A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story now is down. Swandles, idiots who believe in athletics. This is a numbers game with Gill Abyss after Conn Feeson. A numbers game here on Feeson these sports betting network. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin, made my little on-the-break bet. I remembered about Kyle Larson. Nice. By the way. Did you bet it twice? So here's the thing. This is what's interesting about this. But the reason I asked you, do you bet at one of the books that's available here to us in town? Very glad you brought this up, because I didn't know where you were going with this. Yes. All the time. So I had a little 25% profit boost thing just sitting in there. And so my 18-to-1 on Kyle Larson became 22 and a half-to-1. Yeah. And Jim does a great job with those. So I'm getting 22 and a half-to-1 on a guy that is available 18-to-1 everywhere across the entire... I looked at every single book. There you go. Look, this is one of those doesn't matter how much you bet,

1:00how little you bet, right? Like, there are certain books. If they're going to give you a... No sweat bets, free bets, like use them on something, right? And then the boost. Yeah. I mean, you are talking about the one book in Vegas, at least, that will regularly give you multiple types of boost. So, yeah. Got to check out. Sure. I mean, it's a $50 max. But I mean, I'm... I'm taking 18-to-1 and making it a 22 and a half-to-1. Yeah. And honestly, I know nothing about NASCAR. I'm not betting... I'm betting more than $50 bucks on an outright end. Exactly. Exactly. So it's like, you know? It's an easy decision. Yeah. Yeah. So there it is. In 2022 and a half-to-1, Kyle Larson. Ty's paying full and gold there, too, which is good to know. There it is. So I'm... I'm in on that. Put a bow here on the NL Central. Like I said, I do have a Pirates win total bet over... The pitching staff is very good. I believe that the additions to the lineup is going to be enough to get this team pretty close to 500.

2:01So I do like the over on that 76-and-a-half that you can find out there. The reds are an interesting case here. Like I said, plus 370, I bet this team the last two years when this division have not gotten over the hump. This is probably the best version of them. So if I pass on them, I think I would have so much regret if they did win this division. I think it's the best version of the three of the years that I would have bet them to win this division. So I will say that that is at least pending. I don't know if it will be a two-make-the-play-offs, yes, or just an over on the win total or if I just go ahead and say, let's go ahead and play them plus 370 to win the division. So there's something going in there on the reds. Cubs are too short for me. I know why everyone loves them. I believe that they're going to be very good. But in a division, I think they'll be super competitive. Plus 120 just not enough. I'll be there. I'll be there. The win total is almost telling you that, right? This is going to be a bunch division. That's where they're expected the wins to be. Do you agree with what we've heard in the past couple of days, the second best team in the national league, do you?

3:02I don't know. I think the upside is certainly there for them. I'll put it this way. So the projection systems out there are kind of all over the place with the Cubs to kind of let you know just the polarizing opinions on what the peak is for them. There are four that are kind of that everybody looks at. There's like the Davenport, Pakota, fan graphs puts out there. There's oopsie that has come out now that everybody uses. Even the bat is one Derek Cardi. I know we've had him on the next few different times. So the Cubs, Davenport at 83 and a half, Pakota. I mean, 83 Pakota at 90 and a half. So you can see a six seven and a half win difference between Davenport and Pakota. Fan graphs has them at 85.9. The bat at 87.4 and then oopsie down at 83.7. So again, we have two at 83 and change all the way up to as high as 90 and a half here on the Cubs team. So that's kind of the different.

4:02You don't really see that type of dispersion between the different projection systems out there very often. But that does let you know kind of the polarizing nature of this question. Yeah, yeah, possible. Wide ranging down outcomes and think. So that one for me. Milwaukee is pretty steady as. As you go. Well, pretty steady as an under team from the projection systems. I mean, we're sitting here at 84 and a half. Davenport at 81, Pakota, 80 and a half. Fan graphs at 82. The only one that has them over is oopsie at 85.2. But you can see that's only a half game. You know that they have them over. So projection systems not as high on the brewers as the market currently. Interesting. Okay. I like it. So anyway, that's how I would go about betting this one. I think I said I will probably end up on some sort of reds deal. I might play them to the absolute peak of their tail, which would just be. Win the division, win the NL.

5:03Maybe even a tiny sprinkle in the World Series, which is never going to happen with the Dodgers being the existence. Brewers of those four you believe least in. The one that I certainly do not feel is worthy of a bet. Okay. Because I don't have that big of a separation between them and the reds. And the reds are plus 370 and they're 220, which to me is is just unbeatable. Yeah. And then we went over cups. Right. But probably most likely to a division, but you could also see a way worse outcomes. Yeah. No, absolutely. Okay. So move on here to the AFC North, a division that is I'm sure going to have a ton of different debate going on here. Because you have the Ravens and the Bengals at the top. Then you have the Browns at the bottom for sure. And then you have the Steelers somewhere in the middle where we don't really know right now what's going on. I expect Aaron Rogers to retire. But he might not. He could come back and be mediocre again. He could come back and be average. Yet again, or they're going to be in the quarterback market trying to find somebody else. I doubt they want to just go into the season with Mason Rudolph. They've kind of tried that multiple different times and it hasn't worked out.

