A Numbers Game | February 17, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00This is B.S.N.D.S. The SportsBetting Network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill Abysander on B.S.N. A numbers game here on B.S.N.D.S. SportsBetting Network, Matt Brownkelli, Bidlin. Appreciate you guys being with us. SirChannel 158, YouTube TV. Our very own recent watch app and terrestrial stations across this great country of ours. There are a lot of NFL talk here this morning on the old Twitter machine. What else we got? Just people speculating. People talking about where they would like to still to where they would like to stay. Deandre Swift said he would like to stay with the bears. Basically kind of saying like, hey, I think that checks out. I'll take a sweetheart deal almost. I'd want to stay in that offense too. That's not made that public. And our very own Steve Cohen walking in here. Dropping Malik Willis to the dolphins on us.

1:00Then the other Steve Cohen, the guy that might have a few more zeros in his bank account than our Steve Cohen. We don't know. Talking about how basically he's like, yeah, you know, I see what the Dodgers are doing. They're spending a bunch of money. He's like, guess what? I can too, he basically said. Was this in the conti- was that a continuation of the odd, I don't even call it a press conference or the interview we get in the dugout, right? Did you see that yesterday? Yeah. And him going crazy about not naming a captain ever? Yes. As long as he owns the team. As long as he owns the team. Was that like, was that a thing? Did that come from somewhere? No, I don't. Seems like a harsh reaction to something I didn't know people were like asking about. And also why? I mean, like, what's the why? Who cares? I don't know. So that's what matters like. I'm the captain. Because I am the captain. I assume that we're respectful. That answer.

2:00No team captain, I've been charged. So the NBA will resume play enough. It's only been a few days. It feels like it's been three weeks. Yeah. Did they hadn't played anything? But they will resume play here in two days. And we were discussing yesterday about what maybe we could do for people that have not really paid attention to the season up or who bets out there that are still available. That if you decide you wanted to have something to sweat for the last 27, 28, 29 games, depending on how many games your team has left, then we were at least wanted to give you the options. And so it was kind of a fun exercise for me actually going through and looking at what was still available out there. Honestly, one of the bets that is available, one of the first ones that is on my list, Kelly, is actually at a better number than the thing that I bet. I actually have this bet in my account. You can get a better number than I got it. What you got? Start with that one. Yeah. The Cavs to win the Central Division. Okay. I bet that at 950, it is 10 to 1 now over at DraftKings. So you can get 10 to 1 on the Cavs to win the Central Division.

3:00If you kind of want to look at this, they do have the fifth easiest remaining schedule in all of the NBA. Their opponents have but a 47% win percentage on the season. And as we know, some of those opponents might even have more incentive to lose games down the stretch as we get there. And the pistons actually had the seventh toughest schedule remaining. They are actually facing teams down the stretch here that are 51% on the season. And they actually get the pistons head to head twice. So if you are trailing a team by seven games, having an easier schedule and getting to play them twice, where you could instantly make up two games is a big thing. So again, at 10 to 1, does this happen one out of 10 times, Kelly? I think it does. So I thought that that was a good win if people wanted to kind of drop in, have a sweat for the last 27 games of the year. And it's a fun team to sweat anyway. So it's a fun sweat regardless. Yeah, this is like there's there's really not any on your list that you're going to get an argument out of me from. So I guess that's a little boring. I considered this bet like a week in a week and a half ago.

4:02It's it's going to be tight. It's tight, but it's a fun gamble for the rest. I would be shocked if the Cavs don't close that gap with the pistons. But you're far back, right? You are. I mean, it's seven games back. It's seven games back with what 20 something to play. Well, it's kind of like I'm the way that I did the math in my head. And the only way it really gets home is so you're it's a must. You have to sweep them. And then so your five games, but you have to make up five games elsewhere. It's basically what it comes down to and in my opinion. Yeah. Look, I think it's live. I think I'd want a little bit better number. But it's it's yeah. I they will close the gap. I would be shocked if we're talking about the Cavaliers being seven games back. Other pistons at the end of the season. So what's what's the first one on your list? I'll go one for one. Yeah, I would do that. You know, I brought this up on the show's a couple times already. So I will not go crazy long with it. But Blazers, I kind of prioritize mine. Although I'd switch something right now where I got five out there. You'll see if you're watching at home. I trailblazers over 40 and a half wins, though. Not going to spend a ton of time on this because it brought this up last week.

5:03Probably up the week before. I just can't get away from it. It is still 50 54 games played for Portland. They got 26 remaining. I think one of the easiest things to just say is, OK, they got the easiest remaining strength of schedule. But like you hinted at two, it's diving into looking at who they're playing. You got eight games left against those kind of six tanking teams that we isolated last week. And their team is playing good basketball right now. As long as Danny obvious in the lineup, they're they're a look for me almost on a nightly basis. So Blazers, it really has not moved much. I bet that 39 and a half, about three weeks ago, we're up to 40 and a half. I've seen a 40. I saw a 41 and a half at draft games, 20 to 40 and a half available. We talked about it. Well, we mentioned this a little bit yesterday. And I think if this year, if you're kind of again parachuting in and you want a fun sweat, is there anything better than to be backing Wimby right now? I mean, in backing this spurs team and going in on a nightly basis and being able to watch them and know that you have a ticket available on them to win the Western Congress. It's not going to be easy, Kelly Bidlin, but it is eight and a half to one still out there.

