381: A fascinating Gold Cup gamble | The Front Page

0:00In this week's edition of the front page Dan Skeleton is in Red Hot Form as he goes to the Cheltenham Festival. We look at the very trouble situation in the Middle East. We explored interesting financial development for ammo racing and we ask why is I know the way you're thinking tumbling in price for the Cheltenham Gold Cup all that more on this week's The Front Page. Hello there. Welcome to this week's edition of The Front Page. Lots of Cheltenham chat in this week's show. We are eight days away from the greatest meeting in the racing calendar but lots more happening as well in the sport and we'll be looking at many of those issues with myself, lean water said and my racing post colleagues Pete Skargel and Liam Head. Hello gentlemen, we were excited. Just as one can be, yeah, just over a week now to go so yeah, can't wait. Yeah and we had a good weekend of racing, not a stellar weekend because we're too close to Cheltenham

1:03for that but there was quality fair at Kelso and at Newbury and on the flat in Dubai. Dan Skeleton will be expecting to have a big Cheltenham festival. He'd bring a fantastic sort of horses to Presbury Park next week and he limbered up for it in great fashion, winning two of the big races on Saturday, Hiltonham won the Great Wood Gold Cup at Newbury and it was a second time this season though when Dan won a big race at Newbury when he was elsewhere because at Kelso, he won the Big People Chaser with Protectorat who survived a big mistake at the second last fence to go on to school at Prohibitive odds and Liam as well as setting him up for a massive Cheltenham festival challenge. It was also a significant weekend because although we were only at the end of February, Hiltonham's win sort of done past his entire prize money total for the whole of last season

2:05when he almost but not nearly, didn't quite nearly win the Trainers Championship. So I think even Danny's saying that one is now pretty much in the back. Yeah it's another statement of intent from from Skeleton who the last couple of seasons would have hurt him more than he's probably letting on I think you know he's had big advantages over Willie Mullins in the Trainers title and Mullins has done what he's done best over the last couple of years and one big race as obviously Grand National has played a part. You know it will have an impact on the Trainers Championship but Skeleton is probably too far ahead now I think even by Willie Mullins' standards to be caught so I think given that the season has had I think what's important is the fact that even though he's had these sort of two sort of disappointing ends to the season from his standards by not lifting the trophy he'd come out and betted himself and he's done it so early as well. I think he's obviously a key

3:12target trainer and I think he's just only improved from from season to season and that can be you know that's a huge sort of cap in sort of feather in his cap. Yeah and a special horse to protect you right you know you always delivers doesn't he? He's a great old character. Yeah exactly I mean it you know as well as the younger sort of protagonist coming through from the Skeleton yard obviously he's invested quite heavily in the next generation coming through he can rely on the sort of the old boys protector at and Helton like you said winning the Great would go cook for a second time as well just shows you that he can do it sort of at all levels really. Other people pick winning though as well at Kelso. Captain Hugo won the third most valuable handicap hurdle stays in Britain but more battle. You like that Stan? I like that I can see from your fissions like you know that. It's a great catchy marketing that isn't it? It's the third most valuable handicap stays in Britain. Big win again and another big win for Philip Hobbes and Johnson White

4:14who are having quietly but productively a really good season. Yeah they're running forward this season aren't they? They've really got some momentum behind them so they've got some interesting horses for Chelton and I think they're you know time recording they're probably about 25% strike rate. Yeah so it's where you'd like to be going and Chelton isn't it with some nice sort of each way shots in those races and it's not about target trainers Philip Hobbes has been brilliant at that for years so him and Johnson White are in good form at the right time of yearly. The right time of year? So the glory could be a supreme contender. Yes there's lots of supreme contenders. There are. So I'm sure we'll discuss this one but yeah well they've got a good team horses like that for the week and you know they're not going in with a with a red heart shot but they going in with lots of nice horses with nice chances and if they're in form as well those ones are going to be competitive. And before we move on to the flat there were nice performances too from young horses trained by Tom Lacey at Kelso. Jeremy Scott at Newbury some nice talent coming through. Absolutely and a nice spread of people getting involved as well so it's encouraging to see