6:04There's really no upside. It feels like for two decades. He's just no upside. Yeah, there's none. Yeah. Yeah. I'm glad that you just said that. You want me to look it up? How old is Mason Rudolph? Because he's the oldest, whatever number you're about to say right now. 30. He's the oldest 30 year old. There has ever been in the history of the NFL. He's been on the Steelers for 26 years at this point. The guy is 54 years old. I don't care. He's Danny Almonte. I'm telling you right now. There's no, there's just no way that he's 30 years old. But I don't think they want to go into the season with him. If Aaron Rodgers does retire, they'll be in kind of a quarterback conversation. One of these free agents. One of these dudes that maybe you try to trade for or whatever. I mean, it's a shame for the 49ers are kind of digging inside and not going to trademark Jones. Because, you know, that would be a spot for him to go in. He would start. He's. In my opinion, probably better than Aaron Rodgers is at this point in his career. Probably. You know, at this point, you're in his career. And that would probably keep him at least on their winning ways. But maybe if you're this, maybe for the Steelers, maybe you'd do what we're just talking about with, with the Cardinals, right?

7:08You, and you said the Pittsburgh Steelers, like, if you're the Steelers, maybe you need to be the Cardinals and realize we're not going to win right now. It's currently constructed. And we might need to break this thing down to build it back up. Yeah. Very much so. Look, I. Steelers. That's why no interest in betting anything on this team. Yeah. Like zero interest. That, that, that division number could be six and a half to one. And I would not be interested. I probably was just going to bring up with it. It's just the. I think there's a lot of tape. Well, look, it's great that we have all these odds early. It's fun. Me and Matt love talking that. Sorry. Minus minus 110 Ravens plus 230 Bengals plus 450 Steelers 12 to one Browns for the, for the radio people. Yeah. Good job. Yeah. We love talking all this stuff as soon as it becomes available. And yes, there are some bets that present them. So I don't know how you do anything with the Steelers. Positively or negatively until you figure out what the quarterback situation is going to look like a little bit closer. Yeah. I mean, there is a world that exists where if Aaron Rogers retires and they can't get anybody in free agency.

8:08That they're way closer to the Browns than they are the Ravens and Bengals. Oh, yeah. Like it, because if you're, if you're going into the season with Mason Rudolph, like they already are anyways. If you're going into the season with Mason Rudolph, you, you pretty much know what you're sealing is. Like you're sealing is defined, which is you're, you're praying to go 500. And here's the probably go 500 again and then you get another middling pick. And you can't do anything to alter the franchise. Yeah. It's just repeat process, right? Yeah. At the worst place, you can be as in the middle. And it is the, you know, almost like to see them start angling that way. Yeah. If you don't, no, the problem is, you know, kind of transition to the other teams. I'm not exactly sold. Like if you're Steelers, Fan Steelers, back or back there, I actually lean a little bit more towards Rogers coming back. But I do think it's very, very up in the air. Well, okay. Let's say you're a big Rogers fan, big Steelers fan. Rogers comes back. Angles have had their issues over the years, especially with staying healthy. I have no idea what to, I don't know exactly what to expect from this Ravens team. I'm not running to lay minus 110.

9:09Absolutely not. Like they think it's the worst futures. I think it's the worst odds attached to a team. Yeah. That there is in the division. In the division. I agree. I think it's a terrible number not something I could bet right now. My point is though is I think they're outside of Cleveland. In theory, this division could still go a lot of ways. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw bad Ravens like we saw last year that we see that carry over a little bit this season. And if the Bengals have more injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and that defense is still hasn't gotten any better, I can't sit here and say the Steelers definitely can't make that, make that jump. No, I mean, we saw it last year. I'm, and this has absolutely nothing to do. It's a running joke around here, right? Because I would tell she enjoyed burden and all the stuff and brought us to the greatest college. Yeah, you're in the office. You're in the middle. You're in the middle. But what I will say though at this number, they're the only team you would feel comfortable betting. Yes. I mean, like the Browns are never winning this division. Browns are winning and I got too many questions right now with the Ravens and Steelers, but they're off season. So the only number to bet is the plus 230 on Cincinnati.

10:11At least with Cincinnati, you, you have the most important questions answered, which is you have a great quarterback and you have weapons for him to throw to work. You can't say about the Ravens. The thing about the Ravens is is you got a good quarterback we think, but he does not, he doesn't even have a one, much less two different guys that he can go to, whereas Joe Borough definitely does with Cincinnati. And you have to assume that they are going to spend the bulk of their draft capital and stuff in the off season on the defense because you just, he was scoring 30 points way too many times in losing games. I think it's a good betting lesson for us. And it's awesome that we've have these books released in so many markets early. It's just identifying what's, you know, what could be a good bet now? What, what teams do you need to wait on to see what happens more this off season? And it's a long time before we kick off week one, right? And different, these different teams, I think are going to require different waiting periods. Some might be good to fire on now, but they kind of goes back, we were talking AFC East yesterday, right?