6:03By the way, this is getting better at other books. This is it. This is this number. Was it draft Kings? It's six and a half over at Fandall. It's seven at bet three six five at an MGM. It is just a flat eight. So they're starting to get a little bit of love for this for this market at other books. Yeah, this is this is an interesting one. I mean, we're talking like look. Okay. My heart says the nuggets with win the West's said that since I was sweating Oklahoma city it's under tickets all through the playoffs last year. The thunder aren't going anywhere. They'll get healthy. They're going to be great. Should the spurs odds be this much longer than where like the nuggets are at? Probably not. Right. It's hard for me. Hard to get a fight out of it. Yeah, it's kind of a it is kind of a miniature number play because I mean, I think it's probably closer to where it is at Fandall six and a half as opposed to eight and a half. And so eight and a half is a really good number in my opinion. Also, I think there's going to be a lot made of this once we get to the playoffs about the inexperience on both Detroit and San Antonio. It will be fair. I think that the teams that they're going to have to go through.

7:03It's it's it's a tough it's a tough ask, right? Do I kind of believe in the spurs more than the Detroit pistons though? Yeah, I do. I mean, it's Victor. You just can't you can't put a ceiling on what this guy can do. Yeah, you just can't. Exactly. What you got in there. All right. Next up for me. I you know, I'm going to I'll bang out a couple of these real quaffes of playoff scene markets, which I really looked into too much. And this is goes back. We bring this up all the time, right? Matt, like look to make a bet in a different way. Is there a way you can bet on a team or against a team in a different market? So the first one you're going to see on here, Celtics over three and a half on their playoff scene, right? So they're going to be finishing with the four seat or worse is what my bet is here. This isn't as much about fading the Celtics to me. This is about being high on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Right. Like you are down this stretch. You talked about that already. And then the next that I just can't I can't get over. They still think the nicks have the best collection of talent in the Eastern conference. And I think we're going to see that play out here down the stretching to the playoffs. They would still be my pick to win the east.

8:04So where we're at in the standings. You're talking about Boston is in the two seat right now, five and half back from the pistons. Then it's the nicks six games back, calves seven games back. There's only one and a half games between where the calves are out where the Celtics are at. I think we could easily see down the stretch here. Boston just fall back. It doesn't mean that they're bad. It doesn't mean that they're having a bad second half, but it plus one twenty five. That's better than playing the under on the calves. Caves were nicks marks. So plus one twenty five on the over on the Celtics. I like that. I played the nuggets under fifty two and a half wins at small plus money at plus one oh five. It is the toughest schedule remaining in the NBA. We're talking three against the thunder three against the spurs two against the Lakers. A game with the rockets, a game with the nicks, a game with the Celtics, all still remaining. And in the back of my mind, something that you said a couple of days yesterday here on the program two. It looks like it looks like Yochitch is about eighty five percent. It's not like he's all the way back in that he's all the way playing fully healthy and stuff.

9:08We're asking him to win eighteen more games of their remaining games with all of those that are still remaining on the schedule. And probably, you know, you drop one here and there that you're not supposed to. This isn't a team that goes on just thumps everybody every night. I just thought it's at the small plus money given what they're up against. And given the fact that I don't think Yochitch is a hundred percent yet. Eighteen more wins is a fairly daunting task and now, you know, at plus money, I'll take it. I mean, Aaron Corden paid watch and still out of the lineup, right? And they will be for a while here. I do think I'm not really concerned about what we see out of the thunder nuggets once we get in the post. But man, like this is, I think it's being glossed over a little bit of just how much these teams have had battle through this year. We've always talked about the thunder being so deep. They've been so injured this year. It's incredible. Let's also think about this just really quick is that is that there's six and a half back of the thunder. And it's like if that gap happens to grow a little bit because you lose a couple of these head to heads with them and different stuff like that. You might see them maybe try to get Yochitch a little bit of rest, a little bit, you know, not playing max minutes every single game.

10:16No, no, yes. I think that's the way to put it. Yeah. I think it's kind of not like rest him rest him. I mean, like, you know, like just just basically like not playing in max minutes. I think we've, I think there's a lot we can talk about every week and every day about what the NBA has done right of what it's done wrong. I think that you're seeing whether you like it or not, the 65 game rule played out with Yochitch. I think this is a perfect sample where it's I think he's coming back a little to a little. I don't want to say too early, but he's coming back early, right? I think he's struggling. He's not fully an NBA for me or the form that he's used to being in, right? I think that's completely fair in it. Yeah. It might be dial back on minutes. I know I think he's playing every game. No, playing, but you know, like if you're, if you're, if you're, if you're up a lot or down a lot or whatever, anything like that and stuff that like you're not just keeping him out there to keep him out there. Yeah. Well, cruise this into the next segment too. I want to go through the 76ers. I played the under on their six and a half. I think this is my second favorite bet. I did try to prioritize this. I do like this better than the Celtics play actually. I just don't see how they fall out of this top six. Look, I'm developing a sixers problem here with how, with how I've seen Joel and Pete play recently.

