A Numbers Game | February 12, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00And number is called the story of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill avi Xander on V-Send. A numbers game here on V-Send these sports betting network man brown in for Gil and Kelly Bill and what an hour what a first hour if you did not get it you got to go to the podcast for absolutely podcast feed go check out the show replays on V-Send.com or the V-Send app get it all now man this is yeah we hit a little bit everything. I mean a little bit of a lot of NBA in there yeah but you know I mean he goes out Kelly's here reading a lot of NBA but you also get the this is kind of as as as we were talking about it off air. It's not just what happened last night but it's that's kind of also putting a bow on what we think of these teams as a head in the office right and so any numbers that are attached any player thoughts any thoughts moving forward with these teams and I think that that's kind of a good exercise here as we head to a little bit of a break after tonight only

1:00three games on the slate we've talked Milwaukee Oklahoma Oklahoma City in Portland Utah already will get to Dallas and the Lakers a little bit later but it's kind of a good exercise I think to sit back look at these teams as a whole what is their goal moving forward what are they trying to do what do you realistically think they can pull off what is their schedule look like is there any soft spots along the way do you think you're going to get a better numbers it's only going to get worse et cetera so all these different things you can try and figure out and you got a few days to do it but it's one of those if for anybody out there that you know is a frequent sports better and does multiple sports and it's a weird thing to say sometimes map I love problems to try to figure out right when you think there's a possible a problem that's presented that you can make money off of that is a rarity and this is where I'm talking about with tanking right I I don't know I don't have the right answer for every one of these teams yeah right but like we've gone over the past couple days there these teams have indicated they're going to do something unlike other teams in the NBA and whether we're talking over win totals on teams like we were yesterday

2:05or playing you know the jazz against up in the second half or player pro I love figuring out that type of puzzle so I think it's going to be fun to analyze here especially when we get a little bit of downtime to figure out what we're going to do going forward you're always going to get this opinion for me west coast best coast when it comes to sports and so whenever we have golf tournaments out on the west coast you don't get you don't get just one or two you get three days of country club and let's do it. Oh yeah oh yeah I'll see any glow sticks back here with the crew no one no one don't know stone didn't he didn't bring it back for the crew they don't shame oh man they don't want to uh they're not trying to impress me Kelly like he's not here like he's not here in a week anyway they're sweating Chechia and Canada back there when daddy's got two catching two and a half with Chechia I know that loser's not here in a week anyway it doesn't matter we did get a handy deal is very impressed by the glow sticks little weather report that

3:08the PGA tour put out for us Kelly so if you are by the way this is going to get going here in about a half a little over half an hour 45 I think is what we're looking at so if you do want to put in some first round leaders and this is not to say this is exactly how it's going to go but if you try to if you want to try to game the system here the winds five to ten early on four to eight five to ten and then once we get into the afternoon while it's not one of the deals that we typically worry about like six to twelve eight to twelve we are getting gusts now closer to the 20 mile an hour ish range so there will be some gusts there in the afternoon now as you know gusts come and go if the guys aren't hitting a shot as a gust comes it doesn't really matter but you know it is if you if you think there's any sort of advantage there at all it does not look like it's going to be gusty during the morning session it looks like the afternoon is when those kind of start to come in and stuff and again their gusts guys can just wait and hit until the stuff's done but we want to point it out anyway. Yeah and let's you see I don't know about you I know I bet more first round leader stuff than

4:11you do but the I you know unless there's like big time of rain winds that I can see clear wave I usually tend to look at the early morning guys anyways I just think there's a little conditions are a little bit more easier to expect right you know exactly what you're looking at before they tee off before those markets close for first round leader instead of four hours they knew they had to tee off early so they didn't go drink in the night before. Yeah we're going to do a first round leader draft we'll do that next segment I did make one though a little bit because of that information now if you are betting first round leader this week we are you're probably going to see it's chopped up into the two different courses I avoided the one with Scotty Sheffler in it so yes I think that's a good one good strategy I avoided the course of Scotty Sheffler's playing on landed on Jake nap I ended up not playing him on my main card this week still very high on him good putter on this west coast Poa I think when you're betting first round leaders it's

