A Numbers Game | February 17, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00This is B-Sense, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story to always do. Swandals, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Abysander, gone B-Sense. Ah, yeah, our number three here on a Tuesday. That's not good here on a Tuesday. Even though we don't have anything to do. Too bad other than the mono bomb. Curling. Curling. Curling. Curling in the end. Oh, you have to say for China. It all goes down today. Is that it? Is that the finals? No, I don't know. Oh, are we doing it right now? Oh, yeah, we're doing it right now. We're only in the, I can't read. There's lights too bright. Yeah. How many ends are left? Well, I don't. I couldn't tell you how. We're in the ninth end. Okay, so this is coming down to the wire. There's only 10 ends. Thank you, Matt. Thank you. Just going to ask nine of how many? Well, so, so here's.

1:00So here's the thing. So here's the thing. Well, so here's the thing. It comes to find out Mike Sommers knows an odd, an odd amount about curling, the least surprising thing I've heard today. Because apparently he was. He probably like owned a team at some point. No, no, it was apparently he's always been into the winter Olympics for whatever reason. Like I don't. Maybe the first guy that I've ever. Yeah. That guy. Thing. No, no, it's not like a big sports fan better thing. Well, usually when you hear that someone's super into the winter Olympics, it's usually a female because like, you know, you have some, you have the ice skating and you have the different things and all that. It's your mom. Yeah. Whoever you are listening or watching, it's your mom. Yeah, like loves it. I just don't hear very many dudes being like, yeah, man, I'm super into the winter. But Sommage is and he knew every single thing there was to know about curling. The whole kitten. Why that was such a big thing. The double touching. He knew why the double touching was a bad thing. Like it's the all the stuff.

2:02It was really overtaking the ready set bet, huh? Well, I mean, kind of. Sort of. Sort of. As much as we. As much as I will allow. Yes. As much as I will allow until we move on. We move to the different next discussion. But holy mackerel. I was just like, talk for like two straight minutes about all the stuff about curling. And I'm like, are you serious, Clark? Why can't we get. We should. We should have a live bet stream going on with Mike Sommage, Ben Wilson calling. I mean, I said yesterday every morning, curling's on. I don't even know when it ends. I think these guys are just in Italy for like the next month or two. Just curling every. He brought up. He brought up. He. He dated a girl and went curling with her. Like a long way. Shockingly, they didn't end up together. Okay. Now I'm more interested in this story. Shockingly, they didn't end up together. What. Where was he living? I mean, I California. Like you just, you found a place to go curling. Man, I don't know. He's living multiple places. I don't know where you, where he, where he curls. I'm sure there's curling. If I also can't tell. Probably a Beverly Hills curling club.

3:02Probably. Probably. Would you assume. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that seems like very. Hey, I'm like, I'm still trying. Is that like a flex? Is that like a flex date? Like that's a. I'm going to take you curling. Yeah. Is that, is that, is that a trying to impress? Surprise. She showed up. It was me and I'm being serious. It's a surprise. She showed up. Maybe he had to tell her in the car. Once they were, once they were already on their way. So you got a surprise for you. She had to pretend she was into it. This is our photo. Google it. The whole time. One is curling. How does one curl? I just. Oh, Mike. I just can't even believe it's safe to do if you don't know what you're doing. You're running on ice. So I can't believe you can even do it. Oh, that's my big. Every time I watch my biggest takeaway is I don't get how these shoes work. Yeah. Just that shoes. Just the shoes. How do you have enough traction on there to push off on ice, right? Well, also being able to kind of slide. They also slide. It makes no sense. Maybe it's like those kids. Maybe it's like those kids shoes that also have the little roller skate built in.

4:04You see them like walking all of a sudden they just start gliding across the ground. Have you seen these kids that have like like one roller skate? I'm pretty sure that was like 15 years ago too. Like your kids still using them. I don't know if they are. I remember is being old enough that the first time I ever saw them. I was like, man, I missed out on that. Like you're telling you wouldn't have rocked those when you're like 11 years old. Come on, man. You know what? I was. I was actually never a very, very big in the skating. I've never ice skated once. I knew that about it. I've only rollerbladed like five times. Yeah. But like, come on, man. You grew up like like you were in like the. I've only roller skating. I've been like eight of rollerblading. Come on man, the 90s rollerblading in the 90s. Was there anything cooler? Did you, did you rollerblade? I mean, I can. Yeah. I'm gonna assume I can't. I haven't like 20 years. Oh, but you, did you have a pair of. Yeah. So I have a plate. I played street hockey in California. I'm going to get Kelly's mom. If you're listening or watching right now, I would like you to text me a picture of Kelly and rollerblades. I would like to see that pick. No problem. Yeah, sure.

