A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story of how he's down. Swampdow's idiots who believe in athletics. This is a numbers game with Gil Abig's enter. Convison. The numbers game here on Vs. and the sports betting. Networks here, Channel 158, YouTube TV, our very own Vs. and watch out. Terrestrial stations across this great country of ours as we sit in here and make up the rules as we go because that's what we're allowed to do. Try it. So we've decided that we're going to go ahead and do because the golf draft yesterday didn't work out because we didn't... It was a great idea. We made it and figured out exactly how we were going to grade stuff. That's the thing. And so I would hate to make you buy me a very expensive drink when we didn't really identify the rules. Now I did have the highest finisher of the people in the draft yesterday but he did not win the first round leader. And specifically not... And he didn't win first round leader on the course. Yeah. Because there's two different courses. So we'll just void that one out. Good idea.

1:00We at least got a couple of our guys finished like top five, top 10 first round. So maybe some people tailed some of those out there. So we will just void that one out. But this one cannot be voided because there are only eight participants and we're going to go for a piece. So I'm going to lead things off here. And if you don't know where I'm going, then you need to listen to the last time. I'm picking Damien Lillard. The guy's been sitting at home. He could probably win this thing left handed if he wanted to. That's all he's been doing. He's just been shooting. He was shooting in a wheelchair. He could probably at least finish in the top three of this thing from a wheelchair. He probably could. But I think they're going to let him stand up and I think he's going to shoot well. And so I'm going Damien Lillard. I just, I can't get past that thought. Like, yes, you can say this guy is not a basketball shape. Has not been playing with a team. All this stuff. But like, I know he's got a mansion in Portland with a basketball court probably in it that he's just sitting there. I've seen these guys go gain 40 pounds whenever they retire. And then able to just show them out on a court and then the shot just still goes up. Like, yeah, they probably couldn't juke you anymore.

2:01Right. They probably couldn't get to the hole on you. But if you just leave them standing there at the three-point line, they can still just drain them all day long. Okay, I've got one. One I know that I will be betting. And yeah, I bet this almost ever. You're usually picked two guys. Have a little fun with it. Tyree's maxi. I will be taking. Okay. He will be a guy. I'd definitely be betting. And then I'm kind of deciding between a couple others. Again, over 40% on wide open looks this year from three, making the most of anybody in the field per game. And then I will go in. You know what? I'll ride the vibes of a good season for Jamal Murray. I will go Jamal Murray with my second pick. All right. Well, then I'm just going to go. I'll go con and then Donovan Mitchell. Yeah. I think one, just because I just love watching Conchute. I like your team better already. I just love watching Conchute the ball. Like he's, I'd, it is such a pure shot. I just love watching him shoot the ball. And then I'll take a, I'll take Donovan Mitchell as a guy that I believe.

3:02If you look at the guys that I had remaining, I would take, I like him over. But here's where I'm going to end up with Portis. I was going to say I think I did. He could just fill out the rest. Yeah. So I'm going to end up with Portis. So I can go ahead and just circle him. Bobby was in this last year too, right? Yeah. Oh, we'll get through it. No, we got to do all four because we're going to have a winner. It's okay. We can put, we can put those on the graphic, Danny. It's okay. We'll leave out the last couple. We'll just leave out the, the guys that we will definitely not be betting. Yeah. So you're, you're taking Booker Powell. I'm taking Booker Powell. I would rather bet. You know what? I'm going to say, I think Booker's got a better chance contending in this. I don't think it's by much though. And I actually think those odds are a little disrespectful for Norman Powell. So if you're the guy that's going to strip, like if you're spreading out three bets in this, I, I don't mind including Norman Powell at 10 to 1 or 90, not post 9, 50. It's a little wild. We're getting a bonus here of him being the least sexy name outside of Bobby Portis. Is that what it is? That's what it is. Look, look, look at, they're all, the odds are all jumbled up until you get to Norman Powell.

4:06And like the, the casual better goes, I don't even know who Norman Powell is. Thanks, Matt. Good call. You're right. My MBA brain is too locked into the NBA all the time. Yeah, you're right. That's what it is. And so that actually probably, that actually is probably value. If we were trying to identify value, because like even if you wanted to say he belongs below all the, then it would be 750. It would be 10 to 1. What I'll be doing. So just from. No, you're absolutely right. What I will be doing is betting Maxi and then one of Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell or Norman Powell. I mean, look at this. Especially if this number keeps drifting all weekend, right? This is double digits. I don't really know how I'm not looking at Norman. So there it is. We, we've done our draft and there will be a winner. We will come in here. We'll grade this puppy on Monday. And this will be for the expensive drink. That's right. Get that figured out. So I have, we all have rooting interest at this point. Let us know which team you like better. It's going to be mine. But it's okay. Let me know which team that you like better. Yeah, like your team better already.