5:12actually one of our factor in putting way more Matt because you need someone to go out and score right they cannot be hidden getting great approach shots and going up there and missing putts early so I did play a little Jake nap 18 to one is the exact number I got it out if you're watching at home that's the same exact number I bet yeah looking for some you're just looking for a spike round like you'll hear us talk on long shots off which by the way you still have time to get in at least some of the long shots pot if you want to go in and take a check it out you cannot skip through over on the YouTube channel as well so you just go in and think it's the one time we're going to talk about I'm just saying it's okay to skip to the end yeah give you a much time definitely skip the beginning because we're like reviewing stuff and all of that are so definitely skip that part and then you can go in and and then you can go in and start to get our analysis there on on all of that but as we head to to pebble guys pebble is a shorter course it is a course in which we have seen that historically distance wasn't all that big of a factor and then Rory came in last year and just decided he was going to pull the driver out and

6:14cut corners and take different lines that nobody else has taken now there is a argument to be had that he is one of maybe five or six people in this tournament that can even do what he did yeah last year who who who physically have that capability but I did want to point out that if you're watching this thing today and you start going what is he's idiot talking about this guy's like hitting it you know 330 y'all which is just not normally the case at this at this course maybe and this is something I thought about last night killing when we got done maybe people went and rewatched the tournament from last year and saw what Rory did and they decided to take the alternate approach this year where they didn't even know to do it last year right but now they kind of have a blueprint and so you start to look and I wonder if I have a blind spot in this tournament or some bombers oh I'm a little scared too yeah because I went in with the well let me hand a cap for like the 90% of the field not the 10% of the field but

7:16what if the dudes who can hit it on a consistent basis you know 305 310 decide I'm going to give it a world it well especially some of the guys you know like a Chris gotter upright who hasn't played here a ton right to I think that that probably has something to do with it as well if you saw that a year ago you haven't played this event all that often why would and your what your drivers your biggest weapon yeah I think it makes sense I it's it's glad you brought it up Matt I think it's a potential blind spot for me this week is what we've talked about we we have at least talked about at the past couple days I've kind of between that and weather which is extremely unpredictable here I do think I know it's a signature event in people in football done a lot of people are going to run to want to bet this this is a little bit of a kind of like I'm going to bet a little lighter this week because of those factors just weather and I have a lot of beds it's just kind of staking down what you're betting on them because the weather and because of that right do we have a blind spot that some of the big big hitters are going to come out here and try to do that and I was listening

8:19to Pat May on key Stewart talk about the other day key Stewart who's off often covering a lot of these events he said he fully expects it he was he said after last year he fully expects the C driver you say he noted you get a good job noting just the driver usage has gone up period over the past few years but Rory was kind of the first one to really capitalize on that last season I he way he was talking about he almost made it sound like he's going to be shocked if the guys don't pull out driver even more this year well you know what that means I got to get me some Pearson Coody in the account there you go I got a top 20 on him no nobody you're going for no buddy Pearson Coody he's going to get in the winter circle and he's well and he's one of the best putters on this West Coast pole like it's I was looking at those numbers he's top three when it comes to that so yeah man I'm not going to blame you I'm going back to him with the top two we're both on Russell Henley Kelly and I are in a bigger one and done tournament as well what's going on home and we went when we went ahead and went with Henley as well and mainly this is from a strategy

9:23standpoint there's not a ton of courses where we're going to love Henley as much as we do here and taking a guy because this is a big prize pool so this is where you could fire a big gun if you wanted to however you don't get the separation at this course in my opinion with a Rory and a Scotty that you would get at some of these other courses that we're going to play later down the line where their length and the things that's got like Scotty being able to hit a seven iron to six feet every single time where most of these dudes can't do that unless it's like a nine iron pitching wedge or like that's where he's able to really separate but you're not hitting very many seven iron so you know you're not really doing that you know and so I for me I'd rather play them where their skill set and increases the gap between them and the other guy. Yeah it's it's it's similar to the conversation we had about the MX just a couple weeks ago right it's it's a this course isn't quite as easy right I don't want to go with the whole it's so easy that it raises that it raises the floor of everybody but what's what does apply here is what off the tea stuff right and if you are going to be able to

10:27neutralize kind of what these guys do best that I think for one and done at least it's it's it's a I would rather use those guys yet not even a question I'm not even looking even bro Rory won this last year right it's not even a consideration for me really for him at this course had rather use it those types of players at courses that I just think there's even fewer guys that can contend that because of the length that they have off the tea so yeah I do want to glad you brought up wanted done to because it is well I'm saying you might want to be careful a little bit with this course in this tournament bet from a betting standpoint one and done it's a signature event big time money on the line you have to use one of the big times I am never I am I would never if you came to me and said I want to play Scotty because I think Scotty's gonna win I'd be like fine because it's a huge price but like whatever I just would rather save him for a spot where I think his skill set separates him even more I think with this being so wedge reliant and short iron reliant he's awesome best in the world still at all of that but the gap is a little bit shorter you know

