A Numbers Game | February 18, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00And numbers close to the story now. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander gone. He said. The number came here on the sport's betting network. Matt Brown Kelly, Biblical, and as we watch Canada put one into the goal and eat into our our lead tied up now two to two. Yeah, and Canada moves to a minus six 20 live favorite. Seven and a half still your live total, the under minus 180. Those of you that were not with us, just joining us here now. Number three, we have we have cheque of bets in. We do. Because for no other reason than we were told to. All right. Well, yeah, but we're not big hockey also very. We're not we're not big Olympic hockey handicaps. As Nick Whalen, who joins us now, Nick, a great to have you in town. I know you've been doing prop points over at the D. That's great. Great to have you and chef back on prop points, but we catch in the hook, Matt. It was three and a half and we know. Is NFL and NBA better? So you always got to get that hook.

1:00So yeah, three and a half, man. Welcome to Vegas, man. It's always great to have you here. Yeah, I appreciate you guys have me in studio out here for, of course, the FSGA conference, taking over circa this week. I will say a little bit disappointing that it was somehow warmer in Wisconsin, where I'm going to say welcome to. Welcome to freezing cold windy and now snowy lost Vegas. Well, look, nothing stops me from playing golf. And I'm out here. We still got out there on Monday. I have never in my life experience conditions like that. I don't know what the max wind was on Monday, but unbelievable. The show must go on. We cannot go off in Wisconsin. We're probably another month or two away from that. But always going to be out here with you guys. Yes, so we're going to kick things off here. We were going to start with the NBA, but we ended last segment talking about just some of these ridiculous futures bets. And I, you know, I'm, I am hot on the Jags. And I think I've bought in on the Bears as well. Like I think as far as like being complete teams. And if you look at the off season can kind of just be. More like luxury picks for a lot of these teams. I mean, sure, there's a couple of things that need to be addressed.

2:00But outside of that, I mean, I think you can kind of go in and add depth and do this. One hundred and six. Can I talk you into? One hundred and sixty to one. Jags and they only have to meet in the Super Bowl. That's it. No one, neither it doesn't matter who wins. One hundred and sixty to one. A Jags Bears Super Bowl. Like you could talk me into the Jags playing anybody. You could, you could talk me into, I don't even know. I mean, Jags and. Commanders, Jags giants. Whoever you want to throw out there. Yeah. No, I think I think the path for Jacksonville is realistic. You know, I think they faced about an average schedule last year. The schedule stacks up a little bit tougher playing the first place. Schedule in twenty twenty six. But you know, we were talking about this on our show yesterday. Houston is still a slight favorite to win the AFC South. And look, I know we talk about defenses. Maybe not translating you over here. I think the Houston Texas defense is here to stay. I think we can say that. I'm not really concerned about that transferring over. But I think there's a lot more upside with Jacksonville next season in that division. Specifically, then there is Houston. You know, you just look at the way Trevor Lawrence ended the season.

3:01It wasn't pretty in the Buffalo game. That was more old Trevor Lawrence than it was new Trevor Lawrence. But I don't know how you can have any level of confidence in CJ Stroud to begin this season if you're Houston. And you know, Jacksonville doesn't have a first round pick because of the Travis Hunter tray. That limits a little bit as far as what they can do adding young talent. They have a decision to make on Travis ETN. But I just love the direction that this offense is trending. I think they have a chance to be one of the deepest wide receiving rooms in the NFL next season. And we talk a lot about the progression of Trevor Lawrence. We talk a lot about Liam Cohen and the difference he's made. But the step that that defense took last season as well. I mean, this was a bottom three defense two years ago. And I think most of those pieces should be back. So selling me on Jacksonville, you guys can always do that. Chicago to me. That's that's a little bit of a tougher one. And you know, that was a number that jumped out in the divisional odds as well. Plus three 50 to win the NFC North, but we have Detroit as a sizable favorite over Green Bay as well. Yeah. I was actually just pleased with the news that we got out of Jacksonville that they're going to move Travis Hunter to the more full time corner back for all I mean. Yes.

4:01You know, when you have the success that you got out of the trade with Jacobi Myers. And then as long as you can get Brian Thomas Jr. back on track and with Parker Washington. Why wouldn't you, if you think he's a lockdown corner, which you had to have to take anywhere you did in the draft. Why wouldn't you go have him be that lockdown corner when you have that wide receiver room? Right. Well, the emergence of Parker Washington, I think makes that decision easier, right? Like if Parker Washington is still toiling away as this borderline wide receiver three wide receiver four type of guy. All of a sudden you feel like you have that need. And I think clearly they have faith in Washington. Clearly they love Jacobi Myers. They signed him to an extension after like six games in a Jags uniform. I think Brian Thomas, of course, is the skeleton key here. Can you get him back to even 80% of what he was as a rookie? If so, that's a really high level kind of one B alongside Jacobi Myers. And who knows, maybe they'll explore the trade market with Brian Thomas. I'm trying to capitalize on that this summer, which I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to. But you're right. I did not like the Travis Hunter pick at the time. I felt like they were going to have to jump through some hoops to try to justify what they gave up. It never really seemed feasible that he was going to play at that level on both sides of the ball in the NFL.