5:06Don't emotional hedge. Don't emotional hedge. No, no, no, no, no. It's okay. I went with my guys. Yeah. Probably should have gone with Con over Jamal Murray, but yeah, whatever. Your emotional hedging. Don't do it. It's fine. Big stage for Con Canipa. I don't know if he can handle it. Rookie. Bright lights. All start game atmosphere. Okay. Let's head to these, these markets out here in the awards for the NBA. Now, as of from yesterday to today, because again, we have yet another game in which SGA doesn't play and why not Kate Cunningham falls to 14 to 1 now. Okay. So the, the a little bit more juice, a little bit more juice on a cave cutting him here for MVP. As people, I think look around and go, well, SGA is not playing. And Yoke, we think he'll qualify, but there's at least there, there's at least a chance that if something else comes up that he might not qualify. Well, he's the best player on the team with the least amount of losses right now in the NBA.

6:11So like you were talking about, as much as we talked about the, the thunder all season long, 42 and 14 is their record. The Detroit pistons are 40 and 13. So that's where we're at. Best 1 percentage right now. He's the best player on that team. I get that. I think some of the just even baseball card numbers, right, advanced stats. I don't, I don't know if he's going to get there. I don't know that. Oh, would I put him above Luca? Because he's jumped Luca. Yes, I would. That's part partially due to Luca. Don should change. And you see the number drifted on J.L. Brown's just yesterday. It was 35 to 1's 40 to 1 today. Yeah, yeah. That's a little interesting too. The one I will say about Luca, though, and I've said this, I've said this man. It feels like for two or three months, Matt. It's not a bet for me. But it's because of my lack of belief in where the Lakers end up finishing in the standings. I just don't know that you can go make a great case for Luca. If he's on a six seed in the Western conference or something like that. But if you are a bigger believer in this Lakers team down the stretch than I am,

7:14I don't think 20 to 1 on Luca is a terrible bet. I ain't got a certain point. We talked a little bit about this the other day. Yo, I've got that's already on yo, catch man. I hope he gets there. I hope he's able to play this number of games. I think it's two final lines still. Now, at a certain point, we're going to, we're going to hit a point in the season. You know, a few weeks from now, where, okay, if he's still got a couple games free, I'll probably be changing what I'm saying. I don't know that you can go in a bet on that now. I think what's really curious here, Matt, is there a point before Sage Gildes, Alexander returns that this number comes back far enough to the pack that that becomes the bet again all of a sudden. Probably, but it's not there yet for me. It's not there yet, but let's say he misses a week more of games. So not just okay. Obviously we're in a dead period now. You're missing that. Get that out of all star week. He misses four or five games. This numbers is number hits minus 125 with him back on the court. Are you going in on SGA? I would like it to be a little bit closer to even money because now you start, like you said,

8:17I mean, there is buffer, but you are starting to, to get into the dangers on there a little bit. You are. You are. And it will depend, obviously, if Yokech had missed any games there then. But I think this is still, I think we're going to get excited about some of the other names. I think this is a two horse race with SGA and Yokech. And that's only if Yokech plays. Is he able to get over the hump? So I'm just throwing out there. Like for me personally, all I have, I do have a one silly stoop at 101 Kade Cunningham ticket. I'm heavily loaded on Yokech from Rollerland season at five to one. If I see that kind of drift with SGA, I will be in on him. And I just want to point, I don't think it's just from a hedging standpoint. I actually think it's a good bet if you're getting, if he hasn't hit the court yet again, and it's around even money, I think that becomes a pretty good bet. Coach of the year is four deep under 10 to one. We get Charles Lee at 15 to one. And then everybody else 20 or longer. Do you believe that JB Bickerstaff is your favorite?

9:17Yeah. Okay. Yes. I believe he should be the favorite. I made a bet on Jordanought last week. And it's right around this same number. And a lot of this is, I just don't think there should be that biggest separation between where Bickerstaff is at and we're honest at. Now, look, the more that, like we just talked about, what happens in the standings, the more of that that occurs and if Detroit continues to, from here on out has the best record in the NBA. Yes, I think he's winning it. It's probably not, it becomes not even a discussion, right? If the thunder catch back up, okay, this Detroit team slips at all. Just preseason expectations. I don't really know what we're talking about here with Jordanought being this far back. Preseason win total on this son's team was 30 and a half, 30 and a half games. Kevin Durant leaves town. All the major changes with this roster and what you expect. This was not a team. Look, the win total was so low, I had no interest in going under on them, right? It was that one. It was a team that I really didn't think was going to be a factor at all in the Western conference.

10:17There are seven seed right now, could easily play their way out of that play in position. I, Jordanought should be getting a lot of love for a team that I didn't expect to be in, remotely sniffing a playoff opportunity at all this year. I'm a little shocked, he's that much further back from Bickerstaff. But Zool is great every year. Like Mitch, I don't think Mitch Johnson, I don't think he really stands a chance. When Benyama gets all the credit there, right? When Benyama and this, and then what you've done with this roster gets all the credit. Charles Lee probably should be more in the conversation. I know I've got a lot of tweets about this. He probably should be more in the conversation, but they just started too far back. Too many losses too early. I think where they end up in the standings is going to hurt him. And I don't think he's really in the race. I think the Zool probably is Matt. In the last 40 seconds, let me give you one scenario. I don't think it's going to happen. But what if the spurs overtake the thunder in the West? Yeah, the standings always do matter with this. So yes, he's at least live back in the conversation if that occurs. Because I mean, again, don't think it's going to happen.