11:11Like the bills, the Patriots, you kind of, you kind of know a little bit of what they're going to look like and what they're going to try to do this off season, and what you can kind of expect to see out of them this, then this off season. If you have a lot of conviction there, go for it. If you have a lot of conviction on the bangles, go for it. I don't, I would expect this number to only get worse from here. Yeah, and I, I do believe what you say though. I think that plus 450 on the Steelers is assuming that Rogers is coming back. I can't imagine it's that number. Yeah, good point. Yeah, we've seen more. Thinking that he's, that he's going to be out. They're about to tee it up at Pebble Beach here in about a half an hour for round number two. We'll give you our round one, thoughts and any bets in our account as we head into Friday. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pro's win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Vincent Pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit.

12:14With Vincent Pro. A numbers game on Vincent. He said these sports betting network. It is a number game here on these sports betting network. As we get ready for some golf talk here, we are heading in round number two. Remember, this is a no-cut event. So we're not sweating a cut here on Friday like we normally would at a lot of these other tournaments. The weather report. The beautiful weather report that the PGA tour puts out just came out. I mean, look at this. That is, that is a, that is a damn fine grass. Is this your first year noticing this? No, no, but it's just that they do it, right? You know, like, no, you're right. The time is well done. It's right. It's right. Whatever. It's always so incredibly beautiful. Anyway, no chance of rain at all today. It is going to be pretty cloudy skies out there. And as like we saw yesterday, the win by the way was what they were right.

13:16It did start to pick up a little bit in the afternoon. Kind of they're saying the same thing again here today. So we're going to be in that like five to 10 mile an hour range for the first half of the day. And then Kelly, we get into the gusts. While, while the sustained wins aren't going to get into the danger zone, the highest range they have on here is about 14 miles an hour, which is nothing we're really all that worried about. We do kind of get back up into that like 20 to 22 mile an hour gusts stuff again in the afternoon. So some of the people on the PMT times could at least see some of their stuff getting messed with a little bit, whereas we did not see that at all in the morning. But we did start to see that a little bit as the as the day wore on yesterday. Yeah, it was cut Sheffler's post round interview. And it's there's some guy you get a lot of boring interviews on golf, right? And you're trying to learn some things from love the post round interviews. You try to learn it, right? If whatever from whoever they're talking to about the course, about the conditions, I thought it was interesting because Scotty, I know he had a tough round yesterday.

14:16But the guy still rarely complains about anything outside of his game. And he wasn't complaining, but he brought up. And I thought it was significant that he brought up the wind definitely changing and feeling it more later in his round and in the afternoon. Yeah, I mean, I'm, you know, one of the things that we do when we finish up to is just what, at least what I the very first thing I do is just look for outliers and see if there's anything that I can do and go and tackle. Now if you listen to long shots, if you listen to us here, you know, I have a bet on Rio, Foxinay, that being said, he gained 5.12 strokes putting yesterday. It's gotta be his best round ever. It's just, you know, the same could be said for San Burns, who gained 5.16 strokes, but at least, state, but at least a well-known good putter. Yeah. Pudding yesterday. It's just those were God. Those rounds are just not going to be repeated very often, you know? And so you almost, you, you, you look at this and I'll let you read the, the, the tweet

15:20that we got from from Justin Ray yesterday, but like the, the stuff that I go in and I, the very first thing I do is look for putty. And then the second thing that I look for is the off the T stuff, because if a guy is typically okay off the T and just had a bad around, let's just spray in it for whatever. You get the yip sometimes. Right. And what, you know, then I will give him the benefit of the doubt with, with that and like, kind of look to back him as, whatever, but like the putting stuff I look to fade more times than not because that is just so incredibly variant. And even more variant on these Poa greens that like the difference between making a missing a putt. I mean, Hadecki made a 42 foot putt yesterday that I watched like go from inside and outside the cup because then it hit like two different bumps along the way. And like if you don't hit the right side of the bump, then he's going to miss it for sure. But it happened to hit the right side of the bump and it went in with it. So it's just, it's especially on these greens. There's so much variability to that that like you can't repeat that.

