A Numbers Game | February 11, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00a number of the story. All right. So those idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with kill. Alexander gone. He said. Numbers came here. We're sitting here anxiously trying to await the start of whatever this is that they're trying to do on the Olympics. And it just it would not cooperate with this break. We're so interested in what was going on and just was not going to happen. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin here with the on a Wednesday is it's it's it's dual something. This is the loose, right? Like the dual loose. You'll lose. They don't have loose. I don't know if I've got that. I mean, they're they're sitting on top of each other. They're on a sled. Oh, no, yeah. No, that's. I can't keep. How many of the different sledding sports do we need? Yeah, I mean, do we need. Like we need this so much so we need this. Yeah. What's more important? The person who lays on the bottom or the person who lays on the top. I don't want to come to this sport.

1:00Who's steering? If anyone's out there is a dual loose expert and wants to let us know, we're kind of interested. Because they're laying on top of each other. And so it is, it is just a loose, but there's laying on top of each other. I'll tell you what, uh, these people that aren't good enough to be solo loose. Mages. Maybe they have to, so they have to do the dual. It feels like you don't want to be the person laying on top, though, in case there's an accident, right? Like isn't that, uh, don't you go flying a bit more easily? I would assume that that would be the case. Yeah, that takes a little bit more guts to be that person. Michael tweets in that, uh, he was at Eastern Illinois in 1983 when Jimmy John's opened their first store. So going back to my home, my whole canes, the first racing canes was on campus there at LSU. He was, he was there for the first Jimmy John's. I'm fascinated by these types of things. Jimmy John's. Jimmy John's, uh, I don't even want to know how many Jimmy John's subs I ate in college. What's your sandwich of choice these days if you're going to need a sandwich? We have basically every choice here in Vegas. Oh, you mean like shop or

2:00type of, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, the shop. Well, you know what? Jersey mics you can never go wrong with. I always appreciate finding and I had still have a found a good one in Vegas. I think that I'm a believer that you need a barber and you need a butcher. I like to go get nice cuts of steak at a nice butcher shop. Matt and I used to have one down in Florida that would make their own subs. It would be like deli in a butcher shop. Do their own subs. I guess from a chain though. I'll go Jersey mics. Okay. All right. One of the other audience guy. Capriottis is very good too. Capriottis is very good. Capriottis guy. I'm not high on poor subs. Not high on. Firehouse. Not high on firehouse. There's a. Subway is just highway robbery. Yeah. You don't want to do it. You don't want to do that for sure. Subway used to be cheap. I don't know what happened there. Like a couple of times I've gone in there. I'm like, how are you charging like the same prices as everybody? Their chocolate chip cookies are good. That is true. No, you're right. Capriottis is very good. Yeah. Capriottis at least like you see them cooking the meat

3:00right there in front of you. I'm like, and I'm a big turkey guy. Yeah. You give me crap all the time. I know you're one of those Thanksgiving-like turkey guys who are like, I love turkey. Any kind of turkey. It's a bobby. It's all your bobby and those turkey sandwiches are very good. They got a hot bobby now. Hot. I don't like the, I don't need cranberry sauce on the sandwich. Stuff, the stuff in and whatever else they do. That's all good. All right. Yeah. Well, anyway, the very first Jimmy John's 1983. Send more of these tweets. Yeah. I can't really vivid at Matt Brown now. I didn't know that about, about Jimmy John's and yeah, man, they hope they're after college. Eastern Illinois. I would have thought, it sounds like the Thinese coast thing, but I get, you know, you just would have soon. Yeah, I would have. I'm just trying, he's just even packing college, right? So before the days of any kind of uber eats or anything, and Jimmy John's did have their whole like, we got your sandwich in 20 minutes later. Right. Yeah. That's what I was like. They would. They would. They would eat the sandwich too. Okay. So as you know, Kelly and I, along with West Reynolds, do a podcast

4:00in which we talked golf. But we're going to bring our golf thoughts to you right here on this very program as we go country club it. Oh. Uh. Oh. Yeah. It proves on the top of it. Oh, Shane doesn't matter. Was it was a larrier? Do I have to get my say it right? For being on the ones and two as they have. good job, Brinkle. Good job. You did the quick toss. You did the quick toss. That's where I didn't know if they're going to be on top of it or not. Why would I ever question them? Even though, uh, even though it's only eight o'clock in the morning, whenever you play at the little intro right there and you see them drinking, do you ever come? I'd like a cocktail right now. I wouldn't know what's funny is, yes, of course I've thought that before. I would think it more often though, but I'm always questioning what they're drinking. They just look like the cheesiest mocktails, which, you know, I'm sure they needed to do for, you know, production purposes. But yeah, I mean, that's definitely, uh, whatever writes free. I know you've seen the 1 800 B roll video, which is just anybody who works