11:18They are only three games back. I still think though, okay, if we're talking about situation end of season, it's spurs with the one seed and Detroit with the one seed. I think Bickerstaff still wins the award. Okay. Yeah. But just wanted to say that. I mean, that's where the Wimbledon Yama, Wimbledon Yama MVP conversation, I think comes back into play, not just defensive player of the year MVP. Let's get into some baseball betting conversation. Just how do you go about it? What's the strategy? And how's it changed over the years? You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now, so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro.

12:27A numbers game on Visa. These sports betting network. Numbers game here on Visa map. Kelly. News coming through here. Toronto Raptors have waived Chris Paul. And. What was your favorite moment from the Chris Paul? I was just about to say I'm going to bet that 98% of you listening and are watching right now had no idea that Chris Paul was even on the Toronto Raptors. Yeah, probably not. And so they have they have waived Chris Paul. He will have his pick of where he wants to go here. And it's just it feels like this is going to be a sad ending to a really storied and awesome career. But man, it's just. Yeah, you and I were talking about that. But I'm not going to say hang it up. I'm never going to say hang it up to anybody. The guy. The guy clearly loves playing basketball this much. And I respect the hell out whatever you do in life. If you can love something this much, that is awesome. Having said that, Matt, if I was in his shoes, I probably would have hung them up about eight years ago

13:29and been joining all of that money that's in the bank account. Just living on a banana boat. It just living on a banana boat. Island Island in the Caribbean. Yeah, I just have someone. On a banana boat. Just dragging me. Yeah. You're just going from out on a banana. To a robot. Yeah, there's all the banana boat the whole time. That would just be me. Yeah. Can you do that one hand? You do that one hand right? Because I need like I need some kind of beverage in the other. Yes, absolutely. Need a margarita or something. I would just, you would, you know, you saw a crazy wave coming. Maybe you just batten down the hatches a little bit or whatever. Outside of that. Yeah, you can one hand banana boat. I'm pretty sure. Yeah. I mean, I'm just trying to think of teams, right? Like, okay, if we have, I don't know. You say it could add sad. I think it could end kind of cool too. Like there are teams that he's been on. I mean, not long ago, we're talking about Chris Paul having played every single game of the season for the San Antonio Spurs. And now, yes, they have added young guys in that back court. Could he still not be used as a leader on that team? And someone that those guys are used to to just have around,

14:30even if he's not seeing the court all that often. I think that's a possibility. Could we definitely have some type here? Here's what there's where this gets sad. Is if he really still wants to play a lot. Right. And then so he just goes to some mediocre like slash bad. I agree with that. And then it's just like old guy out there running around. Doing pointless things and all that. Like that's where I could get. But if you can get into the the Udonis Haslam Jeff Green role of like, hey, I'm still technically on the roster, but I'm basically an assistant coach. I mean, even like, okay, see? Right. A team that he's been on. Like, you know, just a lot of young guards flying around out there. That is a guy I could, I think, make an impact from that side of things. Yeah, it's, but it's a, it's definitely one of those things where I hope that he has in mind that playing time is going to be sparse. And I'm doing this because like I still enjoy the game. I still want to be around the game. But I am more of almost like coach on the sideline to the younger guys type thing.

15:31Then I need, I need 25 minutes of game. You know, like, like, come on, man. No, you don't. No, I'm trying to think like like the heat, the heat. Like they, they've always been a team that they appreciated that Udonis Haslam role. And like, they're back. Or I mean, if Tyler here was going to continue to get hurt here. Well, he might actually be able to get a few minutes of game there. Okay. Maybe we'll think about this over the weekend and come back with like best landing box. No, this is just me like me loving the NBA too much. Like nobody cares. He's not going to make that big of an impact. Well, depth is depth, right? Depth is depth. Depth is depth. There's no doubt about it. Guys, if you have not already become a decent pro subscriber, we're going to allow you to do so. So for just $9.99 for the first month, you can go in and see every single thing that we have to offer over there at Vison.com. That includes the betting splits page that we know you love. The AI powered props that are going right now for the NBA. Tough to handicap that on daily basis as it is. So go in. Allow us to help out. Get the video feed for you. All the replays are included in any of the betting guides that happen to come out while you are a trial member.