5:04Get that. I'm actually right now. She probably got one handy. I'm loving it. get to that for sure. Okay. So we, we played ice hockey in Russia. How about that flex? How about that? You want to go out somewhere? Played ice hockey in Russia. You mean, you mean country, not to be named whatever it is, or whatever it is independent athletes, independent athlete of the world. Yes. Of the world or something like that. Yes. That's where you played. Actually, that's right. So we, uh, we talked a little bit about this subject. Remember Drew was on, um, most regular season wins and also, uh, best record down the stretch. We can start here with most regular season wins. And as you would imagine, yes, it is the Oklahoma City Thunder as your favorite as they currently have the most wins in the NBA. That being said, they have 42. The pistons have 40. You do have the spurs with 38. Now everybody in the next closest in both conferences would be at 35. That is the nuggets and then also the Celtics and nicks. Both have 35 shortly behind them is the calves at 34 Kelly Bidlin. So we do know thunder likely to get healthy. Um, they're only

6:09three games up. So again, like coasting is not really in the question here. Um, they can't just coast to the one seed. Yeah. So there is every bit of motivation for this team. It's not like we're looking up right now. We're talking about a team that's, you know, seven up in the one in the one seed or something. Mm hmm. Yeah. This one's, this one's tough. I don't know where you landed here. This like, think it is as much as we've kind of talked about betting against thunder and pistons. It feels like this week, right? Like, yeah, they still have that lead. I think it's probably one of them. It's tempting to look down the board though. It is like if you want to, if you want to tell me you, if you're the biggest spurs believer out there, I don't think 13 to one is a terrible bet on them. And I like, look, I think there's a, I think there's a chance that one of these, and it's probably that I'll bring up the team. We've been talking about because I think it applies to the next market too. It might be a bet for me. They're like, Cavaliers, right? Like if this is, this all really clicks with Mitchell Harden. I mean, it sounds silly and 500 to one.

7:10That's where I don't know if they're going to be able to make up that much ground. I, I think there's a chance though that they, they're a team like that to able to do it. I think that if I like them to try and up it as a way, if I like them to try and run down the pistons, then I have to try and, yeah, then it has to almost accompany with a bet that they could. This is a great point. There's a, you and Drew both talked about making that bet. I think 500 to one is what we're getting on this day. Yeah. I think you have to like, you have to, you have to throw something on that. So it could, well, all we've talked about thunder and nuggets, how hard to schedule as they have for me. Thunder are still banged up SGA. Um, can't even remember if we were talking about this or drew on or off the air. I don't think it's really any problem. I think he'll be back. I don't think he's going to miss like serious time. I don't think there's any long term concern. But he's still out. Jay, Jaydubs had struggles staying healthy and kind of getting reaclimated this whole season. Like I, if they play off started today, the thunder would not be in a great position as far as playing injuries they've had to deal with this year and really seeing their full team out on the court. And the pistons we have doubts about. I think

8:15it's fair. Look, I think that look, there are worse 500 to one bets to make. I agree, absolutely worse 500. So let's then talk about down the stretch, which I actually think there's a bet here. So down the stretch, obviously, now we're talking about teams with anywhere from 26 to 29 games. Is that correct? I don't think anyone has 30 believe you are correct. I think it's 26 to 29 games. Um, yeah, 26 29. Yeah. Uh, in, in the league, thunder plus one nine five, the calves are plus four 50. You got eight to one on the spurs, nine to one on the nuggets. And then 12 to one rocket 12 to one piston 17 to one nicks. And then everybody else is 25 to one or longer, including the Boston Celtics that Drew said he really likes and will in fact, at some point get Jason Tatum back. Uh, we don't know when no timeline set, but he will come back at some point for the squad. What is the bet here that you said you think that there is to make? I, I, I, calves. Yeah. I think it's the calves. I mean, I know we keep circle backs in my, but this is the obvious tack on to the, if you think

9:17they're going to run down the piston, then they're going to have to have one of the best, if not the best records. Yeah. Of all the markets that we've talked about, though, this is the one that I, I will make this bet. If I could, if I was searching around before the show for, for somewhere in town here, this is struggling to find this posted. I think this it plus four 50 anywhere above four to one. I think, I think this is a bet. You've got, we talked about where they fall, uh, with strength, the schedule. This is not thunder. Have it, thunder and nuggets have the top two toughest schedules remaining. That is going to be tougher, especially with the injuries they're dealing with. Those two teams, I'm definitely not looking at here. I think you can easily make a case calves spurs. If you want to even look longer, it, Drew sounds like he's got a little bit more faith in the rockets than I do. I have right now. I just, I think that team is reliant way too much on Kevin Durant offensively and they were getting away with it earlier in the season with Steve Adams and what they were able to do on the glass, um, beating up all these teams. I don't know if I, if I'm fully on board with him, but yeah, man, calves, calves, calves. So if we get to, if you want to talk about, you know, we keep talking about these teams to have