5:00in television should watch it. Even if you don't work in television, if you ever hear a say B roll, you should go watch it. It's hilarious. Uh, but like it is, it is funny to think about staged production shoots of stuff like that. Well, when the, when the weather warms back up, um, what we're going to do is they're, they're showing us right there. Yeah, those are, yeah, those kind of like, we've got vodka in them. Um, maybe some gin or something. I mean, like the orange one, like it's just, it's like, hey, let's put orange juice in some ice cubes and some slices of orange. Like, yeah, I don't know if there's a very popular drink. I don't know if you know, it's called a screwdriver that, uh, it's like that in orange juice. I was just saying it's pretty fancy, fancy screwdriver. Yeah. Um, we'll go over to Ben's, uh, one of Ben's mansions and we'll just, we'll film a live one of these. Like, well, we'll, we'll do it in real life. They just shoot all those in Ben's neighborhood. Yeah. Yeah. And, uh, one of the mansions over there. We'll do it in the East Wing. We won't even bother him over the last one. So it'll be great. All right. So we're heading to Pebble Beach. It is a short course. Uh, the weather is always the concern here in this one's bad today. Supposed to not be bad tomorrow might get bad again

6:04on Sunday. We shall see. And, and that'll certainly play into how we want to go in and maybe bet some of these individual rounds and things like that. But Kelly, you know, at the end of the day, this is, we do have a decent amount of, uh, numbers here on this course. Now it used to be played differently. There were three courses in the rotation. Now it's only two courses in the rotation. 75% of the tournament will be played on just the Pebble Beach course. It is a four round tournament. As there will be no cut considering their boost in the prize pool here, elevated event type stuff and, and all that pretty tried and true. We talked about yesterday on the pod. We'll talk about it here. Hit fairways as much as you can. Then you're going to have wedges in and, uh, try to hit these small greens. And if you hit small greens, you'll have a chance to score him. I mean, the, the past winners have gotten 17, 18, 19 under at this tournament. But you can get, you can definitely go poorly here if you continually miss fairways. And then again, these are small greens. And if you're scrambled and left and right all over the time that you're just trying to save par, you're

7:05going to have to make some birdies here if you're going to actually climb this leaderboard. Yeah, it's, uh, man, it's, it's a course. It's a gorgeous course. If you're watching, uh, at home, uh, watching a visa.com YouTube TV or seeing some of the visuals that we've been running a Pebble Beach, it's gorgeous. It's kind of a shame when weather impacts this, right? I do think it's, yeah, I'm going to bring it back there real quick and just update people because honestly, it changes the golf course and how it's played, right? Like you said, it is a shorter track. Uh, it's, yes, you want to be out in the fairways, but the wind starts blowing. It completely changes this and the small greens is such a big factor in that, right? It's already a challenge to hit solid approach shots into smaller greens. Now when you're hitting them from shorter distances, like you said, with wedges, which we're going to see a ton of this, uh, this week, smaller greens might not matter as much, but when the wind starts howling, it's an issue. So I, I'm going to bring this up a couple different ways because we did on this on the pod yesterday Thursday, Friday, weather, don't look that bad. Okay. So, so that's kind of where you always start with this. If we're making tournament long bets, it's kind of where you

8:07need to focus and it's hard enough to project weather four days out. We talk about that all NFL season, right? Uh, of be careful of overreacting. So in, in, in, uh, that same sense of overreacting, if you see any live shots out there from Pebble Beach today, don't be too scared because it is, it's crazy, right? It's 30 mile an hour. I'm looking at one p.m. today. They're expected 31 mile an hour wind speeds with 36 mile an hour, Gus and rain. So all you're going to get really though is it'll, it'll, it'll show you what could happen, but it's not necessarily going to show you what is happening. That's my point. Yes. My point is don't turn on golf channel or something today. See some crazy shots. You're going to get the whole bottle things like we saw a few years ago, where Tony Fina was in driver on a par three and all that like, there will be some of those videos today. Some guys will be actually saw a practice round here from a couple of weeks ago, where Emiliano Grio took a wedge and the wind was blowing so hard off of the ocean and he had an upslope and he hit it straight up in the air and it went back over his head with all that. And

9:11again, these are all things that can happen. That's not going to say that it will happen over the course of the next four days. No, absolutely, absolutely. My point is just don't, don't, don't see that today and think that's exactly what we're getting for the next couple days because we're not expected to, but could happen. So we throw stuff into these models. This is, of course, a very, very strong field. You're going to have your Scotty Sheffler's and Roy McElroy's and Sanders and all of that and this thing. Yeah. Rory Fleetwood Shane Lowry, the first time you're seeing him here over in the States, they're making the trip over signature event. Of course, we have Tommy Fleetwood who ended last season on an incredible heater. We have Zander Shafley, who is yet to really put it together in a couple of events this year. You have C. Wu Kim, who might be the hottest golfer on the planet right now. It's a, it's a really, really interesting field and real erosion handicap because we used to think that, okay, shorter hitters, perfectly fine. You're not really worried about the driver here anyway. You're going to be a bunch of guys playing mini driver or playing three wood off of the tee. And then in comes Rory last year and just

