A Numbers Game | February 16, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story to Alex now, swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill, I like Xander gone be sin. It is the numbers game here on these sports betting network. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin, he'll be back in a week. Don't worry, but we'll hold you down here for the next five days. Always a pleasure to talk to Greg Peterson as you gave him the trivia question off air that he still crushed. I was going to show it off as I was asked Greg. We've got a game that starts here in three hours. Southeast Louisiana and East Texas A&M. And I said, hey, Greg, who's that three point shooter on South, these are in Louisiana that East Texas A&M's really got a lockdown. And I believe he said, yeah, they don't have to really worry about that because the whole team should sub 28% from three. I one day asked Greg what the mascot was of a college that I made up. And he thought for about literally less than five seconds ago, they're not a D1 team because I only, I only do D1 teams.

1:01So they're not a D1. He knew instantly. He was like, yeah, no, they're not a D1 team. And I was like, actually, there are no team. I made that college up. But yes, but that was he knew he was like, yeah, no, they're not a D1 team. That's great. We get tweets. Jesse Welsh calling me out that I didn't ask anything about Greg's love of life. Sorry, I forgot about, forgot about president's day and Valentine's day. I'm sure Greg had a great Valentine's day. Uh, Judo Conor Tweetening said a judge MVP. Aren't you better off finding logger longer odds in the silver slugger market? Any thoughts on that, Matt Brown? I mean, you can probably play judge alternately in a couple of different markets. If you don't want to play just the short, if you don't want to play just the short markets. I looked at home run leader like he's plus three 50 there. I just don't like if he's if he's hitting that he's winning MVP, right? Yeah. I mean, like you're looking while he can win MVP without hitting the most up runs. Yeah. I mean, like 45. Well, no, that's minus actually 50 homers.

2:03Where are we at for? Oh my god. Never mind. Don't bet those markets. Minus one 10 to 50. It's still hard at 50 homers. Like are you serious? Oh, okay. Those odds are bad. Do not do not play the 50 plus market minus one 10. Come on, man. School of tweet. It's still a year older. Like I mean, he's like, yeah, that's a lot of home runs for coin flip price. School of tweets. I'm located in Cleveland, Jose Ramirez, no MVP protection and small market gets no love ever. Don't waste your money. Sorry hoops. Thoughts on that. I mean, so herein lies the problem. I get what he's saying about the whole small market and all the stuff like that. But like you go back to the whole numbers. Don't lie thing, which is again, if you go upside, what you have to, you would have to have a, you would have to have a upside tail year to beat judge anyway, right? So his projected 28 homers need to probably turn into like 3435 homers, right? His projected 97 RBI need to turn into like 107 RBI or 117 or something.

3:08So I mean, I get what he's saying and all of that. But again, to take, to take down judge, you basically have to do something out of the ordinary as it is anyway, right? And like, that's going to open everybody's eye. If you look up and it's like, dude, you see Jose Ramirez has 35 homers on 117. It won't matter. Yeah. I agree with that. Yeah. The bar is going to be sent so high by judge that if you're really passing him that it's just going to be admitted. It'll be natural. It'll be news no matter what. Yeah. He sees it as last year. And he's still there. Exactly. And like, that's the thing. He was getting a ton of love or a saddle is not a saddle. When it, the mariners when it comes to baseball talk, they're definitely out of sight out of mind with all of that. I mean, we were even talking a little bit about. Could, could scoobal possibly win? I mean, he's a pitcher. You know, I mean, like, you know, he was never going to win it. But I mean, could he possibly win it? Could he possibly win it? So, yeah, I don't think that that's, uh, that's necessarily the case. So on Mondays, when we do, dude, do we do a full on like country club? We should introduce you to a little recap.

4:08No, we'll do the little Monday. Absolutely. Let's do it five or enough. Let's do a little golf talk to me. Let's go, country club. We even get the closest. We got them today. Oh, those are close sticks. Those are like the, those are the light sticks. Those are even better than the glow sticks. I don't know what they're called. Start. Whatever Darnel brings home from the range, man. There's, there's a little, it's a, it's like foam. It's the outside of it. And then there's a bunch of hit people. It's like a button on it. And then it started getting it. It's whatever. So like that. I'm guessing if you push the button multiple times, it does different things. But I don't, I can't say for sure. Like I think it's one of those where you can, you can try it. Mad knows how to party. You can tell you all about these. Yeah, that's one of those things. Uh, okay. So again, the, the big story coming out of this tournament outside of the Colomore Cowell got his first win in 28 months. It's the fact that Scotty Sheffler again and round one played himself what seemed to be out of the tournament. And instead played his way right back in to the mix yet again.