16:23Yeah, really is. I mean, look, it's something we talk about. You know, for anybody who listens to long shots, we talk about it a lot. I just entering the season and before tournaments and it's why I think for me and Matt, we both dialed at most courses. I'm not going to say this is everywhere, but a lot of courses putting is dialed down a lot because it because of the very nature of it and just the wildly different outcomes that you can see. And again, some guy, yeah, some guys are naturally better putters than others. Sam Burns being up there. Now the numbers he put up, yes, are going to be tough to repeat. It's over five strokes gained with the putter. You don't get tough for anybody, right? But at least he's a well-known good putter. Now, the next guy's on the list. Rio Satsune has well been well documented. That is still with the club. He's struggling with a bit despite the great start to the season here. Tony Finau. Tony Finau is next on the list. He gained 4.87 strokes with the putter in round one. That is something that I would not expect at all to see again here the rest of the weekend. So yeah, very similar to what you're saying.

17:24That's usually if I'm doing any internament betting, especially with matchups, right? Looking to attack that very next round is usually that's what I'm looking to go against. Guys like that. I will just add Justin Ray, I tweeted yesterday. There were well over 300,000 rounds measured by shot links since 2004. Rio Satsune today is the only player in that group to lose strokes to the field off the T on approach and still shoots 62 or lower. That is really hard to do. Which lets you know you put it the lights out. And it's just if you do what you did again, it's going to be unsustainable, right? Like you're just not going to make, I think at one point he, you know, I think I heard him say on the broadcast, he had made 149 feet of putts or something like that, you know, just something insane. And so kids haven't held a season though. I'll give him that. This is someone that was on our radar last year. Well, it's not a fallback, but don't fall back outside of the top 20. That's all I'm saying. Fallback, but don't fall back outside of the top 20. That would cost us here.

18:25You can see the odds if you're watching at home, the live odds 12 to 1 on Rio. You got a little under 10 to 1 on San Burns. He can sit in there plus a 20, 29 to 1 on Fee now and, you know, again, you're going to go, wait, wait, wait. He's only one shot off the lead. How can he be 29 to 1? One, he has been in terrible form to he has one of the worst profiles of anybody because he lost 1.21 off the tee, which by the way, that's almost the only thing he does good these days. And put it at a 4.87 plus. That's just, that is a very bad recipe for Tony Fee now. Nick Taylor also ridiculous punting numbers, the one that I can't, I would never talk negatively about Nick Taylor again, though bad. This is the, you go back the past two years on tour, if you bet outright, so on every single human being, you would have lost money at every tournament they teed up. You would have lost money on everybody except for two golfers, Scotty Sheffler and Nick Taylor. A lot of that has to do with the odds because Nick Taylor wins it like 110 to 1. It's why what, well, so we'll go crazy about him. Is this, is this somebody like trying to let us know that, that they're really on

19:25Okshapetia. Okshapetia, period. All right. Like, like, that's who's winning this, the Okshapetia, period, and the conversation, I am going to, I'm going to have it at Tom Hogue, Tom Hogue, former winner here, you know, this is speaking, we just brought up with form and like, we're Tony Fee now is at his game. Tom Hogue, former winner at this tournament, three shots off the lead and 72 to 1. You can still get him at. Yeah. So, attention will hill because I know he loves Tom Hogue. Yeah. Some of the outliers just, again, you have time to get in if you want to do any of this stuff. We mentioned Burns, we mentioned Hisatsune, we mentioned Fee now, you mentioned Taylor. Denny McCarthy is the only guy, great punter, that I'm not going, listen, I'm saying, he's the only guy that I'm not going to say, he gained three strokes, putting, but like, he's the only reason he's on tour, like he doesn't do anything else for a while. So it's like, I'm not going to do that. But. It's could continue. If you get to Jordan Speed, Jake Nap, Sammy Valamaki, Alex Noren, these are all guys

20:26that gained over two strokes, putting yesterday on the round. So again, if you, if you want to perhaps, if you find anything attractive about trying to fade those guys, some of the dudes on approach that just went nuts, but you can't really fade, got her up at all, Shane Lowry is always a good approach player as his Hogi, more a cala, these are all dudes that are, that are just like, finally getting maybe back in a form a little bit when it comes to like more cala was off for a while there. Lowry, you know, has had been off, but maybe these dudes are getting back to what we know and love about them. I didn't find anything in the approach numbers that really threw me for a loop, at least guys from on the positive side on the negative side. I mean, well, that's what I look at, I think Lou big might bid, I think Lou big might be broke. Yeah. He is. You can't speak yet. You got to stay away from him right now. The only one that really kind of came out to me and maybe I was looking through my bedding eyes at this, but like Ryan Gerard is good on approach. And he was bad yesterday, Ben Griffin is good on approach.

21:30He was bad yesterday. I'll excuse the Gerard one just because he's still, he's still a bit of a newer, younger guy coming up, right? He's still had good finishes already this year, multiple T2s, you're allowed to have a bad week, right? And, you know, again, Ben Griffin, another guy that like typically pretty good on on approach and like honestly, if you look at Ben Griffin's round, could have been something special because he's actually, you know, when we were on the models, he's one of the best par five guys. Yeah. That there, that was on tour all of last year. He bogeyed 14 and then doubled 18. That is three over on two of the par fives. And he still was too under for the, for the day. What is this? Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, I'm distracted. You're Scotty Schaffler with the eighth worst. Yeah. In the field, I think that's eighth worst on approach in the field yesterday. Oh, yeah. Yeah. That's something. Now that is an outlier. Yeah. There's no doubt about that. But I mean, I think, do you make anything about that?