11:21Because I really didn't think we were going to see that Joel and Pete ever again. And he is looking like the Joel and Pete of old with this young back court. I think there's a lot of talent here. They've got a semi easy schedule. Ninth easiest remaining in the NBA. I just, it's just more about who's going to push them. I think they can easily pass Toronto. We're going to talk about Charlotte. You're going to hear a lot of that. Can they truly catch up to where Philadelphia's that now played them the rest of the way? I, I got questions. I like under six and a half. One more for me. Two more from Kelly here on the other side. And we will finally get to that in at least. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Vincent Pro gives you access to the same real time insights. The sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit.

12:21With. Vincent Pro. A numbers game on. Vincent. These sports betting network. Numbers game here on. Vincent. These sports betting network. Continuing on with our. If you wanted to drop in and add a couple of NBA bets to your portfolio. Just something to sweat out for the rest of the season. As we do the stretch as well. Braun put it where they're done with we're done with the marathon part. And now it's the sprint part killing. That's right of the of the schedule. He said also in his little press conference. He does not know what he's going to do. Next season. He also said that he feels very good about this team when they're all healthy. But they've only played 10 games together. All healthy. This season. So I think all things are true. I believe he doesn't know what he's going to do because I think what happens this. If they win championship, which I don't think they will. But if they win the champion, he's done.

13:21Like he's like walking out on top. Yeah, I agree. I agree. They get bounced in the first round. Maybe he goes and tries to find one last hurrah and Cleveland or my whatever. Somewhere in New York, whatever. You know, I don't really know that I was ever. I was ever on that page until now. Like I think you know that it's kind of sad. But like you also just don't know. Nobody ever expects a guy of his greatness to play to this age. Right. And you also don't expect for the Dallas Mavericks GM to call you up one night and tell you that Luca Donge is just available. Right. And that happens to the Lakers or they need to shift this roster around Luca and start thinking about what the next five years and next 10 years and what this franchise looks like. And yeah, I think Lebron. I think Lebron is all of a sudden feeling like, yeah, this is the first time my career plans are not around me. And this is a little tough and annoying. And you know, you kind of look at this and you're saying, why are you saying maybe Cleveland or New York or whatever. Something like that.

14:21I just with the money invested in Luca with what they're going to do. I don't think they want to pay Lebron 50 million again. He's making 52 and a half this year, by the way. Here's the thing that I'm kind of making this face off to the side because it's just some of these questions are actually real simple. It's it's, you know, hey, Yannis, you want to say everything you want to say. There's an extension on the table signing. You know, it's just, you can sign it at any time. The bugs are not going to argue. No, I don't think anybody's paying Lebron, Lebron shapes that, right? So it's, look, any team we want to talk about is in play because it's probably Lebron taking a near vet minimum deal to continue to play in the NBA. Yeah. And that's why I even bring up, that's why I bring up the Knicks and why I bring up. But because like he might look at that team and go, okay, I'll play for 20 whatever I'll do for 15. You know, going to New York for Lebron, the endorsements alone would bring him another 50, it doesn't matter. Like that, that's, that's just found money for him. So it's one more chance of the championship while you do a farewell tour with, you know, what's one of the greatest franchises out there?

15:25Exactly. Yeah, something like that. But again, as we sit right now, like there's 35 to one to win it all should, like I said, they do that at 35 to one. I think that's the last we see Lebron James in a basketball uniform. I, you know what though? I will say for this, they, 33 and 21 on the season. This team is right up there with the San Antonio Spurs of teams. Kelly was way off on to begin the season. I, I had unders on both of them. Lakers, I still can't figure it out. And I think the Lakers, it's just, and they're doing it. Like I said, the, the, the big three I'm making there with the big 10 games together. Yeah. All year. I mean, Reeves has been out for a while. I've been getting him back. It's going to be awesome for them. I believe in the roster construction around Luke. I think Dallas had finally gotten to that point where they had kind of figured that out right before they set him away. Um, you know, just having that quality lob threat defense around him. And it's just not how the teams constructed. I don't think they go far in the playoffs. But man, tip of the cap, just store power, win and regular season basketball. All right. You got to coach it to your bed. And then one more division bet. Yes, I do.

16:25Yeah. Brought this up a couple of times as well. So I will go quickly through this one. Jordan, this is more of a number play. Yes. I pick her staff. It deserves obviously to be in this conversation. The piston sit where they are. Um, if you possibly end up with the best record in the NBA, he's probably winning this. But I think over four to one, like, to me, it's just Phoenix. I think it's the market. I think it's just not being talked about enough. Like this team shipped off Kevin Durant, they had a preseason win total of 30 and a half. And right now they're sitting in the Western conference playoff picture at the seven seed. You'd easily get into the top six. This is a heck of a story. I, Jordan, I think he's doing amazing things down there with, with talent that nobody expected. I, it's just, if Dylan Brooks having the best year of his career offensively, right? Colin Gillespie. Nobody thought was going to be a thing over four to one. He, Jordan, not to my coach of the year. Say, yeah, maybe I'm betting a little bit with my heart here. Uh, but I think this price should be way closer to bigger staff. And then, yeah, my last one real quick. Uh, we brought up a couple of times past couple of weeks.