10:19the easiest schedules, the easiest remaining is Portland, then Sacramento, but they don't want to win the clippers. Do they want to win or they don't, you know, it's like, you they do. But oh, man, I have a clippers rant. It's, y'all make it real quick. The, I don't know. I don't know, Matt. Who knows? It all I've been talking, everybody is finally using the all-star break to get caught up on some stats here. And all I keep hearing about is how great Kauai Leonard has been. And if he didn't miss time at the beginning of the season, he's probably in the MVP discussion. Maybe that's true. Maybe that's true, Matt. You know what I know, though, for sure, is that the franchise itself had no faith in a Kauai Leonard led clippers team running through the playoffs with the, with the roster that they had. They shipped off those pieces. So I don't really know if they're trying to win or lose or what they have two against the Kings, three against the Pelicans, two against the Pacers, two against the Mavs, one against the Grizzly team that might go ahead and just wave the white flag. That was interesting to hear from Drew too. And then two against the box, which again, we, we have been told that you want us to come back and play. It's

11:22another one you know, but we don't know. Yeah, you don't know. Because if they shut him down as soon as they, if he gets shut down for the season, they're signaling what they're doing. Yeah. I really like, I like the cast in this car. Thunder nuggets, again, schedule injury issues. I think this is a great market to get in on a little bit of the longer time. It is a fun and interesting market nonetheless. And if you again, you're giving yourself a sweat down the stretch. And I'm glad that they offer these markets now. These are all things it didn't used to be offered to us not too long ago. Paul Carr on soccer when we come back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Vs in pro.

12:39And number came here on Bs in the sports betting network. Maybe we will have time in the final segment. We got to go country club and you can teach everybody. Mark Cuban put out a rant on why the NBA should embrace tanking. Okay. And a big long little diatribe. But basically the gist of it in case we can't get to the full thing by the time we get out of here Kelly is that the NBA should worry more about the fan experience than tanking. It should worry more about the price about pricing fans out of games than tanking. Basically trying to say that it kids carrying more about this than it is about the experience of the fans. And he basically points out that fans aren't stupid. They understand that like you're not going to win every single night. And that, you know, also sometimes these things are for the betterment of the franchise, which then will make their experience better because it's better to have a winning team and all of this and saying they're focusing on the wrong thing here. And the thing should be why don't we try to make the game more accessible to fans and make fans have a better experience. So we'll see. But how do you do? I know it's not you saying these

13:41things. But how do you do that if you're benching guys that people are coming to see? Well, I'm sure Mark Cuban would have a retort to that. But yeah, I thought it was a great, great episode of a hoop collective podcast. You know, I've brought up a couple of times already. But you know, win horse kind of breaking this down of the it's just such an imperfect system. And it's, it's, it's nearly impossible to fix because of that. The way that the league is constructed is in a socialist type setting, right? Of like we're going to try to keep everybody good and involved. And that's just not the way that a franchise is going to operate. A franchise is always going to think for what's best for itself. First, hence tanking, right? Which that is not going to lead to what's good for the league. It's just, it's a mess. And I've not heard the best answer. I don't know what the best answer is to fix this. Maybe Paul Karnos. He's going to join us here from true media sports, expected value podcast at Paul Karnos. How do we fix tanking, Paul? I have no idea, but it did trigger a thought for me. So I feel like in the NFL,

14:45fans of bad teams pretty openly will, you know, root against them to get a higher draft. Is, and I'm not much of an NBA follower. So you guys tell me, is that as much of a thing in the NBA? It's, well, the problem is is because you're not guaranteed the pick, which is one of the, one of the things that Kelly and I did throw out is like just doing away with the lottery part of it. And then just, you know, understand that if you're the worst team, you get the top pick, and then maybe the caveat is that you can't be in the top three, two years in a row or so, whatever, or something like that. So you can't just have repeated tanks over and over again. But in just every draft class is not created equal, right? Like not every, you know, Zachary Risa Shea is not Darren Peterson, right? Or Victor Wemba Nyama. Like that's part of the problem. And yeah, Paul, the other problem is there are, there are bad characters in this, right? Like the Washington Wizards have lost way too many years for way too long that it's just unacceptable. And I think that's where fans get to a point where it's like, okay, we're okay if you tank once or twice, but you can't be doing this every single year, which is what it's kind of

15:49I guess there's something to, you know, there's just more games in the NBA. And a player makes a bigger difference way more than any other sport, right? There's just fewer on the field, you know, I mean, we see it over here. The Browns beat the Steelers in week 16 or whatever for no reason at all because, you know, there's just so many players and the difference is smaller. Exactly. Like, I mean, you, you, you tank and like everyone's like, oh, this team is tanking. And then you like, and then you get a lucodonchitz or something, you know, and like, and then it just, you get a full of access, much better too. Yeah. And so you get all of that. And then it's like, oh, well, never mind. That's why you tanked. I get it. Make perfect. Yeah, those top, those top two, three picks in the NBA have a much higher hit percentage than the number one, two, three, picks the NFL, even a quarterback. Yes, absolutely. Paul, we actually got, we had, we had a request here on the Twitter machine making sure you were going to be on today to talk champions leagues so can kind of reset the table here. Where do we sit? We're starting the business end. So we're in the knockout stage now. It's last season, they added this extra round. They call it the playoff round. It's essentially the round of 32, but there's only 16 teams in it. So there's eight matchups.

