A Numbers Game | February 25, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00A number is called the story. I always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander. Go and be sent. Hour number two. A numbers game with Beeson. Beesmore is betting Network Beeson.com. Game plus I heart radio YouTube TV. For Series X and Channel 158, Kill I like Xander that right there is Kelly Bidlin' everybody. What's happened? Who? Sorry I got distracted by you. I was reading some of these tweets. Yeah, I don't know why, but the half-second delay. Oh yeah, you thought I had it. That threw me off. Yeah, it was medical concerns for a second. Medical event. Still to come. We'll do the AFC season win totals in the NFL. Take a crack at that. We'll also do some MLB season long stat stuff as well. We'll do some offensive ones today. Home run, RBI, stolen bases. Just take a little glance at that stuff. Make see if there's a bet here in some season long MLB stuff. Will Hill will join us. I don't want to sneak wailin' to Unwish Neve. I have something to tell you.

1:02That I think I need to really say it out loud. Okay. I think I might be able to open up to me. Thank you. I think I, uh, just me and you, right? Yeah, let me also listen. I think I might like the Jonas Brothers. Oh, God, I have so many follow-up questions. Like, my ears are, my ears are, like, listen without prejudice, right? I'm not one of these people is like, Oh, you like those. No, you've always been like that. Right? So I didn't really, you know, there's a few songs that you hear, but I don't really associate. I didn't really know was the Jonas Brothers. So I was like, yeah, whatever. Here's some, some songs. And then like a year ago, I heard this song Waffle House. You familiar with this? No. Oh, my God. Banger, right? So I kind of like, I don't know any titles. Maybe if I heard it, would I know? It's outstanding. Anyway. So I was like, wow. That, that song was awesome. That's the Jonas Brothers. Wow. So I just kind of put in the, in the deep recess of my brain. And then yesterday, yesterday I heard a, can I call it a masterpiece? I don't know. Vacationized by the Jonas Brothers. Good God, man. I'm late to the party.

2:03Um, I have multiple follow up questions. Yeah, please. Are the, are the Jonas Brothers still, uh, a musical act together as brothers? I think they're back together. I think they, I think they, I think they were together. They went off. They did their own solo thing. That's what I thought they're back together. So they returned. And then these songs that you're hearing are newer Jonas Brothers songs. I guess they're like, I think they're like a year old. Okay. But like the, the reunion of the Jonas Brothers. Not from the Jonas Brothers. Correct. Like 15 years. Jonas Brothers 2.0. Okay. And by the way, don't refer to them as the Jonas Brothers. It's apparently Jonas Brothers. Lose the, right. It's right. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to go country club. And let's do it. Oh, yeah. Low sticks. Well, Wilson's family should be happier than ever. Hey, got engaged. He's engaged. Your grandson is engaged. Again, shout out to Ben Wilson, our friend, our colleague,

3:03engaged to get married. I don't know if they've said a day yet. Danny's landlord. Danny's, Danny Higgins landlord. Ben's like, Danny, where's my rent? Just a recap. This is the tennis bets from earlier. I've got two in Austin, Texas. I might add more for subscribers later today at visa.com slash picks. But the way that these tournaments are in, in every time zone imaginable around the clock, I can't handicap them all overnight. So there'll be some maybe later today. But I do have two in Austin, Texas Whitney of Segway, who we went on as big dog the other day. She is a, the market is not pricing her correctly. She's plus 204 versus Rebecca Masarova. And then Oksana Selik Medova, plus 116 versus Camila Rachimova. So we'll Segway and Selik Medova are the two tennis plays, at least that I have currently. After a bad tennis day yesterday, golf, the golf, the cognizant. That's right, man. This, can I just say this? This might be the worst field I've ever seen in my life. Yeah, it's sad, man. Sad. This is the golf tournament

4:03in Palm Beach Gardens that I covered for God, 10 plus years. What did it used to be called? The Honda Classic. Of course. It was known as the Honda Classic, to me, Gil, because this just changed like two years ago. I don't even know what the company cognizant has done. Yeah. PGA tour headquarters were there. They moved. That was all part of the change here recently. It is sad, man, because this always, it just falls in a terrible spot in the golf schedule. You're coming off the West Coast swing. You're moving to Florida. Now the Florida swing begins. But with all these signature events, we just played back-to-back signature events. We go to Bay Hill next week. We've got the players coming up here soon. This is the most obvious event ever for these guys to sit out of. Put out on top of that, that this course, I mean, the whole time I was covering it, this was a top, and probably, it probably still rates this way that has gotten easier. This is one of the toughest courses on the PGA tour. It used to be one of the toughest on the PGA tour. You would often see scores in, you know, four under five under win. But they did, they did redo the agronomy

