A Numbers Game | February 25, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00And numbers call this story now. It's one of those 80s and believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander. He's gone. He said our number three of a numbers game in Vs in the sports betting that one Vs in calm game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV series X of channel 158. Kill I like Xander Kelly Bidlin on this Wednesday morning. Tomorrow on the show, Zach and crack the return of Bill Crackenberger. Right. Crack takes me yesterday goes we're off for Thursday. He's pumped. I was dying laugh. And I I'm actually I'm going to write myself a note right now to make sure I grab the video he took. But oh boy, the casino he discovered in the middle of alligator alley down in South Florida. Oh, wow. Oh, there's like a whole like 12 slot machines in there. It's great. I got a crack Twitter feed. You'll see it. Zach crack tomorrow in part two of Joe PETA on baseball, little Mets case study tomorrow New York metropolitan or all you Mets fans and more the broader baseball fans, but especially

1:00you Mets fans. Oh, oh, do you want to feel bad about your team from last year to an end tomorrow? He is part of the duo that hosts the show that comes on after us prop points. The non football season version Jeff Erickson and Nick Whalen, both from roto wire. Nick joins us now courtesy of progressive gas line at Whalen on Twitter. Just substitute the L with the number one. Nick, how are you doing, man? Doing well, guys, doing well. We have a bird from the doldrums of like every day being negative five degrees here in Wisconsin. So things are looking up daylight savings is coming up. We got a nice NBA slate tonight. No complaints. Good to be here as always. We just got I just got a message from our buddy Michael Montessano is just sending articles about a rookie ladder and how Knepple is above flag on this ladder. Not in the betting market yet, but I'm just curious. Sure thoughts before we get into your thoughts on the games tonight. Cooper flag we've we've we've betted about the last couple of days. The Mavericks and tank mode will they sit him to the point where he actually won't end up

2:05being NBA rookie of the year. Is there a bet on Knepple now for you at plus two 50? Where do you stand on all this? Yeah, you know, I think this is starting to heat up to the point where it will be a real debate. Now Cooper flags still can miss. I believe it's nine more games before he's officially disqualified. Maps only have like 25 games remaining. So, you know, it's going to become kind of a math battle more than anything else. But I do think the if we throw out the games played thing, which, you know, Knepple is probably going to have the advantage there. He's only missed like one or two games the entire year. I think the overall numbers are maybe a little bit closer than that most people realize. You know, Cooper flag right now is sitting at 20 and a half points, six and a half rebounds, 4.1 assists. You know, Knepple is at 19 points per game, five and a half rebounds, three and a half assists. And, you know, I think a lot of people that haven't watched Knepple, haven't watched the Hornets. You know, you kind of think, oh, is he just like a Kyle Corver type of guy? You know, white guy who just shoots a bunch of threes like his game is significantly more well-rounded. I think then the average NBA fan realizes and he's been the more efficient score. He's been vastly more efficient from beyond the arc.

3:07I mean, we're talking historical efficiency for a rookie for almost 44 percent from beyond the arc. And now he has something he did not have a month ago, which is this team narrative around it. Like if the Charlotte Hornets, you know, finish in the play and they make it out of the play in all of a sudden, they're in the post season. That's a, that's a feather in the cap of Con Knepple as opposed to Cooper flag, you know, just playing enough games to meet the minimum for a team that's ultimately kind of tanking under the radar the rest of the season. I mean, the advanced numbers would point you toward Knepple in terms of win shares, in terms of war, in terms of BPM. I mean, he's basically doubling up Cooper flag in a lot of these metrics. So flag kind of came in as the incumbent. It was always going to be his award to lose. He certainly played well enough to win it, but I think there are more voters than we might realize who as of right now would think very seriously about voting for Knepple over Cooper flag. Let's be clear, though. There is no games floor for rookie of the year, though, that would just have to be self-induced by the teams. The floor for game 65 applies to MVP defensive player that you're most improved player.

4:08Not to mention all NBA all defensive. The other part I've added on though here recently, Nick, it is, though, it's going to be in the voters hands. And are they going to punish Cooper flag and the Mavs for him sitting some of these games to kind of make a statement against tanking? It feels like low hanging fruit and something petty that voters could easily do. I think it's a real possibility. I don't know how you feel about that. Yeah. I think some voters could do that. You know, it feels to me. I guess like Cooper flag is probably insulated from that. You know, I could see, you know, teams kind of wanted to bring the hammer down on, you know, Dallas and Utah and Memphis. And maybe this is the only way you can, you could do that. But, you know, Cooper flag plays so hard when he's out there that I don't think anybody looks at him and says like, oh, you know, this, this is part of the problem in Dallas. That would be, that's what I was kind of saying earlier with that, but that would be a new one, right? For the voters to punish the player for, for team strategy. All right. Let's get to, let's get to tonight's slate, which, of course, the, the marquee matchup tonight is between the thunder and the pistons eight points now in favor of the pistons.

