Bulk Hauer was the only underdog that a coach that was better as an underdog in terms of pulling upsets. So that has me real, again, we talked about it last week and leading up to the game. That just like this whole, like if you do like the simple handicap part of it, and it's like, okay, say I was better in like every position group that yeah, and everybody seems to be doing that. And it's four and a half and the number hasn't moved. And now you have all of that. And what Veribol does in this role, pissed off, oh, the schedule sucks. The terrible schedule and like we were in the group chat and then follow in this as long as we have like, we have been frable fans forever. And I think people are maybe a little bit late to the party now. Like his ability to do little things throughout the game. Like the personnel on defense with all of being allowed to substitute

17:20on a rush off the field, did it, did it take your time. Yeah, five on the playcock for stint of like hurrying, making right McCordbeck's make rush decisions and rush snaps, taking penalties to stop clocks around the two minute warning and be able to like a massage the clock and be able to get the ball back. They just little things like that. Yeah, I am sure that he, he's gonna be working on some other things and some other little, I don't wanna say loopholes, but some other channels and some avenues to do everything that he can to give his team an opportunity to want us. Chris, that's exactly what someone who thinks to see us should win this game and shouldn't win it like comfortably if everything plays to form. That has me, that has me. Yeah, you're right. That was when, that was when we all knew he was a great coach and the one that I specifically remember is when he was the coach of the Titans. If they had a lead north of the five minute mark, remember, they had to change this rule. But if you took delays, the clock rewound, right?

18:21You could keep taking delays. We always wondered like how many of these can they take before the ref finally catch on and stop the clock on this. But as long as you were doing it above the five minute mark, you could just keep taking delay of game penalties and they would have to keep going. So maybe he got that from Bella Check, I don't know, but the cleavetier tweet that you're referring to, variable in a spot this Sunday, he has thrived in for his entire career as an underdog. Second best head coach in modern history, minimum 50 total games with wins versus pre-game win expectations. By the way, he threw in the bottom 10 as well and Mike McDaniel apparently is on that list as well. It's not at the very bottom of it, I think, at the very bottom of it. Okay, so just to clarify, then you are on Seattle, but you're a little, you're a little spooked about it. Yeah, I could see myself baby having a little Patriots plus four and a half come, come, come Sunday. Just as kind of a happiness hedge being a bitter jets fan like I am. I played some props in the game. I kind of, I tell Jeff Schwartz on Drake May,

19:25Rush Yards under just he went into a really good diet tribe on how Seattle's defense really doesn't allow for quarterback run to be a big part of the game. I played both teams to score in the first quarter, no. I played last score, the game will be a touchdown assuming that if the game flow, that a lot of people expect that Seattle be up convincingly in this game, last score, the Patriots have the ball, they're not going to be kicking a field goal. I played that. The first field goal, the game over 37 and a half. I had like that and then I heard but cracking some of the people around that as well. So I kind of wanted to aggregate in a couple of others and in addition, a couple of other ones as well. The Cooper Cup under 16 and a half for his longest perception as well, I played that. So just some props here and there and talents from other people. All right, that was enough for us. That was those good stuff. Okay. Okay, let's go to horse racing. You're bread and butter. Santa Anita, what do you got?

20:25Yeah, a lot of rescheduling this week for still there's actually some state races in New York today on Friday because of the weather and all the brutally cold weather cancellations that they've had and throughout the country. But Santa Anita's got some stakes on Saturday that I looked at in the first state race Thunder Road, race five at Santa Anita. I like the number four is El Patente. I think this horse speed on the stretch out is going to have things all of his own way. The favorite in this race, Gasp me up was 13 to one last time out. Got a great setup in the race. And I don't think Gasp me up is going to be getting the same type of setup in this race and we'll be very, it won't be able to get there. They all patente. Why is this field two to one? The D. Wayne Lucas, or I should say the Bob Lucas in some sense, there is a D. Wayne Lucas race and then there's a Robert B. Lucas, which is the more traditional grade stakes race out there as one of the Derby Preps. The favorite desert gate, I think, is a little bit vulnerable here as well.