16:36You will get those as well. You can start for as little as $9.99 at Vison.com. Slash. Subscribe. Okay, Kelly. It is. We've talked about some of these divisions. And what we think is going to happen there. Some of my win totals that Roseberg joined us. She and Jones, we get all kinds of baseball stuff going on. But we haven't really talked about just the nuts and bolts of betting when it comes to baseball. And it has changed over kind of the last five years, in my opinion, mainly because of. And we like. We like advanced stats and we like analytics and we all the way up all that. But. It has been to the detriment of the starting picture in major league baseball because. There is all this data out there that unless you're the elite of the elite. The third time through the lineup. These guys want to get you out of there now. And so. Handicaping games now where we used to think, you know what? Get six or seven out of this guy. And I have to get six or seven. Okay, let's look what the setup man in the in the bullpen in the closer looks like.

17:39You know. Born four and two thirds. Five flat five and a third. Like these are all very, very common stat lines for the majority of the pitchers in major league baseball now. And so we have to. Move kind of away from the full game lines a lot more. I know I have into first five bets. They allow. The other thing the books have done, which is what you can do first seven inning bets to. As opposed to like going for three for five for seven. Yeah. So you can handicap each game individually now. It is more work. But I mean, you can you can handicap each game individually as to okay. What is a realistic time that I think this picture is going to pitch in this game. I like him up until a certain point. So my bet is this as opposed to that or my bet. I could be extended up to here, but I don't want to go further than that and get to hear. So they do allow us different angles to attack these games. But I think that's the first and first and foremost that I would tell people that are just getting into baseball betting. Understand that the.

18:39Just the full game money line bet has changed drastically from what we know in the past because now you're only getting. Five innings from a starter and you're going to bullpins pretty early. And you better know how taxed is that bullpen how good is the middle relief. What do you think about the closer situation is that guy even available that day because he might be overworked and all of that. So all of that gets him to cap the whole lot more. Yeah, and if anybody out there listening, just kind of wonder why we're going to stop it. We kind of brought it up yesterday. And this was it. I'm going to ask Matt some questions just kind of from my standpoint too. I think it will apply to a lot of people out there where if your betting is regularly as we are. I recommend at least to kind of picking some sports that you're going to kind of be experts. Try to use your expertise in and kind of lean into the most spend the most amount of your time. And baseball was a sport that I was handicapping on a daily basis 15 years ago and was betting. And it was one of those that OK as I kind of expanded sports that I was betting. Didn't have as much time for it was getting way more into the NBA.

19:39I've been doing for a long time now. And baseball kind of fell by the wayside and like you just said, it has. I have seen it change massively how people handicap the sport, how they break it down. The stats that you'll lean into that will hear Adam Burkling into that will hear Gil bring up all the time. All this stuff has changed a lot. So really we thought we'd have kind of more of a step back conversation about really how it's changed what Matt considers important. And I'm going to let you go here. But there's a couple like you just hit off right off the bat. So they're like back in the day. It was way more and he'll say this a lot. It's kind of the it's the individual sport disguised as a team sport. And that was heavily how I used a handicap back in the day starting pictures. I am looking for starting quality starting pictures. In good spots with good lines that I'm getting on those guys. And that's usually where I'm starting my handicapping. So based off of what you just said. We I mean I think the sport I'm not going to say the starting picture doesn't. Starting pitching doesn't matter as much in the sport. But from a handicapping standpoint. Does it not matter as much as it once did in bullpen's and closers are mattering more.

20:39Well certainly doesn't in full game betting, right? Because again, like I said, I mean, we've gotten to a point where the vast majority of starters are just not going past. Six innings anymore. And a lot of them don't even get to six innings, right? Like if any of you play in a in a fantasy sports league that that is quality starts. Like you understand how hard it is to get a quality start these days. Which by the way, if you don't know what a quality start is, you have to go at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs. And there's hard to come by because people just don't go six innings anymore. So so real quick. And even if even I could even in theory. Approach betting it the same way in handicapping started with starting pitching. I'm sure everybody started pitching still anyways. If I wanted to lean heavily into that. What's changed is now I have way more places offering those markets that maybe it's just better for me to bet the first fives and stuff like that. Remove the unknown. Move the unknown. The unknown at that point is how long are they going to leave him in? Oh, but even if because the other thing is which makes baseball different. Yeah, we see guys cruising. We see guys cruising all the time. And managers are just different.

21:39And some managers just pull a guy. It doesn't even matter if he's only thrown 70 pitches, but you get to like six innings, especially these younger dudes. You're out like they're pulling you know. And so there's definitely that the other thing too is you go in and handicapped these these lineups according to. The picture that they're going up against which is another really good way to kind of attack like reverse engineer what you're talking about. I always start with starting pitching, but there are lineups that are lefty heavy that just that hit righty is much better or vice versa that just hit lefties so, so, so much better right. Okay, real quick. So back to the day that would have been a thing still right right right. Righty lefty splits how you doing against those now have we evolved more beyond that even are it or is it. Are you looking for specific. Okay, maybe you're getting the righty lefty matchups that you like and you know the lot of left handed batters that can hit the right hit the right handed pitchers well. But even as it is it types of pitches even that you're getting into these days or not really that's more when it comes to if I'm.