5:08And again, he missed a five foot birdie. Yeah, I know, man. He missed a five and a half foot par putt. These are two strokes, right? Sub six feet. And if you see the scoreboard, 22 under Scotty was at 20. He could have easily been at 22. We haven't discussed this once. Did you see the bet I made on him? Yeah, you did a, you did an odds boost, right? 100 to one. He was 100 to one and MGM added into it round four. I used an odds boost 25%. So 125 to one. I'm like, man, 125 to one on Sheffler. Sure. For one round. And look, it was, I couldn't believe the amount. You just can't, you can't tweet out anything these days without getting 19 people telling you how it's the dumbest bet they've ever seen, right? But the idea, there was strategy behind this, right? It was that we thought whether was going to come late. Sheffler was going to get out there earlier than these guys. He was going to get to the scoreable holes before everybody else. And that's exactly what he did. Yeah. And so it didn't necessarily like play out for you,

6:09but it's so the same thinking for me. So I took, I took Lowry and Fleetwood live. Well, Fleetwood's strokes off winning the being in the playoffs. I took a bit of Fleetwood too. I played Fleetwood and I played Lowry. And these are dudes that got out about 45 minutes before. And so you're going to play three to four holes that in better weather than the leaders. We're going to have to play in and all that. And you know, look, at the end of the day, also, I'm going to guess what do you selected those two guys? You were thinking, I'm going to get through some clean holes. And then if everybody's dealing with weather, I've got two of the better weather players. That's exactly what I was thinking. It's with this strategy when we make best. With all of that. And like it didn't get home, but it is what it is. You know, I mean, if you were listening to the show yesterday, I was sitting here live. As Scotty was seven under through seven, you were still getting five and a half to one on Colin. And I'm like, this is a bet you have to make because the algorithms now are almost overvaluing Scotty, because he's already through seven holes. And Colin had not played yet. You know, like Colin had played one hole. And so it's like, okay, yeah, Scotty was down to what?

7:10Four to one or something at that point. And so I'm sitting here going, okay, you're getting five and a half to one on Colin more cala, who by the way, is leading this field in stroke scheme to approach right now. And looks like he's at least a zero putter, which he's been so bad at putting. At least if he can put to a zero level with playing the iron plate that he's playing right now, it has to be a bet. We had some people go, hey, thanks for that. They went in and they played it. You know, and it was, it was one of those things where that's something that we might can take advantage of with this whole Scotty thing is they've, they've definitely plugged in a Scotty patch into these, into these algorithms where you almost got suppressed. There was no reason in the world that Colin more a cala should have been five and a half to one when he's, he was, he had a better score than Scotty. At the time that I bet it, it had much more holes to play, but it's because Scotty Sheffler and they're like, oh, okay, well, here it is. You're getting a better number than you, than you should probably be. Yeah, I mean, look, it was still profitable for me. I was the, you know, I was able to do the, like you're talking about the same exact time, right?

8:10Like you put a buy a no brace on Sheffler, buy it as 400. These other guys, I hadn't even teed off yet. Like, okay, well, lock it a little bit of profit. Yeah, well, in the other thing for, for both of us just in, and we said this on long shots, I was like, I'm going to have a bad week if, uh, I'm a bad week of Russell Hindley, doesn't talk 20 like I, I don't even, I can hit the outright and still lose because I went so incredibly heavily on that. So if we're going to talk about bad beats, we've got to talk about good ones. Yeah. Russell Hindley eagled the 72nd hole to get to T19. So I mean, like, that is running about as pure as evenly possible. Uh, yeah, that was good because you're right. It was a small winter week for me that completely would have flipped it, uh, getting that home. I'm just straight. Like, I lose, I lose big if he doesn't finish the top 20. Yeah. There was some other ones. Even with, I mean, I had his thoughts in a top 20. So he got there as well. I was just going to recap that. I made a lot of, this is going back months. Sometime, I would say early last summer. Matt, like, I can't remember a golf tournament. But I actually ended up having this much action going in tournament. Yeah. Was just trying to pick on some of the weather things,

9:11right? Some of these live numbers that were popping. Something wasn't planned. But as far as pre tournament, uh, now writes got home, but the handling top 20, like McNeely, just another Sunday, man, right? McNeil, like, you go 63 on Saturday, you get right into the mix and then a 73 on Sunday, pushes out of the top 20, that stunk. Lowry gets in, Fowler gets in. And then another one, Pearson, Cody. I do think worthwhile conversation before we transition to the Genesis. We brought this up on, um, long shots last week. Some of these guys, what do you do with a, okay, Pearson, Cody, you read and see who came. You read into that. Okay. These guys just finally ran out of gas. This was an incredible start for both these guys. Kind of didn't go as well this week, especially later in the weekend. They drop out. Uh, but then you got guys like Jake Napa, uh, keeps doing it. How are you attacking those type of players as we go into, like, next week? The woo. I don't really know. Pearson, Cody. So his profile didn't necessarily fit this course, right? I mean, he's a bomber and like, this isn't a bomber's course and all of that.