21:26I think there will be some other speed in the race. And I'm taking a little bit of a stab here with the number two horse Plutarch. Four to one, it's another Bafford horse in the race. So you got to kind of have the Bafford's going against each other. But I think there might be this horse's best outcome, the best surface here. With second, or a third, I should say, beaten three quarters of a length last time out on the Derby American Farrow, it said Anita, same track. Desert Gate was the horse had just finished and nudged Plutarch out for a second. Massive rider upgrade from the last time on Derby from Cameroa to Florence, Giroux. I think Plutarch would be kind of sitting in the pocket here and it gets first jump on Desert Gate and the other speed and four to one Bafford. We'll see if we get it. A lot of times when Bafford has multiple horses in the race, the longer price of the Bafford winds up winning. So it took a little bit of a stand there with a little bit of a mid price. And then in the sweet life, six and a half down the hill at San Anita

22:28is a great condition that I've always loved. We finally get back here on the downhill turf course at San Anita. And I'm going with a little price horse at number one horse, DePergamy. Ten to one for Doug O'Neill. I think this horse cutting back is really going to have a big say in the outcome of this race. I know sometimes being on the inside of this course can be a little bit of a hamper, a little bit of a hindrance. But I think with your ebbs, no hire mayo on the cut back this horse, you should have plenty of room to get out. And I know Kelly, you were talking about I didn't expect to use her something before. I know you're a big market of fun for soba fan. You've watched the Emerotic powder match right now going on. Another famous female tennis tattooed player right there. Oh, OK. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it. Ukraine, the Ukraine player. A numbers game on Fisand.

23:29These sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. Kill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. By a little breaking news, not really breaking, but kind of breaking. I mean, it's breaking. The question is, is it worthy of breaking news? That's the real question. The Browns screwed something up again. Tom Pellicero following up on, remember when the Browns hired Todd Munkin, we were on air. And immediately we said, Jim Schwartz left the building. Well, yeah, Jim Schwartz has now officially resigned as the Browns defensive coordinator. Sources tell the insiders. Thank you, Tom Pellicero. So Jim Schwartz has taken his toys and gone home officially now. A little surprise that took as long as it did. Yeah, he was that angry. What was going on between then and now? Well, him yelling for more money, I guess, like a lot more, I don't know, maybe slept on it. Yeah, a couple of times, a few times, but he's out. That was, uh, so just circle back. Cleveland's like main priority was to make sure that they kept Jim Schwartz this time around, but they didn't want to give them that coaching challenge. That is exactly right. The main priorities, whoever they hire as coach, you're going to have to have Jim Schwartz the defensive coordinator.

24:30Well, they never consulted Jim Schwartz on this position. Wild man, real quick before we get to mad. Uh, I don't want to let this go because I'll forget. The three horses that, uh, go that Felica just had in his picks, the third one, hypergamy. Do you know what that means? No idea. The social practice of marrying or partnering or having a sexual relationship with someone of a higher social economic or status level. That's the name of that horse hypergamy. Oh, I'm all about that. There you go. That's what I'm trying to do. That's all I have to do to get Kelly to bed attend to one is a good job. Yeah. There you go. That's what I'm looking for in life. El Potente, the powerful Plutarch and then hypergamy from Chris race four, two and one. Well, what's going through your head? Like you saw, you heard him say that and you were like, what was that word? I saw it on the screen. So I immediately thought, I wonder if that's like a polygamy thing or something like that. And it was enough. It was. Yeah. They're smart guy. Matt Brown probably knows that already though. Matt Brown is the host of ready set bed along with our buddy, Mike Sommitch. Uh, he joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter and Matt Brown, Emma, too.

25:31And of course, most famously in his entire life. The co-host of prime time action with Kelly and me. That was the greatest moment in an episode of our lives, all of our lives. Matt, how you doing, man? Doing well, doing well, guys. I was unable to listen to the first part of the show. Did you guys happen to touch on that very important Olympic story that I sent you this morning? I was just curious if you maybe you did get to that. I did. Matt, I'll be honest, you texted it when I was driving in. I kind of dismissed it as something that was hyperbole and overblown in just a silly Matt joke. And then I pulled up a very extensive Yahoo article and red bits of it on the air. Yes. What a story. Yeah. Okay. I'm just making sure because I mean, that is important stuff. I mean, if we're handicapped in this, right? Yeah. We got to know who's doing this. Dinsa didn't bring it up yesterday at all. Dinsa didn't know about how am I supposed to make my bets? Matt Brown, by the way, hosting in this chair, starting on Tuesday next week, all week long full ski jump coverage, looking for it. That's absolutely all ski jump all the time. That's the first hour of every show.