5:05And unfortunately the injury I think is ultimately going to dictate, you know, what happens with him. And they've been more defensively right now. Well, I think you can say what I believe is he has to where he has to focus on one one side of the ball here. And then I don't think it's, I don't think it's out of the possibility that, you know, years down the line. We're talking about, you know, a couple of years a year later, two years later that he's, they're working him in more at wider receiver. I was looking Jacksonville finding success last year allows them to do this a little bit easier. Right. If they were a four win team and you're still trying to sell the fan base on this two way star, you're probably feeling more pressure to do this. I think you can shift now and kind of concentrate more on that side. Yeah, it's Jacksonville, man. I am more confident in them than I have been in a long time. What, what a switch over to the NBA with you. We did just have a couple news items come down about some key players here for the season. Franz Wagner to miss at least three more weeks for the Orlando magic. There is Garland will meet list miss at least two games coming out of the all star break.

6:06Garland and the clippers met where they are with they are. We can talk about that later. Franz though in this Orlando magic team. I met massive disappointments already this season. This magic team has been very injured though. How do you view this team going forward? Do they end up in the play and they end up in the playoffs out of the plate? Look guys, I threw in a magic to miss the playoffs play on our show earlier this week. And you know, you look at where they rank right now. They're seventh in the Eastern conference. But Philly, Miami, Orlando, Charlotte, all these teams are significant minus money to make the playoffs right now. Like the math isn't math as far as how many of those teams can end up in the field. And look, we share an affinity for the Charlotte Hornets. I don't think that's a team Orlando wants to see in a one and done play in type of matchup. And I think the number one important thing for the magic to try to get this thing on the rails the rest of the way. What's to have a healthy Franz Wagner. And now we're ruling them out for at least a month. So in a best case scenario, he's back for what the last 15 games of the season.

7:06How many of those games is he truly healthy for? There's a ramp up period there. This just has felt like a Orlando season that went off the rails two or three weeks in. And there's been signs here and there of you on the win two or three in a row. And you think maybe they're back. It's just not coalescing at all. And you know, this idea that. Desmond Bain alone bringing him in would just make us a confident three point shooting team. It hasn't happened. There's still the worst three point shooting team in the NBA, both the terms of volume and efficiency. They're way down there with, you know, teams that are nowhere near the playoff race. So I, you know, we think of the all start break as kind of being the halfway point. It's really a lot closer to the two thirds mark in the NBA. And I don't think there's enough time for Orlando to get this thing to where it needs to be. And you know, the leap that Anthony Black has made this season. They the big swing to trade for Desmond Bain for both of those things to happen. And this team to be essentially worse than it was last year still scuffling around in the play and zone. I think they're the biggest disappointment in the NBA. Talking to Nick Whalen over roto wire and joining us here on the desk in Las Vegas. Nick, we had two different preseason futures.

8:06I want to talk about and say you still feel about them spurs to win the Southwest and the nuggets to win the NBA championship. How do you feel about both of those sitting here as we entered the stretch? I feel good about the spurs one, you know, and coming into the season to me. That was, that was just a, a play on San Antonio versus Houston. And I thought at plus 450, that didn't really match up with how I handicapped that. You know, I didn't really think Memphis or Dallas would be a player in that division. And, you know, I mean, the Grizzlies once again, their season has just kind of gone down the drain, doing part to injuries and whatnot. But I thought it was a two team race. And I thought there was a pretty reasonable chance that if Victor Webinyama stayed even relatively healthy, which has been the case so far, that this first team could arrive maybe a year earlier than we expected. So feel good about that one the rest of the way. I mean, Houston, I made that play even before or after it sees me Fred Bambley got hurt. I just didn't love the price on that. If you were, if you were investing in the Houston Rockets, there's not a lot of depth on that team right now. They still have not really figured out the point guard situation. You know, you'll have a few games in a row where Reach Shepherd looks great.

9:07And then you may, you don't go play them 17 minutes the next night inexplicably. So I think San Antonio to me has more top end talent on that roster. And they've grown into one of the deeper teams in the Western Conference. Some of that secondary talent on that roster that they've been able to develop throughout this season. You know, I think it's kind of made them even more formidable as we get deeper into the year. And then Denver, you know, that was one that you're just looking for a way to to kind of play anybody other than OKC. Yeah. Right. You're like, all right, I don't really want to lay minus 130 on a preseason NBA title favorites. And look, you know, Denver, with all the injuries they've had, it's been kind of a weird regular season. They played only a handful of games with all their guys. I am of the belief that the Yokech injury is going to benefit the Denver Nuggets in the long term. You know, I think what that allowed Peyton Watson specifically to do to step up in Yokech's absence. You know, we might not see a fully formed version of the Nuggets until the final five or 10 games of the year. When Aaron Gordon is back in the mix, but this is a team that of course has been through it before. They've won with this group, you know, made a deep playoff run last year. So I still feel pretty good about Denver in pocket at six to one.