10:13completely changes the entire way you can play this course because he just pulled out driver and cut corners left and right. Just blasted as far down as he could. He didn't even care if they missed fairways or not because he was so far down there that he was like, okay, yeah, I'm still hit it out of this stuff. It's not going to be the big of a deal. We said on the pod, I don't think very many people are going to take that approach, but there are people in this field that can if they want to try it. I mean, your Pearson, Couties and Jake Naps and Chris Godderups and even Scotty has gotten so long, you know, gotten so long now and whatever that there are dudes that if they want to try and take on this course that way, they can't. Yeah, and it's Matt. Yeah, we talked about on the pod. I don't think it's not the way that I handicap to this tournament and kind of expect majority, but I know this is no fun to say. Combine that, which, hey, it's the capital, Rory, right? Like all the credit in the world for you, you will come into a course and trying to figure out a new strategy and a better strategy of how to attack it and it feels like with the driving distance we have nowadays is someone tries to do

11:17that and we saw it with Bryson a lot when he was still in the tool, right? But some people try to figure that out and they think there's a short cut. It feels like almost one tournament a year now we're getting this at. So combined with not knowing if those guys are going to do that and with the weather changing, I will say we're going to get to the other side and get through all our bets. I a little bit less bets for me this week, but there is one guy I really want. If you want West's thoughts as well with all of this over visa.com or long shots wherever you find your podcast. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vsyn Pro. The numbers game on Vsyn, the sports betting network.

12:31It is the numbers game here on Vsyn, the sports betting network map round end, Kelly Bidlin in here as we continue to run through. What we think about this golf tournament this week, Kelly Bidlin coming off of an outright win this past week. So chalk one up for the podcast. It's a win for all of us. Hell yeah. When you win, it's a win for all of us. Absolutely, it is. You know, I'm going to, I'm just going to take that in. Listen, we all made money last week. All the placement market stuff got home all that was, you know, it's a can't hit every out right, but you at least have one on the board for us. So good for you. There as we said, guys, so this one we are going to get it. It's a loaded field no doubt. However, just because there's only 80 people, don't think that that means that there are 80 people they can actually go win this tournament. If you get to the bottom, Joe Highsmith and Adam Shink and Johnny Vegas and Brian Campbell and Stephen Fisk and even even even pot guy or this does not fit pot guy at all. I would think this is a course. He's going to struggle. Yeah, like this doesn't fit him at all. Maddie Schmidt is another

13:32bomber. Like he doesn't really fit what he does very well. And it's like, we kind of said this yesterday, Kelly and I I went and made sure that I feel good about it, but I feel good about saying that there are 80 people that are going to beat up. I still only think about 65 of them legitimately. Yeah, could win this thing. Which initially you said, you said 60, I said 70, I think 65 is probably the more accurate. And the reason we bring this up, you're going, yeah, dude, they're still 65 people. But this from a placement market standpoint, if you can kind of eliminate 15 people, you do not think you're going to have success here at this tournament. Yep. Then when we start talking our top 20s, that's awesome. Because there's there's everyone's going to get four rounds here. And if you're worried about everybody being able to chase your guys down, then that's one thing, but like, I'm not. I'm not worried about about 15 to 20 of these dudes chasing my guys down. So I'm not really worried about my top 20 bets because I love the dudes that I bet top 20 this week. And I think that they are exponentially better than the guys that

14:32I kind of have written off in this thing. Did you think pricing was interesting on the top 20 market? Like they were more attractive than I thought they were going to be definitely definitely the one that I'm super, super heavy on. And then the other one, I couldn't believe it. Because what would we honest to us that Scotty and Rory and St. Wood and all of them are in this or in this. So that's the counter, right? You are what we have 123 last week, 123 players in that field was an odd number. So we're down to 80. So 53 last got 43 last guys in this event period. But you bring over a Rory McRoy, Tommy Fleetwood, right? That shifts things, even having said that I was still a little surprised the numbers we get in there. So we went in, we ran our numbers. We do modeling. It is not our models. I like to say this to remind people, especially now that we're kind of getting back into golf betting. We'll talk about our models a lot. We didn't build them. We are not coders. These are we're on the backs of people who are much smarter than me when it comes to all of that. However, we do put in our own information. We weight it accordingly to how much we

15:36believe that it matters. And our models are not always the same. And our models can even different pretty drastically. Because there are endless amounts of different things that you can put in in factor into these into these deals. You can put in different time frames. You can put in whether it's last X amount of rounds or from calendar month X to calendar month while all these different ways that you go about it. And so again, while the, while the backbones of the models that we use are the same, the information we put in is different. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I know correct me if I'm wrong, but I know one thing that we kind of differed on a little bit yesterday is it sounded like I was going a little bit more heavy on the scrambling around the green stats. And we say it often at bird at courses that you can go low on. We say it often, I think it's correctly. So that, you know, hey, if you're playing too much around the green and you're missing greens, you might not be in it. If you got to keep up with birdies, well, I think that's fair. I usually take that same approach, Matt. I did actually weigh it in a little bit more here. The small greens just always make me nervous when you get there about guys being able to consistently