5:04two years ago. This has gotten a little bit easier. What did they redo? The agronomy, the grass and everything that they've done, that they build out there. So yeah, the problem is, if you want to go really deep on this kill, is you try to play this on Bermuda grass. But at this time of the year down in South Florida, Bermuda grass hasn't fully grown out yet. So you often hear about grass being overseeded in golf tournaments. The Honda Classic started doing that a couple of years ago. They had stuck to just their Bermuda grass. They finally decided they needed to overseed it, making it a little bit more consistent for the players. That was a problem. They were getting shots out of the fairway that were flying funny, getting hit the green and wouldn't hold on. Agronomy, the science and technology of producing and using plants by agriculture for food, fuel, fiber chemicals, recreation or land conservation. Recreation in this sense. Yeah. 15 holes with water danger. This is the most water balls on the PGA tour. You will get,

6:04the last couple years though, this has gotten a little easier but that will always be a danger. You will see scoring conditions get easier but this is all off the T15 holes with water danger right off the T. So it is a paramount. It is absolutely important that you have a distance and accuracy dialed in off the T this week. You will see some holes. Of course, it's awesome. Some holes where there are dog legs that guys are going to be forced to dial back from driver off the T. There are other holes that they can let it fly. So it's kind of something you want to do a mix if you're doing some of your own handicapping at home between driving, driving distance, and accuracy, super heavy approach course. You're going to hear that a lot but this is definitely a second shot course. Is this Daniel Burgers home course? Yes. It's the one I always bring up with Daniel Burgers. Daniel went to high school 10 minutes away from here. He has played at this tournament a bajillion times. You got to bet him. Has played. I usually bet him every year. I might be adding him still at some point. The form is just not gotten right.

7:04It's going to only gotten worse this season. Okay. So like just put this in perspective. Prior to 2024, average winning score was 10 under par at PGA National. Okay. But one of the toughest not major courses in the two years since the average winning scores jumped up to 1800. This is so much easier. And the winners have been triple digits. Then you've gotten some long shots from all over the place. Joe Highsmith won this event last year at 120 to one Austin Ecroat the year before to 110 to one. I did hit on Chris Kirk the year before that in 25 to one. But yeah, that's kind of before the changes really took place. So get to the field. You're going to see Ryan Gerard. If you're familiar with golf, you know he's been playing very well this season into last season. He was. He's still 18 to one. It's 18 to one guy who hasn't won yet on the PGA tour. Followed up by Shane Lowry who plays this event very well and does play this event every year. Satisfied about this skill. Shane Lowry joining a lot of the other superstars of golf. Yeah, about a seven minute drive away

8:04for TGL last night for indoor golf. Oh, but all those guys just skip this one. Shane Lowry highest ranked golfer in this field. Yeah, he is the class player and he has some, look, he keeps coming back here because he does well here. T11 T4 T5 in a second place finished over his last four years. And look, he's had a good season so far. I lost the top 20 bet on him last week. He finished T24 over at Genesis did T8 pebble and then was T26 and T3 and Dubai to start the season. So playing pretty good golf. I couldn't get there on the outright number deal but I did play him top 10 and top 20 this week and did play Jart Ryan Gerard in the top 20 market as well. Not a ton of experience here. But with the changes in course, it doesn't help. I don't matter as much. T25 in a fourth place finish in his two starts here. This was, he was my third highest rated guy this week. 14th off the T second on approach over the last 20 rounds. Ninth and birdie are better scoring. So look T28 T45 T11

9:04and then two second place finishes already. Ryan Gerard's been one of the hottest golfers on the PGA tour. I can't get there on these outright numbers. Guys, you can play it if you want. I decided to go into placement markets with those two top 10s and top 20s. I did bite on Nikolai Hoegard. Hopefully it's the right Hoegard this week because him and Rasmus are both in the field. I played him at outright 24 to one. We'll bring up as Danny spotted Gil by far the best number is was 24 to one and it was at Kelsey where I bet it. You're usually going to see about 20 to 22 to one out there on him. So bet him 24 to one. His results so far this year. T3 waste management Phoenix open T22 at the farmers T4 do by desert classic. He has been gaining in basically all statistical categories each week. Second and par four scoring, which is really important. Here's fourth and par five scoring. They did move one par four to a par five two years ago. So that matters more. Really good all around game coming into this tournament.

10:05Bet him outright and bet him top 10 as well. Then the only other outright that I did bet is how tall Lee who is a guy that was on my radar kind of end of last year and then couple tournaments this year looking good at. And shout out to see it in a shot because he and I were talking a bit about this on Twitter too. Miss cut at the Phoenix. But then T11 at the farmers and T8 at the AMX. He was looking really good for a couple tournaments in a row earlier this season. Comes in with a really strong ball striking game last 20 rounds. 11th off the T20th on approach. First and par four scoring. I pro most people are probably not aware of him. I think this is a course that could set up pretty well for him. I expect a good season at him. So I bet him 49 to one in the outright market and took a plus two 12 top 20 on him. All the other guy then. I think through I went through all these placement market wise Sam Ryder. Good approach player. He's getting up there in age results have not been as good recently. He's got a lot of quality starts at this at this course though. T48 last year.