26:32Just ski jump all ski jumping. All right. Super Bowl 60, Matt. I don't know if you know this, but it's a little more than 48 hours away. I'm looking you have a bevy of bets here. The first batch of them you and I are completely sympathy go on. Let's just start with the the side and how you're working this one. Yeah, just a sea hawks all the way out to 13 and a half. I've listen, if we go by what I see happening in this game, if we're talking about the tails here, I think that a sea hawks blow out is well within the range of outcomes. If we look, this is going to be a Drake May, and this leads to another one of my bets here as far as the sacks and stuff. But like Drake May, as good as he has been, he doesn't feel pressure very well. He takes a ton of sacks. He's going to be under pressure by this front four that gets home, by the way, with just four. They're going to have a lot of guys in the second dairy. They're going to be looking at him while he's feeling that pressure. If he's not getting sacked, I think maybe we get a couple of mistakes. Maybe a couple of turnovers here. I think this could go the way of the sea hawks.

27:33I don't see the sea hawks offense getting stopped a ton. I do think they will get stopped in this game. I think it's going to be tough to run the ball, but I don't think they get stopped, you know, drive after drive after drive after drive. And so when I kind of put this, you know, all down, there's a world that exists where the Patriots win. Sam Donald feels a ton of pressure and like listen, they've been blitzing at an incredibly high rate. If they get home with that, Donald's numbers certainly do fall off a cliff whenever he is under pressure. But I just, I feel very, very confident that the sea hawks are better at nearly single every almost every single position out there. And you went four and a half, six and a half, seven and a half, minus nine and a half, minus 10 and a half, minus 13 and a half, all of those. Yeah, just all the way all the way on out there to 13. Okay. And you added the Sam Donald MVP as well because I'm guessing you also see a very narrow path where he wouldn't win this in that case. Yeah. I mean, it's basically like if the sea hawks win and it's not because Drake May has four turnovers and the defense has two scores,

28:33which I guess is within the range of outcomes. But then Donald wins nearly every single time in my opinion, especially after what just happened yesterday, guys, I mean, like listen, we're all human and stuff gets like embedded in our brains. JSN just won an award on Thursday. They're going to be like, ah, we're not going to give it to JS any just one on Thursday. We're going to, you know, let's give it to Sam Donald and like people think that way. I mean, I'd like to think that they don't, but people think that way. If if JSN has nine for 130 in a touchdown and Sam Donald has 240 and two touchdowns, I think the lean to give it to Sam Donald and I think, you know, this is, I hate to say it, but we are all human. We're flawed and they're going to go, ah, JSN just won on Thursday. Got his award. Let's give one to Sam Donald. Yeah. And I just think the narrative is too great. Right. We've crapped on this guy for his whole career. He wins the Super Bowl. Come on. Who else are we going to give it to kind of thing? All right. Then you have four other player props that are all, I guess, game script related them. Correct. And so I will say this and I know, uh, you'll have, uh,

29:36a physical being there in a little bit and he will tell everybody this is not the way to play the game, but I'm a little bit more, oh, you've met him before. I am a little bit more, uh, I have high risk tolerance, right? So I am okay coming out of the game and being like, well, I was wrong and I lost. I mean, like I'm okay with that, right? And if I, I think if you're okay with that, then there's not really a problem with it or whatever. So yeah, a lot of mine are highly correlated to how I think the game is going to go. But that didn't necessarily mean they're one way bet. So I mean, Stefan digs over eight and a half, fourth quarter receiving yards. Just because I think they're going to be trailing and passing a ton. Doesn't necessarily mean that he can't have nine receiving yards in the fourth quarter, even if they're, even if this is a tight game or whatever, right? But, but I do think that with the game script that I have in mind, that Steph digs over eight and a half, fourth quarter receiving yards is pretty high up on the pecking order for me because you play in that soft defense. And that's not like case on booty territory. That's not Matt Collins territory. That's Hunter Henry and Stefan digs running for seven yards catching a ball and then falling

30:36over and then getting back to the line of scrimmage and catching another five yards and falling over over and over and over and over again. So that's kind of how I have that one for for digs. I have, I told, I said about the sacks already. Travion Henderson same deal. If they're going to be trailing, they're going to be passing more over two and a half receiving yards basically means one catch for him. He caught a pass in 13 of 17 regular season games. He got there every time that he caught a pass. The four games that he did not catch a pass, y'all probably get the theme here. 31 13 32 13 42 10 and 38 10 wins by the Patriots. So the only time he didn't catch a pass was was blowouts for them. And I don't think this is going to be a blowout in favor of the Patriots. So I think he's involved in the past game. And I think every, I think both these teams are having a tough time running the ball. I took Ken Walker under 73 and a half rush yards. And usually I wait to bet the unders until later. But I think the cinnamon is pretty negative about Kenneth Walker having a big day. And so I don't know if this is going to get higher. I think this one is going to be one of those weird ones that might actually go down.