10:08Yeah, this is if you're watching at home, a list of the NBA futures. I don't know if there's everything you had. Nick, I know these are ones you gave out on a numbers came though. And they lay this portfolio is looking better than mine right now. I can tell you that much. Spurs the way the division that look good. Yeah. And then the wind tunnels right hornets. That's already home. OK, pistons. That one's about to be home here in a couple weeks. Warriors on track. Heat on track. So all those looking good Nuggets. I think our perfect example, because this is we had this conversation preseason. I even remember having this conversation with you about this team. We were both looking to jump in and play Denver this year in these in these futures markets to win the West to win the NBA finals. Matt, we talk about this often with the Scotty Shuffle. This is this is the perfect example of Nick making this bet preseason. And me sitting here saying, I'm a way to Lynn season. We usually get you know, bumps in the roads. Things happen. I can get a little bit better number. They're not many points during the season where that's truly played out. So yeah, I've kind of sat on the sidelines waiting to play the Nuggets still doing that.

11:12Problem is with their injuries. I'm still waiting waiting for Aaron Gordon and Watson to get back in the lineup. And then I think I'll get vested. But that's a good bet. A good number to have that you got preseason. So like all those will we'll be talking some more in being. Yeah, we're going to keep you for another one. We're before you will let you walk down the street. We're going to keep you here for another segment. We'll get into some other thoughts at some other games that were some other bats. I should say that were made in season here. And then apparently some other interesting NFL news coming out that we can. We can all just kind of banter of about here. It's a numbers game will be. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools. The data and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro.

12:27Numbers game on. These sports betting network. Numbers game here on these sports betting network to to Canada and check you heading into the third color. We need to dodge a four goal third period by Canada. They can win by three. I was about to say I think we're good. But yeah, I wouldn't I know. Let's see. Minus five eighty. Minus five eighty on the money line live. Check you up plus three eighty six and a half your live total. This would be the perfect time to implement the go and find the fattest guy and all of Chechia. And put a suit to man and lay him down in front of the goal and then just don't allow goals. They got a starting NHL goal tenders. That's true. The one the literally the one thing I know about this team. It's not Italy. Italy does not have a starting in NHL goal tenders. So we do know that we were all along here with Nickway and Roto wire. In studio. We're here with us in Las Vegas. So we're where where did you go golfing? It's Sally mountain. Okay. Guys, which you know, I have kind of a life goal to play every course in Vegas.

13:30This was my 17th different course that I played out here. Wow. You know, it was it was it was fine. It was serviceable. Yeah. It was serviceable. You know, I haven't been out to pot you a couple of times. Not not quite the same level of conditions. But again, never get a complain about getting out there in February. Yeah, next time you next time your town hit me up. We'll go. Absolutely. We'll go ahead. We'll go ahead something up. We'll find a fun place. I had thought before the last time you were here. I was like, Nick is really getting around to a lot of golf courses. Yeah. When did the try to play as many in Vegas as possible start? Probably five or six years ago. You know, I'm out here three or four times a year for work. I do an annual trip with my buddies out here that is really just evolved into a golf trip. Yeah. So yeah, we're, you know, high volume approach when we get out here and always trying to find a way to make it work. What kind of what kind of golf are you there? I mean, I got down to an eight at the end of last year. So, you know, we're approaching, we're approaching respectability. Yeah, no, you're right. No, that's. You're. You're. You're approaching stick level. Yeah. I mean, you're in Wisconsin. That is a. I did the Wisconsin trip two summers ago. Oh, yeah.

14:30That is the. Unbelievable. I mean, I would do it again. I do the whole golf trip to every summer deal and that's one of the places I would go back to. Even though I'm trying to hit all these other new courses and stuff, I would go back and deal. We started it saying Valley and then made the whole trip down Aaron Hills and back up all the way out to whistling straights and all this course. So I was there for nearly two weeks. Well, 10 days. Wisconsin beautiful in the summertime. It was. It was. It was humid. It was humid, but it was, but it was great. Yeah. You know, you've been. What have you been there for? Oh, Wisconsin. I've had some family that's lived up there. I'm thinking about a beautiful work trip. I took up there about two really a work retreat to Lake Geneva. We had a blast, man. It's a great golf lecture. Yeah. All right. Good job, Dr. Moran. That's reference there. All right. I remember doing a, a late local news. And then catching a, well, I guess it wouldn't be a red eye from Florida, but whatever was in the middle of the night flight. Really early morning up to Wisconsin and playing golf and having way too many drinks on about one hour of sleep in a flight.

15:31That was fun. Before we get to next in season plays here and talk those through against some news coming through here. The leaders have floated. We, we giggle to offer them two first round picks and a premium player in exchange for Max Crosby. I mean, he's 28 guys. I mean, I mean, he's still in his prime. I get it. But it's not like we're talking like a 25 year old or something is 28 year old. They want two firsts and a premium player. I will go and record. They are not going to get that. Yeah. I don't think so either. Yeah. I mean, I want to see Max Crosby play somewhere else because he's in his prime and this team's not going to win anytime soon. But like, if this is what they are honestly wanting, then he's just going to be in a Raiders uniform. I mean, we see teams do this every off season, right? Like you, you set the bar probably knowing that you're not going to get that, but knowing that maybe you can get 70 to 80% of that. And it is worth noting that Max Crosby does have, you know, by disgruntled superstar standards, a pretty tradable contract.