5:13This just keeps going up, I believe you're eight points favor of the pistons, no SGA. We assume I'm not sure we've heard that officially, but we assume SGA probably only back at earliest on Friday as his MVP candidate to say, because candidacy becomes a little more shaky based on a minimum games, minimum games played, gotta get to 65. What do you think about this game tonight? Well, I think this has to be a Detroit spot, guys, and, you know, we have a, a very rare situation where OKC is a, an underdog, a sizeable one at that. This is only the third time all season that OKC has been listed as a dog. The second time was last night against the Toronto Raptors where they, they went in and won that game. But, you know, on top of the injuries with no SGA, no jail in Williams, AJ Mitchell, who's been a key piece for them. He's out. But not be surprised if we see at least one of Chet Holmgren or Alex Caruso sit out this game. You know, they were listed as questionable last night, ended up playing obviously it's a road road back to back. It's the third game at four nights for OKC. They've been a little bit more cautious in these situations this year than they were last

6:17season. And, you know, these back to backs have been a huge issue for the Thunder all year. They are one in eight guys against the spread on the second night of back to back. They're failing to cover those games by 11.7 points per game. So I think you have to look at Detroit here. We have a low total in this game at 2.19 and a half. Detroit is 9 and 2 to the under when it has a rest advantage. Those games are sailing under by more than 11 points per game. So we have some interesting trends at play here. I think this is a, all right, we need to bounce back type of spot. We need to lock in for the Detroit pistons. I think this could be a game that OKC kind of soft puns on the second night of a back to back. So I'm on Detroit here. One prop I do like though on the OKC side is Case on Wallace over 19 and a half points rebounds assist. I know we're buying high here. He's been shooting the lights out over the last two games eight of 13 from three after going all of 13. The previous four games, but this is still a really low number. I think the minutes should be there, especially if we see chat and or Caruso sit out tonight. Nick once again, the co-host of prop points where it is chock full of props with he and

7:19Jeff Erickson after we're off the air, Golden State. The stepless Golden State Warriors for and a half point favorites now at the tanking grizzlies, but you you might have a way to exploit the absence of staff here tonight. Yeah, I do lean toward the Warriors here. It's really just you can't trust the Grizzlies. They are, they're taking a somewhat unique approach to tanking, which is, look, we're not really resting guys, you know, that we have what we're calling legitimate injuries for Cedric Coward and Santiago Dama who haven't played in a while now. Basically, everyone who's available just plays the same minutes every night. They'll play 10 or 11 guys somewhere between 20 and 25 minutes. And we saw them lose to the Kings the other night with that strategy. That was a, you know, a win by Sacramento that snapped a 16 game losing streak. It is kind of a tough schedule spot for Golden State, you know, it's a back-to-back after playing into Orleans last night, but a short road trip. The Warriors even without staff, you know, what impresses me about them is that they still play Warriors basketball like they find guys who fit the system, you know, I think Boston

8:22does this. I think, okay, C does this and kind of hard gets back to like those spurs teams of old where you could just plug in, I don't like the Gary Niels of the world and all the sudden he's like significantly more valuable to the spurs than he is at any other team. And again, without staff, we're still seeing the Warriors find ways to generate easy basket. So I think you could do that against a Memphis team that is 28th and defense, 26th and rebounding. They're top five in pace. They're giving up the most points in the NBA over the last 10 games. So I like Golden State here. And then in the prop market, guys, I'm looking at Moses Moody over 22 and a half points plus boards. Where are the calves in the bucks tonight? Yeah, this is an interesting one. You know, you wonder is it a, is it a potential let down spot for the calves? Got a big home win over the New York Knicks last night. You know, neither team, I thought played all that well in that game, but the calves stepped up defensively. New York was absolutely horrible on offense, especially in the third quarter. But the calves have struggled in these spots throughout this season. They're four and five ATS on the second night of back to backs. They're just six and 12 against the number as a road favorites.

9:23So I wouldn't be surprised if Milwaukee, as they've done a few times now over the last few weeks, including last night, by the way, getting a win over Miami. I wouldn't be surprised if Milwaukee hangs around. I do like the over 227 and a half here. We of course need Milwaukee to hold up its end of the bargain, but both of these teams give up a ton of threes. I know the overall defensive numbers for Cleveland look pretty good, but they're giving up 43, three point attempts per game. The Bucks are leading the NBA, giving up 44 attempts per game. I watch a lot of Bucks basketball, a lot of those looks are wide open. So I do think we see a higher scoring game. And then, you know, I'm targeting both of the white shooting specialists on each team here. I think AJ Green over two and a half threes, Sam Merrill over two and a half threes. Both of those pretty reasonable numbers tonight. You look at the two previous matchups between these teams, 18 combined made threes for Sam Merrill and AJ Green. Okay. And then the nuggets and the Celtics, you're, you're staying away from because no Jalen Brown status yet. Yeah. It's got to be a stay away for now. Jalen Brown's questionable second night of a back to back for Boston.

