newsJun 11, 202438:05pending

538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up

About this episode

The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we might expect between now and Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Get every episode summarized

Each time FiveThirtyEight Politics publishes, we email you a written briefing from the transcript — the topics, who appeared, and any specific claims, with the ad reads skipped.

Email me new episodes

Free for 3 shows. No card needed.

Hosts & guests

No transcript yet

This episode has not been transcribed. Request it and it moves to the front of the queue.

More episodes

538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up

About this episode

Get every episode summarized

Hosts & guests

More from FiveThirtyEight Politics

Reaction Podcast: Trump Goes Long

Is The Era Of ‘Macho Man’ Politics Here?

No, It's Not Getting More Dangerous To Fly

Democrats Aren't Popular. What Should They Do About It?