22:30I caught a couple of people like, okay, this, we saw the amazing, the amazing surge back last week. Do you think there's equipment change issues or anything like that going on with him beginning of the year that he's just needing some time to figure this out? I mean, this is two weeks in a row, just awful first rounds. So I do. And I don't know what to read in. I don't. Yeah. I do know, um, I do know that he had moved back to the driver that he, that he was playing last year. Yeah. I don't know about the irons though. But then I, and then I heard him post round yesterday talking about how someone asked and what, you know, what he was hitting on certain holes, right? And he was talking about his three wood. And, say, say it in the past, he would usually bust out driver here and kind of skirted the question like, yeah, I'm not using it as much now. When we get back, let's talk a little college baseball, Matt Gristle. A numbers game on FESEN, the sports betting network, numbers game here on FESEN, the sports

23:35betting network, Matt Brown, Kelly, Bidlin want to get in again, they're going to tee off here in about 15 minutes. I did say that I had three head to head that I played, Kelly, Bidlin, your quick thoughts three played Pearson, Kudy over his socks and a, I played Cewu over JJ Spawn and I played Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry. Like I said, the Ben Griffin thing really stood out. So he was three over on those two par fives, if, if he even just parsed those par fives, which by the way played under par, I mean, they were, they were like the easiest holes in the course. He's, we're talking about a five under round for Ben Griffin. If he birdies them, which again, a lot of the people did, you know, now we're more like a six or seven under round for Ben Griffin as opposed to where he bogies and then doubles one of the other ones. And so I think that that comes back around. So Kudy over his socks and a, he just can't put like he, I mean, he just can't put like he did yesterday. Yeah, you wouldn't think so. He's been good. He's been good. Those punting numbers are, are just huge.

24:35And yeah, I'm on Pearson Kudy this week anyway. So yeah, it's hard for me to disagree with that. See you over JJ spawn. I think JJ's broken jail way, where'd you get that one? I think that's one, that one, I'm telling you say SARS. Okay. Yeah. I got what I'm telling you. Yeah. That is say SARS and then Ben Griffin over Shane. I mean, speaking of guys, Rios had a couple great tournaments here. See who Kim has just, this is round after round week after week. You know, Sundays have been painful, but you know, the sea, we see we're putting experience is an experience. Yeah. So just those are all three head heads that I'm on here on a Friday, but remember, as we said, like, there is no cut here in this. And so, you know, Kelly, I don't know what you think about this, but it's kind of chef, it's definitely dot out. I mean, well, so here's the, the pen placements before we, right before we get to match it so that we y'all can remember the pen placements to yesterday and today are going to be much easier than on the weekend when the amateurs are gone. Right. So these dudes that are at the top of the leaderboard when things get a little bit more difficult

25:37might find things to be a little bit more difficult. So just, I don't think this is over by any stretch with any of these dudes that are in the top. I think if anybody for me, I'd feel comfortable. If you're, if you're a couple under par right now, I feel okay with it, especially if the winds pick up over the weekend. Oh, I agree. Yeah. I've got, I've got some guys that are like three under. Yeah. I don't know if it at all anyways. I know we didn't, I don't think we hit the outright odds key. It is surprised by boy, Keegan feeling this log shot to get you're like, how by the what on burger? Keegan's plus eight 20 and your favorite. I don't know that I'd have them as your favorite. I'm the biggest Keegan Bradley guy in the planet. Godrubs plus nine thirties, mine, I'm Sam Burns plus nine eighty and then Rio 12, the one fits then, then down to like 17 to one, everybody else longer than that. Let's get to Matt Grissom here, college baseball insiders dot com at Grissom on X mat. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing well, how are y'all? We are doing really, really good. I need to first and foremost, I got a bone to pick with you because I do have your plays and picks and thoughts here for the season in this rundown.

26:40I do not see my LSU Tigers anywhere on this list and I need to know what's what's going on with that. Well, not since 2018 has the defending national champ gone back to Omaha. So I don't think that streak is broken with the Tigers, although they're going to be forced to reckon with. But as I'm joined here by another college baseball guy, you've got to hear what he's saying that we're Mr. Mr. Ben Wilson, wow. As he gets ready to call the game on flow baseball, 29, 99, you can purchase that watch great baseball for the next three weeks. He said he was going to do that. I didn't know if he was being truthful or not, but there you go. You get a lot of appearance by the Ben Wilson. Wow. Well, yeah. I mean, he's been under score Wilson, underscore one, underscore, whatever, yeah, whatever. See his family in the country. Yeah. That's how Alexander would put the one guy at Veecin that's destined for great things.