11:30so that's kind of where we're at with that we'll get to every single play in our account on the other side and then do a quick little first round leader draft me and Kelly will we're both hot down yeah we're hot down you're here because you want an edge that's what separates listeners from winners but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools the data and the discipline and now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use no secrets no fluff just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with visa and pro numbers game on visa these sports betting network

12:32numbers game here on beast in the sports betting network Matt Brown and Kelly Bidlin getting ready to tee off over there at Pebble Beach it's going to say like those guys even even these even these pros like they're probably waiting to just get out of there so they don't have to pay $77 for you're talking like the guys drinking the night before I'm like they they're not drinking there like that's too expensive for their like they're not drinking it they're not drinking a Pebble Beach parts like I don't know why they're getting out of this so much like I get it I get it with a gust of some of these other courses I don't just don't get it well I get there it's a lot a lot of rich people living right there yes but I mean 1200 bucks around $200 and 75 bucks a hole basically not worth it that's one of those like you never pick up you know like sometimes like you get you get so mad at a hole you're like you just pick it up and you go sit in the cart you're never picking up you're like no this whole cost me $75 like this is zero chance I'm still laughing at Isaiah Riekel's line from before the show we were

13:33talking about different drivers and I was like that's why I retired from golf these drivers got too good I'm spraying it everywhere and I say it goes yeah but it gives you the opportunity to check out the full golf course most people don't get to do that the whole course I played with lasa he's getting better I played with on really is man getting better guys if you have not checked out sharp plays go in the been around since 2011 free daily reports real time alerts public logs and transparent results again been around since 2011 trusted by the pros monitored by the book sharp plays dot come okay you want some breaking news real quick I do break the news we've got more NBA injury information first of all real quick Alex are going to be sideline for a couple of weeks so wizards continue to bail it and that's not the one I was looting to though how about Chris Haines just tweeted out finally the jazz are getting this Utah jazz star Jared Jackson Jr. likely to miss the remainder of the season to undergo surgery on his left knee to ensure his long term health after a localized PVN S growth was discovered

14:39post trade league sources tell me that is why this number is going to eight and a half so it is up to eight and a half in favor of Portland over Utah that would have been good for me to jump on yes so that is why the screen was lighting up so up to eight and a half now in favor of Portland this is all it took to I want to laugh at that because it feels it sounds like we're at Jared Jackson Jr.'s going to miss the rest of the season with a voluntary voluntary surgery that he's going to get I guess but like Utah do this a week ago you should have done this a week ago have you seen the wizards nobody's complaining about what the wizards are doing I said Anthony Davis all the way back to Dallas get his hand looked at so this is and we look listen they heard they heard everybody complaining oh they heard the chirping for shit yeah and they're like okay fun I want to replay that game last night and see if it was a game still in the end of the third quarter I kind of have a feeling those guys would have played longer back you were starting to pick up the vibes yesterday that jazz were here and hearing some stuff so we got we both have Russell Henley in the account I have played Ben Griffin I have played

15:47Daniel Berger and I have played Ryan Gerard and I'm going to be adding a Pearson Coody because now that we talk to ourselves into this whole deal of maybe the driver will matter maybe these dudes will just go and just fire especially if the wind isn't a big deal then uh because I I'll admit I put zero driving distance into the account at all I put very I mean into into the uh into the model so that for me is something that I think I'm going to uh I'm going to go in and take care of here I like it I bet him in the top 20 market outrights for me Russell Henley Maverick McNeely and that's kind of as Matt's betting Pearson Coody Maverick McNeely is kind of my my FOMO outright this week I've bet him the last three weeks it's been good top 20 money I'm going to play him more heavily in that market but bad out an outrate for a guy that knows this course very well so 35 to one Maverick McNeely I did play Shane Lowry 63 to one one of those guys great around the green great out of the sand here if that becomes an issue with more