11:06And then it was T21 T9 T8. So very familiar with this. And then your favorite golfer. I know. Christiane Bezadenhout. Bezadenhout played in a matchup over Thorbeer and Olison. Bezadenhout did rate out very highly for me this week. I am getting sick and tired of betting the guy comes to outright and high placement finishes. Thanks for giving me the segment off man. I appreciate it. No problem. Cognizant classic by the cognizant helps companies modernize technology, re-imagined processes and transform experiences so they stay ahead in a fast-changing world. The hell is that? I love this. This is like the bull game sponsor, right? It's awesome. We're not smart enough to understand. We make money. Baseball season longs. I got some stuff to say. Next, on a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting networks. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Minds set alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use.

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13:07Y'all the best. Good. Bad. Should be funny. This is from Burke. 64-34-6389. He says if a team knows they're no good at a skill that's been broken down by HDCP models, three point defense against the run versus left handed pitchers, etc. Don't they work on that skill and get better at it? Does practice efficiency figure into handicapping? Oh, is there an expectation of improvement? I guess is what you're asking. There is none. There is there is no expectation of improvement necessarily if the sample size is large enough. Would be my quick hack answer to that. Yeah. Yeah. It's. And I need to give a half-ass one too. I think that I think it's a different answer in a different situation for every, every sport and every kind of situation he just laid out there. Pitching takes a while to manifest. I think if you jump to conclusions on pitching, just use the left-handed pitcher one. Velocity is the most sticky early. But yes, it requires a sample size for it to draw conclusions.

14:08And I think one of the most dangerous stats to quote, use, look too much into his three-point defense in the NBA because a lot of that just ends up being shooting luck. A lot of interesting noise. And then guess what? And I specifically say the NBA because this second part I don't believe is true. College basketball, the first part would apply to as well, right? Second part in the NBA. That three-point defense gets a lot better in the playoff. Yeah. It's all of a sudden. And there's no practice. That's just, hey, let's actually try harder. Beware of people though who quote free throw defense, right? Oh, God. Feel goal defense. That kind of thing. V. James Lloyd. Thanks for the brain dead NBA Parley accidentally bet it twice. I had a great night. You're the man. There you go. Dan Groschel. Oh, no. Chris Foster works on A and G. You don't expect him to listen to the show while he's working. Do you? Let's set some realistic expectations on the young guy. Hey, let's be clear. Not only does it work on the show is the audio guy. Has only job is to listen to the show crack. And I talk about this all the time. We have like lifelong friends.

15:08They don't care what we say. Chrissy college football season win totals remain my favorite of the win total markets. He's a big college football guy. My mish book of Chrissy Andrews is the conference only ones down the South. That's awesome. Steve Wilmo bets. I was all aboard on the brain dead Parley yesterday. And my infinite wisdom decided to add Indiana money line versus North Western. Oh, for an odds bump. You dominated the game until they didn't hashtag on an idiot. Hashtag can't have anything nice. Bert Weed of Meyer. Sorry about that, Steve. Yeah, don't don't don't don't get frisky with the parley. Bert Weed of Meyer. Hey, Chris behind the glass. Congrats. Just curious. Did they withhold the tax from your winning parley because here in New York, if it reaches two thresholds over five K winning and over 300 to one, they automatically glom it. Yeah, Chris wasn't aware of that. Chris wasn't aware of the 300 to one. That part doesn't happen out here though. The 300 to one does. No, the automatic withholding. Not the automatic. Yeah. Uncle Bush. Another issue beyond not knowing what panics is.

16:08They have problems on the defensive side of the ball with James Pierce Jr. Off field issue. That's absolutely right. Oh, PA W with one of his ordinary tweets ready for this. He goes, is this still visa? I heard Jonas Brothers talk. Let me know so I can tune back in. Cheers. Whenever someone tweets that. You know what I know? He hangs on my every word. He cannot resist the fascinating words that come out of my mouth. Also, he's now Googling vacation eyes and waffle outs. And he's jamming both of them. Skola remind me on the break so I can do that. Oh, it's fantastic. Skola hoops Peterson on monster energy. Could you imagine Colin Murphy, one of the greatest nicknames in the history of nicknames for the youngest Jonas brother who is not in the group bonus Jonas. Oh, I didn't know is there a fourth? That's great. Jason H 11 Gillie. You should start a tennis discord. Then you can try to stack up your record against Todd Wishingham. Oh, you're not beaten Wishingham this year. Chris Patrick, animal kingdom, great series of one of the Jonas brothers. Also great serious land man outstanding. Ah, you know, it's the top of my list. I just haven't been able to get into it yet. No. And you know who I gave credit to while we're talking shows real quick.

17:10Because I'm going to slam him here. Was it the Chris confirmed this for me? There's a season finale of the of the night of the seven kingdoms. The the cheese. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So so I started watching this in light game of thrones. Like kill the first few episodes. I'm like, you're wasting my time. Like, what are we doing here? This is the there's, I don't even know what we're building up to. There's not really a story here. And then they had a banger of an episode. I was like, this shows great. And then like, I just watched the finale last night. I'm like, this is over. This it's six episodes. And it only had one good episode. Receive how dare Kelly try to sneak a word on the day of the day on us. Yes. And prime time Leon Sanders. Yo, hey man. It's still really from the tragic news about Ben Wilson and his imminent demise. Wow. Thoughts and prayers to the kids. Shocked that Dave Ross or Maddie humans weren't able to knock some sense into him before he misplaced half of his polatialistic. Wow. Instead of graduating the guy for getting married. That is a happy dude. Talk to him. Yes. Very happy. He's got he's grinding for gigs.