16:41hit those. So I think that's one example. I know we both mentioned that, hey, we're just looking at the guys that have performed well on short courses. I know you and I both factor that in well. This is in a big time second shot golf course approach is going to matter. Some of those wedge buckets, so you know, 75 to 150 anywhere in that range. I think it's where you're going to see a lot of the approach shots come from. And you and I both did that par five scoring. There are four par fives on both these courses. Gotta go be able to score on those. So that was for me, that was the majority of what I looked at this week. Some putting stats as well. Good to our picks here momentarily, but guys, if you haven't done so already, head to circalossvegas.com. They're given away a world soccer championship experience, a big soccer game, if you will. That's right. Or a big soccer tournament. The big one, if you will. You can come out here and you can hang at circa to watch that. They're going to give you a two-night stay. They're going to give you VIP Kavanaugh stadium swim, $500 in credit while you're up there, and then $250 in credit in food and beverage just while you're walking around the property down here. You're going to arrive in a limo. They're going to give you cocktails up at Legacy Club,

17:43all the ways to make you feel super, super special as you approach, as you approach the world soccer championship. And as here at Circa Resort and Casino, more info circalossvegas.com. So Kelly Bethlehem, we both ended up on Russell Hindley. Yeah. It is a very much a Hindley course to me. I said that there was a position that I was pretty, pretty proud of and pretty heavy on, and I have Russell Hindley plus 105 top 20. It is one of the bigger finishing position. That's I've got I've had in quite a while, but you know, this is a guy that if you were, if you were, if you're not Scotty chef, which obviously every course you would, you would just want Scotty chef, but like, but if you're not Scotty chef, or you don't literally possess every single skill there is in the bag, then this is kind of where Russell Hindley is going to shine. Like this is what he does. He hits fairway. He doesn't hit it very long. He don't have to here. He hits a bunch of fairways. He's got nice wedges. He's got nice short irons,

18:43and he can, he can deal with around the green stuff. I think Russell Hindley is kind of your, your model player. If you can't make, if you can't like max out every category, like if you were making a, making a player on a video game, where you just go in and you just max out everyone, that's basically Scotty chef, but like we're, but if you can't do that, then you kind of come to a guy like Russell Hindley. Yeah. Last 36 rounds. I look, he's top 12 in this field approach around the green pudding, bogey, avoidance, scrambling, driving accuracy. Great with those wedge, wedge ranges. I really, everything you're looking for. What has he done this year? T8 at the MX T19 of the Sony finished T5 year last year. So it has quality finishes at this course. He hasn't finished worse than T19 on the PJ torsons, the PJ championship last year. Obviously a big break in between end of last season and this season starting, but still that's the quality of golf at Russell Hindley's been playing. I bet I'm a lot last year. I don't really see myself back and off of him this year, Matt. So yeah, I'm with you know, and I was kind of snickering while you were saying that just because it is very rare for you to hear me or that especially together,

19:45say this about the same guy. It was immediately the first clicks and bets that I was making this week was Henley. And I don't really have a long card after that, but I really do like Henley this week. And it was for me outright top 10 top 20 and then a match up against the decimates Yama as well. Yeah, it's a it's a deal where I it's oh, and winner without Sheffler because I don't want Henley to play that great and somehow lose the Scotty Sheffler and me losing my money. The you got a better number on he on on him than I did from an outright perspective, I got a better number on the top 20. I think you probably put in top 20 yesterday. Yes, and so yeah, I think I think Henley had caught a little bit of steam there with that one. The more interesting stuff here for me is just this that you're your 10s and 20s that you put in and we can get to the outright stuff. I'm swinging that back around, but like you you have the Henley one. You're going back to McNeely. You're going back to Coody. Yes, I am. I think McNeely look as a guy of bet, I don't know, three weeks in a row now at this point. He is.

20:47Okay, guy, what the they had a house on this course, right? Right? Right? The McNeely. Is that a house on this course? You know, we joke a lot about like golfers and being rich and things and stuff like that. And like, when you have a name like Maverick McNeely, you just assume like, no, no, it's all true. It's all true. His his family is worth like nine figures. So yeah, yeah. So he so McNeely, a lot of experience specifically on this course, but we often talk about him just playing well on West Coast early in the season. Anyways, Poe Greens, right? We talk about some of these Poe Green experts. At least once in his lifetime at Pebble Beach, he he uttered the phrase, do you know who my father is? Like, you know, say like at least one time that happened for sure. Probably. Yeah, like this man McNeely, you could give him the as Gil likes it, the truth serum. You like, did you ever have to say anything like, okay, yeah, I did. Yeah. Me and my buddy are drinking like, you know, on whole 14 or something and they caught us and he's like, do you know who my father is? And they're like, all right, Maverick, go home. Go home, buddy. This is what this is what I'm glad you brought up

21:48the top 20 praise on headly because this was what I started with a top 20 on McNeely. And I was like, I'm not going to bet about right this week. He didn't end up rated out as highly as he had for me the past couple of weeks, but like felt this is clearly a fobo bet on the outright for guys for anybody who's listening at home. And man, Kelly keeps going back to Maverick McNeely. I'm not quite as excited this week about the outright play, but man, I'm not going to miss out after bed again, almost every week this season. Look, he's still T 13 10th to T 24. That's what he's done this season. He's playing incredibly well. Round the green game, maybe not exactly what I'm looking for here, but great on approach. Great. The putter, especially on these types of greens. Second here in 2021. So does have quality finishes here. What played math, top 20, Pearson Cudi, Ricky Fowler played them both last week, top 20 market Pearson Cudi. I think this is the third week in a row. And it's been a popular play on long shots. I know you and Wes were on him as well multiple times this year. Man, him and Jake nap. I played Jake nap a lot too. One of their big, big weapons is that driver, right? That is going to be taken away a bit this week. But