10:11It's like, I don't, I'm not really too worried about him. Unless we see some stuff really falling off. But, um, the woo is at least something we need to monitor. Yeah. But we need to monitor the woo. We've seen the woo play very, very well. And then the woo fall off. I picked, I picked the wrong, I was deciding between Napa and Pearson who I was going to keep playing. Because you're right. Neither in theory. Right. There's the driver such a weapon. This wasn't exactly the perfect course for them. Both had great putting, uh, numbers on Poa though. I think Napa, I'll be right back with it this week, most likely. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. I think whenever we go in and if you take a look just from a, a stats profile, some of the stuff that I think that will be interesting for us to pull out is just maybe some of these dudes that took the off season to maybe beef up the, the driver a little bit more. Now it's a small sample size and all of that. But the guys that jumped off the page to me, whenever you look at the leaders and driving distance this past week, you see zander is up there. You see sand burns is up there. Zander's ribs feel better.

11:12Like what are, I'm saying like, and maybe burns like, you know, figured something out. A lot of these guys just been working on swing speed, trying to get longer, trying to get faster, and all of that. Now we'll see if it carries over to some of these other tournaments, but that was something that kind of jumped off the page to me. As well, we'll talk to Genesis a little bit later. We'll get to, like, at least, uh, the nuts and bolts of it with all of that. And of course, we want to talk some baseball with you whenever we can in. L West preview. We can do that both in the same way. That's probably, it's like, dollars. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge

12:12into profit, with Visa and Pro. A numbers game on Visa, these sports betting network. A numbers game here on Visa, these sports betting network. Happy president's day. And I don't think it makes you a bad American if you had to Google exactly what president's day was, like Kelly and I just did right there, which is, I mean, we're not doing that for that. Yeah. Yeah. We're not honoring just all presidents. It's basically George Washington's birthday that we have, that we have given a, a blanket name to a generic name to when it's really we're celebrating George Washington's. Yeah. I mean, I think that's how it started. And you saw that the, his official website is none too pleased. He's kind of part of the site. It's like the Wikipedia link and that there's like a George Washington museum link where it says George, because we say it's George Washington's birthday around these parts, all right, it's not president's day here. We never call it that. We're going to get to finishing some

13:15golf here. Guys, if you have not visited chart plays, head on over there. They've been around since 2011 daily reports, real time alerts, public logs and transparent receipts trusted by the pros and monitor by the books that is sharp plays dot com. All right, Kelly. So we want to talk a little bit about what we're going to see this week. It's going to be moved back up to Riviera Country Club last year. They played it down at Torrey because of the wildfires. So don't look at last year's data and think that you're going to gain anything from it. It was completely different course. And so it's going to be a signature event with 72 players. There will be a cut. However, but in theory, there could not be a cut. It is top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes of the leader. Now we always see if you guys get lopped off, but in theory, all 72 could in fact make it through. So if you're playing DFS and all of that, like, you know, I know we always factor in what is the likelihood that this person is going to make the cut, etc, etc. I mean, you know, again, if they don't go like the scoreboard up and nobody really plays horribly, then we

14:17could have all 72 players for the weekend. So just that's something for everyone to know 7,322 yards, par 71, three par five 11 par fours, the typical kind of par 71 set up for you there. Poe greens, no water on this course, about 60 bunkers out there as well. Kelly, we have seen several long hitters in this tournament in the past, but the Watson used to be one of the longest guys on tour. He's won this multiple times. John Rom, one of the longest guys on tour has won this tournament as well. So it is, I think that there is a player profile that we'll be looking for as we start to put together models and stuff. Yeah, there is. And I'm kind of just looking at the board right now, Matt. You know, I feel like every week so far, there's been one or two names at certain numbers where I've been like, yeah, like this is probably one that I'm end up on. I don't know if I see that out there right now because you are right. I'm sure I'm going to be looking at distance here first. And I don't know that there's a bunch that are jumping out at current numbers. I mean, Cameron, young 27 to one, you and I were on him a couple of weeks ago. He showed me nothing.

15:21He showed me nothing as well. I'm just going to say at least the pricing is kind of the same on him. But man, I know there was a lot of people excited about Victor Hovelin last week again, you know, very different golf courses this week where I think this one would make a little bit more sense for him, maybe, but I don't know that I saw enough out of him to get excited about either. And then some of these guys did like, I mean, Sam Burns down to 30, right? Some of these guys are more Call of 31. I now we've gotten too short on both those guys really for me to be too interested in. I don't anybody else that jumped out of you early out to you early. Yeah, it's, it's, it's really interesting when I'm trying to figure out, you know, how I want to, to attack this one because like we said, there, there are guys that I still, I still think that we could try and be early on, but it was the whole thing for me with like a guy like Cam Young was I was trying to just ride the momentum that he ended last season on, but he has not carried that over yet.