10:25Just hard to, hard to bet this right now. I mean, Celtics coming off a still a really impressive win. You know, I know the sons are decimated right now, but holding that team to 81 points last night, I think still says something. If I had to bet it right now, I think there is a decent chance. We could see Jalen Brown back probably just grabbed the three and a half with Boston. I mean, the Denver team, they've kind of been middle of the pack defensively for most of the season. They've been a bottom five defense guys over the last 15 games. So starting to see some concerning cracks there with no air in Gordon. Yeah. And just to clarify, because a couple of things that Nick alluded to, because we had the alluded to, because we had the the brain dead parlay yesterday, which cashed, I'm not willing to do it tonight. Houston would be the only leg. I'm not willing to put golden state in one without staff and you alluded to the Memphis thing too. Like Memphis is, it's a strange kind of tank. And your bucks, your bucks, Nick, I just, first of all, they're winning. Oh, first of all, they're just winning games, period. And I just think with Yannis looming, he won't let them tank either. So I don't really consider them a tanking team. I'm not sure that you do either.

11:25Now, I agree. I agree. I agree. I would have two weeks ago, but I think Yannis runs this organization and I think he's like, look, I want to be back. I want to play. I want to be as competitive as we can. And look, they've won too many games like they the ship is sailed on them, tanking their way into a top four. That's right. It's not a thing. Nick, appreciate it. We'll look for you at a prop point. Stop of the hour. Thank you. Appreciate it, guys. Nick Whale and everybody. We'll come back. Todd Wishneve in the Hizzie next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now, so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vsimpro. If you are betting college hoops, now's the time to get your edge right now.

12:32You can get Vsimpro access from May 1st for just $29.99 with our hoops mania special. Vsimpro gives you daily best bets, real time betting splits for draft Kings and circa. AI powered prop tools and full access to every Vsim show on demand. You'll also get our March mania, partner, March mania betting guide, back with team breakdowns betting trends, future strategies, and picks from Vsim's top analysts. If you're planning to bet college hoops, Vsimpro gives you a real edge. Sign them now at vsim.com. Slash subscribe. You never know what you say and people want to talk about the YouTube clips, people giving lists, boost mobile trap. Various is best classic YouTube videos, unforgivable and old Greg have to be at least honorable mentions. Not familiar with those grand betting x-factions regarding the viral videos. Anytime our family sees power ball mentioned, we have to say the power ball like the kid from the video classic, the power ball. That's right. He's grandfather said it. String fellow hawk. I missed the parlay and Todd's run last night because I was in Georgia.

13:34Were you doing in Georgia String fellow hawk? Todd Wischnev yesterday, missed his first two, lost his first two, and then messed around and rattled off 11 straight. Boom. John B also texted it earlier for a tidy said, I have the under in the A&M Arkansas game. Could you ask Todd, what do you think about that? And if you could give all the possible final scores that would qualify for under 170 without further ado, wish them Wednesdays with Todd Wischnev everybody at T Wischnev on Twitter, the star of the megapod and college basketball aficionado. Good morning, sir. How are you? 85 83 would work 84 69 might work. Yeah. He's good. This is the latest bit on the megapod and I would die hysterically. Todd last night, new season high for you in college loops on the discord new season high. We busted to plus 147 and chain, which is not bad.

14:34Most of it was early in the year, but we did, you know, we got up like 129 by January second. Then we kind of, we went down to 107 and now we've gone back up to about 147. So I just want to say this to because we briefly touched on this on text, but I do think it's a betting ism, if you will, that needs to be brought up from time to time. Your discord is great. Everyone's great. But every once in a while, there is some, some betting behavior that that leaps to mind, which is if you roll out 100 units up and then you have the audacity to kind of stagnate or even go back a few units before you get to the 140, there is always going to be one or two people, right? That are like, God, geez, I don't know about this guy. That kind of thing. It's like 40 units though in the past like five, six weeks, right, Todd? Like that's a crazy run. Right. Well, it's the sample size is kind of large now. I mean, we've got, I think I can tell you exactly what it is, but it's, I think around

15:371400 bets at this point. And none of them, they're all either one unit or less, maybe there's one or two that was more, but you know, it's, you know, people are just, you know, they think if you go up 120, well, then you should go up 160 and then you should go up to 400 and then you should go ahead, may eight billion. And then you should go up. It's like, okay, but I warned everybody over and over. I said that that wasn't sustainable. The record right now is 913 and 645, so you can do the percentage on. That's probably high 50 somewhere in that range. Wow. But anyways, hopefully we can keep it going as soon as I start crowing, usually that's bad. Yes. Do not beat crow arm strong the rest of the way. You'll be fine. Okay. And I'm pumped that you're here because I haven't brought this up yet. Conference tournaments, small conference tournaments actually begin March 2nd, really an earnest March 4th. Next week is when this goes down. So everyone's pumped about it. And the next week, this all, this all starts or I should say, and yeah, in the next week,