22:50that I'm just I'm just riding these guys at the vibes. I didn't went away from nap because the approach numbers aren't as great. But Pearson Cudi's doing in the rest of the bag. It's still great. So I'm going to go plus one 50 on the top 20 with Shane Lowry Chris Kirk round out your outright. It's been Griffin, Daniel Berger and Ryan Gerard round out mine. You can get all the reasons behind those bets over at your podcast store because you're already subscribing to long shots. Numbers game on Fiesense, these sports betting network. Numbers game here on Vs and these sports betting network. And we have breaking news here, Kelly Bidlin. We finally get word on the suspensions. Yes, we do. We will see all of the players suspended for differing games because Isaiah Stewart's history comes into play. We were just talking off there. Shams just tweeted, yet I'm looking at an NBA communications

23:51email that was crafted last night. I will get to that in a in a second. Okay. So we have Miles Bridges and Moose Debate each have been suspended four games for the altercation the other night. Piston Center, Jalen Dernan has been suspended two games and the suspension for Isaiah Stewart. I cannot find in this email right now. Seven games for Stewart. Seven games for Stewart Stewart and Dern will begin serving their suspensions tomorrow when the Piston's visit the Toronto Raptors at Scotia, Baker, so they crafted this email last night or yesterday. I don't really know why this is just coming down right now, but yes, differing suspensions. I was wondering about timing. So it does look like the Piston's players will miss this game tonight. Again, I did bet the Raptors and I still like it as I'm seeing that not much movement in that price. Yeah. So we're looking like said seven, four, four and two for Stewart Bridges, Diabata and Dernan. So there we go on that one. Will when we get officially official information that they are going to miss this

24:54evening because that's usually a follow-up type tweet that we would get. You know, you're right. I've got the phone out ready to add to a bet right now because I'm going off the email. The PR release said they will begin serving tomorrow at least the Piston's players and insane anything about the Hornets though. Yeah. So we'll see. I mean, typically that would have been followed by him saying, and by the way, this is going to hold or they're not going to whatever, you know, whatever, they're not going to say they're not going to try and appeal or whatever, so I'm not really sure why there's so much confusion with that. Me neither. Like it's still a little odd. The Hornets number is dropping even though I didn't just read anything about the Hornets specifically Hornets down to four and a half point favorites for their game tonight against the Hawks. That was definitely a lean to Atlanta for me tonight, but missed the six. That Raptors Piston's number has not I'm actually surprised there's more movement on the Hornets number than the Piston's number. Yeah, the screens definitely lighting up here. It looks as if, but like you

25:55said, I mean, just they're just repopping at the same number. They took them down and then just repopped them. So for for pistons, yeah, pistons or Raptors. Yeah, but the Hornets number is moving. That was six this morning down to four and a half. So looks like books were hedging a little bit on what was going to say looks like that's what's going on there with that one. We have a couple other NBA games just with with gigantic spreads Kelly and in 17, 17 and a half in favor of Cleveland Orlando, 10 and a half there in that one. These just playing, you know, dead teams in Milwaukee and Washington. Do you ever do you ever dabble in the like 17, 14, 12, 13 point spreads? It's a great question very rarely. Yeah, it's especially on a day like this when there's so many games going on and you're trying to handicap everything. It's this isn't the right answer. If you're handicapping and betting NBA every day, right? But some of these are pretty easy to skip by and go go looking at another one. I will say the numbers gone up.

27:00I did initially look kind of if the over with Cleveland and Washington, this Cleveland team of the offense has just been hum and recently, especially with ad James Harden. Wizards, we went over yesterday. Absolutely one of those tankin teams. It's two 40 and a half right now. It's pretty high was like two thirty seven and a half yesterday. That's kind of where I had looked initially with that game, but that's one. I mean, minus 1100 minus 1200 on the money line. That one I'm not running to, but I look, I think we I think we're at the time of the year already. I know we're not even at the all-star group, but some of these some of these tankin teams, man, I think you can throw these money lines into part into parlays and probably do pretty well. Every once in a while, no, someone's going to tweet at me. Yes, Pacers like last night. That's going to happen every now and then these the front offices can only decide what the players and what the lineups are going to look like each night. They can't tell you exactly what's going to happen in a game. All right, guys, if you have not done so already, head over sharp plays.com. They've been around since 2011. Free daily reports, real-time alerts, public logs and transparent results. It got some AI to help you out over there as well.