16:53So it's a play in into the round of 16, which over the past few decades has traditionally been the start of the knockout round. So this is the first leg this week of two. And the second leg is, I think it's next week. And then the aggregate winner from each of those series will go on to the round of 16. And then we're in knockout stages, Paul. Or it is in the knockout stage. Yeah. Okay. They call the playoff round, but this is the knockout stage. It's just kind of a half round earlier than it used to be. Okay. Got you. Yes. Change added teams changing up way that we are doing things. I know you've got, we've got games today tomorrow. Let's start with the one you were looking at today. All right. So I had been Fika double chance against Real Madrid today. That has been Fika win or draw been Fika. These teams played three weeks ago. Been Fika one four to two. And this was not a, you know, kind of where they soccer. I'm going to get lucky to get pull out the win. They outplayed Real Madrid. They beat him in transition. They beat him on set pieces. Real Madrid's moved up to first place in La Liga, but really haven't been that good under new manager, Alvaro Arboloa lately. So been Fika's going to defend well. They have Joseph

17:57Amarino who used to manage around Madrid is known for kind of parking the bus. And I don't think Benfica is quite going to do that defensively, but that they'd well play stout defense. And I'm not convinced Real Madrid can break them down. They're missing a couple of tackers. You've been bailing him Rodriguez out for injury and suspension. So I like Benfica on the double chance. I got this at minus one 15 and it has moved well in my favor. I guess you'd say today. It's close to a minus one 30 minus one 50 range now. So I wouldn't play this past minus one 30 or so. So this may be a little bit of an outdated pick, but I like Benfica's chances today against Real Madrid. Alrighty. Tomorrow you got to I can't wait for you. I can't wait for you. I can't I'm going there. You are. Yeah, you are. I texted more. I didn't read it. I'll try. I texted Paul last night. We've been, we've been, I have been talking to Paul Carr about soccer for a long time now. It's been five, six years, something like that. It is rare for me to see a team come through the text message that I have not seen before. Got it last night because Newcastle will

19:00be going up against us. Let's do it. FK Karabakh. I'm going to go. Karabakh. Yeah. There you go. It's just like it looks all done, buddy. Well done. Nailed it. There we go. So that is tomorrow saying 1245. This is tomorrow. And I'm not saying I made the pictures to make Kelly pronounce this but I'm not, I'm not saying that either. So yeah. Karabakh and Newcastle. I have both teams to score minus 115 here. So Karabakh is an Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea. It's like a six hour flight from England. And it's really funny to see English just media fans kind of freak out about five and six hour flights when they have to go to Eastern Europe because you know, obviously here it's like, you worked LA. It's not too soon to just once a month or something. But there it's like, oh my goodness. And yeah. So that's a big, that's something. But Karabakh scored in all their home games this season. They scored twice in all five actually in the Champions League and racked up the numbers, the underlying numbers to support that. Not super fluke. They've also given up a goal in nine of their 10 Champions League games, including qualifying. So Newcastles

20:05been the best team in the Premier League on set pieces this season. Karabakh hasn't defended those well. So look for Newcastle and maybe get at least a goal that way among other possibilities. And Newcastle also doesn't have Bruno in the midfield. He's injured. He's out to April. So that should give Karabakh some space whether it's on the counter or just building up to try to get a goal. So this is was partially made to make Kelly say the team name partially because this is one of the fun bets to root for. But I generally like this one minus one 15 on both teams. Paul Clark giving us a lesson here on all this Azerbaijan former Soviet Republic. It's bound by the Caspian Sea in the Caucasus mountains there. Kelly Bidlin. And it is it's a capital of Baku. It is famed for its medieval walled inner city. The inner city is walled off in their dates back to the 15th century. Well, well, look at that. Good job. That's how you like that. I want to spin this forward. The Paul is there more fun we can have with this Karabakh team because we're playing both teams to score. Who's scoring for a Karabakh? That's right. That's what I want. That that, you know, if you have to call in or ask a by Johnny expert to come in for that.

21:09Whiteups are not yet anyway, but that would be my backup excuse, but we're really it's yeah, I can't say I'm dialed in on who's going to get the goals against Newcastle. Olympiacos and Liever Kusin, did I get it right? Who just legalized Kusin? Liever Kusin. I said Liever Kusin. You said Liever. Liever, Liever, Liever, whatever. It's all the same. It's the American pronunciation or whatever with all of that. We are looking. Oh, you have you have the dog in this one. I do take it. I mean, it's a better team for sure. This is a little funny also because they played last month in Greece, which is where this game is and Olympiacos won that one 2-0. So maybe that's influencing this number here, but in that game, Liever Kusin outshot Olympiacos 17-6, two and a half expected goals to 1.0 had 72% possession. A little bit of that is because Olympiacos scored in the first minute and then got a breakaway goal right for a half time. So Liever Kusin was chasing the whole second half, but they dominated this game. They've been playing pretty well in the Bundesliga. They've won five to the last six since losing that match to