17:26He's kind of like your calves bet. Uh, Matt, this is going to be only differences. You're going up against one team, really, right? I'm going up in this old divisions wide open, but man, it really is. It's hard to believe in the Atlanta Hawks, the Miami Heat or the Orlando Magic right now. And Hornets have been the arguably the best team in the NBA since January 1st. Can they keep it going? I have my doubts, but man, four to one. They're the best team in that division right now. They got the ground to make up, but they are the best team in that division. I added in the bucks to get into the play in in Kelly. Look, I mean, they are, this is a, this is a, this is a Yannis handicap. He says he's coming back to play. I, there's no reason for me to believe that he's lying. So I just have to believe that he's going to come back and play. If he doesn't, then this is a stupid bet. But plus five 50 right now, they're, they're a game and a half out. I mean, they literally only have to like claw back in over the Hawks and they're tied with the bulls right now. And if you're Hornets, don't play as well. Right. You know, maybe they could even climb in with all of that. But I mean, the fact that they've even gotten to where they're at, missing in Gannis as much as they have,

18:29you know, again, can they, are they a four, are they a plus four or five win team? If you want to get back in lineup, definitely, you know, and so again, it's plus five 50. It's all based on whether you're honest. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's going to be fascinating to see how they handle that situation. Yeah. By the way, they do have the 11th easiest schedule remaining as well. So that is at least in play for them if they want to, if they want to try and, you know, try and get back into the playoffs. But who knows? Maybe it's maybe it's not their best interest. And if they know he's gone for sure in the off season, then maybe they say, you know what, buddy, you can just take the rest of the rest of your off. Yeah. We don't care. Yeah. It's all, it's all fascinating to me because you're probably thinking, yeah, I think they're going to look for any reason to kind of shut him down. Just were a marvelous, but what's changed? Like, you went into the season and you were like, hey, we have the best, we have the best player in the Eastern Conference. We think that's good enough alone to at least put us into this, into this fight for the Eastern, for the East. If he's there, he's there. There's nothing that's changed from that standpoint. So I've got no walkie.

19:30We're going to talk about the Clippers a little bit tomorrow too. I think some of that's, I keep going back to what they did at the trade deadline. Just makes zero sense to me. Make the shift here to baseball. A quick reminder that our MLB guide is out right now over at visa.com slash guide going in. If you are a visa and pro subscriber, you get this puppy for free and go in and download it and get into it right now. We're going into all 30 teams, giving you a stats glossary of all those things that we talk about here on the network. These fancy words and terms and things like that. The advanced statistics Kelly. You know what we're talking about. They're batting average balls in play everybody visa.com slash guide real quick on the NL East. This is a super interesting division for me. One team, like we said, pre-punting on this season, the nationals and they should. They're not talented at all. They traded away. They're, they're their best pitcher in the offseason McKinsey Gore to the Rangers. So they're going to, they're going to lose and they're going to lose a bunch of games. They are one of the lowest win projections in all of Major League baseball. Now at the top of that is, is the Mets and they did go out and they spent some, some money as you can see.

20:31Plus 165 on your screen. If you're watching at home, plus 180 on the Phillies, plus 190 on the Braves. Marlon's way out of 40 to one. They're not going to be complete dormats, but they don't really have a chance. It is a big three there in L East. And honestly, it's going to come down to the health, I think, of the Phillies. And if it's not, then it could be a big two because the Phillies are a very old team. And they did hold up last year from a health perspective, which is why they were at least in the mix for as long as they were. But it's just a, when you get a team, we talked about some of these other previews. We don't Kelly. So many of these teams are early 20s mid 20s. And at the latest, they're kind of oldest old 20s. You know, use some of these teams that we were talking about. Didn't even have a 30 year old in the starting line. If that's just not the case for the Phillies, they rely on a bunch of older dudes to get it done. So that's going to be a health thing for them for sure. They lost Ranger Suarez, which is obviously never any good. And can they get anything out of a Dolos Garcia who used to be a power hitter? But, you know, he's, he's kind of falling off as well. You lost Pete Alonzo, if you're the Metz, but you did gain boba shit. So but the shit in Alonzo out, that's not a one for one by any stretch of the imagination.

21:34But you do at least get back a, a big bat and a big bat that's still fairly young. And in his prime with, with that. And then if you're on the Braves side of things, this is a team. So me on the Braves this year, because I feel like this has been one of those teams for the past three years, right? Every off season, it feels like there's a lot of love for you. You, you want me to sell you, except for the fact is that I, I kind of don't love him. Like Marcelo Zunas gone. It's, it's, it's a rotation. I don't love. They get a new injury last week in camp that's going to keep other guys out again. Like I just think this is one of those lineups that is probably going to be pretty good to be just a little bit above 500. But I don't think I actually really do like the Metz. I know this. Yeah, I actually really do like the Metz. And for the price that's given here, I don't think it's all that bad. I mean, the Phillies definitely could run on the right side of variance. And yet again, kind of dodge a catastrophic injury bug situation for a team that has said cannot afford to do that.