16:38you have, so we don't have conference tournament odds out yet, but you've sort of analyzed some of these tournaments and want to sort of highlight some teams that once the odds come out, might show some value. Yeah. I just went through the conference standings and looked at teams that, you know, I thought might have a shot who weren't like just the big favorite, you know, in their conference. So, you know, like for instance, the American conference, American conference is led by the University of South Florida currently at 11 and 3 in their conference, 19 and 8 overall. In third, in tied for second is Tulsa and Wichita. I mean, they're not exactly, you know, that far down the odds are, I mean, the standings are anything Wichita to me, I've watched them, you know, a number of times. To me, they're just as good as South Florida. So, you know, if you can get, you know, some kind of decent odds on them because they aren't the first place team that might be something to look at when the conference tournaments come out, you know, in the Atlantic 10 conference, George Mason is fourth at nine and five behind

17:44St. Louis, VCU and Dayton, and that's, you know, be a, be a heavy lift for George Mason, don't get me wrong. But, you know, they're a good team. So that's another team you might want to look at. NC State in the ACC is in fourth place, a 10 and five behind Duke Virginia Miami. NC State's pretty darn good and if somebody could knock off Duke, I could see NC State doing something in the big, in the big sky, big sky, that's like a kind of small conference. Portland State's number one at 12 and three in the conference, Eastern Washington tied for second. And there's a whole bunch of teams that are nine and six and eight and seven out of those teams, I kind of like Eastern Washington, they're not, they're not too bad. You know, I can just keep going through these areas, I'm going to discuss, I'll write them all down. Okay. And the big 10, that's not a small conference or anything, but I think Wisconsin deserves note at sixth place at 11 and five behind Michigan, Illinois Purdue and Brasca, Michigan State, obviously, it's a, this is a loaded, loaded conference.

18:45But in my opinion, Wisconsin has the two best wins of the year at Michigan and at, uh, who was the other one? Illinois. I forget. That's kind of unassailable if they do have the two best, I think. I think you're right about that. Yeah. Yeah. I believe they want to add Illinois and Michigan that Wisconsin is a very, I think people are sleeping on Wisconsin the other day, they were only minus three at home against Iowa. And Iowa, you know, I like Iowa. I mean, they, they're the little engine that could, you know, they got all those guys from Drake and from division two and everything, but they just don't, they don't have enough for the big 10. They're nine and seven. The big 10, they're very well coached. They, you know, they do everything right. They just don't have enough talent. I couldn't believe Wisconsin was only minus three. I actually took Wisconsin when they were down one in that game on the money line at like minus one 30 or something, but it was constant to me. There are people who are sleeping on them in the big west conference. That's kind of a small-ish conference. You got UCI Irvine, not their best team Irvine usually dominates this conference year after

19:47year. It's Irvine Irvine Irvine. They got that Russell Porter, I think is his name, the big coach. Uh, anyways, I don't think this is UC Irvine's best team. They're tied 11 and five with Hawaii and CSUN. And I could see UC Davis, I believe coached by Jim Les former Bradley guy or NBA, I don't remember. Anyways, UC Davis is in fourth in that conference. And that's kind of a team that I feel is like sort of under the radar. UC Davis, Kenna saw in the conference, USA is in fourth place at eight and eight. Everybody is number one at 15 and one, probably, you know, not going to lose, but if they were going to lose, I could see them lose to Kenna saw. Kenna saw us kind of, uh, nobody thinks about that team, uh, in the horizon league, oh, this is a good one. In the horizon league, right state is 13 and five in first place, back in fifth place. Green Bay at 11 and eight has really come on. Doug Gottlieb has really done something over there, and I've really liked the improvement

20:52in the team. If from an improvement standpoint, this might be one of the most improved teams from the beginning of the year until now, they really have come on, they beat Oakland, um, where I'm sorry, they almost beat Oakland the other day, but they beat somebody else real good in their conference, uh, on the road the other day, they're, they're, they're really coming on. Now, are they going to win? Who knows? But at fifth, you're probably going to get a heck of a number on them, you know, so that, that might be one to take a look at. And then the, the mountain west, you know, here in Pittsburgh, if we're ever watching them biggest games down there, you know, they call it the mountain west, M-A-W-P-A-N, mountain. Anyways, in the mountain west conference, there is a team got a lot of good teams in the mountain west this year. Utah State is number one, San Diego State number two. And then you go all the way down to eighth place at nine and eight. The log jam, but eighth place Colorado State is a team that I like a lot. They shoot the hell out of the three ball.