27:41Well, that's why we got to bring a bet. We got to bring him back down to earth when me and Matt are just all I do. I do it at the show. That's pretty easy to be destined for great things whenever you started with a, you know, a bank account of $25 million. I mean, you know, oh, man, Matt, Matt, what, what games are you watching today? Who are you kind of most interested in seeing an action this afternoon? This, the, the best game in my opinion today is going to be Vanderbilt, TCU. That's a three o'clock central time here at Globe Life. We start the day with Oklahoma and Texas Tech. That's going to be a, anything but a pitcher's duel. That camera Johnson's decent for Oklahoma, but Texas Tech hasn't had a good pitching staff in years. And unfortunately for Tim Tatlock, I think tech is going to be in for another long season. I expect a lot of runs in this one. But the three o'clock game complete, obviously. You've got a great matchup on the mound with Connor Finnell and Tommy LePore for TCU. There are two completely different style pitchers. Connor Finnell's not going to zip a hundred mile per hour fastball by you, but he's got

28:46a lot of, a lot of breaking ball stuff is really relying on his changeup, slider mix, but 88 mile per hour fastball. Again, not going to jump off the page at you, but I think this is going to be a lower scoring game. TCU, getting plus money right now, I found that pretty odd considering TCU is, is everybody's kind of darling to make the college world series. So I'll ride with the dog here with TCU and help the Tommy LePore can get five or six innings in deep and keep this Vanderbilt offense at Bay, which they've been for the better part of the last half decade for Tim Corbin. I've really struggled to to put up runs. Matt, you got a couple favorites on the card as well, Kansas State over Iowa and Arizona over Stanford. Yeah, Iowa's got the better pitcher starting, but in Tyler Garin and this Kansas State offense, I feel like it's just in a better place.

29:46Iowa used to be a gauntlet for a really good pitching staff. We'll see what that bodes for them this year, but I think D Kennedy coming back really anchoring that offense. Kansas State should be able to outscore Iowa, they're another offense. It's not going to jump off the page and put up a lot of runs. So give me Kansas State at the short price and then Arizona minus 160, they're tied with TCU's the short shot to win the big 12. Got a really good punch with Smith Bailey and Owen Kermkowski. Trying to remember all these names is new season, man, it's okay, yes. Some of the hardest names ever to pronounce as well, but Owen Kermkowski going for Arizona today. I'm going to lose their stopper of the year in Tony Pluta, the closer, but I still think this Wildcats team is is alive to win anything and in college baseball, you have to lay a lot of juice. It's typically a very favorite ridden Haiti cap. So minus 160, I feel like it's fair when you look across the landscape of all the the

30:49day one pitch, you could make a lot of these favorites or minus 200 plus. So you got to find your spots where you can get them. Matt, no, you got a bunch of futures loaded up. Just real quick for anybody out there, the diamond report, the preview guide that Matt and his team have put together for this season is awesome with scrolling through that the other day, the diamond report.com where you can go get it. Matt, I know let's start with the futures SEC at the top. No shocker to see their Arkansas, Texas. What do you like about these teams and how far do you think these guys can go? Yeah, Jeff Davis not giving the racer back as much credit there about 11 11 to 1 everywhere else. You see the odds on the screen there, circus sports has them plus 1650, I feel like that's a steel considering Dave Van Horn is consistently rumored to be in that Omaha mix every year. He's not finished worse than 18 and 12 in the SEC over the last five years. And we saw him last year in Omaha, you know, a ball to left field, kept them from beating

31:52LSU for some elimination game and LSU ended up going on to win the College World Series against Coastal as we know, congratulations Matt, but I think this year it's the same story for Arkansas, it's pitching staff, pitching staff, pitching staff. And the offense is made up of a lot of portal guys mixed with guys that returned. So I think I think Arkansas is just as alive as anybody plus they get a very favorable SEC schedule, they dodge Tennessee LSU and I believe Texas. So you're looking at a spot where they're going to be in the national seed if they just do the bare minimum that he's done year in and year out in the SEC. And then Texas with Luke Harrison and Dylan Volantis, they've got a true one to punch there, River Roas, another arm out of that starting rotation that's going to be good. They dove into the transfer portal. They got Carson Tinney, the really good catcher out of Notre Dame. I think this Texas team at 17 to one is a steal.