22:09Olympiacos. They've been one of the better teams in the Bundesliga defensively. So I would take Liever Kusin to win. I think this is a real nice price. I have it at plus 185. I've seen that number still out there this morning. So yeah, give me the better team on a really good price, even on the road because they dominated the first matchup. I don't see why they won't dominate this one as well. He is Paul Carr. He can find him true sports media expected value podcasts and at Paul Carr over there on the tournament. She can Paul appreciate the time and good luck, man. You bet. Carabag. Let's go. There we go. Carabag. I'm finding a goal score by the end of the show. Yeah, I'm in. I love it, buddy. I'm going to find their best goal score and I'm going to bet him. Let the, let the, let the rumors begin. Both teams to score. Tyree Kill to the Ravens getting floated. Okay. Now that that might be a reason to get Lamar Jackson to sign an extension there in Baltimore. All right. To get him a Tyree Kill. But you don't know what Tyree Kill you're getting. He's 32 coming off a horrible leg injury. Right. I don't know. Are you

23:11getting him on a cheap deal? You know, like it's hard to argue that, right? If you do. If it's a cheap deal, then maybe so we're going to head to Riviera when we come back. Let's go country club. Numbers game on FESET. These scores betting network. Numbers game here on Vison Ready to talk a little golf, by the way. We will have our full podcast up later today. That would go in wherever you get your podcasts, search for long shots, subscribe, rate, review, or you can head to our new YouTube channel that has a weird app in the, in the name. That's right. You two at long shots. Vison or at Long Shotspot at Long Shots Vison. Yeah. Something that's at Long Shotspot. Just Long Shots Vsion on the, on the YouTube as well. Go in. We do appreciate you coming in there on that channel because, you know, you can see our faces and stuff. Not the one I thought it was. No, boy. Peter Nader. Apparently he's a, he's the one who

24:16stole our, our handle. Yeah. Hey, if you're out there, hey, Peter, can we have our, can we have the handle? So we don't have to put a, we don't have to put a hat symbol in our thing. I don't think this is going to shock anybody, but a very political playlist he has set up. Oh, Peter. Yeah, if you want to, if you want to do that, we would, we would appreciate it. Yeah, it's basically that was coming from Ian Rapp report, basically saying, you know, that maybe this was, oh, never mind. That was, uh, that was coming from pro football talk that maybe that would be the thing that could get Lamar Jackson feeling comfortable to sign a long-term deal there in Baltimore and other, some people who go and what do you really won't Lamar Jackson signing a long-term deal there in Baltimore and Kelly, my response to that would be we just talked about how bad the quarterback play is in the NFL right now. Yeah. We just talked about who might be getting jobs in the NFL right now. No matter what you think about Lamar Jackson, he is by far the best option you're going to have. It's not, yeah, it's really, it's, it's what you have to, like you have to try. Yeah, you have to, yes, I'm one of those people that thinks as soon as Lamar

25:20Jackson starts to look old, it's going to go bad real quick because you take away his legs. I've got serious concerns about what he is in the NFL right, but he's, but you have to while he still has anything yet, like you said, there's a lot of bad quarterbacks around. Yeah, you're going to gladly, you're going to, you're going to squeeze everything out of that one. Let's put it this way. If you're a Pittsburgh fan, you're like hoping that Aaron Rogers comes back. I mean, you know, I mean, like that could be the situation you're in. You're at least not in that situation for decades. Yeah. So just, you know, and what does even long term mean at this point for Lamar? I mean, maybe that's a four year deal, you know, I mean, you know, maybe maybe that's a four year deal. And if it's a four year deal, you probably still have two good, really good years left in him. The third year, like you said, maybe starts to look a little, a little worse and then you're out of it after the fourth one anyway. This, I know the crew is keeping us updated. Can't believe there's quotes about this already. Oh boy, but USA men's curling team goes down to China. Apparently, they had one bad end. Oh, well, that's, so that's it. That's all you need.

26:20One close and then one bad end. One bad end. I'll just, you know, that'll, that'll do it. I'll take you down. Apparently, 10 ends, by the way. Yes, it's a hockey. I mean, I'll end the curling match. So if I, if they, if the US blew another one, you think I can just mark my over 12 and a half gold medals as an L. Drew was already not feeling great about it. It seems as if, yeah, if indefinitely if our ladies blow the hockey, best part of that conversation, everybody listening best because it was, it was when we first brought on Drew and I was having him grade one of the other bets that I had made. And it was about one of the skiers and whether he was going to medal or not. Oh, and he thought he said yes. And instead of it's only one silver, but it was in a different event than I bet where he finished fourth in, not a medal, not no medal for fourth place. Fourth, you do not, you don't even get a ribbon. Yeah, much, much less, much less metal. I got to talk off here in a second, but a reminder, originally baseball season right around the corner, we put out the baseball betting guide way, way earlier this year to make