22:38But I'm going to play into the probability that they won't be able to Kelly Bidlin. And so since that's the case, I, I really do like the Metz here in this division. All right. Like a plus 165. Yeah, it should be fun. I was a little surprised at the Marlins 72 and a half wing total. All right. Might be with a little bit of life this year. It's kind of one of those things we're talking about. You know, Trey Turner's 33, Kyle Schwarber's 33, Bryce Harper's 33, Adolesk Garcia's 33, JT World Muto's 35. Like, that's the opposite of a lot of these teams that we've talked about. Right. We were literally talking about some of these teams that didn't have a single dude that was over the age of 30 in the starting lineup. So for me, going to go ahead and turn or 33. So you just said, yeah, man, I covered him playing high school baseball. Drew Dinsick on the other side. Numbers game on FISA, these sports betting network. Numbers game here on these Matt Kelly and waste no time heads straight to our next guest.

23:43Besprache off the slopes, overseas of Italy, Austria, take it in the skeleton and monobau. Phil Vergeless, never seen us. I've never seen a live monobau in my whole life. He has drew Dinsick at way I'll underscore capra over on Twitter machine. How you doing, buddy. I'm doing great, man. And honestly, the sliding center was the surprise like we're in Cortena. So we got tickets for and I was like. I thought it was going to be kind of silly, but it actually was thrilling. They give you so fan experience, a lot of opportunities to see them like kind of up on the wall, like coming around the big sweeping turns at the bottom, it was actually quite cool. So a hat tip to them for getting that constructed and making the fan experience cool. Curling awesome downhill skiing was obviously the crown jewel of the Olympics as far as the viewing experience goes. And we saw some good stuff. We saw the breezy Johnson take down gold for America in the downhill and then she opened

24:44the door for a second gold in that winning the women's combined first leg before Michaela Schiffer and just completely bottled the second leg. But yeah, it's been a tough Olympics for America. I was pretty confident that we were going to get our medal total at 12 and a half. That looks very, very unlikely at this point. In my count, we have left five likely golds on the field of play so far. We're probably going to land right around 10 chances for most goals pretty much gone. Like if we had gotten the five we should have at this point, we were sitting at 11. I would feel pretty good that we were going to be able to sneak our way into a win with 15 or so. But right now, I think we've got about four more left in us in terms of likely wins. So that'll be it. Those will be Ls. But my other two big positions, Germany under, as you can see on the medal count, they're not even in the top five right now. I honestly, I think they are at the top. They have five. But them getting to 13 golds is extremely unlikely at this point, even though they're going

25:46to win a lot of Bob sled gold. And then I have Swiss over five and a half that's going to make a break by medal bets because they're sitting at five and we need a sixth. Not sure where we're going to get it, but we hold our breath. Drew, I know we want to get to some NBA with you as well here. So Olympics, anything else, rest of the way, anything you're looking at today, any other kind of big futures that you're eyeing here for the rest of the way. It's kind of, but it's everything is really, really well priced right now. I would say so. It's going to be mostly just kind of holding breath and hoping that things break in favor of us. Some skin on some high likelihood stuff. The German Bob sled team is going to probably, for the men, they're probably going to win about three gold medals in the next couple of days. They're very, very, very solid. In the women's downhill, in the men's salon, the Kayla Schifrin's a pretty heavy minus favorite. I kind of almost want to take her on there. She is skiing really poorly so far in these games.

26:47Her giant salon was a huge disappointment yesterday or two days ago. And then as mentioned in the, in the combined her test skiing was just way too tentative to be considered this heavy of a favorite. So, you know, don't love going against her, but it's pretty clear that the pressure is kind of built up on some of our biggest names and they're not responding well to it. Drew, let's head over to the NBA and when as we kind of head down the stretch here, we start talking about the teams we actually think are good enough to get it done. Who's going to make a surge? Who's going to be that team that kind of comes out of nowhere? Who is the pretender out there? And it seems like to me everybody is landing on the pistons like nobody, you hear everybody talking about the Celtics, the Knicks, the Cal, like every, every other team gets talked about in the Eastern Conference except for the pistons who are five and a half games clear of the next closest team. What is your opinion of this of the squad? Uh, I think the calves can run him down in the central. If you want, if you want a long shot, that's kind of, I mean, I honestly didn't know

27:50that that was such sincere consensus makes me a little nervous. I've been consuming, I haven't been consuming a lot of US, you know, major sport media and content lately. So that kind of surprised, although I will say pistons trade deadline was a complete failure. They were clear in obvious ways that they could have addressed some of the limitations of this team. Get a second, you know, a second offensive, you know, reliable piece alongside King Cunningham. They elected not to do that. I think that was probably a pretty obvious mistake considering how weak the Eastern conferences and, uh, and now I think they're, you know, they're, they're kind of team that, uh, uh, that looks right for a, uh, a bit of a belly flop. Now there's two things also going on with the pistons. One, I, you know, obviously they have a couple of suspensions that they're going to have to get through with, uh, Durant and Stewart, uh, Stewart, most notably, uh, in terms of length of suspension coming out of the All Star Break. Um, normally I would just kind of shrug and be like, but I wrote these are short suspensions. But that stretch coming out of the All Star Break is, is absolute, uh, it's brutal.