32:56They won the SEC outright last year. I think Jim Schloss-Negel has proven time and time again that he's going to have his guys ready for a Omaha run. And we saw him at Texas A&M a couple years ago, take Tennessee to the wire before the Vols ended up winning. And then I've got some longer shots of Oregon State, Florida, TCU, also like them to make the College World Series. That's a little less of a payout, but you're talking about the top eight at that point. Oregon State has a really good sophomore returning in Dax Whitney, Ethan Clyde Schmidt, also with another great pitching staff there. And then Florida, that line on Florida is just wild. If Kevin O'Sullivan can get to a super regional, he is nine and one in super regional. So basically just go ahead and sharpie them in super regional to Omaha. And then Florida, TCU, or I'm sorry, Oregon State, TCU both, they're going to be really good this year. It's just a matter of winning and getting hot at the right time and make that final push

34:00to Omaha. But I think they can both do it. He is Matt Grissom College baseball insiders.com at Grissom on XU and I going to have a little Arkansas LSU bet on the side here and make Ben Wilson pull that black card out whenever you're up there, buddy. Haven't paid for everything. Appreciate the time and good luck. Thanks guys. A numbers game on FESET, the sports betting network. I thought there was a typo when I didn't see all of you on the list there, but you know, there was Arkansas and he may or may not be from Arkansas. There might be a little home, there might be a little homerism going on there as well. Usually a fair amount of SEC love on the Grissom Betts, too.

35:02I know the SEC kind of dominated its college baseball, but still my first joke to him, too, when he sent bets in yesterday, I was like, uh, your Florida seems to be missing a state at the end of it. I don't know if I could punch this into a graphic. It's a, it's one of those, it's one of the things though, you know, it's, it's warm. It's warmer in the south than it is everywhere else. And so like, I mean, if you're, if you're sitting here, we're starting, I think we're starting in the baseball season right now. Yeah, it's very crazy. We got a, we got a photo yesterday of someone whose two cars were buried under three feet of snow. Well, that's from Fred Courier and Fred lives it like, I don't know. See, I think it just goes from Buffalo to Canada and he's just, he's cleaning up snow everywhere. But you get what I'm saying. It's like, it's very hard for East Coast teams to be good because it's, it's freezing cold. How does this work? Because I've seen this down in Florida, right? It's like the, like Rutgers baseball will play like a month and a half straight right down south. That's what they have to do. Yeah. Yeah. It's like all road games all the time.

36:02Yeah. Fun. So just tough. It's just tough to compete. It was like the turf fields with like the, where they make the, like the dirt paths, right? But it's still just not dirt. It's like just turf. Yeah. It's so, it's, you know, it seems like it's always going to be like SEC and West Coast bias. But it's mainly because they're warm, they're warmer weather and with that, you just, you can get in more work. You get in better player, but, but I mean, players don't want to go where it's snowing when the season starts. They probably played more baseball down south growing up. But I mean, the, all the stuff, yeah, all that's, I mean, seriously, the, I mean, the travel schedules, right? Like it is why there's no Louisiana in Texas hockey players, you know, like, you know, like, yeah, like there, there's no hockey players out of Texas in Louisiana and Alabama and stuff. Same sort of thing. All right. We get, we get a couple tweets here, Matt. I want to catch up on. This one's from Dan Groschau. You know, who isn't drinking beer or stealing food from the family suite? Our future MVP, Kate Gunn. Yes.

37:02Dan's rude away. There we go. Dan, go to the grid, Kate. We'll get Kate. Oh, that would be good. I like this one. Coach Ariel, serious question. We were talking about the AFC North earlier, serious question. Who is the best offensive mind in the AFC North? Isn't it Todd Munkin with him and two stars on defense and two first rounders? Why can't the Browns win the division? 10, 1 in 2025? Because of the quarterback position is the, is the very short of it. Like the short of it is because they are going to start should or sanders at quarterback. I think the other, my, my first thought, a very great, great point. We, I mean, we just brought up. I think there is going to be some surprise. I wouldn't, wouldn't shock me if they're some surprises. The AFC North. It's also one, one other thing too about that team is it is not the Browns offensive line of old. So the Browns offensive line for several years was one of the strengths of that team. And so no matter who you put behind there, at least you knew they were going to have protection, right? This offensive, this version of the off of, of this offensive line, one, it's older.

38:06And not only is it older, it is starting to find a fall off of the cliff. I mean, Cam Robinson at left tackle had his worst season ever as a pro. And I don't know if it's going to get any better, right? I don't know. I mean, teams was he on last year. And so you start to look in like some of these dudes are just getting up there in age and you're, you just decline, you know, the older you get. And so not only do you have a bad quarterback, but you also have an offensive line that isn't near what he used to. So I, I get the point on the offensive mind, right? You know, the best offensive mind is in that division, Joe burrow. Yeah. Probably. That's probably the best offensive. I'm not going to sit here and defend some of the other coaches in the division. I get your point, everybody. Yeah. That's, that was my first thought. Yeah. I mean, and the defense will probably keep them from getting just completely blown out of games. But I don't know if we've, we went through this with Miles Garrett last year. It wouldn't surprise me if we start to hear rumors coming up as we approached the draft about him getting moved.

