businessApr 21, 20251:15:15pending
46: Trump's Trade Roadmap: From Hidden Plan to Radical Reality
About this episode
Months before trade policy was on anyone's radar, Stephen Miran—now Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump—quietly published "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." In this episode, Ben and Cardiff dive into Miran’s roadmap and assess how Trump's policies in practice have diverged from Miran’s original vision.
Ben and Cardiff explore three key scenarios for the future trajectory:
Ben and Cardiff explore three key scenarios for the future trajectory:
- Best Case: International dealmaking leads to a breakthrough, reducing tariffs globally, restoring trade relations, and strengthening US manufacturing sectors.
- Base Case: A partial rollback of tariffs prevents catastrophic damage, yet still triggers an economic slowdown, accompanied by an interim inflation shock.
- Worst Case: Continued tariff escalation triggers a severe recession, persistent stagflation, and prolonged economic and geopolitical turmoil.
The episode concludes with "surprise scenarios" that could rejuvenate growth despite an adverse economic environment. The hosts emphasize the high stakes and overwhelming uncertainty inherent in America's current economic trajectory.
For those who want to read the full, original roadmap:
Stephen Miran, A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, November 2024
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
—
For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.
Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at [email protected].
Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.
About Fundrise
With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.
Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s).
Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.
For those who want to read the full, original roadmap:
Stephen Miran, A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, November 2024
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
—
For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.
Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at [email protected].
Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.
About Fundrise
With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.
Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s).
Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.
Get every episode summarized
Each time Onward, a Fundrise Production publishes, we email you a written briefing from the transcript — the topics, who appeared, and any specific claims, with the ad reads skipped.
Email me new episodesFree for 3 shows. No card needed.
Hosts & guests
No transcript yet
This episode has not been transcribed. Request it and it moves to the front of the queue.
More episodes
More from Onward, a Fundrise Production
59: Life after AI, with Kanika Bahl Founding Trustee at Anthropic
Onward, a Fundrise Production
Aug 11, 20261:06:35pending
58: What we can learn from the first industry AI took over, with Paul Adams CPO...
Onward, a Fundrise Production
Jun 11, 202640:42pending
57: This miracle pill could make dogs live longer, with Celine Halioua, Founder...
Onward, a Fundrise Production
May 21, 202657:32pending
56: Will AI do your job? with Raza Habib, Member of Technical Staff at Anthropic
Onward, a Fundrise Production
Mar 25, 202646:38failed