21:53And if you want variance in games, you want a team that can shoot the hell out of the three ball because this is a team that can shoot 60% from three. In a game, it happens all the time, you know, I mean, they're shooting 40% overall in the year. And then top 10, the whole year out of our 365 schools, they can shoot the hell out of the ball. They're on a streak. Now they won six in a row. So they're playing well last night. They came back and I had them coming back against Fresno at home and they did it for me. Colorado State team did watch. I like that team. And then one more because we were running out of time is in the what conference it is. It's the Southland conference. You have the head is the same SF Austin team is number one. And New Orleans is down in number four. New Orleans just beat them at SFA for the SFA's first conference loss of the year. And New Orleans, I was I had my eye on them all year, even in the nonconference. They were playing tough teams pretty tough. So they're fourth. So you might want to take a look at them. That's great Todd. All that stuff is awesome.

22:54Sounds like you like Colorado State the best of the bunch. I don't want to pin you on one, but sound like you're most enthusiastic about them. I really like Colorado State. I mean, the problem is there's so many good teams in the mountain west that it's like they could get kicked off, but, but, you know, I do like I do like Colorado State. Russell Turner, by the way, head coach, you see our right now, Russell Porter, right? Russell Turner, a plus Todd. Thank you. Todd wish never everybody wish never Wednesday. I'll be back on a numbers game. Back on a numbers game, live from a circuit resort casino downtown Las Vegas, Derek Steven Shamrell, on the desert, majestic downtown Las Vegas. Let me give him a subscribe it that way. Skill Alexander, we get to eat, speak in the book, Darren Frazier, majestic, speaking of parlays, nothing like losing the final leg of your five leg Parley on a three pointer from just inside half court at the buzzer. That means absolutely nothing to change who wins, but kills your very profitable day. Thanks Jeremy Grant. Yeah. Yeah.

23:54Yeah. What are you trying it? What are you trying so hard, Jeremy? What are you trying so hard? You got all money in the world. You don't need to try hard. That was a, if I'm reading this correctly, that was an $1,808.5 leg Parley that would have paid 39 large. Yeah. Oof. Boys and girls, sometimes parlays aren't smart. We haven't talked to him in a while, but congratulations to John Lagaza, named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association baseball writer of the year. Come on. FSWA, but putting out a word to see does he wash his mouth out with soap before he writes that stuff? Have you heard of his podcast? Yeah. I mean, you only listened to John. No, I don't read as much John Lagaza stuff, but yeah, baseball writer of the year. Congratulations. John Lag has a, that's right, instant offense, the microwave when he's on the show. Good for John. Mazelto, Steve the proxy, bad beat of the morning, driving to USPS, like I'm Jason Weingart with my wife, because she sells something called diamond painting kits.

24:55Gil starts singing Casanova and she follows suit, which happens right as you're reading my tweet. I rewind. She sings again. Gil, she was impressed with your cultural knowledge. Well, thank you very much. Sorry to, sorry to ruin your glory there, Steve. This does sound like a nightmare morning, yeah. Dan Groschelle agrees with Todd Wisconsin's two road winds at Illinois, Michigan are the two best winds in the nation this year in college hoops. Don't forget to they got robbed out of the wind at Indiana and they both raised Michigan state in Madison. Yeah. Wisconsin is one of those sneaky teams, but I agree with Will's overall premise of this college basketball season, which is you have so many very good teams, right? You have like literally like 16, 17 deep that I do want and then the bubble itself, if you go to the other side, the bubble is really weak. You wonder how many big time upsets we're going to get in March madness. Will there be one? Will there be two?

25:56Most likely yes, but will it go beyond that this year? I don't know. Can't wait. By the way, podcast schedule drew Zach and I hopefully will do an Indian Wells meeting the book podcast followed by the big March madness podcast, Will and Todd will be back for that. Still riding off the one from a few years ago, where we'll had FAU go into the final four and Todd, that was crazy and Todd cost himself $35,000 by not entering the draft King's bracket. Yeah. Would have finished second will with the FAU call man, that was a fun year. God, that was fun. That was awesome. The FAU to the final four, he called that on the podcast, but the Todd thing was, you know the story about the Todd, yeah, thank God he wouldn't have won it. Thank God he would have only finished second because if he had lost out on a million dollars, we may not be talking about Todd today. I don't know how we handle that. Okay, we have some NFL stuff here.

26:57This is a mock draft, Mel Kipers doing mock drafts, everybody's still doing mock drafts. This is what late April, as always. Just pumped his out. This is from yesterday. He pumped it out. That's what he did. Fernando Mendoza, I don't know if you know this is going to be the first pick in the draft of the Raiders. What were you saying off your yesterday, you would just be in a bubble if you were Fernando Mendoza walk around with a literal bubble around you at every point. Oh, sorry. You just had a nasal attack on onset. Thank God the cameras love. Yes. Yes. We talk about these guys not participating in the combine. I would have I walk up to an estate asylum and be like, Hey, can I just like book a room here for like a month, month and a half to be in a padded room and just don't let me leave. Don't get me sharp instruments and all like, no, no, just yeah, they'd be like, wow, it really isn't safe. Caleb Downs mocked by Kiper to go number two, the safety for Ohio State, which is interesting because Arvel Reese is the one in betting markets who is the favorite to go number two. Yeah. Kiper for what it's worth.