16:23Yeah, I really played a ton, right? Into, into, uh, into this season. And so with that, that kind of gets me off of wanting to play him. Certainly nothing jumps off the page about him to me. Scotty at three to one. I mean, listen, I think we've learned of last couple of weeks. You can probably just get in in, in tournament on him. If you want to, it's probably not going to be that much worse than it is. So I think that's perfectly fine. If you want to go that direction with them, I think that's fascinating because we talked for, for a while about how these, you know, the in-game algos and stuff were just not giving you any benefit for Scotty, but like these last two weeks have been insane first round starts for him, right? Like stuff we never see out in the, in the first round. I, yeah, I hear you. And this is, I can't wait to dig into stuff here more later today on this right now. And you know, I rarely do this right now. This is kind of screaming Scotty chef or single bullet to me. Three to one. If I get a little over three to one, I think I might be in on Scotty this week. We saw a very good Sunday at a Rory McElroy. He is

17:2814 to one. Um, he kind of under the radar because he's just coming from so far off that he, I mean, it, it, they showed him a decent amount on the, on the broadcast if you were watching, but he wasn't in contention because he was just so far off. But I mean, he should be 64 on, on Sunday. So they're really great round for him. I thought there was a chance he'd go posted a low number. And then if the weather kicked up, he, he might be around, but just weathered and get too crazy. Yeah. It is. So where I put in zero driving distance last week, obviously, I'm going to plug that back in this week, which will bring in some other, some other contenders. I don't think though that I'm going to kind of go back to the well with some of these dudes that, that had spike weeks last week. Like, you know, men was fine. I'm not bad men. And certainly not now that the price is depressed because he had a good week last week. He's, he's the same price as a guy like Mav McNeely that we've been betting and all the whatever. Like he's right in the same range with some of these other dudes that we, that we like and been betting this year. And it's like, okay, I'm getting worse odds on a guy that had a spike week last week. I don't necessarily

18:31think that I'm going to go that I will say he did switch putters. And we know if you make more puts, then you can do better. He was using one of those like zero torque putters. You've seen the ones that have like the, that have like the, the shaft in the center of the head. He's now using a toe hang and, and looked like he was a little bit more confident with the stroke and certainly looked like he was, uh, he was putting a little bit better. But I mean, again, putting just kind of comes and goes a decent amount. We're still on Poa out there. So we know you're going to miss some that you think you're going to make. You're going to make something you think you're going to miss because there it does of the bumpy nature. And certainly we saw at least a little bit of that out there at Pebble, though, I didn't see too many puts. Yeah, I didn't think that crazy that I thought was bad. You saw a hop on a, on a few like that kind of got it offline or whatever. But that's just kind of the nature of the beast. But outside of that, I don't, I thought they rolled pretty well from, from what I watched. Yeah. No, I agree. It's always something you're kind of nervous about, especially when you got your guys up to put right with somebody online. It's a very annoying when that happens. I didn't, I didn't

19:32see too much of that this last week. I can tell you interesting to dig it. I just think the, if we go to the, the first page of the odds, okay, Shafler Rory, I think you can make a case for it, right? You can always make a case for those two guys, but even at those numbers in a short and field, but like, do you have, I don't know, and this could all change in 24 hours once I start digging into numbers. But I'm not sure I have any interest at these current prices on Zander, Tommy Hadecki, Henley, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantley, Victor Halvin Sampers. I don't know if any of those guys immediately, I have any interest in. I mean, you know, I definitely think that that's, that's fair. And if you want to talk about Scotty, this week, and say that you want to, to at least focus on him a little bit, the fact that his approach game numbers are not where we expect them to be their own, they're, I mean, they're going to get better. So he's going to, I mean, we're talking about these right now, 28th out of the people in this field. Come on. Wow. Come on. Wow.

20:35Right. Like, that's just, that is pretty crazy. Or 28th on tour, I should say, but, but, I mean, that's basically the most of the people in this field. So, yeah, it's probably 20th in this field to them. So it's, to me, something that we can, we can zone in. But again, we'll, we'll hone in on this a whole bunch more in tomorrow with, with all that. So we got the N L West, as you would imagine, the Dodgers, your massive favorite minus 600 to win the division. It's very hard to argue with that. The only thing I did was play against this team in a win total market. At least move my direction. It's down to 102 and a half now. We have the under 103 and a half. So that makes me feel at least somewhat good that people did look at the same thing. I didn't go 104 wins is a lot of wins in a baseball season, even, even, even if you are as deep as they are, the Padres made an addition. They Nick Cassiano joins the Padres gives them one more bat in that lineup that actually thought that they kind of desperately needed. There's been some people make some cases for the giants out there. The Diamondbacks are going to be about Corbin Carroll due to a hamate injury for him. So, and then, of course, the Rock

21:37who's going to be the worst team at base. I was just going to jump at Giants you have heard, because that was going to say that's the one team I feel like I haven't heard much about. I've heard a lot of fade in the Padres, high in the Diamondbacks. I really haven't heard Giants brought up at all. Yeah. There's, there's some love out there for the giants amongst like, you know, the air quote, sharps in there because they're, it's an interesting team that you kind of look at it and go if they were to, if they were to, because look, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray is a pretty great one to punch to start your rotation. Then Tyler Molly is another guy and Landon Roup. If he can like an Adrian house, I mean, these are all kind of dudes that if you look at, if they are able to pitch to what we've seen them, their ability that they've been able to pitch to before, it's, it's a really interesting rotation for them. And of course, Willie Thomas, Matt Chapman, you got Rafael Devers in there and all that. If Ramos can continue to play well for them, it's an interesting lineup. It's just not one that I'm willing to take as seriously as I've heard some of these people take. And they're not saying they're going to win the division, but I kind