16:48of the weather I've at least got kind of one weather guy on the card although Henley's but Henley's been a good bad weather player too and then the one I added yesterday I think well I think this is the longest golf outright I've played in the last three years Miss cut Miss cut Miss cut the season for Chris Kirk I'm betting on this week 275. Hey, there's not a cut this week you can't miss a cut you can't miss a cut that's right no cut Chris Kirk in theory his game set up well for this course he played well down the stretch at the end of last season but yeah not a great start to the season that's why you're getting that kind of number on him I love Henley so much I I did play him in the winter without chef for market I don't want to get burnt by Scotty top 10 on Henley top 20 on Henley top 20s on Mav and Shane Lowry Pearson Kudy and Ricky Fowler I'm going back to not only one matchup I could find this week I really liked but Henley even money over hit deck top 20 on Hassanay for me and then a top 20 I'm very very heavy on Russell Henley top 20 Russell Henley does not finish in the top 20 this is going to be a losing weight for me I can tell you that like I will um yeah I think I could hit an outright I'm pretty sure

17:51I could hit an outright and still lose okay that's okay that you're a little bit more heavy on Henley okay it's you know I'm trying to lean into these these these places where I think that it's where we make it we make our money and we talk about it all the time it's it's if you're going to bet golf every week to keep that bankroll I mean active in a live all season outrights are few and far between you can't rely on those to be can to build your golf bankroll season so I'm going to start here with the draft we will start at pebble and I know this is going to shock everybody Scotty Schaffler okay just an actual betting conversation real quick about this I know we have four minutes uh even money for Scotty Schaffler to finish top five on that course today first round then treat you to I might actually bet that it's 40 guys over there yeah 40 guys Scotty Schaffler to finish top five even yeah I think I might bet that actually before we get started here um okay I will go with I'll go with our guy Russell Henley oh did you really and I'm a snake draft okay so now I'm doing my we're doing the draft yeah

18:57I got to okay I'm going to go Henley and I'll go with my two guys Henley and Math all right I'm going to play I'll play the hot hands especially since we were talking about one round um prove me wrong see the wook him I mean like the dude is like yeah outside of maybe got no actually see what was probably the hottest player in golf right now yes he is he is he is he has had the best start to the season on the PGA tour without a win and now now this would and here's the this typically would have been a course where we would have loved see like this is we should have had this conversation you you find fairways he finds fairways good with the irons whatever sometimes he came but sometimes he can't but like that's okay we're betting an outright you know like we're we're we want to are in this situation the wasn't it's one round we want him to just put good for one round and he sucks on Sundays it's not a Sunday that is the one thing of great a great season see who in the average ideally oh boy the Sunday rounds have

19:57not been good these guys just can't close they can't close all right and I'll close things out with Sam Burns okay we're getting about that time where Sam's going to show up out of nowhere well in a good putter you know yeah like we we know Sam's going to show up out of nowhere all right I got one I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the bet the bet Matt just made to rub it in a little bit more I'll go piercing Kudie of course my third pick so Henry McNeely Kudie for me Sheffler C. Woo Kim Sam Burns from Matt Brown all right that's our head of beach course head over to Spiegel I'll let you go first since I since I went first last okay great then I will I'll actually just pick the guy at bet Jake nap okay I'm gonna go I know I'm going in blind but played well overseas says he's feeling good about words games out of whatever I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna go I'm gonna ride blind here on Tommy Fleetwood yeah I have he's he's somebody yesterday my mind kept floating back to the flaker we he didn't say well not a great start to the season

21:00for him by Tommy Fleetwood standards these days over the DP World Tour first time he's coming to the States I'm with you like that again guys that fit this course well right like it's we love Russell Henley Tommy Fleetwood plays the same type of game that Russell Henley does and you could eat very easily say at a higher level so yeah we might be sleeping on him a little bit this week I'm going to go with my second pick a guy that I actually did bet and certainly is capable of going low for a single round I'm gonna go Ryan Gerard Ryan Gerard we've seen him light up courses for one round and so Gerard over there Spiegel asked maybe he can put me together a 60 64 something like that and see if we can't get that home okay I like it I will go one of the last leave off some my card I didn't end up betting anything with him I know that he was popular out there for with a lot of people this week and a West is on him I do like him here though Matt Fitzpatrick will be one of mine you know I'll still I'll still one from each of my long shots come close Fitzpatrick from West Daniel Burger from you all right I'm going to go because you know since