27:58Kip goes David Bailey from Texas Tech, lineback from Texas Tech, third to the Cardinals. And then he has Arvel Reese going to the Titans linebacker at Ohio State. And then you have Spencer Fano, the offensive tackle from Utah, going fifth to the Giants, Carnell Tate, White Afro, Ohio State going to the Browns and sunny styles. Linebacker Ohio State going to the DC skin. So he has, Mel Kiper has three Ohio State Buckeyes drafted in the first seven picks. No, check that. He has four. Oh, man, that's wild. He has four Buckeyes going in the top seven. That would be unprecedented. Yeah, that's wild. Didn't even know we got Daniel Jeremiah's from last week as well. And then he did his normal like media call, I think at the end of the last week, but he's got Arvel Reese dropping to Washington at seven. It's kind of interesting. Interesting. And he has David Bailey going to as well. Didn't, didn't Kiper had, David Bailey, he had, uh, downs, he had downs to the two.

28:58That's right. It man. He is down. I was going to say, where did Kiper have Ruben Bain going? Jeremiah has Ruben Bain going forward to the Titans, did 10th to the Bengals. I'm being told by Danny. Thank you. And the one I keep seeing, oh, Jeremiah, love to the chief. Yes. Yes. Oh, is that what you're going to say? Everybody has that happening. And like I get it, he, he, he looks great. Maybe I don't know if I'm ever going to get on board with this again with the running back this early, just even for the chiefs. It's one thing for us to say that about the Raiders last year, but like the chiefs, yes, are a different story. However, the way that NFL economics work these days, I just like you always have something, a position that you need to get better at like net, not only now, but in the near future and it's just running back is such a luxury. So with number one, with Fernando Mendoza, a done deal going number one, not a done deal officially, but you get the idea.

29:59Number two pick, our Val Reese is minus 105, neither Kiper or Jeremiah had him going number two went through a lot of Mox end of last week, you'll basically the only two that don't have him going number two. Oh, interesting. Jeremiah is pretty much the most accurate over time, one of the more other guys I've relied on more mainly David Bailey of Texas tech is plus 140 right after our Val Reese to go number two, Ruben Bain Jr. Miami plus 475, Caleb Downs begins the double digit paraded 25 to one. Wow. Do you let me just ask it this way, we're we're still 35 to one yesterday says we're still oh, really, we're still two months away from the NFL draft. Does it feel like, so this for those who are just landing on sports betting, this used to be, and I think we can say it that way now, this used to be for many, many years, the biggest ATM machine going for better. We on a numbers game, we would have like I think we had an eight, no year, we had like

31:01a 11 and one year, my pin tweet is from back in 2018, when we just killed the NFL draft. But the last couple years, last few years, this is no longer that it's first of all, it's not offered everywhere, all these big talkers here in Vegas, right? And then it's just generally not as beatable as it wants to us because it really is just an information gathering thing. Does this draft feel to you like it's going to be a big one, from a betting standpoint, from a betting standpoint, it is to reveal itself, I'll put it that way, because now you're right. I mean, like last year, I had a couple of nice hits, still been winning drafts pretty much like every year, but you're right. It's not the same as what it was, even just three, four, five years ago, according to underdog NFL, Arvel Reese said he will run the 40 yard dash and participate in line backer and edge drills at the combine, combine fever, which is so this is a little telling because you have all the top pass rushers that are choosing to do different, I take different routes at the combine this week.

32:04Arvel Reese running the 40, okay, all right, they've barely going to participate in all combine testing, except short shuttle. I don't know about you, Gil, but if I was an NFL team, and I was working about or interviewing the first thing I would have to do is do the short shuttle, I leave it out the short shuttle. I don't know, this is again, like isn't that obvious? Like I'm clearly leaving this out because I'm not good at it. Todd makes say, according to the dog NFL says, Ruben Bay and juniors bounce it on the whole thing. Right. So three different pass, right? Yeah. He's put enough on tape. I, this can only hurt me to work out more. He's 100% correct. Plus Ruben Bay and juniors, can I say something a little more qualitative? Ruben Bay and juniors also has the, it also looks older. Yeah, he does. He does. Yeah. So like, why even let that subtly enter the minds of anybody? Yeah. I don't know if he's thinking that way, but I would. I just feel like, yeah, no, I definitely have enough on tape. I think the swing piece here in like the top 10 is Caleb Downs, right?