39:06He wanted out of there. They paid in the bag. The team's terrible. It wouldn't surprise me if he kind of goes back to him and said, oh man, I messed up. Yeah. I messed up. Yeah. I actually, I understand I've only got like two or three good years left. And I would really like to go compete somewhere. I just, it's, I mean, isn't it kind of, I mean, obviously he's a better player, but he doesn't the same kind of conversation as Max Crosby, right? Like it's just these teams need to rebuild, need to get better. You can get, you can get stuff for these types of players that can help you build forward. And I'm using the Brown season a year ago, just the perfect example, like this, your defense can be that good. You can win two awards. Miles Garrett can be that good of a pass rusher. And where does it get you? Where does it get you? Yeah. No, it's not taking you anywhere. Yeah. I think it is a fair point, but the point to me is that the most important position in all of sports is by far your weakest spot. And that's never a good place to be. And if Miles Garrett was on the block, though, whoo boy, Miles Garrett might be better playing

40:09quarterback. Sure. We're saying there's no Miles Garrett for Yannis. Let's make it happen right now. Get this over. Yeah. Let's just get all these superstars moving cross sport like all the different ways that we can do that guys. If you I hadn't checked out chart plays dot com, do it today been around since 2011 free daily reports, real time alerts, public logs and transparent receipts over there. They are trusted by the pros and monitor by the books chart plays dot com. So we are on a break here and in all the sports. And so the three point competition will be happening on all star weekend, which to me is the only thing I care about. I'm pumped. I love it. The dunk competition is now made up of people. You don't really know it's because you it's it's too much for these other guys to go out there and and do that and take the chance on any sort of weird, injure risk or whatever. So gone are the days of people jumping over kias. Do you have a problem with that? No. Okay. No, because here's the thing. As a the kid in me would have a problem with it. The older me that understands the financials of everything and the business aspect of this

41:12that if my if my if my star player went out and let's just say like best case. scenario, high ankle sprained because he was doing some crazy dunk and landed funny worst case scenario Achilles ACL or something or whatever. Right. I would be like losing my mind. I think the absolutely and I agree with you to a degree because with these don't you are asking your body to do something that even these dudes don't do very often. Right. Like they are they are trying to perform acts that they do not do in in regular games that they probably maxing out their athletic abilities. Yeah. And I hear I think the I think what makes it easier. I think it's a very, very easy slippery slope right because it's the I think they're probably some stars that if you saw and this is where a lot of people brought us up. If you saw a bunch of stars commit, I think the competitive nature in some people would say well, if these guys are doing it, then I'm doing it. Right. But the problem is once that starts and this is what we've seen over the past 10 years.

42:14And less and less and less stars want to compete. I think it makes it way easier to fall back on that reasoning and say, you know, and I'm just skipping this. So let's get to the three point contest here again. The only thing that is actually fun on all star weekend. And how about the rookie coming in as the short shot. That is pretty awesome. It's pretty badass. Conquan Apple there at three 30. Your second shot is the guy that's name playing this year. He did not even play it. Amy and Lillard at plus four 10 Devon Booker, five 50 Jamal Murray, six to one as his tires. Maxi, Donovan Mitchell, six 50 Norm Powell, 10 to one and then Bobby Portis way out at 17 to one. If you have not watched con shoot, con is so pure. Yes. He did. It is ridiculous watching him shoot the basketball, but obviously all of these dudes in their own right, very, very good shooters. Do you, do you buy into the narrative of Damien, Lillard coming out?

43:15Oh, man. I love this conversation. He's had nothing better to do than shoot. Okay. Okay. So there's two sides of this, right? They're it's all right. The guy is not healthy. He's not playing basketball. He is way out of his normal daily basketball routine, right? True. What's also true is the man clearly is competing this. He's clearly good enough to be shooting a basketball. He's been doing that. So are you more scared of Damien, Lillard in NBA shape or the Damien, Lillard, who's been sitting at home and is mansion in Portland with his own basketball court getting up. God knows how many shots a day because it's the only thing that he can do from an athletic standpoint right now. This is why I'm buying in on Lillard here is because if you go, if you go and anybody that's ever watched any of these retired NBA guys and they put on about 30 pounds and like also, but like they put up a shot and it still just looks so pure like it's still yeah. So this guy is still going to play basketball. And yes, he's rehabbing and doing all of it, but Kelly, like you just said, it wouldn't

44:19surprise me if he shoots 200 threes a day because it's just undefended spot like whatever like. He's bored. He can't do anything else for the bad. He's just going to shoot. So look, I might end up on him as well. I've got a big. I haven't decided there. I've thrown a few other than I am looking at I am going to I just went over wide open shooting stats in the NBA, OK? Tyrese maxi has the most makes per game. He's making two on five over five looks a game from that is wide open six foot of six feet away as the closest defender. He's 40.5%. Jamal Murray 1.5 makes per game on 3.1 assists 47%. He's hitting that at Donovan Mitchell 1.3 makes on 2.6 attempts 50% clip. He's sitting in wide open threes. Who's are the three guys I'm considering impromptu draft when we come back. Boom.