16:34You know, we're looking at, I think roughly $5 million in dead money, you know, it's not the Miles Garrett. You're inheriting $40 million is going to crush you against the cap for two or three years. So I think that is part of the equation. But the premium player part of it, that's what you almost never see, right? I don't doubt that they could get multiple first round picks. There are teams that certainly want to acquire Max Crosby in the heart of his prime. But you don't often get the premium player attached to that. And I don't know if he's quite Michael Parsons level where obviously they sent the picks. And then you send somebody like Kenny Clark. Do you consider him a premium player? Because maybe you can get somebody on that level. But you're not, you're not going to get one of the 30 best guys in the league. I was just going to say you and I do a lot of the NBA. Nick, we know what a premium player means in the NBA. What does that mean in the NFL? Yeah. That's true. That's true. Yeah. I mean, that can be anything. Really? No, no. I got to say wide range of what we would consider that kind of player. Obviously, they need a wide receiver pretty badly. Consider and you're going to go draft for an in him and dose it. It feels to me like they would be the Tyree Kale team. Like he is just the most obvious Las Vegas Raiders failed signing all the time to think that this

17:38or the new organization. I would like to think that as well. But of young dudes don't want to go get a wide receiver. This their same age that's coming off of a major leg injury. I'd like to think that. I just think, uh, hey, Crosby, whatever you can get for Crosby, the Raiders have enough. The whole they need to fill all over that roster. And have you looked at the division any types? Like this is, I don't want to call. No, he is. Max Crosby is a luxury item for the Raiders right now, right? Like it's, it's, it's just doesn't do anything for what you're going, what you're trying to be not only this year, but then more importantly, what you're trying to be five years from now. He doesn't help that. Okay. Let's get into some of these bets that you made in season here, Nick. And I will just gravitate here to the cabs because. Kelly and I have a lot of love for the cabs here and have made some bets here recently on the cabs. And now that they acquire James Harden has, is this where these made after the, before this after this one with these made these were made after the, the hard acquisition. So I mean, the one that I like most is just the in season wind total, the over 52 and a half. Uh, this is a team coming out of the break.

18:39They're currently out of 51 win pace. So they need to go 19 and eight the rest of the way. They have one of the five easiest remaining schedules in the NBA. They've already played pretty much all of the, the power teams in the Western conference. And look, I, I think we can, we can debate the merits of bringing in James Harden for a playoff series. But the, the one thing that you can bank on with James Harden throughout his career for 15 years at this point is that he makes you an excellent regular season T. He's probably going to lock you in as a top three to seven offense in the NBA, the rest of the way. He is 10 years older than Darius Garland. We can debate from an asset management standpoint, if that made sense for Cleveland, but he's a better player right now than Darius Garland. He is healthier than Darius Garland. He's, he plays right for as much as we, we like to, to kind of ask James Harden for, you know, all kinds of things throughout his career. The guy plays games. He almost never misses more than eight or nine games in a year. And I think that is something that Cleveland was really concerned about with Darius Garland. And we, like you mentioned in the last segment, we're coming out of the all-star break. It's still unknown when he's going to be back on the chords for the LA Clippers. And even before Cleveland brought in James Harden guys,

19:41we, we started to see the team coalesce because for a while, it was, you know, one step forward, one step back, you know, they're basically playing 500 basketball. They're 17 and five since Christmas. And so, you know, the, you know, the Harden deal is the headliner here. That's what's going to what really propelled them down the stretch. But in addition to that, I like the move that they made, you know, the week earlier. Getting Deandre Hunter out of the building. He was shooting 30% from three. That had clearly kind of worn out its welcome. And then bringing in two guys who can be in your playoff rotation. And Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroeder. I think they're the deepest team in the East right now. And they should get Max Bruce back at some point. Yeah, this is, I still have my concerns with this team of, to, to both the bigs work, right? I think that is still a fair question. However, I think that's another positive of bringing in James Harden. I think James Harden should make a, he has a track record of making every big, that he plays with better offensively. The numbers for Jared Allen have been incredible. I mean, we're looking at like what three games with James Harden and two of those have come against Sacramento and Washington. So, you know, take it with the block assault. I think he's going to unlock Jared Allen in a way that Derrius Garland would not have.

20:42Yeah, and I do want to see something you said there too, because I think it's really important. The difference between regular season NBA betting and playoff betting, right? The, the floor that you can raise for your success in the regular season when you compare it together to stars, like Don of the Mitchell and James Harden, just where, where, amount of wins that you're going to just, just chance into because of the talent of those two players. And the fact that you can have one of the two on the court all the time, just raises that floor so much. It's, I'm not a Lakers guy. I'm not a Lakers guy with this roster fed around Luca, but it's the same thing, right? Like they've won more games than I expected, because you have Luca, don't you, Austin, Razor, LeBron, James, out on the court at all times. So, I'm with you. I think you've made these bets at different times of who's going to win the Eastern Conference. I'm guessing. But what right now today? I mean, yeah, I think I would join you. It's going to be one of these four teams, but I didn't want to get to be. Yeah, shout out to our producer, our prop points, Michael Cohen, who went sick of mode with every team that I talked about, as a potential team to win the East.