27:22sure that you have a chance to get in on top of some of these numbers. Because again, there are people who are paying attention and you want to make sure that you're getting the best of the number. The general public hasn't started yet, but we certainly are talking about it here on the network, visa.com slash subscribe as little as 999. And if you want to go ahead and do that, it's going to we say always shop around shop around. So you get a, you get a whole month for 999. If you come in and that includes a betting guide, so do that visa.com slash subscribe, they get you all the bets, they get you AI powered props, the matchup tools, the video feed, the replays, all of that included here for just 999. Come in, give us a shot over at visa.com. slash subscribe, get that majorly baseball betting guide. It's out early. I'm pumped. This is, you usually say it during the summer that the college football one is the biggest one for you. And it is, it's college football and baseball for me. And when I get an email, like I got from Adam Burke this morning with the passion behind it, I can tell this is, this is going to be a home run. I mean, definitely did. Listen, you know, they put their blood sweat and tears in it. They didn't even want my opinion. I was like, hey, do you need help with that? He's like, no,

28:25they're good. Yeah, he's like, no, Adam and Jensen, man, I thought I missed an email. Like, seriously, so I just like texted him like last week and I go, hey, did I miss an email about like contributing to that? So he's like, no, you're good. We didn't need your opinion. You're like, all right. Sounds good. Appreciate it. Glad you got me. You put a lot of work, man. So good at it. But it is definitely though, listen, here's the thing. There's a lot of movement. Go in. Big name players are playing for different teams. Yeah. You know, find out where everyone's playing, just like have the general knowledge heading into the season at the very least. And maybe it'll lead you to a bet. You know, maybe you want to tell some of the bets that are in there. It'll at least give you the knowledge to go into the season, not feeling like you're, you're alone. Yes. Because listen, it's 30 teams made up of a whole bunch of different pictures and whatever in all of them. Who's the guy's going to get called up? And is it who's the hot prospect and all the different things like that? And like very tough to keep up with killing. But let's not waste any further time. And again, we'll just kind of give you overview thoughts here. If you want the detailed breakdown that'll come to you a little bit later. But here on a Tuesday, let's go,

29:25country club. That's it. Oh, not a lie. I ought to call it glow sticks. They're no longer glow sticks. They're light savers. They're more light savers than they are than they are glow sticks. So there's Larry. So you're going to go with light savers here moving forward. It's at least it's a light stick more than it is a glow stick. Okay. So Brian M. Tweeten, he's bet he bet Camilo Doran for Carabagascore scored in the last two champions league game. Love it. Larry's working on one for me. See left footer right footed. Don't care. All right. Don't care. How many lefties are there in soccer? Messies left footed. That's right. So there's that good call. I actually can't wait. Good job. We did a good job with soccer today. Look at that. Well, tap out me coming out of nowhere with Messies left footed. Yo, I should have known that. I mean, I didn't know that. Good answer.

30:26Okay. So again, we are over at Riviera. This is one of the, I mean, I'm talking one of the best courses on tour in my personal opinion. I love Riv. I think it is amazing to watch. I love the way that the course is set up. You're looking at a signature event. 72 players. 50 and ties make the cut in anybody within 10. So in theory, could be the whole field likely. Won't be we still haven't seen that come into play yet. Right? Yeah. Okay. The we had one of these were only five guys got cut, but still we had a cut. So yeah. So we did have one of these ties. Yeah. So we did have one or only five guys got cut, but yeah, it is. It is not come in where the entire field makes it yet anyway. This played last year at Torrey. So again, throw away the stats from last year. We're playing at about a little over 7,300 yards with this one, par 71. We get the three part. We get the, we get the three par fives in the 11 par four. So you get the cacooia fairways, cacooia rough cacooia. So if anybody's wondering about

31:28that, the cacooia is a very interesting type of grass that we don't see a ton on the PGA tour. It can give you weird lies all over the place. The grass is kind of watery and a little bit can almost be wrap around the ball, depending on how hard it falls into the rough. So while it says only two inch rough, it doesn't really matter because the ball might can actually get engulfed anyway inside of this rough, creating really tough ways to get out of it. Flyers, if it hits on, if it sits on top, but there's still some grass in between the club and the ball. So trying to keep it in the fairway as always, but I mean, even more here is certainly going to be something that these guys are going to be trying to do. There's no water, 58 bunkers. The bunkers are pretty penal. And so Kelly, what we're looking at here is, is of course, straight pure where, we're not going to see many penalties because there's no water. And like you would really, you just have to spray it out of bounds, you know, if, well, in way out of bounds, if you're going to get, if you're going to get a penalty on this one, but the, the really and truly, this is just a tough golf course that that's the test. The test is the layout, the test is the greens that are going

32:31to be firm and fast that have runoffs that have false fronts that have whatever. I mean, this is like a true test of golf and almost disappear as form where you just got to go out and be the course that you're not going to lose a stroke by hitting in the water, but you might lose one by hitting in a bunker. Yeah, the bunkers are tough. Yeah, absolutely. You could. And this is just going to, look, this is one basically the first event we're going to talk about wherever every club in the bag is testing, right? It is, you'll see 33 yard fairways that that's not too, too, too narrow, but these are designed. These holes were these pinch kind of 300-ish yards down at almost all so you're really, you're going to hear a lot about big drivers that's kind of where I, where I started as well, Matt, that's where I think you absolutely need some distance here off the tee. The rough and the fairway like you talked about can be tricky, but it's not overly long grass so you can have mixed results getting out of the rough here. You're talking about big greens. You're talking about big greens, but we see a lot of them missed every single year and around the green, sand, saves, scrambling. It usually makes a difference at this event. And yeah, between the

33:36traps and weather and be careful with the weather, it's another week where you're going to want to have your eyes on that. It didn't look like anything horrific the first two days from what I looked at yesterday, but it is, you know, bad weather in Southern California right now. So it's something to keep an eye on. Yeah, par five scoring and other one of things you want to put in your model as you make that up because you got to score on the three par five here. They're the only holes that actually don't play over par. I mean, it's a tough course. It is going to get after everybody here. If you want to, if you want a horse for a course, it might not be in the greatest form in the world, but Max Homa has had a ton of success at Riviera. Put a ball in this and we'll come back. Numbers game on FESEN. These sports betting network.