31:37And if it goes higher, maybe I add a little bit more. But I, um, I kind of went ahead and played the under on one early because I think that this one is, is not very popular out there. Yeah, I mean, the two that I've noticed the biggest movement on at least player prop wise is made, made who is over and the Walker to his under. So yeah, all right. And then you got four others here, Matt, that are, uh, well, let you explain all these. What do you, what do you think is here? So the total players with a rush attempt under seven and a half. And so basically with this, it's like the two running backs for each team gets us to four, the two quarterbacks gets us to six. And then now we have to have a push and we have to have an end around, which, listen, I know in the Super Bowl, everyone gets cute and every gets whatever. But like, you have to run pretty pure. I think to get to eight here. And I don't think it's a complete given that Halani gets a carry. There were six games this year. We're saying Darnell didn't have a carry. I still think he gets one. But again, there were six games this year where he did not have a carry.

32:39And you have to get in a position to have a push. You have to get in a position to want to run an end around. Like people keep mentioning JSN, JSN had four carries all season long. Like it's either Rashid Shaheed gets a carry or this doesn't get home on that side either. And so again, the number at nearly two to one, I thought was just a little too, a little too good of a number to pass up, considering it kind of has to really run pure to get there. And then past receivers total under 13 and a half, JSN Cup, Walker, Barner, Shaheed, there's five there, Ramandre Travion, Diggs, Booty Henry, there's five there. There's 10. We got to come up with another four to get this thing over. We got to get like backup tight ends involved. We got to get wide receiver fours involved and things like that and everything. And it's a very, very concentrated offense on the Seahawks side of things. They only had nine guys with double digit targets all season long. And two of those guys aren't even playing in this game, by the way. So I think that there's a chance that that one stays under as well. I love those two, Gil. I'll be, I looked at those already, Matt, I'll be telling you on those,

33:41what you said, Seahawks, they use the same guys every single time. I think both of those are good, Matt's game decided by exactly three points, plus 455 and game total sacks over five and a half as well from Matt. Ready set bet on Saturday. You're also part of the Sunday all day, Shabang with Summit, right? As well. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, just the obviously the largest audience will have all year long. He says, watching the game along with me and Summit there on Sunday. I detect sarcasm, sarcasm alert, and then of course, Matt. Coming for half time, at least. Yeah, Matt, Matt in this chair starting on Tuesday next week as well. Thank you, Matt, appreciate it. Matt Brown, everybody, coming back with our we sure next. Live from Circle Resort, Casino downtown Las Vegas, Kill Alexander, can't leave Bidlin alongside I say, I've gone very cool, just in our ear, just saying he had got

34:44her up. I say I can first round leader better golf better than I am, was for sure, would have been smart if I just maybe played first round leaders on all my outright skill. I know that would have been good. No, instead, Mats Yama is going to come back and win this and if you want, if you listen to long shots this week or if you want to go back, Matt often does this at the end where it's the hey, what's the golfer that you would beat yourself up over if you wins the tournament? It was Matsuyama. That used to be my question. Who's the golfer golfer that enhances the most self-loathing? Yeah, it would be Hadecki Matsuyama for me this week. It's very close to betting him did not and there he is solo second right now. We get tweets, we get we get we get tweets, we did book Jason H 11 hypergamy, AKA outkicking your coverage. Exactly. That's correct. That's exactly what it is. Nate King. I was wondering if Seattle wins will Darnell be in the hall of fame someday, not on a rookie contract? Will he do enough going forward to be in the hall? So Nate is talking about the the old numbers game adage of you don't win a Super Bowl, at least you haven't since Trent Dilford and Brad Johnson in 2000 and 2002 respectively.