28:01So as we said, been around since 2011, trusted by the pros monitored by the books, visit sharp plays.com. Is the time to talk some windtotals? Yeah, man. It's a Wednesday. Let's do it. Ah, yes. Baseball. It's right around the corner. Pitchers and catchers, by the way, it's happening. Yeah, like this week, right? Yeah. Catch the fever. Listen, it is, I'm pretty excited about this this baseball season. I think that as I head in every baseball season, I probably have a little bit more optimism than maybe I should. But baseball been decent here the last few years and took some positions here on some windtotals early on. I will give a shout out to Adam Rosenberg. He's going to be joining us on the program tomorrow who gave me the the heads up on the white socks over 63 and a half wins. It was not a team that I was looking at. It is a team that I actually had completely overlooked, but he thinks they're

29:05going to be bad, but not as bad as 63 and a half. He actually, he actually bet an all to them up to 70 wins and over for the white socks team. So again, while he thinks they will be bad, Kelly Bidlin, maybe not just complete gutter trash and bet the over on the 63 and a half. And so I did blindly, I did blindly tail him on that. He had some really great reasons. Maybe we'll ask him about that tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah. Sounds good. I was laughing. We were kind of going over most and fewest wins last week or worse record, best record. White socks, not even close. Plus 650 and that's fewest wins. Mack is the Rockies or a astonishing minus 400. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. They are going to be horrific. Cool. They are going to be horrific until almost until the end of time. Like they're going to have to build. They're going to have to build a dome or something and then like pressurize it or some sort of stuff because like, you can't get you can't get pitching there. Like no free agent pitchers ever going to sign

30:06in Colorado. Gil said it last week. I never really thought about it this way, but just without that how that home field plays, right? It's like you almost have to try to field two completely different rosters of what you want at home and what you want on the road. Yeah. It's as you can't you just no pitcher, no pitch, no free agent pitcher is going to want to go there because you don't get another contract after that because your your stats are going to be so incredibly inflated, but that's neither here nor there. We'll go on and say that I bet the over on the Orioles at 82 and a half wins. The bonus for me is that is up to 84 and a half wins. The negative for me is I got a set on the desk here, Kelly and when we did that this morning, they announced that Jackson holiday is going to miss some time early on in the season because he has a broken hammock. And so this is something maybe you could have told me a couple of weeks ago because I'm guessing that this is not the first that you knew of this. And I counted the NBA putting the right, putting the crap in the letter last night, not releasing it till today. They released the information that Jackson holiday is going to miss some time there for them. And so there will be a hole in

31:09that lineup to start the season. That said, um, hey, where's our guy Mount Castle at now? He's on the bench. He's on the bench. He's on the bench. That's not even on another team. That's how deep this team is, man, like Taylor Ward, Jordan Westberg, Gunner Henderson, Peter Lonzo, Adley Rutchman, Dylan Beaver, you got Colton Coulter, if he can ever live up to what he did in the minor leagues, one of the biggest and brightest prospects there was out there. I mean, it's it is just a loaded loaded team and if they can get anything out of this rotation, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Boss, Dean Kramer, that is not a bad rotation by any stretch of the imagination. And then you sign Ryan Hellsley to be your closer. I think this is one of those teams that they underperformed last season. So incredibly bad. I understand it's a tough division, but that leads me to another one of the bets, which is the under on the Yankees 92 and a half because if the Orioles are going to win more games and I think they're going to have to win some of those games against the Yankees. I think this division overall is going to just steal games from the Yankees too. There's not a

32:13bad team in this division. And so I took the under 92 and a half on the Yankees as well under, as well on 103 and a half on the Dodgers. This is a number play. 104 wins. It's just a lot of when I get it. They're deep. They're incredibly talented. All of the stuff, but 104, like everything just has to work out to win 104 games. And if you got on the under 100 because this started 104 and a half, you got under that, you got 105 games like just unbelievable. So I did play that one. And I actually think the Pittsburgh pirates are going to be a little bit better than people think this rotation now for this pirates team is going to win them some games just on their own. Now they're just schemes. Like they're not, yeah, it's not just schemes. Like they're not going to win a ton of games, but like between schemes and Mitch Keller and Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler, who by the way, Bubba Chandler would be like the top prospect in most

33:14organize would have been the most top processing most organizing Paul schemes didn't exist if he wanted to human being. And then Jose your kitty is coming back. He's going to be in that rotation for them. Like there are dudes that can win games just with their arms for this team. And they added a couple of bats as well. I think this lineup isn't just completely complete trash. And so with all of that being said, I mean, Marcelo Zunas and Townspins or Horowitz is in town to go along with with O'Neal Cruz and whatnot. So I think the pirates are going to win. I think they might even flirt with 500 this year. I like it. I think I'm trying to decide which way for everyone is to tail. I think the Orioles over. It's fun. I'm not getting in front of the Dodgers. You need someone more like you to do make that bet. I'm not making that one. I listen, it was not a fun win to make. I'll put it that way. Now it is. Like we've talked about some of these other winters. Every loss they take is going to feel massive. It is. It's going to feel so incredible. When we come back, let's get some more college basketball takes from Dalinco.