34:37Numbers game here on Bison. These sports betting network. Matt Brown, Kelly Biblin. Updates your little intro video. Yeah, we've heard that from a few people. Was there anything different about that studio studio? Yeah, I mean, a hundred pounds. The one that's the one that's on there like eight the current you. Like there's that. So I just slightly there's the one that like eight the current you that's on there. Like that one got like stung by all the things and had all the allergic reactions. Instead, here you are. Stung by all the things. Look at you. Look at you. Just looking. I mean, unbelievable. I mean, look at this right here. Thanks, man. I mean, come on. I appreciate you. Okay. So we're sitting here trying to decide how to bet a 72 person event that has Scottie Sheffler. We're have, you know, the full thoughts again on the podcast a little bit later, but the odds board reflects that he is going to do what Scottie Sheffler does

35:42more times than not it in and Kelly, you go in and you plug in everything and like we say this every week on the pod. And honestly, it's I'm going to keep driving at home because I don't think people truly appreciate what's going on with Scottie Sheffler right now. But every single version of every model you run, no matter how you tweak, no matter what you do, if you bring it out to 100 rounds, if you bring it into 50 rounds, you bring it into 20 rounds. Every single tweak you try to put in there to make it to where he's not going to come out on top. He comes out on top and he comes out on top by a lot because he has been that dude for that long now. And we have enough sample size from last year where he actually learned how to put where he no longer falls if you even include putting in your model where, you know, at least last year when he was still having a little bit of struggle putting, you could, because you're drawing off of the, you know, some previous season stuff and things like that, where yeah, you could tweak a model enough if you added enough putting in that he might fall to

36:45second or something or third, but it didn't even do that anymore. And so, you know, you get him plus three 20 and it's very tough to argue. We've seen what he's done the last couple of weeks. Yeah, he had two bad opening rounds and then he was the best player in the field for the next three days. He just put himself in a bad situation on that on that day one where he wasn't able to come all the way back one stroke out of a playoff two weeks ago and two strokes off this one. I don't expect him to do it again, but you know, I mean, he has done it two weeks in a row. I mean, you're talking if he, if he shoots average in those first rounds the last two weeks, he's one three tournaments in a row. Yeah, that's what that's what we're talking about with Scotty Shuffle. So yeah, it is a, with these signature events in these condensed fields, you've got to get used to kind of the odds boards and sorting through this. I think I expect to look, what Scotty's number if he wins one of the last two weeks, right? Or the both of the past two weeks. Hey, it's much, it's much shorter than three 20 or three 40, whatever you're seeing out there.

37:48Best numbers and obviously shop around. So yeah, I think there'll be some Shuffle of this week. I think that's understandable. And yeah, man, once we get down to it, like, look, this is, this is going to be, you're going to hear a lot about, a lot about the driver, but this is going to be such a heavy approach. Of course, that's going to matter. It's really every club in the bag. So who are you confident with this week early betting that Rory's numbers come down, which I don't know. I think he's an interesting case from last week. I don't really know what to make of his game from last week. There's a lot of good and there was a few. Look, what do you get down the hole? So he's getting bad. I know that was 1415 to one. I saw all the way down to like 11 to one. I think it fanned all this morning. So he's getting better. There'll be some popular names in that mid range. And we'll have it all later on. Yeah, I mean, I think that if you look at, if you look at what we have found important, I think I think a lot of people maybe came to the same conclusion where we are going to be looking at dudes that have at least a decent amount of distance. And you know, with that, Rory's going to always gravitate towards the top, right? I mean, nobody drives the ball like Rory does. And I think that can certainly play here,

38:49especially if we do get some wet conditions, which it seems like we will this. I mean, we got a bunch of rain here yesterday, which obviously has to come from the west and all that. And so like softer conditions are going to make me have to rerun a model. And when we come in here tomorrow, I might even have an additional play that we don't even talk about on long shots or something because I think that there is even more emphasis on me with driving distance with how long these guys can carry the ball and all of that because it's tough course, man. And if it's going to play super soft, the 90 dudes that are going to be poking it out there and guys that can give me better shots into the better shots in the green. So with that, again, like I said, we'll see what the weather does today. We'll get the weather report coming out of today. What people are talking about during the practice rounds today. That's the other thing. We'll have journalists walking the grounds today. So we'll start to get better ideas of what's going to what it's going to look like out there. But it is, I will say this, there are dudes that are dead