22:04we're talking let's let's kill the FOMO was not have any yeah yeah and we don't need to get something we don't need him to win the tournament we just need him to have one good round Rico the hoey there you go Rico I mean it was it was good to see a little life out of him last week right I mean a brutal start his worst three-week stretch going back you know about a year and a half to start the season that was scary so he did actually put together a good good four rounds last week I'm gonna actually I'm gonna I'm gonna actually bet him here right on what is top I wonder what is top 20 numbers or something like that that's probably because that price is probably drifted with how bad of a seat start to the season he's had I mean 40 to one for a first round leader for a guy that again he can't win a tournament because he can't put four rounds together but like he he has spike rounds all the time so we talked about you brought him up on the pot too like it kidy almost like a better version of that right like these guys are amazing amazing ball-strankers and it's just they're such bad punters but if you can get one round two rounds one spike round that's all you know there's reasons why we sink her kitty and I'm

23:05a look as good as anybody in the world feeling good about my team I'm gonna have that cocktail from you buddy is gonna taste it from the vault coming back here numbers game numbers game on he said these force Betty network it is a numbers game here on the smack brown and Kelly Bidlin just ran through our golf picks had a little golf draft I have far superior team the Kelly Bidlin the the vault drink is going to taste so good and it's so expensive and I'm gonna go to the back and I'm in order the most expensive one even if I hate the liquor even if I hate whatever the drink is I'm just gonna go to the one in the back and order the most expensive there's a little little speakeasy I don't even go to speak easy do we call things just because they're hidden it's yeah I mean we'll just call this one hidden but I mean they like they call them all speakeasy

24:05but like it's it's just a hidden bar it's a hidden bar by the belagio by the belagio cage it's great it's called the fault because by the cage behind there I used to be the vault just why it was it was a fault at one point there you go um the I do like I it's a great place you should go check it out if you're in town and there's something to be said about everybody can complain they come to Vegas you can easily complain about how expensive things are so then to have like the most expensive cocktail in town that it's saying something it's just a it's a wonderful experience here's here's the thing so you know what you're getting in so before we get angry tweets in two weeks when people come out here and then they like go and they try it and what's the old fashion we weigh what 80 dollars just understand it is it's absurd like the price is absurd the prices are absurd but you're going in to spend an absurd amount but you know it beforehand so like as long as you know it as long as you know it beforehand like don't come back going you maybe go buy

25:06a $70 drink now I didn't make you go do anything I just told you about this place that's really cool on the inside and has now the presentation of the drink so it's incredible to drink making solid drink making is up performance mm-hmm like I mean they are every single thing completely we got so enamored because there were bottles of liquor bottles yes were that were way off in kind of the distance in some of these other little like liquor cabinets and seven so one of their big things is if you so choose you could drink a drink from a bottle that literally like they got from like 1920 in 1930 in 1940 and stuff like that like there are there are liquor brands that you know very very well you don't even recognize the bottle because the bottle is so old that the label has changed the logo has changed like all the different things like that and so again if you know you are being completely out of line they just got to know then

26:08it's a place to go be completely out of line yeah hit an outright and then go right exactly or hit an outright when when a future's better something and then go be completely out of line as you know there are very few if I say that I I'm going out for a drink it usually means like that's three right you know that's really what that is but it's the fault that actually applies oh I'm going for a drink it's like the only place I'll have a drink at in the world yes I mean there is yes there's very very very little chance that you're not just sitting around there for three hours drinking a couple of cocktails there and you notice that real quick because you can see the people who go in there and they're too embarrassed to leave once they see the prices so they they feel obligated by they cannot get out of there fast enough as soon as that first drink has gone like I got to get out of it and it is it's it's it's a vault right so there's only one exit and yeah you got to walk by a lot of people yeah you can look right and you see those people they like you know like I have no problem going oh I was unaware of what this was all about I'm going to leave not some people are just like well I'm like I'm already here I'm obligated to buy a drink and then

27:10they buy the one drink at the front of the menu that's like like the cheapest drinks like 35 bucks gosh really I would have guessed I would have guessed 40 is 30 or 45 yes 35 or 40 and it's literally like a lemon drop or something or whatever yeah it's like a you know like a fancy version of a lemon drop or whatever but like that's that's what it's but again place to go be headline okay so we talked some baseball a little bit earlier we talked baseball again uh here yeah I want you I want your high-end thoughts I want the basic future so who's winning the world series who's winning the a L who's winning the NL who's some sneaky teams we should keep our eye on that sort of thing yeah so it would be silly to try and talk your way around the Dodgers um but if you're trying to play some sort of weird some sort of because what we saw last year too is right as long as you can get into a series you can figure out a way to try to right to to get it done in a small sample size the thing is is that the Dodgers are very very

