606 | How Ownership Mix Could Improve Your Return by 34% - Chat with Gerard Burg

(Upcoming webinar - 7:30pm AEST, Tues, 28th July) New vs Established Property: What should you buy in today’s market? Register here: https://thepropertycouch.com.au/registernow

Do owner-occupier suburbs have better capital growth?

New Cotality research suggests the answer is often yes — particularly when it comes to units.

Between 2010 and 2026, units in owner-occupier-heavy areas grew by 99%, compared with 65% in investor-heavy suburbs. Applied to the national median unit value at the beginning of that period, that represents an estimated $148,000 difference in capital gains.  

But does that mean investors should simply avoid any suburb with a high share of renters? Not quite. 

In this episode, Ben Kingsley is joined by Gerard Burg, Head of Research at Cotality Australia. Gerard brings more than two decades of experience analysing economic and industry trends across government and the private sector, including his previous role as a Senior Economist at NAB.  

Together, they unpack what Cotality’s ownership-composition research really tells us, why the relationship is so much stronger in the unit market, and how liveability, amenity, renovation activity and future housing supply can influence long-term performance. 

They also explore the risks of investor-heavy apartment markets, the potential consequences of pushing more investors towards new builds, and what the latest listings and lending data reveal about Australia’s property market in 2026.

Free Stuff Mentioned

• (LIVE Webinar!) New vs Established Property: What should you buy in today’s market? Have recent tax changes made new property the obvious choice for investors? Join us on Tuesday, 28 July at 7:30 pm AEST as we unpack the real numbers, risks and trade-offs behind buying new versus established property.👉 Register for the free webinar
• Cotality’s Owner-Occupier and Investor Research  👉 Read the research and download the full analysis or learn more about Cotality here
• Moorr’s Suburb Search Feature: Looking for more suburb data? Check our Moorr’s brand new feature: Suburb Search! Research over 30,000 Australian suburbs with just a few clicks. Explore monthly-updated market data, compare locations, uncover hidden opportunities and access suburb-level insights to help you invest with greater confidence. 👉 Learn more

Timestamps 

• 01:23 – Should You Buy New or Established Property After the Tax Changes?
• 02:28 – Meet Gerard Burg, Head of Research at Cotality Australia
• 03:21 – Money Story: Growing Up as the Youngest of Five Children
• 09:19 – How Gerard Found His Way Into Economics and Property Research
• 14:16 – How the Rental Ratio and Ownership Research Was Calculated
• 15:27 – Do Owner-Occupier Suburbs Have Better Capital Growth?
• 17:15 – How Ownership Composition Created a $148,000 Difference
• 20:00 – Why Schools, Transport and Liveability Influence Property Values
• 23:29 – Why New Apartment Supply Can Limit Capital Growth
• 27:00 – How Investors Should Use a Suburb’s Rental Ratio
• 32:23 – How the New Tax Settings Could Change Investor Behaviour
• 37:05 – Could New Housing Estates Become the Next Investor-Heavy Markets?
• 39:29 – Rental Guarantees, Oversupply and Concentration Risk Explained
• 44:27 – The Practical Property Research Lessons Investors Can Apply
• 46:08 – Australia’s Property Market Outlook for the Rest of 2026
• 46:36 – Are Rate Rises or the Federal Budget Driving the Market Slowdown?
• 51:00 – Are Regional Property Markets Still Outperforming the Capitals?
• 53:57 – What Rising Listings Tell Us About Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
• 56:31 – Interest Rates, Borrowing Capacity and the Signals to Watch Next

LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

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