39:52in this tournament. So even though there's 72 people like Brian Campbell is dead. Lucas Glover is dead. Michael Kim, Tom Kim, dead. Like like whatever. So like these dudes like it's 72, but it is not 72. It is 72. There's more like 58. Like there is a zero percent chance. If you go into so one of the stats, one of those stats sites that we use a ton, you'll hear us talk about data golf all year long. If you go, their odds on Brian Campbell is listed as infinity for him to win this tournament. Even at draft Kings, he's 1300 to one. Yeah. It's listed as infinity for him to win this. That's fantastic. He, this is no joke. And like this is, I'm bad at golf, but I mean, but I hit it a long way. I'm longer off the team than Brian Campbell is. And he's a professional golf. I like that there's more. Well, I like that we've done multiple shows with Matt Brown just crapping on Brian Campbell over the past. But the thing is, it's like, it does give you an idea, though, of kind of like, you know, who's like that? Yeah. And if you're sitting here and you're

40:54looking, you're calling, man, I don't want to pay. Dude, I'm only getting whatever. This is just an example. Man, I'm only getting 22 on Tommy Fleetwood. I can't really like him as we, but it's only 22. Yeah, because he's really only going up against 55 guys. It's like he's, it's, there's not, there's not 72 of these guys cannot win this tournament, not at rift. This, this course is, this course is too tough. They are not going to be able to navigate this course with their skills. Yeah, I do think there is something of, you know, bombing gouge. I don't, let's say it's a true bombing gouge strategy, right? But it's the, you often bring this up on the pod. If you're in the rough at what you're always kind of what you're, you're either always have less distance coveted, right? You're going to be able to hit a high, high lofted club into the greens. And these are, look, these are the second, second biggest greens on tour, second biggest greens on tour. They have like a 50% green and regulation rate, though. Like this is, they're hard to hold. A lot of it is because of the grass that we're talking about, and that Matt talked about last segment. But that's, yeah, I'm looking for distance this week. That's going to be fairly important to me.

41:55Otherwise, it's got to be stellar approach players. And you can kind of notice, I mean, bubble bombed it, Dustin Johnson back in the day, bombed it, JB Holmes is a bomber. You know, I mean, John Rom, bomber. Third most predict, of course, history by the way, a couple weeks in a row, where I factor that in more than I have an in recent model. So yeah, you're just going through the list. It is most of these names over the last 10 years long off the tee and or like top tier approach players. Yeah. Uh, you had no bets today, right? I had no bets today because we're not betting the Olympics. Yeah. So nothing, nothing for us there. I was, I'm trying to find that calves one. Uh, I'm, I'm going to be on that calves best record after all star break. Okay. I got to figure out where I'm betting that, but I am betting that. Uh, Gil's got a couple tennis bets Delray Beach open. Hopefully he's just been hanging out him in a old Marin chillich there. Moneyline plus one 31 chillin with chillich plus one 31 against Brandon Nakashima and ATB Doha Quentin, Alice, Moneyline minus one 15 against Pablo, Kereno, Booster. That's what I'm going to go with.

42:58Okay. We got Matt Cox College basketball today in New Mexico, laying 27 and a half points against Air Force Akron, laying 14 at Western Michigan Ball State, catching nine and a half at Ohio and South Eastern Missouri State Moneyline plus one 24 at UT Martin. Um, do we have Jake, uh, Jake like the goals with Latvia said he thought they could hang with Sweden. Yeah. So he liked that. And he said Lucas Raymond anytime goal there in that game as well. Good job, Matt Brown. Uh, a couple from Drew Dinsick, but he kind of hinted at these calves tend to want to win the central division. You talked about that earlier. He also liked that Cavaliers most wins after the all star break. Um, just just a heads up for everybody out there. That is something I'm going to be betting sounds like he was high on as well. Matt has pointed out multiple times over the past week. What this team has going on as far as champions league with Mr. Polcar today, he had one for today

43:59and then a couple for tomorrow Benfica double chance. Uh, he had minus one 15. He said he had got this and gotten out to like minus one 35. He said cut it off at minus one 30. He didn't like that price going any steeper than that tomorrow. Keterabad Newcastle. Hey, nailed it. Uh, and Larry, Larry got me a goal score. Uh, Abdelazou beer. That's where we're going to go. Uh, that's who we're going to go with. I'm about that six to one anytime goals. And he likes, uh, lever coosin. lever coosin. Yeah, from the boon. See what I did that. I did them purpose that time to get you to see it. I mean, lever coosin to win over at Olympiacos. That's a plus one 85 there on that one. So there are sure. Biancos probably sure odds for Jonas next team. Uh, look at you. Look at you. Look at you. Look at what you did there. Yeah. But again, we will, uh, we'll have a full golf preview for you a little bit later today. So go in, subscribe, rate review, wherever you get all of that. And of course, we'll get in here tomorrow, maybe have some other thoughts here. Don't go anywhere. Prop points coming up. Joe, she ain't going to be on the show money moves and then follow the money after that.