21:43Look, I'll pick one of these. I kind of like Boston at plus 380. Okay, I really do. I mean, we saw the full Jason Tatum infomercial during the All-Star game on Sunday. I don't think you run that for a guy who's not coming back this season. That was clearly to me a coordinated PR effort between Tatum and the Celtics and NBC sports to get that out there. I think we see Tatum back within the next two or three weeks. And to me, at that price, especially when I'm talking about it, huge difference between the calves at three to one and Boston at plus 380. But all these teams are really comparable. Boston has the experience. They don't have the elephant in the room of, oh, it's James Harden going to come out and score seven points on nine shots in game seven when we need him most. The question, of course, is what version of Jason Tatum are you getting? But if he's back, you know, let's say, I don't know, March 5th, you give me a month and a half of Jason Tatum to ramp up going into the post season. I think that's enough time. And I think what we saw Boston do at the deadline, sending out amfordy Simon's, you know, making a point to address the center position, which was their biggest weakness. I don't think they do that unless they're counting on real minutes from Jason Tatum, when it matters most. We're going to get him out of here without getting him to change his Twitter handle on,

22:45on air. We're going to do this. Have you ever gone mad? Have you ever gone to Nick at Nick Whalen on Twitter? There's, so there's another Nick Whalen in our industry. That's the problem. That's the problem. So we went to at Nick Whalen yesterday, because we're going to get you to try to change it here on air. Guess what? Nick Whalen, uh, 15 years ago, he tweeted for a week about hating his job, and he has never tweeted again, since then, and you can't get Nick Whalen. Unfortunately, at Whalen, with the one for the L appreciated Nick, prop points a little bit later with Nick. I'm. He says these sports betting network. Number game here own. Bees and these sports betting network. Appreciate Nick Whalen. Stop and buy, of course, being in town for fantasy sports gaming association. Winter meetings here that is being held right here at our, at our home. home. It's Sarka doing the meetings throughout the, the property here. So gave us two segments

23:48of his time. And as you said, some of those, some of those big guns, some of those bets from the preseason, looking pretty good. Yeah, looking pretty good. Nick went on to a sharp dude, man. That's what I've been having. I have that. Nick on shows for how far have we gone back with him prime time action days for sure. Yeah, even before that, even probably green zone days, man, we've been Nick, even before he's become a regular part of you. So we've been having on shows for seven, eight years. Yeah, we definitely. Yeah, we've been talking to him for, for quite some time. And again, just the, the legalization of sports betting does bring in a lot more fantasy minds because again, when you're, when you're handicapping, making a DFS team or making fantasy, like you're, you are kind of just also handicapping props. It's just, it's just in a different form, right? Yeah. I mean, yeah, you get little bonus points here and there in DFS for a double, double or triple double or whatever. You know, I'm in a stuff like that. I mean, there are different little ways that you can tweak your lineup and then you have to bring in game theory and all

24:49of that from a lineup construction standpoint. But at the end of the day, it's still, is this guy going to have a good game or not against this team on a night tonight base? Yeah. And so brings in their thoughts on, on all that guys. If you haven't done so already, you can check out vc.com. You can become a pro subscriber for as little as 999. Go in, you get the daily picks from not only the hosts, but all of the guests as well. We've got the AI powered props over there. We got the matchup tool. We got the video feeds. So if you want to come in and you can get a full replay and the video side of things with all of that. If you're a recent pro subscriber and of course, the betting guides as well are included. And oh, we just happened to have dropped one yesterday. So the MLB betting guide is in there. So you can get that for as little as 999 visa.com slash subscribe. I would suggest becoming a decent pro subscriber because you just buy the guide of 1999. And if you are becoming a decent pro at 999, I think it makes sense. I probably just that checks out. I'd probably just get everything for a month. If I was just again, if I was somebody out there. Yeah,

25:52that checks. If I was just a drop in it. So we, you know, we just we're talking about the connection between fantasy baseball and also just the the Providing side of things. But a lot there's the industry is just collide a ton anyway. We know a lot of people who are very avid sports betters are also high stakes fantasy players as well. These are guys that spend a ton of money on high buy in leagues each and every year. And it's and that's season long stuff as well as of course, then moving into DFS once the seasons get going. It's kind of draft season beginning. Yeah. Like it's a little early for for baseball draft season. But it's some of these bigger by the way, they're having they have one here for, you know, for this for this conference, right? So they have like a big I think it's a $5,000 buy in or something like that. They have one of those big drafts this evening for all of that. And so, you know, I'm I get into it. I'm in a long standing league that's a fairly high, fairly high buy in with all of that. And so we thought we'd at least over the next couple of days while I'm still in here, just talk through some some pictures and some hitters who

26:52I'm a little higher on and a little bit lower on than maybe the market. Yeah. I kind of want to throw some questions at you because what will do pictures today? It will do batters tomorrow, right? We'll do I want to ask some basics and then we'll kind of get into a couple of your lists that you're looking at for guys kind of upside high upside guys and then some high fades. Just real quicks of news from the hockey game. Uh, uh, uh, two two two two two two two two and the third Sydney Crosby left the game. Uh, in the second period due to injury return uncertain. So not good for us. We've already lost one guy for the season in the Olympics. So some an NHL player. Yeah. One NHL player is done for the season. Yeah. This is not what NHL teams were doing doing the Olympics and stuff like that. So again, just a, this was the obvious, so obviously the huge downside. It's awesome to have NHL players in the Olympics. It's great. Yes. The huge downside is exactly multimillion dollar assets for companies that, uh, yes, the rights to these guys there in is the worst. Yeah. Okay. So switching back to the