22:39If I'm if I'm doing props on a pitcher. So if I'm doing props on a pitcher right there are teams that you know and again that because baseball stats have gotten so granular right. This is why they struggle against sliders. They struggle against high below starters and all these different stuff like that and like that's where you can go in and attack like some of the strike out props and things make some of some of these guys because these lineups just don't hit X as well and and he excels in that certain area and all of that. So lots to talk about that will get some more in that and certainly in the next week as well. But some more questions here on those side by me. I'm going to make sure the baseball batty. A numbers game on FESET, the sports betting network. Numbers game here on Beeson continuing on here with the major league baseball discussion.

23:40No, we are going over there. Pebble Beach. You see that these guys are. Oh, no, do I want to look a rock and roll? I actually have it. I didn't look at the. I didn't look at the scores. I don't know if anything bad has happened yet. We got we got into a great baseball conversation. Hopefully people out there appreciate some of that. Has anybody done anything? Actually, but Tia one under up to eight. Well, Ricky Fowler, Ricky one under. Did any McCarthy one under? Nothing. A whole bunch of evens. I'll see Jason days one over. Yeah, he was he you were not him at all, right? I don't know. Yeah, he was popular this week because Glover one over. You can't do this because it's an individual sport and that's way too easy to. To do bad when you're when when it looks like you're trying to do good. But was there a more obvious dead last and Brian Campbell in this tournament? Oh, let me let's see what the let's see what Kelly's bottle said. I Kelly's bottle says no, he has not lasted last. It was Joe Heismeth.

24:41Hmm. Mine was Campbell. Heismeth was second though. Second. You know how often we say like, you know, if Schaeffler's not number one, you're probably doing it wrong. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, Schaeffler's not number one. You're probably doing it wrong. We're why is Campbell looking like the bottom did. But I can tell you this. My model is pretty good as as the guys at the bottom though, um, Campbell, Roy, pot guyter, Heismeth. Yeah, pot keeper probably should have been a fade. Yeah for us this week, all of those guys were at the bottom of my model. They're all at the bottom of the leaderboard right now. They're guarantee four rounds. That they're not going anywhere. You know what I know. by the way, another birdie for Ricky Fowler. Ricky Fowler. Let's go, Rick. He likes going himself Rick these days because he's a grown man. T-5, he's a man, he's 40. He's almost 40. T-5, 200, 800 for the tournament.

25:42Let's go. Go, Ricky Fowler. Okay, actually, I lied to you before, by the way, did not actually have my model pulled up. The bottom would be still Joe Heismith. Joe Heismith, potgator, Marco Pennch. And then Campbell and Stephen Fisk. Pennch also down at the bottom. So your model was correct on that too, on him as well. Yeah, I'm not the best course for it. Yeah, I am, I'm telling you though, like, if we, I mean, Shefford did what he did last week, I'm not going to freak out about Shefford, but yeah, Ludwig, we, oh boy. This is not been a good looking start for Ludwig Oberg. So, I mean, we should go ahead and we can hit that real quick here, but we say on the podcast sometimes about dudes that we're going to hold off on betting. I'm going to hold, I will not be betting. I will not be betting, Ludwig anytime soon. Well, and you know, the most obvious places that we probably would have been excited to were the past couple of weeks anyway. Say, not really, Pebble, that you really, really been looking at him, right?

26:44I don't know, well, I guess next week, you would, it could be a good course for him, but I'm with you. It's a, it's a wait and see with him right now. It, it, it just seems like something, just seems like something's been off with him for, for a hot minute now. Mm-hmm. And I don't want to, uh, I don't want to go along with the ride, on the ride. He doesn't win often enough for me to go along on the ride with him. So, no good there. Yeah, guy, no, they got one home with him early last year, which was nice, but yeah, it's been, it's been struggle for a while now here. So, the other thing, I guess, like, so we were coming into that as we were going into the break is, the other thing that I bet, I mean, maybe even more than anything else, just like pitcher props, you know? And so, going in, looking at a pitcher versus a lineup, seeing what the strike out total is, seeing what the total outs total is, and things like that, and then going in and deciphering, is this too low or is this, or is this too high? And so, you go in and it's not an automatic that every time Paul Schienz takes the hill,

27:44that he's gonna go over his strike out total, because obviously they adjusted so high with whatever, but where you find kind of a decent amount of edges in my personal opinion is the super middling, numbers of strike outs on dudes, the four and a halfs and five and a halfs that are put out there, because that's where you can really dig in and be like, okay, he actually does have an advantage here, because he throws this a lot, this team struggles against this a lot, they don't have a really good platoon advantage against him, there's very likely to be an outcome where he gets to the requisite number of outs that you would need to make it a positive EV bet for strike outs and things and stuff like that. And so, that's where I think the handicapping really does, get kind of fun for me, we weirdly geek out on stuff that a lot of people would find tedious and figure whatever it's all about, but yeah, but that's where I kind of geek out on that, it's like you find a dude who you think is, he's an alright enough pitcher, he's not outstanding and he's not terrible,