22:38of like that they would be a wildcard team. Yeah, wildcard team. Yeah, overwind total wildcards, like stuff like that. Save for Bet map route Dodgers to win the division or Rockies to have the fewest wins in baseball. Oh, the Rockies are that bad. They're just going to be that bad. Yeah, 53 and a half. It's impossible to have. Yes, it's impossible to have a good team. Like I said, it is impossible. And they're like minus 400 in that market size. They thought the Dodgers would use your answer, apparently not a number is game on. He said these sports betting network. A number is game here on these sports betting network. Didn't have to talk much about the no less about the no less. I mean, it's, you know, it is what is we did get Steve Cohen come in and say that. Oh, never mind breaking news here. The dolphins are releasing Tyree kill. Whoa. So the dolphins are going

23:45to let Tyree kill walk released. Yes. So they could not find a even a trade partner to give them a fifth round or something or a fourth or fifth rounder. Wow. So he is obviously coming back from that gruesome injury. And we have no idea what he will look like. And, you know, if he can even play again, you know what immediate reactions. Wow. With a guy like Tyree kills talent. What we've seen in the past, right? But yeah, like you're saying it turns 32 coming off that injury. And for the dolphins, look, you're saving a lot of money. This is, this is something that just needs to be done. Not to hijack this segment in which we were going to go into talking some NBA stuff here. But like news like this kind of let you know, and you start to see where these teams are going to go NBA back in four days. We got time. Yeah. And it's like this is a, it's a full look. If you're dolphins fan, I think you just need to get used to to this. This is going to be a rebuild.

24:46And I think this new GM that they brought in has really, he looked at the roster and goes, okay, we're in a division with the patriots and the bills. We're, we got to just tear this thing down and try and rebuild it from the ground up. Yeah. I mean, his, his release saves the dolphins 22.8 million dollars against the cap. There's a lot that you can do for building towards the future with that kind of space. And it will be interesting to see if they just pull up, pull up Broncos with Tua and just be like, we'll eat the money. Feels like we're heading that way, right? Like we'll eat the month. No one's going to trade for him. Talked about this last week. Okay. No, nobody's going to trade for him. No one's going to. Someone trade for Kyler Murray. No. Okay. I think both of them are going to end up getting to pick where they want to go. And my crazy for thinking Kyler's far mortal. I think he's far more likely to be traded for than two. Yes. I actually think he's far more likely to just like end up still being the starter there because, because I don't disagree because it's one of those things where they're going to, they test the

25:48trade market, they test the trade market, they test trade, no one, no one bites. And then they go, we had a great talk with Kyler. We sit down. Everyone's on the same page. You know, you know, you know, they say, like this is, this is bad if you're a cartels football fan, right? But this is, okay, I'm sure they've got a number that, you know, number price, whatever that they want. If they don't get it, then it's, I think it's easier to keep a guy that you can easily still say it. This will be how, what, what are we six years into his career, something like that? You could still say, we don't know for sure what we have in this guy. We've seen the good. We've seen the terrible, right? And I think for, for a team that we think is going to be last in the NFC West, I think there are worse things than just bringing it back. Yeah. I mean, the dolphins are 30 to one just to win the AFC East right now. This is, I think you can, if you're, whenever they put up to, I was going to say, when they, when they, when they start putting up these exact finishes and stuff and things like that, like you can just confidently slot them into four because I'm pretty sure this means they are going to rip it down. Well, as they should, as they should, as they should, as they should, you got to rip it down sometimes. It wouldn't be surprising to me if we start to see some of these guys

26:53get, well, we, we got Chubb is out. Well, it's a little bit earlier today. So they're getting rid of Chubb, getting rid of Tyree Kill, wouldn't surprise me if they try to sell off a couple of other pieces as long as they can and just go in, make the team younger, try and hit on some draft picks. See if you can get as many, you know, as, as you possibly can, I think this is a smart way to go about it, but it's going to be pain if you're a dolphins fan for a couple of years. Yeah. You know, it's tough for some of these teams now. Look, I think that's the blueprint, right, man? I think that's the correct blueprint for most of these teams. And that's what you have to do. Just thinking about what we, what we've seen Seattle do though, in the past couple of years, some of these teams where you at least think there's some talent on and I would include Miami in that conversation like that is, I don't, you know what I'm getting at? Like Seattle did that like many rebuild, right? It's trade out a couple of star pieces, get in the right coach and all of a sudden you're a Super Bowl contender. And it's just, I know it's going to be tough because more likely Miami is going towards the teradol down and completely rebuild. And most teams

27:54have to do that. But man, probably just another tip of the cap to what Seattle was able to do over the past couple of years. Well, they nailed the draft to the other thing, right? Like, you know, you get it, you, you go get JSN, you get even worry, you get an offensive line. I mean, it's, it's like they nailed the draft like all these guys have panned out to be, to be really, really good. And I mean, you start to look at what they're bringing back on the dolphin side of things. It's a, it's a pretty poor offensive line. When it's all said and done, you've got a quarterback that makes too much money that you don't want to play for your team anymore. You've got a defensive line. That's pretty terrible. I mean, that the whole, they just got to tear it down. They got to rip it apart. What's waddles deal off? You know, I have to talk your head. That's, I mean, like how are they talked about moving him at the trade down this year? So like, it's got to be about, about time. I mean, this is, we don't often see teams go full NBA in the NFL, but like, I mean, Devon H and Jalen Waddle, these are luxuries at this point, right? Like for what you're trying