27:52fancy baseball. So I just started off with when we're looking at pictures, what are, what are you weighing is most important? What kind of, uh, profile pitching profile you're looking at, when do we start talking starters versus relievers, all that kind of stuff, some of the basics. So it's kind of the same deal we talk about all the time when it's any of these contests or any bet that you make or anything. Well, it's, it's, it's the same like know your house rules, essentially know your league rules because different, they're different setups all over the different place. So I have preferred leagues that have moved to quality starts over wins. I actually think a blend of quality starts and wins is kind of the way to go now because it used to be, okay, we can't just do wins because guys go out and perform well and then they don't get rewarded for it, but it can almost can't just be quality starts now because they don't want pictures pitched long into games anymore. You know, a quality start, you have to go six endings and allow three if you were under runs, right? Well, 50, only 53 guys made 30 starts last year in Major League Baseball. Only 53 guys made at least 30 starts in Major League Baseball. Only 10 of those 53

28:58average six endings per start. Over the course of the entire season, only 85 guys made 25 starts. So again, it's just the, the, the picture, the value of the super, super, super high end picture is high. And then then you kind of get into, I'm not going to say everybody's the same, because that's not true. But, but the, the difference in a scooble and a skeens and, and whatever is so, so, so completely different than even somebody that is that we would still consider an ace because they, they just, again, they just don't let guys go deep into games anymore. Guys get injured. They rest them whenever they have even the slightest of tweet as they should. But any kind of, any kind of arm, anything, it's like, okay, I'll 10 days, you know, so like, just shut you down instantly and all that. So again, just the, the value of a picture, just understand, is not near what, what it used to be. Okay, I like it. So now you, you've, you've put together a couple of lists or we've got kind of high upside guys that you're looking at that maybe not, it won't be some of the first guys off the board, right? And then also some guys

30:00that you are looking to kind of fade this year. Yeah. So I got five different upside guys here. Bubba Chandler is somebody I was a year early on. If you were listening to the programming last year, I had a rookie the year, take it on him on the, he ended up getting a little dinged up and never made it didn't make it up until late in the season. But I mean, this is a guy that literally has front end of the rotation written all over him. And if it wasn't for, for Paul schemes, then you would talk about this guy being like the number one guy on the Pirates. But instead, you know, a hell of a one, two, if he goes into what we look, we're talking about a guy who has sharpened his command. Since he's been there with this is a dude with just unbelievably awesome stuff to begin with in the first place, elite fastball slider combination, like swinging mistype stuff all over the place with him on that. He's actually got a change up that is pretty playable to left ease. And a curve ball that is, it's, it's more than just a lot throw a curve ball. It actually is a pretty decent little curve ball. So four pitch, four pitch repertoire. But obviously, the, the fastball slider combos, what you're looking at with him, I do believe if, uh,

31:02if he can make you 25 starts, you could be looking at a guy that seriously kind of produces at starting pitcher two type levels with all of that chase burns. Another guy that I'm pretty high on here, one of the most electric prospects in baseball. If you guys watched the end of last season chase burns, got up. I mean, this is a guy that's pretty routinely 98, 99, 100, 101, sometimes with a fastball. And again, just a, a wipeout slider from him as well. He also throws a curve into change. He is spending a lot of time this spring training, trying to make those better pitches because they were just kind of unlike Bubba Chandler where I said is the, you know, it's not just, oh, I throw these things like the curve ball and change from more just kind of like show me pitches. They were just there to let the person know you can't just expect a fastball slider every single time. But he's working really tough on those. But again, you're talking about a guy that has a hundred miles an hour with a wipeout slider and is going to, if he can get a third or fourth pitch, it's really, you know, I think the upside is there for him a ton. Ian Seymour, another guy,

32:02if you watched, he did pitch a decent amount last year. But I think the ceiling can be even higher for him. He's had success everywhere that he has been. And let's remember, he plays for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay moves back to Tropicana field this year. So it's no longer playing in the triple A stadium. So you get that all of those advantages that we used to love about Tampa Bay raised pitchers. Comes back into play this season because they're moving back into Tropicana field. So that doesn't play very good for hitters. Therefore, sure, one other guy here in Tetsuya Mai, he's a guy that got signed from the Japan League over there to the to the Astros. Come on, you can do the one nine two ERA last year over there in Japan, 27% K rate over there in Japan as well. Now, will that translate exactly over here to the majors? Maybe not. He's on the smaller side, kind of like a 510-ish, 511-ish dude or whatever, you know, not one of your kind of big hulking. He's not, he's not Shohei, you know what I'm saying? But again, a guy that throws high 90s, mid to high 90s with with really, really, really good stuff. And the final guy here for me