35:49You don't win a Super Bowl without a hall of fame or someone overperforming on the rookie contract where you get to pay everybody else. Well, Jalen Hertz could break this, Sam Darnell could break this. It's interesting that you asked that question because we were looking up here in the lights at ESPN and they actually rehashed a segment from last week, which is will Sam Darnell be considered elite if he wins the Super Bowl? Yeah. Norman Vegas. I've been to all kinds of sporting events, but without a doubt, the craziest thing I've ever seen in person is ski jumping at the 1988 Calgary Olympics when you see someone flying through the air like that and then wonder how they get the guts to do that first big jump. Oh, it's wild. It's insane. It's insane. Out of control. I spoke to somebody the other day. I didn't know. A buddy of mine has a nose, Alex Huddled, the guy who climbed the Taipei tower. Oh, right. I was like, what do you mean you know? He goes, yeah, I've climbed, I've climbed in, you know, was it wall climbing facilities with this guy? And he says, oh, he goes, I'll just tell you how his brain works. His brain works. He just does it like, you know, two stories at a time in his head. And he just, you know, he just thinks of it that way.

36:50And so it's no problem for him. I'm like, what? That's the stupidest thing I've ever. What do you mean? What do you mean? Two stories. And he's a million miles in the air. He goes, yeah. And then I'm like, he also has a wife and two kids. He goes, yeah, he doesn't seem to really care much about that. There are so, there, like there even, you would I have well documented, not big fans of heights. Not a fan. But even that, Gil, like me, me and you are not going to the gym and hopping on the wall thing because there's another aspect of this. Like, I don't need my hands all like torn up like that. Like all those guys like chalking their hands, like that just sounds horribly painful. Kelly Bidlin, his hands are milky white and like, Gil, what happens when you're like, you know, a mile up in the air and you're like, oh, man, my hands cramping are like, it's cut. You don't have to part like you just die. The part just dies. He scared me the most is when he got to the top and he stood. I was like, how are you getting down that too? Like how are you bending and not fault? Anyway, by the way, we were part two coming soon on Netflix. We forgot. Clips down. We forgot about one award, by the way, because we couldn't bet on it. We don't want to leave out Joe Tune of the Chicago Bears protector of the year.

37:54Yep. Oh, and then there was one more assistant coach of the year went to Josh McDaniels. You know what? It's such a heavy focus on betting lessons. There's one here too, right? If you're getting, if you get all excited when you see this market posted in July in August and you're going to go bet it, keep in mind, we did not see many books repost this at all. And we had a part of your strategy, be careful. We had many people tweet during the year. Is this thing ever going to come up again and how do I know they're going to pay me? Because it doesn't, it doesn't reappear. The other one in all honesty, I didn't know this till about three or four weeks ago. Do you know who voted on protector of the year? I do not. It is not the same voters. This is all offensive linemen. Let's vote on this award. It's a different category. Now, assistant coach of the year is also that betting category that appeared and then disappeared. Josh McDaniels got it. They're really not going to give Brian Flore is anything ever, are they? No, I don't know that he would have been. So I make Daniels and then Vance Joseph were the two guys that I think were the favorites for this. Let me repeat that in a different way. They're really not going to give Brian Flore is anything ever, are they?

38:56Never. I guess not. Okay. What shall we do? I shouldn't say that, man. You know what? There was at least a little steep more steam this year behind behind him possibly get ahead coaching job than there has been the past couple of years. This defense unit was amazing. You don't have to argue with me, but I'm just saying at least we heard his name this year. Last time we did or last time when we didn't even hear his name. Ice Goon. Last night I went to a college basketball game in the area with friends. I had my phone on live betting for a book. Someone else, the telecast of the game scores on the book were updated ASAP. The telecast was 20 seconds behind. People need to keep this in mind. Ice Goon. I was saying this. It's incredible. About what I went to the challenger event here in Vegas and Learner Tian was playing and Matt Brown joined me there. The speed with which the books were on top of the score is a challenger event in tennis. This is like a lower tier tennis tournament. I'm my eyes are watching the match. It was like a split second afterward. It's wild. That's incredible.

39:56It's like an advantage. It was an advantage. It was an advantage ever. If you were at the game, you knew you were going to be ahead of the books a little bit. It's wild. You and I have talked about it multiple times. How much faster they've gotten and I can't explain it. I really can't. Usually you were. I was having difficulty. But they have to have a video feed. The books are seeing to adjust numbers. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for all we sure. Let's do it. You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive. Dylan Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Estamos seguros? See. What do you got? No time to mess around here. Are we sure? They got all the awards right, Gil. They definitely didn't get the, they didn't get the, you know, the distance between first and second necessarily right all the time. Did they get all the winners right? I'm going to be the controversial one and say they got them all right except for coach of the year. I don't know why Mike McDonald didn't win that.