28:54to do and completely rebuild. And especially if you're going to, if you are going to get rid of two, and you're going to do the Quinn, you were's experiment, right? Like why would you keep them around if you're going to do the Quinn, you were's experiment. You wouldn't. Yeah. So there we go. I mean, I was some big news there. Tyree Kills going to be, man, he had, it was not guaranteed, but it was $36 million dollar contract. Can you imagine waking up this morning and being like, oh, by the way, you're not, you're not making $36 million, you thought you're making. Oh, yeah, that would be tough. Tyree, you know, it was going to say maybe Waddle he'd hang on to. Yeah, Danny just told me on your contract through 2028. Like he's, man, he had Jalen Waddle, it was 27 years old already. Feels like he just got into the lake. It really does. Well, Dolphins, good luck. Yeah, good luck. Like we said, 31 to win the division, I bet the odds get a little longer. I guess I'm surprised you're that confident. There'd be the last place team, though. This is Jets Dolphins. You've got a race to convince me of the offseason. I don't know that I'm going to have a bet now. Cardinals in the NFC West feels good.

29:58But also that a year ago, but see, Hawks, they also released an offensive lineman James Daniels today as well. So they have Tyree Kills Bradley Chubb James Daniels already released by Miami today. We'll see what else they get going there. But again, it's just the writing on the wall. This is the little stuff that we kind of put into our mind and we know now what they're going to do. So when the betting markets come out, I will be pretty confident that they'll be last. I think they, I think they want to lose. So what is the, we get free and taking right here, by the way, because Archmaning comes out in this draft and all these other guys come out in this draft and all we're getting. This is a pre tank right now from the, from the Dolphins pre tank and pre tank before win totals are posted. I don't like that. Yeah, I know. Would have been nice to be betting this right now. Yeah. Yeah. We don't have win totals. We don't have any of that stuff. I give MVP like three hours after the Super Bowl is done. And I still don't have win totals yet. Come on. Yeah. It's, I mean, this is just, I wish I could bet them to bet. I just wish I could bet them to place fourth in that division.

30:58Right. This second. But again, we can't, we can't do that. But these are a lot of things we'll tuck away. And we'll have three players already just this morning. Yeah, that's why the reminder tomorrow, this is where we're going to see it start seeing franchise tags come down. Oh, and here's a beat rider. They let go of, uh, they let go of Nick Westbrook a quinae as well. I mean, he's not a big name, but they're, they, he probably was like a little bit more expensive than they wanted to pay, you know, so, uh, he gets released as well. So now four. So now four guys gone this morning for the Dolphins. See Jonathan Jones who NFL insiders NFL and CBS, Dolphins releasing tirey kill. This has been the expectation since his injury. Interesting. Yeah, four players, four players today. Wow. All right, Dolphins. Let's see what the plan is. Yeah, show me what the, show me what the plan is. Um, okay, let's not, let's, let's wait on most improved players. I know you have some thoughts on that. And I don't want to like cut you short on that. So let's just get to these two crazy. Okay, you want, you want, we do have time to

32:01hit it in two minutes. Let's do exact as you're right. Let's just do some exact as real quick with all that. I did bet a calves. What did I do? I did calves and gilded. I don't have one yet. Gild did Celtics and spurs exact matchup. I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong, Danny. I believe that's what he bet pulled the exact as here we got. Guess what? A lot that start with Oklahoma city and Denver. Okay, see over Cleveland eight to one is your current short shot. Okay, see over the next plus eight 50. Okay, see over over the pistons. I almost said the lions nine to one and thunder over the Celtics 11 to one. And then we've got Denver over the next 20 to one, Denver over Cleveland 21, Denver over to Detroit 22 to one. Okay, see over Philly 25 to one. Go to your any sports book that you bet at you'll be able to find these pretty much. I have calves and thunder just as the matchup. And then I have, and then I have thunder over calves and then calves over under what was the matchup? Matchup was thunder calves too. Yeah. Okay, mainly because

33:05I found a better number a different book. And so then that was like, that's why I ended up betting the both sides of it as opposed to just the matchup because I need a number just about roughly when you bet that. When do they show that? Do they show the dates? It's so it frustrates me so much how book some books do easily and some books don't. I know. Okay, so here's my thoughts here because this is unsexy. I really, I've been waiting for I don't ever since Nikola Yokich first got hurt. I was like, yeah, there's going to be a time to jump in on Denver here in the future's market. And then they like won some games. I looked very good. Then they had other injuries that he came back. They have other injuries. So I still haven't gotten involved with the Denver nuggets. I will somehow I thought this was going to be a way for me to get in that. But because of the jumped board at the top in the Eastern Conference, I thought my Denver Knicks exact it would be good to look at between the line. Not as sexy as I thought it was going to be. Most improved player when we come back. I promise.