33:05is a guy that unfortunately, Troy Melton, they signed, they ended up signing Justin Verlander there in Detroit, which might push him out of the rotation. At least at the beginning of the season, he'll start and probably will start in triple A unless there's an injury to one of the guys. They have slated for the rotation, but I think he will force his way into this lineup. We're talking about a guy that is just so incredibly good. He has had success for three years off every level that he has ever been. And he even came in late season for the Tiger team last year and through to a 276 ERA with a 1.01 whip and 45 innings. And so unfortunate signing for him that I think that it might push him into the minors to start the season, but he will be up as soon as anything goes wrong with any of those guys. And I think he's still a guy that you can draft in your league. Okay, it's just a little bit later. You know, you're just a little bit later. Just late. Just late. He's a late round guy that like might be down in the minors for two or three weeks before he comes up. All right, I like. So we'll hit some of the fades on the other side. Yeah, with some fades here on the other side, put a bow on this episode. Get all the bets in the account here and see if we can't maybe check it home. Yeah, it's going to say get in home with with with check

34:33a number of games here on these sports betting. Now we're not brown, Kelly Bidlin, sweating the end of this Chetia. See, I'm not even calling it Canada. It's the Chetia hockey game. That's right. We're Czechia, Czechia, Czech Republic, or the Czech Republic. Any of those things. I've been kind of like I didn't mention it, but I've been watching them install new slot machines over here. Yeah, it did. It is. I think for people that don't off, if you come to Vegas every once in a while, the things you don't see that we see because this looks like a, this looks like a process. It is. I mean, this was this was a burden. They still don't even have the stuff on the screen. Let's think about like a bunch of code on the screen right now that they're like going all through out here just to put two stage coach riches machines out there on the floor. I don't understand the, the other one I don't get is where they they move them all around all the time too. Like the same machines, like I think you are right. I think those are brand new ones, but the like they'll just pick these up and move them into different

35:35points in the casino, which I don't really fully understand except for my the best guesses. They want to avoid any advantage players getting a lock on where a certain machine is. If it's about to hit a jackpot or something, but still yeah, it's why it's not the things you don't see in Vegas. Casinos that happen all the time. So this is just coming through here that again, where there's news that happens in the off season. If you remember, they kind of kick the can down the road on the Rossi rice. Yeah. Case. So they've they've come across the complaint here. And again, these are all allegations, but Kelly done sound good. Yeah. So defendant rice grabbed choked, strangled, pushed, thrown, scratch hit and headbutted misjones as well as hit her with inanimate objects. Additionally, he's engaged in other violent and abusive behaviors towards misjones, including throwing objects, destroying property, punching walls and breaking furniture, as well as locking her out of the house in the middle of the night. Many of these behaviors occurred while misjones was pregnant.

36:38So again, it's we're a betting network. And so having it this doesn't seem good for the prospects of Rossi rice playing next year for for the chiefs. If any of this stuff, even if a quarter of this stuff is true. And if all of us true, then for sure. And this is this is the this is the this is the court. That's from the court, right? Yes. Yes. The Dallas, the Dallas County district court. So they're in court. Yes. You know, sometimes with these things, right? We're we can say, oh, you got to wait for wait for the whole of the legal proceedings to work out. They're going to have worked out this time around before before the season starts. Definitely seems like. So again, just we're we're making no judgments. We know what I'm just reading you. What is what was what was put out in court there in Dallas County court? It will all play out there. But again, if you're if you're hit, we were talking about these massive futures and these long term futures and stuff like that. And if you were not very high on the chiefs as it was anyway, yeah, that's you know, or wide receiver concerns does yet does not look does not look great for him. We just went through

37:43five different guys that I think that are at least interesting from a fantasy baseball perspective. It may be even a prop perspective for me. I'd be basically all of those dudes are swinging miss guys, all of those guys. You see it starts to see props kind of you get props posted. You know, listen, you need to do you need to see the workload. Make sure that they're going to give them full innings at least for a couple of starts. And after that, you start seeing anything posted at the four and a half or five and a half. I like those guys a ton. We've already seen multiple 10 strikeout gains from from burns from chase burns in the in the majors already. As it is. Anyway, three guys I'm fading all three. You can probably see injury concerned dudes with big names, Spencer strider, Bryce Miller, Zach Wheeler. They're just too much for me where they're going in drafts. And then also I just don't know what the production is going to look like Spencer strider. It seems like they got some film on Spencer strider. He was a two pitch pitcher. I mean, full on two pitch pitcher. He didn't even throw anything else, right? Like he threw nothing but fastballs and sliders. Well, that fastball that was 101 miles an hour after the surgery is now sitting more

38:46in like 96 97, right? And if that's the case and you really only throw a slider is your only other pitch and stuff like major kidders are just way too good. And we saw a strikeout rate decline a ton when the V low went down and and all that. Now we don't I don't know what Bryce Miller and Zach Wheeler are going to look like as they come back from from their injuries. But again, Zach Wheeler's much older now too. Just don't know if he can get to that same level of success. And so where they're going in drafts more than anything Kelly is I just don't want to pay the price for guys that I think have major, major question marks around them. So I will be fading strider Miller and Wheeler this season when it comes to drafts. Yeah, I had pulled up a couple kind of rankings of where these guys were from the different sites. I was surprised to see Zach Wheeler actually as far as out there as I did. So I think that all makes sense and a good break down there with a with strider for sure. So Gil, even though we don't know he could be on he could be on the moon for all we know, but it's still fire in tennis. Yeah, Delray Beach open there we go. We're getting getting money at least from a gilfra for bets here. Terrence