18:11He's got all kinds of gigs and BATVs doing G league. Works his ass off. That's right. All right. Most pardon me. Most regular season home run out. One judge. Shohei plus three fifty four to one. No surprise. Mm hmm. No surprise. I sh air in judge. It makes sense in terms of so many things, including the ballpark in which he plays. Right. He has a lot to do with that ballpark factor. As the Shohei, the, you know, Dodger stadium. More balls launch out of that ballpark from ballpark factor standpoint than any. And Shohei has a lot to do with that. I understand. But it's beyond that. So those guys are the, are the rightful short shots. Do I love a bet here? I don't. If you're making me bet something, I would go once again to Nick Kurtz of the athletics at 10 to one. His home runs per at bat last year. He didn't have enough A Bs to qualify, but they would have been fifth best behind the four guys in front of them. Judge O'Connor, Schwerber and Raleigh in terms of A B, excuse me, home runs per

19:14A B. So if you're making me bet something here, it's Kurtz at 10 to one, but I don't like this category. I'm not betting anything just to be clear. If you made me it's Kurtz, if we go to RBI, though, I do actually have two bets. Most RBI's for the regular season. Now Kyle Schwerber ended up with the most RBI in baseball last year by, by a good amount out. Um, he still bats behind trade turner and Bryce Harper last time she's, and he's 35 to one. I have to consider that still. So I, okay, okay. And I was going to ask you about that with home runs, like it, did he just run two pure last year? He's Schwerber when he's hot. He's hot. Yeah. And it felt like he was hot for two and a half months, but I put 35 to one for RBI is interesting. I will tell you the, the RBI play I like even more, though, is Pete Alonzo at nine to one. So just behind judge and Guerrero or tied with Guerrero, I should say in this market at nine to one is Pete Alonzo of the Baltimore Orioles. Sorry, Metz fans. Alonzo is going to bat second in the Orioles lineup.

20:15Whether it's against righties or lefties, he'll bat, he'll slot into number two, at least to start the season behind Gunner Henderson and Gunner Henderson is going to get on base a whole bunch. I like that he's batting second here. If you go to steamer projections, only judge is projected to have more RBI than Alonzo and I think it's by like one or two RBI if I'm not mistaken. So Pete Alonzo at nine to one to me is a really good play in that ballpark in Baltimore. And he did finish second last year, they did finish second last year. So I, Pete Alonzo nine to one, Schorber 35 to one, I'd be interested in those two. Well, where you at over on the toes, Tim? Oh, I think it's about to back. I think most people feel that way. Yeah, Matt was in on over on their wind tunnel. I haven't written down on my list of bets to make. I grew up at O's fan. I love, I love Baltimore. I, I just, I don't know that I trust management enough to pull the, to push the right buttons down the stretch. Okay. Or the trade deadline. I, Rufus who all Rufus Peabody who's also a lifelong Orioles fans, again, Washingtonians

21:16who were too old for the center, too young for the senators, too old for the, for the nationals. We grew up as Orioles fans. He loves that. They like play for dynasty, like championships in the future. I'm like, no, when you have a chance, like they did two years ago, do some. Yeah. Stolen basis, the one, Stolen basis, I think is the one that I like the most of some season longs on offense. Um, Ellie Della Cruz of the reds should be the short shot. And he is three to one. But you know where I'm going with this? No, I don't. But from like years past, this feels more bunched up. It is bunched up. Uh, let's go. Like what were Ellie's odds last year beginning of the season? I don't know. Like, why am I thinking like plus one 50 or something like that before the season? I don't really remember. I did, he did lead the league in Stolen basis though, uh, I talk about major leagues now. Jacob Marcy of the Miami Marlins is nine to one. I know it's not the sexiest number in the world, but if I'm betting something, I think it's that Jacob Marcy of the Marlins at nine to one was called up late last year.

22:20He's going to lead off for the Marlins this year versus right handed batters probably be deeper in the line up versus lefties, but against righties, he'll lead off. In 11.7% walk rate last year, which is pretty darn good, um, not elite elite, but good enough when you're leading off, um, that's the guy I would put my money behind Jacob Marcy nine to one most stolen bases. Now, have I bet any of these I have not full disclosure, but those are just my initial thoughts. Home run is the toughest one because it's still, I mean, let's face it. It's still judging. No, Tony. Yeah, I think you, I think RBI, you can, you can get kind of frisky with Alonzo and Shorber for the reason. Say it. And I think Marcy for stolen bases. We'll do some of the pitching ones tomorrow on these. We got to get to the AFC season wind totals and Will Hill joins us. The power is back in Connecticut. At least that's what we're told all of his bets next on a numbers game. And Vista, the sports betting network, a numbers game live from circle, resort, casino,