28:45he's got the middling number attached to him and then it's like, okay, let's go and look at this lineup, what do they do well, what do they do poorly, how has he looked the last few starts, is he kind of rocking and rolling right now, and then you kind of like make your bets accordingly to that. And you're going off a lot of it, just like we are with golf, just like you are in a lot of sports, recent form with like a starting pitcher, right? Especially what has he looked like those past three, four starts? And we'll have, we'll have sport on next week, we'll talk to him over, Fang Gras, but you'll hear me reference, like Fang graphs a lot, baseball reference a lot going in, looking at advanced stats and things, because the reason we look at advanced stats is most of the stats that we talk about in baseball are stats that have happened already, but they're not forward looking, right? Like we're just talking about what's already happened. The R.A. is what has already happened. Like your batting average is what has already happened. We try to look at expected and like where should this be, should he be better than he is right now? How does this look like? What went on with all of that? Because those are predictors, right?

29:47Like we're trying to predict whether the guy has been lucky, unlucky, that's another thing that I'm sure y'all reference here all the time. Oh yeah. Batting average balls in play, like you know, like Babip and things like that, and that's for a pitcher and for a batter, right? Like you can look at it on both ends. Is a pitcher. He's fielding independent pitching, right? Is a batter, you know, is his Babip like just super, super low? Like you know, there is just a, because not every, you're not going to crush every baseball, but you still get hits when you don't crush a baseball. And so that's where the batting average balls in play kind of levels things out with all of that. And if a guy is super, super low, it's pretty unlucky because the ones that he's not crushing are not falling still, right? He's not finding that little hole. Little flares don't drop, the different things like that. And like these are all things you have to take into account in the same deal flip side to a pitcher, right? You're looking and you're going, wait, wait, wait. This batting average balls in play, unless they're just terrible, right? I mean, if they're a bad pitcher, then it could be super high. But like if they're middling all the way up to higher tier

30:47and you can kind of go in and go, hmm, last five starts. Babip's been like way inflated. He's due for some, some positive regression here and all of this. And you can take that into your handicapping as well. Okay, I love it. I have some basic bad questions for you for baseball. I mean, we don't do this very often, but I think a lot of people know money line versus run line. But maybe these are people that bet football in basketball all the time, right? They're used to betting spreads. And if they're going to bet a money line, it's minus one twenty one twenty five. Maybe that's the steepest they're looking at. Now they're going into baseball and looking at minus one seventy two's. And oh boy, I don't want to play that. Let me roll it late run in a half. At what point do you, is there a point for you where you're looking more at run lines? Is it, do you suggest any everybody should be looking just at money lines unless you're doing your true, your true own ratings yourself for these teams? And what you think, you know, projecting actual final scores, what would you suggest for the newer bettors out there would be? Yes. So I will on occasion bet run lines.

31:48I don't do it as many as much as other people. Yeah, right. I didn't used to. Obviously, the other thing about run lines, you're typically wanting to, you're wanting to bet road teams with run lines, as opposed to home teams. Because if a game is tied and one run comes across you, it's over. So that's another thing to think about too. If you're looking at a run line, you kind of want it to be a road team because there's no incentive for them to quit scoring in the top of the eight, thinning or ninth inning or whatever or something like that. But, you know, again, if the tie game home team scores games over, you don't cover the run line, you know, I guess a great little tidbit. So something to, to think about if you're going to play run line more, more times than not, you'd like to, you'd like it to be the road team to guarantee that ninth inning at bat. I, there are games though. I'll just pass on if the money line just gets too out of control. Even if I like the favorite, I'll just, it's, it's still baseball. Round ball, round ball, round bat. Like we said, weird flares drop, seeing eyes, singles, swinging bunts.

32:51I mean, you know, like, I mean, it's like you asked me the other day. I'm like, how often you go into late double digits and NBA games, right? It's in a certain point. It's just, there's a lot of games we can bet. You really want to go, you know, right? You know, pretend, pretend Paul Schienz played on the Dodgers. And the Dodgers were playing the Rockies. And it's like minus four. Yeah, like, whatever, something like that. It's like, are they going to win that game a whole lot of times? Sure. But like, it might even be a fair number. I mean, you might even be getting some value on that number, right? But even Paul Schienz gives up weird hits and flares and can get a blister on his finger and have to come out. You know, whatever and all of those things. So, yes, I will, I will forego betting even strong positions just because that's just not my style. I'm sure there will be other numbers guys in here, right? No, it's just this. No, I'm not sure. But like, I think that's not my style. Okay, real quick. And we do have our baseball betting guide coming out here. V's in February, 17th at Emperse Gents and Lewis do a lot of great work with that. Okay, real quick. Any other thoughts?