39:50at man at midday. Money line at money. It's going to say, come on man, you're a tennis guy. Money line plus one 18 versus Flavio Caboli. That one I've seen before starts in 10 minutes. Thank you, daddy. Yes. So get if you want to tell Gil, he's firing away and I match the search in 10 minutes. A couple NBA plays for me did bet those calves futures. So best record after the all star break plus four 50 calves to win the central division 10 to one. And then I am in on the nicks already tomorrow night, laying four and a half against the Detroit pistons. We'll hill on the show earlier Missouri in college basketball. The night catching three and a half against Vanderbilt. He is on Oklahoma state, uh, catching five and a half against Kansas and BYU, which might join him on this one, Matt, uh, 12 and a half at Arizona co-appeating. I could play in that game. Thought that was a pretty big number too. And then he is fading the United States of America. Sweden on the puck line plus one and a half. He will hill is the guy. He will come in. He will tell you a bad beat story of his fantasy football game in the middle of the season. It wasn't even

40:54a playoff one. Then he'll take and eat the last slice of pizza. And then everyone's having a great time. And then he won't. And then he, and then he brings up the politics. Great dinner conversation. He brings up everyone's laugh and having fun doing whatever. And he's like, anyway, can you guys believe the election? Like it early. We're, we're just, we see that he's going against the USA. We're like, okay, well, we got it. We got to give it to him. I let him know that I, the other one I like to give will crap about his, uh, he used to hit me up every one so well about, uh, to check it on some top Hogi odds out here. It's always let him know what top Hogi's at every way. He's good. He's playing this week. He's playing in the Genesis. Yeah, top Hogi. I think it's not 220 to one. So here we, uh, here we go with my Genesis picks. And again, maybe I will be in here tomorrow. We will have 15 minutes to give you any additional thoughts before this thing tees off tomorrow. Again, if you're on the East Coast, 1015 Eastern your time before these guys tee off. So you can, you can make sure that you have every bit of information before you go to it. Zander, Zander Shuffle, like 22 to one, Tommy Fleetwood, 22 to one, Adam Scott, 61 on the outrights there, Colin Moore, Cala in the top 10. I'm going to give ride this heater while

41:59I can check. Yeah. Did they win? No way. Who scored? Oh, okay. I can't see the score bug. Nice. There we go, daddy. Three, two, we're all knockout round. Check. Yeah. This is not good. So we, yeah, we might not even play can. Might even, might not even have to play those big bad Canadians. We're, yeah, Jake Khan. We're, yeah, Jake Khan is counting his buddy for betching three and a half a jacket. Max home. I want a massive goal. Max home at top 20 plus 290 for that one as well. Again, long form explanations on all of those found over on long shots wherever you get your podcasts and over on the YouTube channel as well. 742 left. And it's all off of the sports. They just, they just showed a shot of the check, check you a bench. Oh, it's just going nuts. That's great. That's great. Okay. For me, for Genesis, perfect show, show ending timing, too. We get the, we get to watch the final four minutes of this now. Genesis invitation. You put it well, Matt. We're going to have first segment tomorrow. We will

43:00circle back to this. I guarantee you, I will have ads before this tournament starts. Again, I've been kind of a little weary of the weather here. And what we're going to get first round leader bets. I'll probably have, well, anywhere between zero and like four tomorrow. If I think first, I think there's that big of an advantage with the weather. So outright again, only thing that I bet Scotty Sheffler, I did boost it over an MGM. So if you're seeing plus 375, you're like, I can't find that number. It was like three to one. I boosted it up to plus 375. I think anything three to one or better would have been a play for me. But you know, just remind if you have boost, use them. They are some of our books that I actually get frustrated constantly by that. Matt, just how many times I pull up and open my MGM account. And there's just always a boost waiting. I'm like, how often are these things here? I don't even know. Winner without Sheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, 20 to one, and also a top 10 on Deke top 20s. Then for me on Matt Fitzpatrick, Jake nap, Ricky Fowler, Shane Lowry, tournament matchups, Tommy Fleet would over Patrick Cantley and Russell Henley over Colin Boracawa again, all of our bets,

44:05West's bets up at Vison.com. Any ads overnight or tomorrow morning will be there as well. Over there in Dubai, we're blocking the retires. So she's not, she's, she's, she, she, she decided she wasn't going to play the third set. Coco Gough loses the first set six two bites back to win 7663. She had 28 double faults in the match and so one. Yes, and still one. Wasn't that what got her at the Australian? 28 double faults. It is the most it in a single WTA level event in this, in this season. So yeah, wow. Didn't serve the ball too well for the Coco, but she came back in one. She won anyway. She overcame Kelly Persevere. Guys, don't go anywhere. Following us, prop points, Jeff Erickson and the previously on the Desnick Wayland going, yeah, money moves. Joe Seralo, Ben Stevens follows them and then follow the money with Stormy Bond and Tony and Dustin Swayderson on the desk with Stormy today. Good luck on all your bets.