28:13likely to be there just given not all the talent that they have but just the depth as well the only thing I will say about this Dodgers team and it didn't it didn't come back to bite the the Phillies last year necessarily but they aren't particularly young yeah so show Hayes gonna be 32 Mookie is already 33 Kyle Tucker's 29 Freddie Freeman is 36 Will Smith is 31 Max Muncie's 35 Tiasco Hernandez is 33 so you got a bunch of dudes in their 30s right your only regular starters in their 20s is Andy Pahez who is 25 and so you kind of look at that and you go okay if they ran very poorly given the age of a lot of these dudes and things like that and we know we get hurt more

29:14often the older we get then there is a world that exists that maybe they are not quite as good as we thought and that that can even go into this rotation in which Blake's Nell's 33 Tyler Glass Nell's 33 you know however much Shohei pitches we'll see what they decide to do with him you know this year and so they they do have that as well top to bottom though they're going to be at the very least a team that is what's called worst case scenario at 95 right you know like like worst case scenario like a 95 so baseball sees baseball is always interesting from a futures aspect from me because it's the regular season when you got a team that's that good like you're saying there's kind of there's kind of a floor on how many games there's going to win right but we always talk about the playoffs all the time and there's a lot of variance a lot of things while things that could happen in the MLB playoffs set up map if I if I offered you a no price on the Dodgers to win the world series

30:16would you quicker take the Dodgers to win or the no price we can tell I can tell you what the know Sam I know it's listed out there because well circle always puts up no price that's right so I mean like we can figure out real quick what what the no price is over there on the Dodgers which is it's probably going to be shockingly short Kelly which is one of the things that just kind of let you know pro baseball world pro base world series yes no so here we go on the Dodgers is going to be let's why don't they know put them at the top you think the no price is minus 280 okay that's even later than I was expecting sorry would you would you know price is minus 280 all right minus 280 or I'll give you plus 240 let's see you can I'll say you can shop around and find a two if I had to bet one of the two yes I would bet the no yeah as opposed to the yeah because you still have to have everything go right and we almost saw them lose last year mm-hmm like we almost saw it happen last year yeah I think I would bet the same thing not a bet I'm rushing to live through

31:19no season I am not as high on the Cubs as Adam I am lower on the Astros than most I was he and I both are high on the Orioles but that being said not great news coming out yesterday as we mentioned that Jackson holiday is going to be out for a while with a broken hammy for them okay so real quick on that hit the pause button on Orioles like is this a should you just wait into the season if you were going to bet some of those futures so are we still long enough before he's while very good he's not someone that is like he's the difference I think in this team maybe being like world world series gotcha possible if if he lives up to his pedigree and the stuff that he was doing in the miners but like it's not like they're going to fall off a cliff with him gone now remind me you're you're on their win total right I'm on their win total I am on their win total over and I play a sprinkle on the world series okay yeah no interestingly though both you and Adam avoiding the division just too much talent there too many talented teams you don't know how it's going to shake

32:22out yeah and here's the thing that it's because of what we said where you can still thrive in a small sample size deal or whatever that whole division is good yeah and so it's like I just need to get to the playoffs and then we can go from there so you'd rather this is a team you'd rather play high upside yeah yeah as opposed to where I have the tigers division I have the tigers in a division bet I have the tigers on a win total deal but I do not have the tigers past any of that other any of the others because I think in my mind in the back of my mind if things don't go exactly as planned that they could trade tear scuba because they just paid from braval des all that money I don't know if they have the money to pay him as well and so I think if they are not cruising then the tigers could end up being a seller specifically a scuba who it's going to bring a boatload of of return for them yeah I think that's a common thought I've heard two other teams want to ask you about quick Padres Rangers your thoughts on both of them because I feel like I've heard a lot of people not necessarily selling on the Padres but not nearly as

33:25excited as we were a year ago and Rangers maybe bit of a sleeper so the thing about the Padres to me is they didn't go out and get a power bat that I thought they really needed to go get I think that they needed somebody else in that lineup to help Tati's a Machado from a power standpoint that they didn't really go do and then the top of that rotation doesn't have Dylan Seas anymore so it's Michael King I guess is your best pitcher you know I don't know how I also as well too and a little bit down on this Padres team I'd rather take some of these other ones certainly at a longer number but diamond back second best team in the division yeah but Corbin Carroll just hammy we got away Corbin Carroll hammy going on when we come back let's talk some left turns with our very own Wyatt Tom show