34:28These sports betting network numbers game here on these sports betting network. We're getting some more of these suspension things come down. Miles Bridges suspended four games for his for the brawl. The brawl. We said that one earlier. Did we get that one? Yeah, I think we got all forces. It's the line now has flipped Toronto point and a half favorite at draft King. So they went, you know, getting not super significant, but we did go from point and a half on Detroit side to a point and a half on Toronto side. Yeah, I like it. That's what I wanted to get a little bit in front of that last night. We talked about Toronto earlier in the show. I still don't hate it at current number. I'm interested to see how that front court made. We'll look at some props later too. I'm interested to see what some of those Paul read numbers over. My screen is lighting up like a Christmas tree. I don't know if it's just because I mean, but it's not just the games that are affected by the suspension. She said like everybody's going, wait, this is the last big date about the NBA. I'm just going to like. I was just going to say, yeah, 28, 28 teams in action. Yeah, there's a lot of games to fire on. And if you're an NBA

35:32better, it's going to be, it's going to be quiet for the next weekend. Look at the multi-color screen. You see that? I see. I've got a lot of code on. The one we were talking about off air, I am a little surprised that the, well, I guess the movement's been about the same with the hornets and pistons side at this point. But you know, there was a reason why I talked Toronto earlier and I didn't really talk much about Atlanta because Atlanta still has Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson questionable for this game. Now they missed the last game. I'm kind of assuming they come back, but Jalen Johnson's too important for you not to know about in my opinion, before you go make a bet on the Atlanta side. So just a heads up on that one for the night out. Two win toes is to finish it off. I had two NBA ones I am looking at as well. Matt, I know you went, just went through your baseball one. Just a couple to put on the radar. I bet this like a couple weeks ago. It's still my favorite win total on the board. It is the Portland Trailblazers. 39 that I bet it over 39 and a half. We talked about in the show a couple weeks ago. It's like 40

36:33and a half right now. I still like it, man. Seems 26 and 28. They got to get to 40 and a half 15 of 15 13 finish 15 13 finish gets them. Hopefully the easiest remaining strength to schedule in the NBA. Play games one against Sacramento two against Indy one against Washington two against Brooklyn and two against Utah that get eight games against those taking teams we discussed yesterday. I still like that over and I'd hate to say this one because they do like Jordan not as coach of the year, but Phoenix Suns under 47 and a half. They've been one of the stories of the season. They've got a loaded schedule the rest of the way. It's pretty tough with a couple against Oklahoma City, a couple against San Antonio, couple against Boston and Denver. Nine toughest remaining strength to schedule. I think Phoenix is going to struggle a little bit down the stretch here. Okay. So two and a blazers over 40 and a half Suns under 47 and a half in the account for you. Jesse Welch tweets in let us know that our our our review of Keynes has him going to Keynes this afternoon to get some. I'm telling you, you're going to hear people like me say it's chicken

37:36fingers and you're going to be like, how good is a chicken? How good a chicken favorite could not change my life? Yeah. This one's going to change your life. We talked about Jason Tatum yesterday. Did you and we said that he he's practicing with the G league team. It actually is the G league team is practicing with him. They made them come down to Boston. So I saw some of the video and I was confused by that. It was like, why are they in Boston? No, no, no, it's it is. So when you're Jason Tatum, you don't go to them. They come to you. And so the G league team came to him. It's the G league team is not in Boston. It's like French. Okay. But like they had to come to the to the garden prop, well, the the the practice center proper to practice with him. I did see video and I was confused at what I was watching. Okay. Listen, when you're when you're the star, you don't go to them. They come to you. That's right. And so that's that's what went on there. Did you listen to those comments afterwards? No, I did not. He did not want to comment on time and stuff. And whatever. I think that's fair. Yeah. I know we got down cuffs waiting. I don't know how many Achilles that he's seen throughout his basketball career. But man, it is, I think it's you

38:40want to be careful with timelines. That's for sure. College basketball for NBC and TNT, over on Series XM as well at Dalland Cuff on the toward machine down. How you doing, buddy? Good fellows. How are you? I think I enjoyed your NBA segment. I gave me a second. I think to stop sweating. So this was it. This was a good win for everybody. I like it. I like it. We catch you from the gym. That was how you get you going to work out. Fellas, we had a two hour delay this morning. So that just jacks up the whole morning. Everything was changed. Golf calls changed. Jim changed. And this is just we're making it work. We're making it work. I like it. I like it. Well, we got an opinion on this game a little bit earlier. So I do want to get yours as well. Florida and Georgia over there in college basketball. What are you looking at tonight? Now, I mean, the play either either side, I think it might be looking at over situation or at least over for Florida. I would think too. I think they're 87 in a hook. This, this team right now, big picture though. I love them right now in terms of the value to win a national championship. They were written off. And November, December, they had a very tough schedule. Their guards were not playing at the level they needed to.

39:40These big guys are dominant in this game tonight. They're one of the best rebound offensive rebound teams in the country. Georgia's one of the 20 worst. And that's hard to do as a high major of team guys because you play a lot of smaller teams and a non league. Like that's pretty remarkable. The defensive rebounded percentage is terrible. So when these two teams played in Gainesville, it's a rivalry game. I get it. Georgia hung for a while and eventually Florida just just just overwhelmed them. They've won eight of nine. They've covered eight of those nine as well. If I was playing aside, I would lean Florida. Like I said, I think the team total over for Florida because Georgia wants to play up and down. And Tom Gold is team's not scared of running. And I think they're going to get second and third chances to maximize their offensive output. The questions can Georgia, Georgia make enough shots to stay in the game. But I do like the team total over for the Gators tonight. All right. Like that down. I think you got one more future bet. You're going to talk about that. I really like that. I want to go to the other game that you texted me about tonight. VCU at Lasal looking at the home dog here. Yeah, I just I mean, I've been watching these games. I cover the A 10 for for USA and Lasal at home guys. It let's be real. It's like it's a family. It's a family crowd. There are no fans.