23:30downtown Las Vegas, kill Alexander, my little buddy Kelly Bidlin has dropped over 100 LBs and counting disappearing before our very eyes. We get tweets me to book Larry fresh. You don't have to read this, but you have Greg's picks. I don't see them up on the site. I'll give them to you. Charlotte plus one and a half versus North Texas, Drake Valpo under 148 and a half. Cal plus two and a half versus SMU, Grant Canyon, might as seven and a half versus you and LV and Santa Clara St. Mary's under 152 and a half. Spence, cognizant real company bio. We come and tell companies what they are doing wrong and they pay us loads of money. Our solutions may or may not work, but who cares? We sponsor golf tournament. I swear, I swear to God, we, I love playing that bowl game sponsor game that we play because that, like that could just be copy and paste for five of the companies. So true. Buddhist man, the real question is, what is young Gracie think of your newfound Jonas Brothers fandom? If she's completely cringing about it, then you're not too late to the party. They're still relevant. If she couldn't care less, then they're already yesterday's news. That is so true. I will text her now and I'm, I'm scared to know what I'm going to get back from her.

24:33And Billy Charlebois, I'm the same age and listen to the same music as Gil. So I ran to my phone to play the Jonas Brothers. I didn't see that happening this morning. I need to regroup. Billy don't watch Landman calling it awful is too much of a compliment. Wow. Oh, wow. That's the first time I've heard of that. Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, this guy has endured. It feels like 75 snowstorms in the last month. He lost his power. He has 75 kids. That's not good when you lose your power. And he has a new dog, a new puppy. It's will hill everybody courtesy of progressive guest line. He is the host of the should a bit more podcast will you okay? You got power back? Yeah, all is well. The puppy is a welcome new addition. The poor guy cannot get any sleep because he's just being carried around and passed around from child to child. Well, they will not put him down. So when he finally gets the rest of his head, man, he is he is out like a light beat. That's been great. What a cute dog. I mean, puppies are awesome. You know how the sense though, right? Well, like this is like you end up taking care of the dog the entire time. Right. Okay.

25:34Yeah. I'm like, what's the timeframe where the kids are like, alright, whatever. Was it a week? A month. What is it? I was one of those kids. Any family that's ever had a dog. That's what happens. It's a beautiful dog. May it bring you joy? Do you want to say the name of the dog? Do you want to say that? Well, Charlie. Charlie. Charlie is zero say and naming it, but Charlie is what they came up with and Charlie is what it is. Okay. Kids legitimately named it or did the wife say here's what we're naming the kid? What how did it go? Yeah. That's a great question. I think the kids legitimately named it, but you know how it goes. Yeah, I do. Okay. I don't know if it may be my finger. Yeah. They all know Charlie, but my finger or the old old YouTube classic. Yeah. Charlie bit my finger. Alright. I was just doing some season long MLB stuff. You have a play on the Save's leader. I'm curious where you're going with this. Yeah. I like Hellsley of the Orioles that he was terrible for the Mets. In a limited action there after coming over from the Cardinals. But he's done this before he led the way he can save a couple years ago. He was dominant with the Cardinals in the few years before that and before he struggled

26:37with the meds. And I have talked about this on other shows and on your show, I think a few weeks ago, I'm really high on Baltimore. I think they bounce back. And that ties into the saves leader because, you know, the saves leaders not coming from the Colorado Rockies more likely than not. You got to win a lot of games to have the saves leader you would think. And I think with a full year of Trevor Rogers, they unlocked something with him. I don't know that'll have the one eight ERA had last year, but even, you know, 70, 80% of that is still really good. Shane Baz coming over from Tampa who was once a highly touted prospect. You get him away from that minor league ballpark. I think he will flourish. And Kyle Bradish is getting, you know, Sai Young buzz. He pitched really well, you know, his time in the majors. He's an arm. A lot of people are high on me. He got bass it. Who's kind of an innings eater as the four. And remember a few years ago, everyone knew the Orioles were going to be good eventually. And it came quickly. They won 101 in 2023. And then 92 in 24. And then last year, everything just fell apart. You know, injuries. The whole pitching staff got hurt. The hitters regressed, but those guys are a year older now. Sometimes, you know, you take a step back before you take a step forward. You had Peter Lonzo, you had Taylor Ward. I think they're going

27:41to win a lot of games. So I like them plus four 75 if I'd wanted that range to win a division. And I think a flyer and Hellsley at 30 to one does make some sense for most saves. You know, the only thing that bothers me about the O's, the birds will is that everybody loves them. Everybody loves them. I know. I know. Yeah. I will have my saves leader play tomorrow on the show. You can probably guess who I'm going to, I'm going to bet on. It's not, it's going to be pretty obvious, but it's not Hellsley. Okay. Rocky's closure. No. No. By the way, can you, can you name who the Rocky's course? Yeah. Okay. Then I like this kind of bet. Worst record. Who you got? I'm going to go Washington at four to one. Colorado's minus 400. I can't remember ever seeing for this kind of market. A team that's such a decided favorite for worse record. Usually, you know, maybe even money or so. I just, man, minus 400 is crazy. And they're the justified short shot. I just think they will be, man, I hesitate to use the word better because better based on what they were last year is, it's not a high, high bar to clear, but you've got some major leaders.