34:14A numbers game on. He said these sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gill Kelly Bidlin in here with me. And if you're going to write in and hate, at least like, at least be correct. So we have this like group of haters that just like whatever live to just so this guy to hate you. Obviously don't want to ask true. Okay, like so true. True statement. That's that's never been hidden that I don't watch NASCAR and I'm not a NASCAR better. You should watch. I'll handle and lost the championship last year. I'll pass. Also, sure you sure you bet. Hoach also not sure when you bet host of our in race. Like we said, we were going to do because we were going to make a whole bunch of bets in race. Like we said, we're going to and then you said you bet Carl Larson at 18 to one and then boosted it to 2180 right as if I was lying about one was 22 and a half not 2180 because if you can do math, the 25% boost gets it to 22 and a half not 2180. So that's actually so if you're going to call if

35:15you're going to if you're going to write in and hate like at least come, come, come correct. Like come right. You could just say you lost all your NASCAR bet. Yes. Correct. Every single one of them. Yep. The one time that I bet NASCAR this year, I will, I did in fact lose all of my NASCAR bets. Got me. Got your moment. Oh boy. You don't watch NASCAR. Got me. Oh man, I'm exposed. I love that chaos. I'm exposed. I love it. I'm exposed. Shults to its Hague of I lower remains a cut candidate, but the dolphins would like to find a part trade partner. No joke. No joke. They'd like to find a trade partner. I was just curious, how does that, how does, how does shults get his hands on that? But it news right at this not help the dolphins whatsoever and trying to treat him. Yeah, I mean seriously, but I mean, they like we said, that no one's trading for them at that contract. It's just not happening. Because, and also we ran through this whenever we were kind of talking about some of these other landing spots for any of the other quarterbacks, we know we're gonna be available. There's, aren't a whole lot of places

36:15that are really desperately in need of a quarterback. And certainly not one that you're gonna trade for that makes, was it $50 million to make $40 million for? It's big time salaries, right? This, I mean, you could say this about human Kyler, right? It's big time salaries for guys that are, I mean, what, like kind of proven commodities you know where that ceiling is or it feels like we know where that ceiling is. And we always talk all the time. The worst place to be is stuck in the middle, right? Doesn't matter if you're in the NFL, NBA, whatever. Not gonna be drafting high at 500 finish, gives you, gets you nothing at the end of the day and you don't make the playoff. So why would you take on that big of contract with a player that you don't think is gonna be able to lead you anywhere in the future? Yeah, makes that difficult. Yeah, I mean, this is like, he is, it seems like he's on the road to being cut then. If they're gonna put out that he's a cut candidate, they wanna trade him, no one's gonna trade for him. So it looks like two of them might be out of there. Well, we might be in the middle of the Quinn Uers experiment, which honestly, you probably wanna do because Quinn, what if Quinn Uers is good? And if he's terrible, then it does exactly what you want,

37:18which is get you to the top of the draft and then you can go draft his replacement. Mm-hmm. So, so this is, I mean, the plan seems to be, I mean, you're gonna hate it if you're a dolphins fan, but it seems like it's gonna work out. To a cut before the end of the show. No price is minus five hundred. Oh no, they're still combing around trade partners. Minus five hundred on the no price. Oh yeah, no, I'm still better than that. But after that tweet comes out, who knows? I'm still betting the no. Can you imagine they're like, they like the cell phones ringing and they know if the dolphins GM, they just hit the, they just hit the the cancel button. Leave a message. Yeah, they don't even pick up. It just got straight to voicemail. I'm golfing. Yeah, like, why did you hit the button twice on me? And it's like, well, you know, we know why you're gone. No chance. All right. So most improve player. This is something that you do have an opinion on here. And certainly at least something that is an interesting market nonetheless. Yeah. This is, man, when I've been flipping around on, I was waiting for, waiting for a while to get in on Denny Avdia. I thought that was going to be a good bet at some point. Maybe it still is.

38:19I'll tell you my thinking is shifting though here. And it's, it's a market because of that. You know, when you kind of circle, you kind of circle a name or a number, right? And it's, okay, let's see where this goes. There was a couple of things, you know, a couple of weeks of schedules that I didn't, that I didn't love for some of these other guys. And we were getting into this all star break. So I'm, I still haven't made a bet here recently, but the three day, we talked a little bit about this last week. I think those three names have really separated themselves this season. Denny Avdia, Jalen Johnson and Kionte George, Kieland Alexander Walker, Jalen Duren have been absolutely awesome too. But I don't think that with Jalen Johnson being so far up there, I do think that same team thing comes into play here, Matt, where I don't know if Kieland Alexander Walker has been awesome. He has not been as improved as Jalen Johnson as I think it's easy for a lot of voters to see that. So I don't really know how much he's truly going to be in the mix. We brought this up last week. I think the first big red flag in this kind of race is Kionte George. And that was, that was one that I kind of identified a couple of weeks ago.