40:58Again, same season win total as the Pats exceeded it by the same amount except for Seattle ended up as the number one seed in the heart of conference and the hardest division in football. So, you know, what is the lesson there that better, that voters are not better as necessarily? Yeah. Well, and it just even more reinforces the clefty A guidelines. We go off of so often of just the increase wins year over year. I mean, what we saw, we saw Liam Cohen and finished in second and that wasn't even really close second to third same sort of thing, right? The increase in wins from one win, one year to it. But overall the spirit of the question. Yeah, they pretty much. Yeah, I'm with you. That's kind of how I'm with you. I was actually going one by one. I agree with almost everything there. I'm not going to, I won't weigh in on protector of the year, assistant coach of the year, but. Okay. Are we sure Justin Herbert deserved MVP consideration? I'm not sure. And I appreciate Sam Monson for carrying that much about it and thinking it through in the end, though, we can't be two abstract, right? You got you perform, you know, actual results have to matter, I guess, to some degree.

42:00But I do, I, people are going to dunk on him. But I do appreciate the fact that he cared deeply about and thought his vote through. And he ended up with Justin Herbert as, as his first plays vote for MVP. So I'm not going to knock him. But for me, I, I don't believe you. Yeah. Perfectly said. I think it's a little, I think it's a little absurd. But you know what, I appreciate him carrying that much to dig into it like that. And I don't really know that we know that about every other voter that's out there. So. Okay. NBA, are we sure? Janus will leave Milwaukee in the off season. Yes. Simple answer. Yes. They will get the bucks. We'll get an offer. They can't refuse in the off season. I will. I'm going to repeat what I saw Brian Winhorse say the other day, because I think he's getting pissed off about it at this point. It's really easy. Janus, there's an extension on the table. If you want everybody to shut up in Milwaukee, sign it now, otherwise you have to understand that they're trading you in the off season. It's great. He's not going to sign it. It's absurd. We just, we just don't need this much drama around it. It's wild. Are we sure the Cavaliers, the best team to be, are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference?

43:02I don't know that because then the playoffs would have been surprised you if the Knicks just all of a sudden gelled. No, they're still my team to beat. Yeah. I wouldn't. That's all I don't think it's. I'm not sure about that at all. I think this Cavs thing I think could easily go one of two ways. It works really well or it's a disaster with James Harden running things. I'm going to lean disaster. We'll see. I guess I shouldn't say disaster because I guess what, the Eastern Conference is so thin. There's only so far down they could go. Disaster only in the sense that James Harden has shown playoff performance in the past and that way. Yeah. Right. That is true. Are we sure, Shay Gildes, Alexander will still win MVP? No, not 100% sure, but it's still likely. I don't know. If Yokech has enough games in the end, those numbers are pretty unassailable. It will be a fight. Yeah. It will be a fight. But the biggest thing you said is the F part. Right. I do. It's still think that it's too short to bet into with Yokech right now like three to one. You can only miss one plus game.

44:02Like it is. It's two two small runway here to miss. Are we sure Cooper flag will win rookie of the year? Yes. Next. I don't even think I think that number is still better. Like if you wanted to lay minus 400 or whatever it is right now, I don't. Hell of a season from Con Canippo, I don't think he's going to be able to catch him. I hope he does. Are we sure our zone should be the favorite to win the NCAA tournament? No. No, there's too many good teams. When did that happen, by the way? And I'll channel Todd Wischnev here and Tommy Lloyd is still their coach. So no, are they good? Absolutely. Are they very good? Absolutely. But there's so many good teams at college basketball. I don't think they should absolutely be the favorite. No. I don't think they should talk about with standing sometimes. Some of the basic futures boards, I don't check in on that also, and especially I can call them back. We're going to do jump Michigan. Well, you know, last couple of weeks, Michigan lost Arizona hasn't lost the game. There you go. It was pretty simple. What a Michigan lose. Last week. Yeah, remember that bad two games just they almost lost the Penn State and then they did

45:04lose. Yeah. There you go. Are we sure? The abbreviated style. Steve Fesick, Fesick Fridays on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting network.