28:54Like considering that they have an East Coast, you know, Eastern conference schedule overall is kind of wild that they're going to have to go through this, uh, gauntlet here in the next, uh, two weeks. So, um, yeah, we could blink and there could be kind of a two game gap between them and the Cavaliers. Right now I rate the Cavaliers, the better team, uh, just neutrally, um, and the Cavaliers have an extremely easy schedule on the way. And like, like I'm like phenomenally, uh, soft, I think anyone that watched the NBA in January and February probably noted a lack of intensity and effort, uh, at times, uh, the effort's been a bit inconsistent and has kind of determined a lot of game by game outcomes if you're betting sides, um, and, uh, and then right into the All Star Break, it was pretty clear that like the tank is on for a number of these teams, um, and, you know, so when I'm projecting wins going, you know, into the home stretch here, um, I'm not just adding up 85% when, when the Cavaliers played the jazz, right? Like it's, it's more like 100%, like there's pretty clearly, uh, you know, uh, that's kind

29:58of an outcome, um, where, you know, jazz could cover some games, uh, you know, some of these other, uh, tanking teams could cover some games, but they're certainly not going to win. Like the, the edict has been, you know, kind of decided from the top. I think put a lot of these teams in, uh, and in general, um, you know, you have to adjust your math accordingly when you're projecting win totals. Uh, I have the, um, thunder as your most likely wins on the way in, I'm projecting them to win about 21 more games, uh, between now and the end of the season and be your one seed in the west. Um, the market has them as like a few mungus favorite to win the most games on the way and then I think that's a little bit of, uh, uh, a, uh, attackable number, um, the thunder obviously are dealing with the number of injuries, uh, the thunder, uh, probably not going to deal with a threat for the one seed from the spurs, but maybe they will, um, their schedule is extremely difficult, uh, on the way and then there's definitely a world where they continue to use the rest of February and the beginning portion of March to get healthy

30:59before trying to put together solid, uh, you know, kind of playoff, uh, dress rehearsal performances and the last couple of weeks of March and into April. So, um, I think there's definitely a world where the thunder do still get the one seed, but it's a much smaller margin than the market realizes, um, and then the, the next group of teams led by the Cavaliers, the Celtics, the Rockets, uh, it's, you know, right on the heels of the thunder, I'm projecting all right about 20 wins on the way in, um, the two that stand out, as mentioned, the Cavaliers, just because of the way that I'm rating them relative to how we've seen them this season, their offense is so much stronger with harden involved, uh, and then the, uh, the Rockets actually have a surprisingly soft schedule on the way and, and are generally healthy enough, I think to make, uh, a decent case to move up the standings and, and potentially close with about 20 wins on the way in. So, um, yeah, I think the key, the name of the game, handicapping, uh, sort of expectations from here to the end of the season is really just evaluating straight the schedule, uh,

32:00adjusting for tanking teams, just fully waving the white flag in terms of winning games, uh, and then, uh, you know, seeing who's made the right moves at the deadline and, and who is going to be healthy and, and giving you full effort, uh, and the teams that rise for me are the Cavs in the Rockets, uh, as far as like long-term futures, um, I still think there's a black swan event where Tatum comes back and the Celtics are all the sudden minus 200 to in the east. I've got a lot of Celtics to in the east. I think the chances that we're seeing Celtics thunder in the finals is pretty high. Um, and, uh, I have a lot of thunder to win the title. So, uh, in a perfect world, uh, the Celtics get Tatum back with a month ago, get him up to full speed where he's carrying a load of 25, 28 minutes a game, uh, and, uh, you know, can win a relatively weak Eastern conference. Um, actually, in a perfect world, the Cavaliers just run rough shot through the rest of the regular season when every game, people believe in harden and the playoffs, and then we get great prices

33:00to bet against them. Um, but, uh, yeah, Celtics coming through the east feels possible to me, uh, thunder coming through the west feels very likely to mean, not really worried about any of the other, um, contenders in the west as far as best of seven series besides maybe the nuggets, but they don't look strong enough to me to, to really give the, uh, thunder more than a seven game series and, and ultimately I think thunder over Celtics will be our finals. Okay. I like it. You're real quick. Just a note, pistons, uh, next 14, what 16 days you've got the nicks, you got the spurs twice, you got the calves twice. So just going to what, uh, Drew said, Drew, real, real quick, you got about 20 seconds MVP. How do you see this thing playing out? I, I think it'll end up going to SGA, but, uh, it's certainly a lot less certain than I would have said the same thing in the beginning of December. Um, I don't have a good read on whether his injury, uh, that forced him to miss the all-star festivities was more of a precautionary or, or something to be concerned about. And there certainly has been no whispers or cloak and dagger stuff about, you know, real serious concerns.