39:20It also kind of drove my interest more towards Denny because of that. It was watch out because he's getting, he's getting benched or rested in some of these games here. Now he still has nine more games that he can miss. So there is some time and we'll see if the jazz fine changes how they're going to do things out of the break. Just something to keep on your radar because I think he is the third guy on the outside kind of looking into these on this race anyways, he's slowly moving towards that outside. And if he misses more games, I think he's probably going to be ruled out. Look, he's had a nice jump this year for sure. He is convinced the jazz enough that they should go out and get Jaron Jackson Jr. because they believe in this trio building around going forward. But if you just look at the numbers and this is what this often comes down to, this is a jump up to 23.8 points per game from 16.8. And I think we're absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's a seven point jump what we're talking about points per game. This is usually the first thing you want to start with when you're breaking down most improved player. As risen in three point percentage rebounds are about the same.

40:22He's about up a full assist. Good on him. Okay. Now we get to Denny and Jalen Johnson. Denny. Avia. He's played 46 out of 56 possible games can miss seven, seven more has been dealing with a back injury here recently. And this is where I've kind of changed my opinion on this. Real quick, Kelly. So people just that if you're, if you're not doing the math in your head or whatever, there's about 26 games left in the season for everybody. So just so they like, because when you, when you say like how many games they can miss, I don't know if people know how many are left in the season. Thank you. If you're watching at home, I provided some info on the graph. I think, but yeah, if you want to do all the math, yeah, it gets a little tricky. So you can miss seven more. I'm a little worried because we've seen a misdifferent stint, Matt, that this is going to continue to be a thing. And I would hate it because I do have some blazer over wind total bets. So from that perspective, would not like it. Now we just go by the stats. I think he's your clear leader and the odds reflect that he's up to 25 point two points per game from 16 point nine rebounds about the same assist a huge jump six point six assist this season up from 3.9 leads the NBA in drive.

41:23So he's got 14 double doubles and three triple doubles on the season. Now we get to Jalen Johnson. He's not really going to be threatening to admit that hit that game, missed games, Mark. Okay. He can miss 11 more talked about, we talked about these jumps and points per game. 23.3 up from 18.9. It's not as significant at what he's with what you've seen from Denny or Kionte George. Okay. Fine 3 point percentage is up for his position. That's important up to 35% rebounds to about the same. He was awesome last year. He's got double digit rebounds with his averaging a game 10.6 is what he's at this year. He was at 10 flat last year. The assist huge jump here 8.2 assists up from five a year ago. And then this is the big one 35 double doubles and 10 triple doubles. I think that Nicola Yokech and Russell Westbrook have made triple doubles seem like it is not that big a deal, Matt. 10 triple doubles on a season is an amazing number to have. And like I think that is going to be weighed heavily.

42:24So Jalen Johnson is the guy right now that I've got circled haven't made a bet yet. I think I want to see what what this looks like out of the all star break as far as Denny in the back and Kionte George Denny plays a couple games. Maybe this isn't something anymore. Kionte George I have a feeling is on his way out of this conversation. So Jalen Johnson just don't think there should be as big a separation right now with him at plus 240 and Denny. I've got minus 120. You know, one of the interesting things was after the all star game, Shay's price on MVP got better. He was minus 220 before the game and minus 210 after the game. It's just funny that like people would watch an all star game and then like in bed other people for MVP of a league. Yeah. It really is and look, there's no reason to like if you're interested, if you're interested in Shay, which I don't feel like I've heard much of that recently, but like I think there's still reason you should be interested in me. Still is very good chance. And he's the favorite to win MVP still in my opinion.

43:25Wait, wait on that number, right? Like it's only going to continue to come down with him missing games. Yo, catch back in there. Even one thing a lot of people don't want to talk about yo, yo, yo, just playing these games. Some of them have not been pretty. You highlighted. Remember last week, some of the turno, the turno for numbers have been insane. We haven't seen out of yokich in years. So I think it's kind of interesting with this minimum number of games played to qualify for all this stuff because I kind of have a feeling yokich rushed himself back a little bit. It just doesn't look like he's completely in NBA form, but he's a guy that doesn't lie much on athleticism. So I think he can get away with it. Just something to be aware of right now. So you had to make a con not a not a championship bet. But as we head into the second, well, far past a second, far past a halfway point in the season. The last half of the season here, a conference winner in the east, you had to make a bet right now. Uh, New York, next, okay, that would be plus 330 over at draft games. You can't say the thunder in the west. Uh, nuggets. All right. Three to one.

44:25So you take a three to one to 330. Yeah. Okay. And nuggets, probably, you know, I talked about when we talked, uh, exact as been waiting to jump in on the nuggets, almost this whole season. I just, I still don't think we've hit the perfect point. I want to see them get healthier. I think as we get closer to playoffs, um, could probably still get a little bit better price. Spurs at 8.50. Just seems so juicy. Oh, I know. I hear you. That would be my second. It just seems so juicy, nearly nine to one on that team possible or a major league baseball when we come back.