33:52Some of the new popular bets, right? We hear a lot about first standing. So you hear a lot about the anytime home run hitters, anything like that. Is that something how often do you bet? Should people be staying away from that stuff? I wouldn't necessarily stay away. I will, there's just a lot of variance in that. Yeah. And like, if you're willing to take the rollercoaster ride, then sure, I don't know if a lot of people can deal with it. You might lose that 10 days in a row, you know, if they don't play that. Put a bow in this one and come back. A numbers game on Fisent, these sports betting network. Numbers game here on Beeson, these sports betting network. Ricky Fowler, three birdies and three holes. Let's go, Rick. To nine under. Where's Isaiah? Is he having a party downstairs, you think?

34:53Does he have a Ricky Fowler watch party downstairs in the Beeson offices of Circa? Does he have a, do you have a Ricky ticket? Probably, but he's like the biggest Ricky Fowler fan on the planet. Because, you know, he's still from like that age range. Loki, I made a Ricky ticket. Outright? Yeah. For you. I got top 20 on him, that's it. But it was just a, that was more a formal thing. Well, that's my, that's my maverickly, nearly out right. Oxfabetia, two under, 20 feet now, one under. They all trail Rio Satsune, who is sitting at tenor. He's yet to tee off. I can't wait for the reaction on long shots next week if, uh, Tony Fienau wins this event. Because guess what, Matt? I don't know that I'm going to, I don't know what I'm going to say. I don't really have a feeling I'm going to have much to say about it. It's going to be the most random blip like on the, you know, right? Like, we really supposed to read into that. Yeah, well, if not of these puns like this still also will, like I said, easy pins first two days. Let's, let's see what these dudes look like on Saturday and Sunday.

35:55Yep. Also, this is like the most gorgeous playing, perfect playing conditions. I've ever seen in pebble. It feels like we should get on a plane and go. When we leave out of here, I think Ben can pick us up on his way back. For the Texas, Ben, Ben can swoop in on his PJ and pick us up. We'll go up there real quick. Okay, so let's get to some of our plays. We can start with mine. I have Pearson, Cody, Overview, Satsune. See what Kim over JJ spawned. Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry. So those are the three plays that we have in there for the golf today. Those are head to heads and for round two only. And then we talked about this earlier in the week. Orioles and pirates over on their win total Yankees and Dodgers under on theirs. And I will throw in a bonus bet that you get just for listening and watching here. That's not on the screen. And guess what that's going to be? Damien Lillard to win the three point competition. I'm going to bet it. I'm betting it. He's going to win it. All right. I like it. I like it. I I wrote two down in the sheet. I don't really know that I'm going to be able to sit through the three point

36:58contest though and not have a Dame Lillard bet on bet going. I'm with you that feels it feels bad. I went Tyrese Maxi in Donovan Mitchell. That's where I'm going to go right now to win the three point contest. We're in through these a little bit earlier. Maxi with the most makes an attempts per game from that wide open range. Which, you know, you're looking at what people have shot for three points all this year. I do like to do the wide open looks just okay. What does it look like in a game where there's a little bit more pressure. But also that wide open look like they are going to get in the contest where there's a little bit of pressure as well. So Maxi and I'm going to go Donovan Mitchell. You took him in the draft. I waffled back and forth between him and Jamal Murray. I'm going to go Donovan Mitchell though. So I'll plus 750 on them. Both those guys feeling a little bit high. And again, I think the one I'm going to kind of save. So obviously this is not it's not like I'm going to make a ton of any of these guys hit. I think I will add one more Matt. And it's either going to be, it's either going to be Dame. Because I just just foam on. I don't want to miss out on Dame winning this. Or like we talked about.

37:58If I see Norm Powell drift to a ridiculous number. All at him as well. Phil Bobbitt. Daytona 500 best from Phil on the show outright. He's got Kyle Larson 18 to one. Ty Gibbs 41. Cole Custer 81, which that's just a rock solid. That's our name. Jimmy Johnson 81 and Riley Herbst 125 to one. We are. Oh, I'm also on Kyle Larson. But no one cares about my opinion on that. That's just a complete tale. It's not that nobody cares. Nobody should care about your opinion on that. Yes, the only thing they should care about is that I have a better number. Because I used a bonus thing. That's right. That's 22 and a half to one. There was a betting lesson from that. Yes, I have 22 and a half to one. The betting lesson was not about NASCAR for Matt Brown. No, taking advantage of opportunity. Exactly. Yes, matchups for Phil. He's got Gibbs over. Well, boy, Zillich Conor's Zillich. That's what we're going to say. Yeah. And Kyle Larson over Austin Cindrick Michael Merdow over Ricky Stenhouse minus 114. Three matchups for Phil Bobbitt. And what we had Matt Grissom bets for today.