34:03He has drew Dinsock deep dive podcast, NBC Sports Edge at Whale underscore capper off on the short of machine. Drew, appreciate it, buddy. They best look us. When we come back to the AFC South talk with me and kelp. Yeah. Numbers game on fee sent these sports betting network. Numbers game here on these sports betting network. If you were looking out there at the AL central and we're trying to find a long shot to win it. You probably were not going with the white socks. Maybe for whatever reason, you found yourself liking the twins. Well, this is coming through right now that Pablo Lopez has a torn elbow ligament and surgery is very much on the table. And with that, surgery was needed. He would miss the entire season. So if your best pitcher is going to miss the entire season, probably not a good long

35:06shot bet to make there. So let's stick to the Tigers, the royals of the guardians there in the AL central. Yeah. Yeah. That's it. It's not ideal. I mean, at the very least, he's going to be missing time. It seems like that. So let's not, let's not do that. Um, trending giants, uh, James Winston, who is entering his 12th season, says he wants to play for 12 more seasons. So you knew you're going to get a James quote sometime today. And there it is, buddy. Saw that yesterday. Saw that yesterday. Yeah. Everybody, all the media outlets, you better stay on hold 24 years. James is going to get paid, right? Like he, like we're not, he's going to want to play football as much as as long as he can. That guy's going to get paid to hit the booth. Yeah, you know, you kidding me. But it's going to be like like Tony Romo and get excited about these guys personality. That's actually what personality looks. He's, he's, he's not going to be in the boot. He's going to be like, he's going to be the comic relief on like whatever, whatever, something like that. Yeah. Like he's going to be on the morning, he's going to be one of the morning shows. And then he's to do. They send out to go talk to the guys. And then it comes back because it's just

36:07some hilarious thing that he did with him. I'm okay. If it starts that way, I'm okay. If it said James would be in the booth. Oh, okay. Mark it now. It'd be in the booth. He's still on the link for 12 more years though. So I can't really bet you on this because I'm not going to, I'm not going to come collect in 15 years. You know, the one that Gill always used to like to bring up, he used to laugh his ass off. You remember about when we were doing primetime action and you and I one show came to the conclusion. We're talking like a lot. I don't know what we were talking about. We're talking about NBA something. Both Matt and I were like, Hey, like three years from now, this piston seems going to be pretty good. Cash to those tickets in bed. We're cash to those tickets in right about now. Hey, they weren't pretty good. Just not as good as we thought. Yeah. Yeah. That's what it is. Guys, if you've not done so already, go check out sharp plays powered by advanced AI. They've also got inside in sources there. And they got some sharp action coming in for all of their picks right now. You get free daily reports, real time alerts and public logs and transparent receipts of all of those winning seasons since 2011 sharp plays.com trusted by the pros monitored by the books sharp plays dot com. So the AFC South comes out with a

37:08couple of different news nuggets this morning. And actually, let's go ahead and make three different news nuggets this morning coming out of the AFC South before we get into this full preview here. Cameron Wolf of the NFL network reported that the Jags are planning to use Travis Hunter as a full time corner and just kind of a, you know, play here in their wide receiver type deal, you know, just a gadget play thing and stuff like that. And so I think this probably has to do with the fact that Jacobi Myers came in and played as well as he did. And so with that, they gave him an extension. And so now you almost have a wide receiver room. This too full. And so if he is an elite corner, then you should probably just make him an elite corner. And I think that's what they're going to do here. At least that's what they seem and also can shut down maybe some of the rumors here in this off season in which they were wondering if maybe they that Brian Thomas Jr. would be a trade candidate. But obviously, if you are not going to play Travis Hunter at wide receiver, then you're not going to be trading Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah, that also felt like a way to get a great rookie season,

38:12felt like they're the criticism was maybe a little too much at times last year. From still a young player, the hunter situations, another story though, right? This is I think you needed to make this decision. I think it would have looked better if you made this decision coming out of the draft, right? It just it always felt like he needed to start on one side and then he can work into the other throwing all that on him at once with I just think it was too much. I also think but then we go back and forth, right? That is he really we're drafting as high as he did if he's not playing both sides of the ball, right? Is he really that good of a quarterback or a wide receiver? Here's a question I still have. And I don't know when we're going to get them answered by do think he needs to focus on one side. Yeah. And specifically look, this league, the way that we've gotten into such a passing league and the way that we have gotten to where these wide receivers are so incredibly good, the value of a lockdown corner has increased exponentially over the last few years. And we have very few of them. And if they think he can be that and you already again have a wide receiver room where you can line up Myers and Tom and Brian Thomas Jr. on each side of