28:46Now they brought in Kintana, you know, felt there's not bad. Maybe they're okay enough where they get to like, man, 55, 60 wins. I like Washington at four to one, just because I think the rest of that division is so good. The meds still have a really good team. They pivoted nicely after losing a Lonzo, I thought, and you know, you're bringing, but shit, you're bringing Freddie Proctor, they're still going to be really good. The Phillies, some question marks about their age, but that's still, you know, 85 to 90 win team, you would think. And the Braves, I would think bounce back, same sort of thing with Philly, where you'd think they're above 500. And I like Miami. I think their bats are kind of underrated and they could always develop pitching. If I'll contract, had not been awful last year, you know, they would have been a borderline playoff team. And Washington is now just in, I would say the rebuild, but the rebuild of the rebuild, where they trade off Mackenzie Gore, which, you know, from all reports, they got a decent return back, a decent package. But there's just not a lot there. You look at the rotation, Kate Cavali, I guess they need to be the number one miles, Michael is Brad Lord. Oh, Washington could be really, really bad.

29:47That ballpark is going to be empty. And I just think taking a shot at them four to one, it's not bad. I had the bear Chris fleek on, yeah, should a bit more podcast on Monday. He suggested Minnesota at 35 to one, which I don't think is awful. The more I looked at it, Pablo Lopez out for the year, you know, maybe they trade pieces. If Joe Ryan ever went down there, pitching can be back. I don't know if they can be bad enough to get to this number, but at 35 to one, that's not a bad one either. But I did land on on Washington at four to one. I always think about the, by the way, who's your guest on should a bit more? Who is it? Chris Philly, who's it? The bear Chris is Felica. You should get on. He's great. I'm unfamiliar with his work. The thing about like a fan base like the Washington nationals. I don't know why this popped in my head. But I think about, you know, they had, they, they want a world series in just over a decade, right? And I just think about, you know, how big is gold night's fan base is the greatest example of this, right? They get to the Stanley Cup final the first year. And when they lose like the caps, you know, 44 years of trying and like the gold night's fans had this like berth right about it. Like it meant more to them than it did to caps fans. I think about fan bases like that. I'm just like

30:49the nationals fan bases. How is this happening to us? Are glorified, but, you know, past, this is just, it's not our brand. It's like, no, this is how you should suffer. This is how, this how sports usually works. Not that you should, but this is how normal normally go. Amazing. That title seven years ago, by the way, I know I always say that stuff, but the fact that that seven years ago is just it's kind of hard to comprehend. The last of the Giants championships is more than a decade ago. And I have much difficulty wrapping my head around that. Let's go to college basketball. We got a couple of good games tonight. Let's start with Florida at Texas Gators. They fit the formula six and a half point favorites at Texas tonight. What do you got? I like Texas plus six and a half. I don't love fading this Florida team. I think if you asked a lot of people right now, hey, value wise, if you had to make one bet for college hoops, to what it all, you would get a lot of Florida answers because they're big. They're well coached and their guards are starting to shoot the three well and that was their bugaboo. But over the last month or so, shooting 37% from three, which is why they're just dominating everyone. I think there

31:50could be a little regression coming with that because I think the season long sample may be a little more representative. And Texas does have the bigs, I think, to at least control Florida somewhat make them shooters and just hang in the paint. And that's the key with Florida. Hang in the paint. Don't let them get a million second chance opportunities and just kill you on the glass. Plus Texas at home, getting points. They are a bubble team. I think when already they'd and like the fourth or fifth last team. And by the way, what a weak bubble. You look at some of these teams. Ohio State in the end of lost to Northwestern got killed by Illinois. They're still in the mix. Santa Clara. It's a really, really, I would say weak bubble this year. I'm not sure how many upsets were getting in college hoops. We've talked about that in the past couple weeks. I think it could be a really chalk heavy tournament once again here. But I do like Florida getting the six and a half here. And I'm taking St. John's plus five and a half. I just think Yukon, you know, keep waiting for them to fire. But they just, man, they're just a little overvalued night to night. And again, you might be walking into a buzzsaw because this is like triple revenge because St. John's beat him twice last year. And then a few weeks ago on a Friday night. But you look at that game.

32:53St. John's five of 19 from three Yukon shot 50% from three. And St. John's still won the game. So I'm going to take the five and a half with St. John's, even though not a great spot for for St. John's considering the revenge factor. This game is being played at Hartford off campus, which I find interesting. But I'm a couple of dogs for me like St. John's in Florida and Texas. Sorry. Yeah. Good first one had such a great atmosphere at MSG. Expect the same tonight. Though, as you say, albeit off campus for this one between Yukon and St. John's, you consider Yukon a national title contender right now in the in the short group. It's just dismissive of early and everything they've done. Sometimes when they get out of conference to say no, it doesn't feel like watching them every night that they are. I'd say yes, but I feel like they're getting the benefit of the doubt a little bit. Interesting. Well, at least we'll know he won't be Michigan if things go wrong in any circumstances. He's he's very level headed guy standing early. We'll thank him. He'll be a fun game to ref tonight with Batino and Hurley. You'd you'd have to pay me a lot of money to it. It's a referee game.