39:01Kansas State Muddyline versus Iowa. Make sure to check these out. One Ben Wilson on the call is the rumor. Or at least crashing live shots out there on one of them. Yeah, TCU Muddyline plus 120 against Vanderbilt. And Arizona Muddyline minus 160 versus Stanford. I believe we got some season longs from Grissom as well. To win the college baseball world series. Arkansas plus 1650 Texas 17 to one. Oregon State 30 to one Florida 40 to one Florida. The Florida Gators not Florida State. TCU 50 to one. And then to make college baseball world series. Oregon State 4 to one Florida plus 450 TCU five to one. No, unless you on there, it's the it's the it's the hate. It's from Arkansas. He went to Arkansas. That's fine. Yeah, he's got to buy us against us. It's a good Arkansas. They are in fact very short shot though. Yeah, they are the short shot. I am I was yeah, I was giving a little crap to about Florida State not making his list. But Matt Grissom has he's been a big Florida State supporter in the past, so.

40:01I'm a lettuce line. LSU has what's the deal with Oregon State. And they are incredibly loaded to me like they are. I'll see you like so loaded. I mean, I think that's not shocking. What I always wonder about, especially these days, like how does Oregon State just keep reloading? Like there's been a thing now for like 20 years. Like Oregon State baseball. You're doing your thing. You're acting like there's like it's the Pacific Northwest. Are there a lot of great baseball going on out there? Well, at least it's I mean, it's not like it doesn't snow there. So you can you can play that. Well, I know that but like I don't we are we ever talking about Oregon or Washington or Washington State football or a baseball or anything. Or Oregon or Oregon, but I mean Oregon. They got a Nike money. Yeah, I feel a night. Yeah. Don't like they shouldn't be bad. They can feel a night money. So it's one of those films where you look and you go. They should be good every single year. Well, if you want to specifically just here at Bad Wilson, he will be on the Oklahoma Texas tech game that starts in 15

41:02minutes and TCU Vanderbilt. What do they say? Flow some flow something. Yeah, I would really. Flow based flow flow baseball. I hate that you asked the question. I don't know. Flow baseball. Why do we not? And I believe in this especially in right now when there's nothing else. How's this not until? Why didn't you know normal television? It probably is. I'm assuming it's on ESPN National with Ben Wilson's on the call. Why wouldn't it? It's that flow baseball. What do you say? I like that. I like that Ben's text and with always really good matchups here. Whoa. Is this a real one? Is this real from Sean? It is. What we got Chris Paul announces this retirement. Oh, man. All right. He's going to go out like that. Yeah, but like that feels sad because he wants to play and like nobody wanted him. Like he was just getting sick of being used as a little trade ship here. Wow. So he's done 21 seasons. Chris Paul, hell of a career man. Hell of a career. Insta Hall of Famer. Yes. Insta Hall of Famer. And you know what?

42:04One of those guys we like to talk about the eras all the time. And we were talking MJ LeBron a little bit earlier. But you kind of you had that in between era too, right? Where that some there were some guys that that mattered a lot. Oh, Chris Paul. I guess basically in LeBron's era the whole time. But you know what I'm saying? That mid 2000's era with some of those guys were making an impact. You'll matter for all you're always matter. Man, you look down mellows the Chris Paul's those type of guys. It's like you look you look down and J.R. Smith's. If you got a base if you got a basketball reference, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 all star seasons for him. You get multiple different MVP votes for him along the way. I had to double check one stat that's going to blow your mind. This guy averaged and again, like, you know, at one point it's called the point God, you know, multiple seasons of double digit assists average over the course of a season before

43:05assists were cool. Yes, they're cool now, you know, but like before assists were cool. I think if you're of a certain age, you remember the golden age of Chris Paul. I think there's, I think some people are going to like, guess go, oh, that old dude retired and it's kind of like, no man, Chris Paul retired, okay? Chris Paul was awesome. Can we go, you want to do a little trivia here? Yeah, let's do it. Top 10 assist leaders of all time. Name as many as you can. John Stockton. Okay, number one magic Johnson. Who's number two? Chris Paul. Chris Paul is number two. I believe that occurred this year. I think it was this. No, no, no, no, nobody's 500 ahead of Jason kid. Jason kid three. I just tipped you one. But Chris, the Chris Paul, John Stockton finishes their career. Chris Paul played for how many years now? 21 21. He is still over 3,000 assists behind John Stockton. It's just that that's stocked in assist numbers. Just there are certain NBA records that are really didn't truly never be broken. That was going to be a very tough one to break.

44:06All right, what else you got? But like the other thing here is like, I mean, we're talking about. Remember two, like we talked about as a cis so much Kelly. He has multiple seasons of averaging nearly three steals a game too. Yeah, yeah, he's up there on the steals a little still. I mean, it's just he's guess what? He's number two behind John Stockton. Yeah, I mean, it's just so so much. Steele's assist goes one, two, three, Stockton, Paul, kid. He averaged, I mean, in his heyday, we are talking 20 points a game, double digit, double digit assists, nearly two and a half or more steals a game. And they know he gave you a handful of rebounds to go along with it. Good on Chris Paul and I'm glad he's I'm glad he's decided he's not going to go be sad somewhere else, you know, or all of that. Or Kelly, I am mad don't go in here. Money moves, prop points, make it rain all still coming up here.

45:06And good luck on all your bets this weekend.