33:07Because I think it's, look, it's, it's Mendoza and then it's a lot, it's, it's a lot of really good past rushers and some good offensive lineman, right? Which we know to NFL teams are going to jump at the opportunity. How did teams view Caleb Downs and how does he move throughout this process? I think that part's going to be really interesting. I think nothing is known past one. And then are we really talking about running back going like in the top? I'm glad you brought that up. Because again, last year, what I said was, I loved Ashton Gentian College. I never thought he'd be awesome as a pro. Um, he had a fine rookie year, but like the Raiders aren't good enough to have a luxury picket six. And that's like the chiefs are completely different story. I get it. Maybe you're out there saying they aren't good enough to have a luxury pick. I don't know. I'd be worried about other things for the future. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, how many of these quarterbacks are we going to talk about? Like, like, my home's needs wide receiver help. I know he gives him an offensive piece, but like, there's the bills and chiefs are as great as they've been all these years, always in need of a wide office or making these

34:08quarterbacks do it by themselves. Coming back, we'll cap the bets and more numbers game based in these sports betting network. Tell me, let's take care of the nasal issue. We had sweets meeting both chance copper pot. I suppose we should end the show the same way we began it with this bad beat with the, uh, what he says, he goes, I had a bad beat with that damn three by Jeremy Grant as well. Had a beautiful middle set up with plus money on both sides. Just land somewhere between four and nine. He's talking about the T-Wools Blazers game last night. I found myself checking the score for 30 minutes after the game because I couldn't believe what I just saw for those who missed it. T-Wools are we're up nine with less than 40 seconds left in the game. Spread is either five and a half or six and a half.

35:09Kelly had it at five and a half chance. How he said a middle set up and a barrage of threes by the Blazers and two missed free throws from Ant. Yeah, it's going to be a tough one. T-Wools win by three. So you said you wanted to bet the NBA and then there's also like the, like, I, I had them in that money on parlay. So, okay, at least that helped. Like I have, I have pretty big positions now on these Portland trailblazers over on their win total. So it's like, hey, you messed around who all that not only, like, you covered, don't win though. Cool. What's the debt? What's the denny off to your story? Is he coming? He's, that's supposed to be out a long time. Is he? I mean, we're at a point kill where it is. Let me see. Okay. First injured. The back in the loss against the nicks on January 11th, after which he missed. He sat 10 of the next 17 games add on the last one. He's missed a, I think it's, I think he's missed 11 out of his last 18, 18, yeah, it's

36:1211 at 18. I don't, dude, I think him leaving that game against Phoenix, that I think was the sign that I needed. Oh boy. This is something serious. He originally hurt his back January 11th against the nicks, closing minutes of a loss to the nicks. What a, what a way to do that. Well, okay. There you go. I got no idea. He's also on that, on that, you know, how many games more can he afford to lose thing? So to miss for most improved. Yeah, it's got six more available than, yep, six more he can miss. Bobby get his, what is happening? First kill throw shade on soccer goalies during a love island segment. First of all, it's love is blind, Bobby. Let's get that right. Then PSAs for the Jonas Brothers is Gil Benjamin buttoning before our eyes. Gil, if you keep getting younger and Kelly's disappearing, there won't be a show soon. Well, love island would make me super young. I couldn't get into love island the same way. Love islands ridiculous. He's going to cook up some parlay as with Chris and Dardel and he's going to inject some use in his life soon. You will get Chris, Chris Foster's $5 parlay segments.

37:17German hockey. We're not going to do that. Yeah, wait. This is how Chris explained one of his parlay's the other day. So that's German hockey guys. That's all that's all. What about reading here are the bets we've made on the show earlier in this from the beginning, these bets have these matches have not taken place yet. These are both in Austin, Texas might have more for subscribers later at visa.com slash picks. But the ones that I made last night, Whitney, a segue plus 204 versus Rebecca, Massa, Rova. We hit on a segue the other day is a big dog. We're trying to do it again plus 204 versus Rebecca, Massa, Rova. And Oksana, Selik, Medova plus 116 versus Camila, Roca, Mova. So segue and Selik, Medova, that's where that's one of the, I don't know if it holds the record for for toughest names on a day and tennis betting, but that's up there. So segue and Selik, Medova and then when Banyama to win MVP in the NBA, 25 to one, we went through the graph we had up earlier about games that these guys, all the contenders

38:18can afford to still miss based on the 65 game minimum rule that was in student 2023 to combat load management and has now really devolved into the fact that the top tier of guys in this case, SGA and Yokech might both not qualify. You might get a second tier MVP as a result that guys with legitimate injuries, therefore might get hampered by this. And that in the end, these NBA teams who might otherwise not play guys down the stretch might consider this award for their players and say, well, I wouldn't play fill in the blank here today. Let's say it's SGA, but I got to get him on the court for 20 minutes. Who knows all those things? Yeah. Once again, Adam Silverbatchian Tim Bond temps, I think we'd say this. I think he did say this about his straw poll last week, his second edition. He always does three editions with the games, missed a factor adding in.