39:16each other, you have Britain strange. It tied in as it is anyway like I think this is probably the smart decision for the franchise long term. Yeah, I think it is. I think this is a team man. I think it's been two years or a row where I've had Texans preseason futures to win the division at least two years. I'm trying to think it was even longer than that. It was definitely last two years. Jagsman, I might be I might be on board. This team really did convince me down the stretch last year. And I think sitting here looking at this offseason, I like what they're doing with with this team. And on both sides of the ball. So I look at there's small little criticisms. So you know, what are they doing with with hunger with Brian Thomas Jr. Right? Handling some of these younger guys. But man, I I'm kind of getting excited. This is the this is the first time I've been this high on the Jagsman a long time. Three different cults nuggets coming out this morning. And then we'll get into the full division preview here. One of which was Anthony Richardson saying that he would like to pursue a trade. So he wants out of town. They might be using or at least a candidate for the franchise tag as Alex Pierce, though we don't believe you and I don't believe that

40:18he's really good for what he does. I don't think he's worth franchise tag money. Yep. Because he's not going to get that in the open market. So I don't think they go that direction. And then also reported here that they certainly cannot franchise him and pay him that money because they apparently have interest in trade. Henderson as well. And so a team that desperately needs a better pass rush. Tray Hendrixson. Obviously going to be one of the premier premier names out there to help with all of that. And so the cults apparently going to be in the Tray Hendrixson market. So what that does here is bring us to a division that has the Texans at plus 160, the Jags at plus 180, the cults at plus 350. And then the Titans out at seven and a half to one. These are very interesting to me because I will say this Kelly. If of all the teams of all the divisions where if there could be a worse to first, I think this would be the division that wouldn't surprise me as much as basically any of the other divisions out there. Mainly because whenever you look at this, I'm talking about the bad teams too. Obviously there are, you know, the lions or whatever.

41:21I mean, like of the teams that are actually bad. So someone had to be lasted. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like of the teams that are actually bad, the the Titans. So let's look at this, all these teams as a whole, right? There are flaws for every one of them that have to be fixed. And so it's, it's, there is a world where if they don't address them properly or things don't work out, then this Titan team could make a push and maybe even a push for this division. So we know Texans have a defense. The offensive line was one of the worst in the NFL. We have seen retooled offensive lines work. Look at the Chicago Bears just last year. We've seen retooled offensive lines, not work. Look at two years ago, since the night of bingles, right? So like we've seen, we, so we know they're going to address the offensive line. There's no, there's no way to know whether that's actually going to play out and work when we, when they actually get on the field. I'll take a step further too. I think because of the offensive line issues, like I can't sit here and tell you right now that I know for sure how good CJ Stroud is, right? It's been his entire career so far. They're in Houston. I tend to be a bit more of a believer than most I think, but I, man,

42:25it's, they've got to get this line solved. And so you've got the Jags. And like while I think they're probably the most complete team. Yeah. In this division, there are still real questions around Trevor Lawrence and whether Trevor Lawrence can go out there on a week to week basis and make the plays needed to make this team a serious consent, get contender every single week. And so I think there is a question mark, at least there on the cold side of things. Obviously, the big glaring one is who's going to play quarterback for them. So yes, a huge, huge glaring issue there for the Colts. So again, the Titans, I don't love this team. And I certainly don't think that it's a real scenario of them going from worse to first year. But if there were a division that we look up and go, I mean, that types of Kim Warden up being pretty good there in year number two. And you know, they, they, they went out and addressed what they needed to in the off season and yada yada yada and stuff like that. And them kind of being in the mix in that division, it would not blow me away. It would not shot me. Yes, from the standpoint of the other teams in this division are all beatable. I'm with you. I, I guess I was surprised to see them as

43:25short as they are plus 750. I mean, just such, I mean, look, you had positive vibes at the beginning of the season, great story with the Indianapolis Colts into this season. Texas and Jags kind of become a story, right? And the Titans were just bad throughout. So hey, look, there's clearly other people in odds makers out there that are kind of viewing it like you are. They've got a decent offensive line. So that's that, that, so you have a decent offensive line. You have a defense that has some decent players on it as well. Sweat and Simmons and whatever like these are, these are good quality NFL players on a defensive line, which you certainly now, the problem with them couldn't stop and nosebleed through the, through the air. I mean, like they, they, they, they have to address the secondary. You really know exactly where they're going to be looking, at least in the draft and free agency stuff like that. Like if you don't get a couple of corners on a safety in there, then yeah, there's no chance. I mean, there's, there's no chance for this team. But I do think it's there at least someone interesting. That being said, if you had to make me, if you gave me a hundred Kelly bucks and you said, okay, you're going to lock it up for, for, for right now until the end, it's the Jags. I think the Jags are the most complete team currently constructed. They don't

44:28have to go get a new offensive line. They don't have to go get a quarterback. You know, all of this, all these things, they have two playmakers at Widers here. Like all these things that you would love about a team. So for me, it would be the Jags pretty easily for me. If I had a better right now, it would be two. I haven't said that though. It win totals are win totals. But if just what we have available division conference Super Bowl, I doubt I'm going to have a preseason bad in this division. I think that that's fair. Unless I see that the Texans don't go address their needs on the offensive line or something like that or whatever, and the Colts end up with Gino Smith at quarterback or something. And yes, I'll be, I'll be betting the Jags. There's no doubt about it. This is a beast in these sports Magnet word.