33:54It's just constant abuse. May the snow melt, man. And congratulations on the dog again. Thank you, Will. All right. Appreciate it, guys. Good to see you. Thanks. Will Hill, everybody had not the Will Hill on Twitter should have bet more is the name of his podcast, Chris Felica. Is his latest guest on that? Let's do the AFC season windtownals. I got a bunch. Next on a numbers game right here at Visa. Number of games on Visa. These scores, Betty Network. Number of games, circle, resort, casino, downtown Las Vegas. We're Kelly and I do our thing every day. 7 to 10 Pacific. 10 to 1 Easter preceded by by the books with Jensen Lewis and Dave Ross. Jensen played the game. Dave not. Right. But Dave's Captain America followed by prop points with Jeff Erickson and Nick Whalen. And it's stormy and JVT with

34:54money moves, Mitch and Paul with follow the money. That's what we do every day here, Vincent. I told Dave this to his face. So I'm fine saying it on air. But every once in a while, I got to do the old mute button with Dave Ross on Twitter. Yeah, there's not many people that I mute, but hey, you can't see. There's just a storm of tweets sometimes. So I'm trying to get NBA news or something and it is. Kids got opinions. It's a lot. He's been hasn't he been official Twitter of Kentucky hasn't he been relieved of his Twitter duties. I think you got digged by the PGA tour like I did. That's right. He did PGA stuff. Tim PGA tour tried to shut down my Instagram account once and I was like I didn't even share any highlights already. It was like my own golf video. Tim Bowers. Thanks to a numbers game tangents and the reference to the YouTube video Charlie bit my finger. Now I'm also going to have to watch the Charlie the unicorn video. I don't know. What is your what is your all time favorite classic YouTube video? I can absolutely answer mine quickly. I can't, but I mean, Charlie bit my

35:54fingers out there. My little kids hilarious. You ever see the redhead kid who was being interviewed and he was like apparently he was like speaking like his grandfather. He apparently his grandfather raises him. Apparently, this is the first time I've ever been on live TV. He's like six. Fantastic. I don't think I have. Oh, he's fantastic. It was back in the day. You've got to be like a he's going to be like college age now though. That guy. All right. AFC conference, the AFC season wind totals for AFC teams. Now I got a bunch of these I like. I was kind of lukewarm on the NFC one here at church. What now I'm just thinking about YouTube videos. Sorry. I'm like trying to let him power it be YouTube videos. Right. AFC with totals. My sincerest apologies. He's still haven't gone down to the Jonas Brothers. I pulled that up. I pulled up a waffle house last break. I don't think you really listen to it. No, I got like 50 will hill rudely interrupted me. Rude. All right. This will be no surprise. Well, you know where I'm starting, right? You can just guess this is no. No, I don't know that I do. Let's see. The chargers over. It rhymes

36:57with ray triads. Patriots under. Patriots under nine and a half. They have the sixth hardest schedule by a potent winning percentage this year. Again, this is what happens when you end up first place, right? They go from the third easiest schedule per DVOA since 1978 to the sixth hardest schedule in the league next year. I don't see them winning 10. I don't. It's you you do have Miami and the jets, right? You do get those games, but your other home besides Buffalo is Denver, Green Bay. There's some wins. Vegas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh. Theaways are Buffalo Miami jets. Chicago Detroit, Jacksonville, Kansas City, the Rams and the Seahawks. Oh, brutal. Yeah, you're you're brutal. Your AFC East teams get the AFC West and NFC North this year. The other the other obvious under I'm going to say is the Broncos. Under nine and a half. Their schedule is kind of middling, but again, the away games, right?

38:01Besides, I mean, they're already in a tough division. Kansas City, the chargers, they do have the Vegas, of course. They'll have New England on the road. They'll have San Francisco on the road. They have Pittsburgh on the road. Home, they got to play the Rams and the Seahawks. Remember, they won a lot of their games last year by one or two or three points against really bad teams. So I do think regression is coming for both the Patriots and the Broncos. Those aren't very hard to predict. The ones that might be a little more are, but maybe not even on these. I'm going down to the bottom. You alluded to one of these yesterday, Kelly. The Browns under. Yes. The Browns under. The Browns are six and a half. How they win in seven. I don't know. You know what? If you win seven, tip of the cap, this is one. So like, like I brought up earlier, girl, this is one I would, and actually I might, because I think Danny told me MGM has these up now too. I think I'd bet a little bit of this now then let the off-season play out and see what they do. But like right now, it's like, they have like one offensive line