34:26the numbers game on Fisent these sports betting network the numbers game here on Fisent these sports betting network Matt Brown and for Gill Kelly Bidlin on the desk and it is my pleasure to welcome on to this very desk at Circa the World's Largest Sportsbook a man who I think has both his handmaids intact are your handmaids good that's the the on the bone on the hand right the little bottom yeah yeah yeah and then punch anything last night Wyatt Tom check he of the behind the glass fame he of the podcast fame here at the at the network podcast producer leader of the network these days and then also so and then fills in for me I was going to say also some play by play you and LV women's basketball as well do you think they can hear over the radio how hard your hair is no no no no that's not something that translates through the radio is your your helmet head uh you know I I think they they they can feel the inside he feel my head I mean your hair looks great whoa man I'll

35:26get in my match right it's a it's a man it's a man that keeps uh the hair product companies in in in in business so there's no doubt about I use the hard up I get it from sports clips okay because that's the only place I know where they sell it and uh it works well yeah I don't like I don't like the hair to move yeah I can well everyone knows that there there's no doubt about it so we got you are big you are big into the uh into the Daytona 500 as well as just NASCAR in general one thing we do know is we got uh we got Kurt Bush on the or Cowbush on the pole for the first time in in in since 20 what is it the how long it's been since he no this is this is his first pole ever at the Daytona 500 he's over 20 lifetime yes so he is I'd like to say Cowbush is one of the one of the it'll go he'll go down as one of the top drivers in NASCAR history in his prime I would say he was like Scotty Sheffler okay it seemed like he was winning every two three races uh but the last two years have been a real struggle bus from two years ago he had a lot of good

36:26good cars just crap luck and then last year they were just god awful so he's had a new moved out of the Gibbs team he's on Richard Childers yes this is his third year with the with RCR uh his first year actually no fourth year with RCR my apologies first year they won three races in the first 15 like wow this is a good hire and then since then it's been uh yeah he's he hasn't won in over two years it's just quite surprising how big of an advantage is it for him to be on the pole not much not so much in this race in particular because we're going to kill people here where the crap with crashes and stuff well as as you tweeted about it last year or I think you said it on money moves was that the Daytona 500 it's it's just a huge crap shoot yeah it it becomes a wreck fest so uh I think it's just kind of nostalgia it's kind of cool to be able to start on the front row but wow I feel like there's I feel like every year we go into Daytona there's something changing with cars or teams or concerns about this race or something before we even get to the odds and kind of what you bet this week what's kind of biggest story line biggest thing people need to know about Daytona this oh man I don't know that the off season wasn't as as wild

37:31I would say actually the almost wild part of the while the off season was the Michael Jordan court case that really put NASCAR in a in a bad light there were some you know when you when you you sue people a lot of the texts come out and uh one of the owners actually the owner for Kyle bush uh for RCR uh the executives for NASCAR really set some some mean things about him some things that uh and you expect here on Xbox live uh chat so that was probably the biggest thing and it kind of changed also for NASCAR I think just the way how teams are going to get paid and also NASCAR wound up changing their playoff system to where before if you want a race you were in the playoffs barring if they had more than 16 winners so if you won you're in now it's all based on points you go the first 26 races top 12 or top 16 with points get into the playoffs and then the final 10 races is going to reset. So let's uh talk a little bit about how you bet NASCAR there should be a lot of you know the footballs over right football is is is now everyone's

38:32account is flush and so they're going to be looking to bet other stuff we talked about some of the basics with golf to open some of the basics of the NBA and whatever what are some of the basics here for NASCAR for people who are getting in for the first time it's because it's not just an outright sport just like it is within these zones right well I've like for me with NASCAR I will bet more outright for what we like to call plate races um these are tracks where the cars are really close together you're going to get these three four wide packs where you know it feels like the entire field is within fort uh a second of each other that's Daytona that's Daytona Taladega and Atlanta so that'll be Atlanta is right after and these are these are also races where we always text you guys hey these are great opportunity to light bet because guys can go from first to last in a lap and they can get back up to the to the front in about five laps so I usually bet very heavy on outright winners in those races because I think you're going to get a lot more value for the intermediate races and for the short track races I usually like to do placement markets you know top Chevy top Toyota top 10 top five the groups whatever it may be because