40:43And that's a hard road environment to get yourself up for to get right to play. They're four and one in their last. I gave ATS the last five home games that a couple of those are against the better teams in the league. This many points against the VCU team that when you grind them into a half court game, they can struggle. This team does want to get out. They want to play at pace. Coach Martelli's first year there. They want to get that thing and go. I say I want to grind it and they'll throw in some zone. They'll mix it up. They'll make it ugly. They do rebound really, really well. I hate betting a dog that I don't think can win. I don't think they can win. But this is a lot of points for an environment that's tough to plan for VCU team that all be it is one seven straight games. Now they're three and four ATS in those seven. So the market still always leans VCU's way it seems. And LaSalle, I think at home with this many points, I like where they're at. All right, Dallin. You have a legendary Ivy League career. Where was the toughest, toughest place that you had to play in regularly? Well, let me just from that point, the worst place to play was Dartmouth because there's a foot of snow. There's eight people in the stands and you got to bring your own energy and we play back to back. So you play Harvard. There are times you play Harvard. If you win, you got to go play

41:44at Dartmouth. And if you lose, like, it's just a miserable place to be. I don't want to make LaSalle or Dartmouth, but it's close within that league. The hardest place I probably played was Washington the year before they were the number one seed. So you had Nate Washington, Brandon Roy, Trace Simmons, Luke Jensen, fellas. That was one time my career. We just didn't belong on the floor. Like, I'm talking, I'm putting a shot up and Nate is up my butt the other way with the ball. Like, I could not get back on defense fast enough. I'm guarding Nate Robbins in 50 feet from the hoop. They're just blowing by me. That wasn't pretty. But that was probably the toughest place to play. Plus, it was always cool because it's historic. 7,000 strong. You can't hear yourself think out there. And you know, the refs, they're not on your team either for a sure there. So down this is actually a perfect question for you that I asked yesterday. One of our other guests is since you've actually been there, done that. How much do you take home court advantage into your handicapping? Like, I mean, knowing that you've been in some places, like you said, you can't really hear yourself think and other ones that maybe it's just hard to concentrate because nobody's in there. Like, what do you, how do you do that whenever you're looking at these games? Quite a bit in league play in particular. I think you get you get a sense by the time we get

42:47now is what teams are where they're at, how they play and how they play at home versus road within within playing against their peers. So I look at that quite a bit. I try to I try to and upset situations. Let me have a bump number them today where we're ranked teams on the road against unranked teams. I look at those intently, especially if it's a smaller number, especially if I look, I always look at the slate first and think what would I put the number at? And you guys, now let's any time if I'm saying it's probably four or five and it's one or two. I mean, it's a principal play. I'm just taking the home team just without a doubt. So it plays quite a bit into how I approach things. College kids react a lot. And obviously the spot plays are big. We saw it last night with Carolina. You know, they beat my beat Duke at the weekend. They're riding high. Miami's got a huge game for them on the road. That was a game where I love the Kings and it's a spot play where a lot of times in college kids, it's some of those pitfalls or great performances are a little bit easier predict, especially at home. Dallas, I know, uh, so I sat here yesterday and watched the Kansas game and no Aaron Peterson. I didn't play in that, but I've been watching a lot of him this year and

43:48plug and play ready to go with the NBA. He sure looks like I fired 20 to one on Kansas to win a national championship. I got a text from you a little while ago. Is this something you agree with or you wholeheartedly disagree with? I'm always worried, Kelly. If I'm like, I love where your head's at. I love where your head's at. I was saying it about two weeks ago when this is because it's not necessarily based on Aaron Peterson. This is the thing. This team has shown without him now Melvin council playing at a certain level defensive. They're really good for it. But Dunga gives him a ton. I know. Let's not forget you've built self who's ridiculous in terms of one of the best coaches in the game and has done it before and winning championships. You have that. And then yes, sometimes you sprinkle in the best player in college basketball. And I would love to see them get consistent with him. But two weekends ago was really clear. You know, they play at BYU. He plays half the game puts up 20. Doesn't play in the second half. Monday night against Texas tech. He makes a three that maybe only he can make the tie the game and then wins the game. So I think there's only upside here. I think there's only value for them. They have this huge stretch coming up. If they continue to win in this stretch, that number's coming down precipitously. So I've said the last couple of weeks. If you're going to get on them,

44:49get on them now because as they keep winning these big games and show peace events, that number's coming down, especially they're doing it without the future number one. Follow Downing's great work over at NBC and TNT. Of course, series six in them as well. College sports at DownCuff on the Twin Machine. Appreciate the time, buddy. Good luck. You well, fellas?