39:02and like under contract. I should do our Sanders. Like what's the plan here? We're going to six and a half, the six and a half, the counter argument to the Browns under is, well, but they have the easiest schedule based on opponent win percentage for 29. But my counter to the counter is this, Kelly. Not all, you can't really analyze a schedule period these days, right? But even if you tried to, one of the problems with that, with that analysis of 429, easiest schedule, 429 aggregate win percentage of your opponents is the fact that the way it breaks down, the easy opponents are on the road by and large. So New Orleans, the Giants, the Jets, the Titans, you can't really chalk them up as wins that easily because they're all on the road. So it, it, yes, but no, it's a real soft set of opponents. You're doing a great job arguing both sides. It's the Cleveland Browns

40:02at a six and a half win tone. Yep. It's the most brain dead one. You go seven and ten. Bravo. Right. Yeah. I'll be okay. Loose on that. How about the Raiders under? That's my other one. Dude, I wrote it down to Raiders under five and a half. I mean, that division's brutal. It's brutal. You get, you got six games against Denver Kansas City and the Chargers. Let's say you somehow win two of them. And I'm being generous. You still got Buffalo and the Rams and Seattle at home, in addition to Miami and Tennessee. And you still have New England and Sanford Cisco on the road. In addition to Arizona, Cleveland and New Orleans and the Jets, so there are games you can win. But you still got to go six and 11. Yeah. Again, tip of the cap Raiders if you can win six. And I love Fernando Mendoza. But I'm very okay to fade both the Browns and the Raiders. In either conference, if I had to make a bet right now today, it would be the Browns under.

41:03Just to clarify that would be the first one that I would go make. Okay, I'm going to I dropped the ball with the Patriots before I'm sorry. What else does Kelly Bidlin have written down on his AFC win tonal skill under Patriots? No, over Patriots. No, no, no, no, same division though. Oh, over bills. Kelly Bidlin every year over bills. Probably not going to bet this record. Best record bills. Josh Allen MVP. What else? These will be the bets that I will have probably not over 10 and a half at minus 140. I will be betting everything that guilt just named. Yes, absolutely. So I just want to bring them up. I have the other team though that I think I will end up on an overwind total bet in this conference that I am shocked how much of an impression they left on me at the end of last season. They'll flat a little bit in the playoffs, but playing very, very, very, very good quarterback. Jacksonville Jaguars nine and a half. I still don't have much respect for the rest of this division.

42:04I think that I brought up yesterday. I mean, certainly here's some of that Titans love again. Matt, Matt was on that side last week. It brought up a little bit about that about the Titans. The Colts coming off last year. Injuries, all that stuff. I think there's question marks. The Texans. The Texans are still just, I mean, look, I bet the Texans to win that division. I think three years in a row. What is this team? There's so many of these teams that don't change, right? The defense is awesome. Do you have any more trust in that CJ Stroud in this office? I could say massively. How do we feel about CJ Stroud at this time? I mean, like they're like nine and a half. Yes. Yes. Right. Because they're going to be eight, nine or 10 wins. That's how many wins the Houston, Texans are good a half. If I could bet a bet like one of those bands, I might actually do that this year. But like the Jags, I think the Jags guy, that offense defense when they've put together there, I think there's an opportunity for them to be a special team in the AFC next year. There's a lot of these though that you, you know, Bengals nine and a half. I have no idea. Yeah. No idea. Colts eight and a half. I think it's like, isn't the Texans the perfect one?

43:06You're just flipping a coin around that. There's a lot of those are that have the Titans become the team, by the way, Steelers eight and a half. Just in case anybody was wondering if it's a Mike Tomlin less streak that will continue, right? Remember, we asked that question. Is this, is it, are we going to, are we going to hear about it this summer? Just reword it as like the Steelers have never had a losing record in this many years. The Steelers don't get to at least a 500 record. Then it's clearly Mike Tomlin's the guy getting, but maybe, um, you have no idea the Titans are the Titans. The team that NFL handycappers like to sound smart with. I don't know. Year after year after year after year after year after year after year. Oh, well, you're probably going back. Yeah. Of like, if I just did the average over the past like seven years, they're guys, guys, we respect them. I'm not trying to, I'm not trying to throw shade. Guys, we respect to who really like to, right? Well, it's three multiple guys, right? And

44:08it's, and everyone who wants to make them a thing. And I'm just, I'm not there. Because what, I mean, those beginning for able to years, right? That was, that was the popular one. You're right. They don't popular there. I don't think we know what Cam Ward is. No, not at all. Not at all. You know, so the other one, the other one I'll bring up like, if I had to make a bet right now, the cheese. I mean, we're, what's, we don't know what the Patrick Mahomes timeline is that exactly like 10 and a half is aggressive on them. If I had to make a bet, it'd be on the under right now, for sure. All 10 and a half, nobody lined higher than 10 and a half across the league. But the Ravens and the Bills are the ones most heavily juiced to the over. I have heard a lot of this chargers love picking up kill. And it's fine. I could be against them. But just let's get to the play off. Well, it's the old. They're getting Slater and all back, right? What you got, Herbert? They still wear those same uniforms, right? What you got, Herbert? You're already starting on them. Okay. Nick Whalent on the NBA next, on a numbers game at least in these sports betting network.