39:34I don't think I don't find it a lot of value um with just outright winners you know say like Shane Van Gisberg and for road course racing he is absolutely waxed the field there might be he might be minus number which is unheard of in NASCAR so it's just you don't find value in that I find more value in placement markets okay I like it so let's get into the right oh get in the race here we got Denny Hamlin nine to one he is your favorite on the outright market Ryan Blaney uh 10 to one really Byron Kyle Larson Kyle Bush all 11 to one then we get to 12 to one we're longer I know he got a bunch and this is I guess you're kind you're kind of spreading out over the board because there are going to be crashes right there's crashes every single year a lot of these cars going to be taken out of it so who did you lay well I was before qualifying happening yesterday I was what was high on Kyle Bush and I was like you know what he hasn't won here before he is one every race in NASCAR except for this this race so I was like and he's from Las Vegas so I was like I got to have a little bit of love there so I went with Kyle Bush um he's had good cars here at

40:36the 500 not not a not a lot of good luck um also another guy and it also with with these races is you got to look at manufacturers the fours are really really strong they have been over the last handful of years so I went heavy on a few fours I went Ryan Blaney at 12 to one Austin Cindrick at 15 to one their teammates Ryan Priest who won the clash he's at 22 to one and Brad keselowski who's coming off a broken leg at 22 to one those are a couple the shorter shots that I like Ryan Priest I haven't heard that one he is he is famous you got to look it up he has flipped at Daytona twice oh he had one one of the worst flips I've ever seen where he had to get up about like it felt like 50 feet in the air and flipped about eight or nine times so you mentioned this one being a live betting opportunity what should people be looking for when would this be something that you would be looking when what is the timing of the race where you're looking to get in line I would you know to be honest after a wreck I've seen guys win a race being involved in a wreck

41:37because at Daytona you put a little tape on you're good to go as long as as long as the cars got four wheels and it's on the ground you have a really good chance of winning so you know if your guy gets caught up in a wreck maybe spends and goes to the back of the field taking opportunity to look at that um maybe not the midway point of the race as well I think would be another good one um but yeah that's I think those are kind of the two areas where I would look to live bet you know it's fun I don't know if you've kept up doing this every year but this is I actually have like specific timing now at this point it's like hey I'm waiting till about halfway through the race a little bit after I'm waiting for that next crash after that point and then I'm usually picking a couple guys and jumping in but it's great to listen to people and why it's actually have a short list of people that you want to look at that you think the cars fast why when the wrecks happen is it typically the guys at the front that are wrecking and you want to be looking at the guys behind them or is it typically the guys in the middle to back and then you kind of want a front run how are you looking to bet the live deal here's it or is it totally random I think it's just totally random the wrecks happen anywhere um I think last year at the 500 there were three there

42:40were three major wrecks at the end of the race and most of them happen about you would say up up near the front the final lap I had Austin Cindrick to win and he got turned and the guy that I also bet finished second so that was a little bit unfortunate but yeah I mean it just the wrecks happen at any which way I think it's just kind of where you're looking at like you know say your guy gets caught up in a wreck and he spins down doesn't anything but he has to go back to like 25th spot ours fine a lot of he doesn't damage anything aerodynamic wise you're you're you're going to feel comfortable that he can get back up to the front yeah I mean the word the person that affects the most every crash though is the leader right because in theory you're all starting then together in the same pack once again so it helps bunch up everybody okay I know we went through some of your outrights any other bets that you've made for either Daytona already or I know you got a couple season long some fun wind props yeah I'll go with the uh with a little bit of the longer odds here like one of my favorite bets I've ever hit in NASCAR actually any bet that I've ever hit was a couple years ago at the July race in Daytona I hit um an 80 to one long shot which is great and there are

43:47some guys who have some really really good cars that don't usually run up in the front that I think could potentially win this race or they'll lead like Corey LaJoy is in an RF RFK car he's 40 to one that's a Ford as well though as I mentioned the Ford's run really well and I took a little bit of a this is a fun bet with Shane Van Gisberg and who is the road course specialist but trackhouse racing you never know what's going to happen with these races another couple bets you know people that are longer down the odds who might be running in the back of the field last year uh Jimmy Johnson had to been like oh Matt close to almost 10 to one for a top 10 if I'm not mistaken I bet somebody like him Corey Hyme for top 10 I think you're gonna get good value and then some of the season long bets I mentioned Kyle Busch who has struggled mightily over the last handful of years hasn't won in two years I think he can get one win one win at plus 160 I thought that was a great price and same thing with Ross Chastain I just like the price of plus 145 yes you're gonna break the streak here Bush I think has a one in 93 straight races Kelly Bedlin so why which is surprising liking him

44:52to bounce back here are very own Wyatt Tom check buddy thanks for it yes it's a time and I good luck on all the bets thank you sir when we come on back here yeah let's get into some more of these NFL props