39:19It's the a key. He said he probably released confidence and a lot of these people have been in their votes and these could wildly change because of it. Sure. Shay got 78 first place votes, Yokech got 18. The other four, one to Cade and three to Victor. Think that's a little telling to us the one for Cade and three to Victor. That is again, my thinking on, on Wemba Nyama to an MVP is the path is Yokech just misses two more games. He's a squalpha. Shay, it's missing just the bevy of games and ab injuries are pesky and you don't want it. If you're the, if you're the Oklahoma city thunder, there is no point where you will take his MVP candidacy over good God. Yeah. We have to have him healthy for the playoffs. I try not to read into these situations too, too much. Man, am I getting, you read the diagonal quote, quote earlier, I'm getting those vibes of like they are, they are going to be very cautious with this and I don't think they should be. We talked about like Yokech caring earlier, shit cares for his career, but like the championship

40:22still means more than any way more. And then and the second part of that is just what you alluded to, which I said earlier, which is, and so if it becomes a Cade Cunningham versus Victor Wemba Nyama thing, I think I'm going to win on that. Yeah. I think so. I think so. I don't, I don't think Luca and Jalen Brown are going to be part of the mix and honestly, this is, uh, it was beating myself up me when I was texting about it yesterday, but it was like, you know, Monday, I talked about making that bet and too much I used the excuse of to kind of fill out my overall portfolio for MVP, I think Wemba Nyama to win MVP is just a good bet right now. Flat out. I just think it's a good bet. I think it's the best bet to make an MVP. I think he's extremely live. I'm surprised. This is 20. I'm surprised it's over 20 to one. I would take 25 to one still at Fandall. I got it at 25 to one at bed MGM yesterday. Honestly, I think he should be more like 10 to one something like that. Yeah. Well, he ain't though. Let's fast forward 48 hours. He might be there. Yes. Or like I texted you every time, every time he comes down with a rebound and lands a little funny.

41:23I think his legs about to snap. So, you know, unfortunately, there's always there are moments every game we're like, is he getting up? Exactly. Is he coming back? All right. NBA for me tonight. I did last six and a half with the Victor women, Yama Led Spurs tonight to Toronto against the Raptors who are coming off a back to Packworth. He gets to play Oklahoma City and then they get San Antonio rolled into town and fun with that Toronto. Scotty Barnes already on the, and I've got my games backwards. I'm sorry. Spurs. Yeah. No spurs at Raptors. Scotty Barnes questionable as well tonight. That's something to look out for the game. I just got mixed up with was one Nick hinted at earlier. I don't have a bet here yet, but OK, seeing and Detroit, man, that under is looking attractive and that number is going down to 19 and a half is pretty much where it is right now. That game against Toronto was lined in I think to 17 is where we closed at. This Thunder team with the same pieces likely out going into Detroit.

42:24I don't really get how that totals higher. So I'm looking at the under that game than the other one I did. I took a piece of the nuggets early thought Nick did a good job of breaking down. I'm expecting Jalen Brown back tonight. I think that was just a night off for him last night when they were in Phoenix against a depleted sun steam. I expect he's going to be back, but this is still three and four four to Boston Celtics back to back situation heading into Denver. It doesn't get much tougher as far as travel scenarios go. This was Boston team has been awesome recently. Nick pointed out. Yes, the Denver defense has been bad. We see that off and though with Yoke, it's when he's playing offense good defense, not so good. I'm not too concerned about that. I think it's a big time game tonight, though, interested in watching it early, early bet for me on the nuggets. I might add to that if Jalen Brown gets added in this number goes more that way. Greg Hoops Peterson, fab five earlier on the show, college hoops tonight, Charlotte 49 or plus one and a half versus North Texas. As you can see, the gold digging pick inside the sea blew my, he's on Charlotte Drake Valpo under 148 to half ACC clash.

43:27They'll can't believe these two teams on the ACC Cal and SMU Cal. He's on Cal taking the two and a half the bears grand Canyon laying seven and a half versus the run in Rebels of you and LV and the West Coast Conference game Santa Clara St. Mary's under 152 and a half. Those from Greg Coops Peterson will hill to college basketball plays a little more marquee matchups from him, Texas catching the points. He's taking Texas plus the six and a half versus Florida and St. John's taking the points in the rematch against a Yukon, despite the what he called triple revenge going back into last year. He's taking St. John's plus five and a half at Yukon, a couple of season long baseballs from him as well, Ryan Hellsley of the Orioles, most regular season saves 31 and the Washington Natanles worst record in all of major league baseball four to one from Will as well. Nick Wayland pistons laying the seven and a half versus the Thunder tonight big NBA game though, not with SGA. He's got OKC's case in Wallace over 19 and a half points rebounds assist in that game.

44:28In the Warriors game, he's got Moses Moody over 22 and a half points of rebounds and then Cavs bucks. He's going over to 27 and a half and he's taking Milwaukee's AJ Green over two and a half threes in that ballgame as well. Leave me said Sam Merrill over to believe he did as well. Yeah, I believe he characterized that a certain way. Didn't he? Yeah, he did. Yeah. So I thought, um, them's that those are all the bets, prop points, speaking of Nick Wayland and Jeff Erickson next followed by money most was stormy and JVT and then Mitch and Paul will follow the money. Enjoy from Visa, these sports betting network.