5:1670 trainers in good form going into the meeting this year particularly if you are a person who takes interest in the old press recap which doesn't really exist but we like to talk up in the media in advance of the meeting. Little way there, little insight into how the media works. Also big day on Saturday for the Christopher, Simon and Ed because at Maydan on their Super Saturday card massive trouble for them. Maydan won the big race there on the dirt. It's one of three winners for the Christopher. That must be as as good a day as they've had him. Not a great one success but in terms of you know numbers of big race winners. Well it's a land three big races two in the colours of shake arm and one for the cool more partners. Super Saturday you know possibly you've got a horse in Maydan is going to develop into a nice dirt performer for them and they've got history with the department. Absolutely and good performers on the dirt. It's a yard that

6:19routinely operates at high levels through the summer in Europe and they were landing the right blows and getting shake my hammer dancing with his stick. Absolutely. So what more could you want? Well exactly and you know really in spider because at Maydan he was out there in ours when I was there for the Melbourne Cup and if someone had said at that point after he was beating that race he'd be going to a mile and a quarter dirt race in Dubai and winning it so impressively you wouldn't you wouldn't have seen that one coming. Even in all your years Lee you wouldn't have that wouldn't crushed your mind as a possibility. Not that many. Rebel romance. He's a star isn't he? He's just the gift that keeps on giving and it was quite nice. I think it's even surprised Charlie Applebee at how he continues to keep doing it on the top stage you know he was quite emotional after he passed away. You know normally see that side of Charlie Applebee. I think it's just given that I mean this horse has just seen it all and you know I'm won the lot like I mean I was in

7:21dough hour a couple of years ago when he won the Amitro film and you kind of thought that his ceiling had been reached at that point and that was two years ago so the fact that he's still sort of playing his trade at the top level and putting in these performances you know William Buick's obviously got a great relationship with the horse. You just don't know when when he's sort of top level winning's going to end. He's a bit of a throwback in he for all of us that when G'dolphin first came on the scene and it had all of these swings. Fantastic. They alarm each other. Exactly. These brilliant older middle distance horses that go around the world winning big races with with Frankie and what have you. That's what that's what Rebel's romance. Almost embodies in a way. G'dolphin's very differently these days in terms of our operates but it's great to see the longevity, the adaptability of him. He's a credit to everyone involved. Yeah really. Actually the other age sped and the age spectrum producer Sam was in the studio earlier on. Talking about Toast of New York, a G'dolphin three-year-old who was who was beaten

8:26on Saturday but ran an eye-catching race for the 2000 games potentially. Well this is this time here that you know you guys are focusing on Cheltenham. Yeah. There's classic horses. Craving. Craving. Craving. Popping out all over the place of Lee. You've got to cover your eyes in the back of your head. More importantly actually of course you mentioned a bit more important was what's going on made down away from the racing because extensive coverage across the racing post today about the situation in the Middle East and that has also impacted racing. People who were there on Saturday talking about missiles flying overhead. We saw pictures of hotel inflames in Dubai. Although Cheltenham we did go racing on Saturday which I think would have been reassuring for a lot of people there but a lot of people they're stranded. Trainers, jockeys, racing staff, horses.

9:28Extraordinary situation. I mean I imagine the uncertainty is as much of a cause for concern as anything. I appreciate this missile's raining down is one thing but people don't know what's going on when they'll be able to get home what the circumstances are around. Obviously there's a big meeting in Bahrain this week supposedly with missiles landing on the US naval base there. Who knows what's going to happen with that. But I mean anyone that Scott Burton in particular has done excellent work on this last couple of days. The people talk about how well they've sort of been looked after out there in this sort of changing situation. So that uncertainty and what's going on when people get home I'm sure is causing great deal of concern. Yeah and then there is there is no part of the world in many ways that the global racing industry is more dependent on than the Middle East and seeing that sort of event taking place across the whole region at the moment is disturbing. Yeah 100% you know with the sport relies heavily on

10:28the investment as you said from the Middle East and you know especially this time of year when there's obviously we had Super Saturday just gone there's the big meeting in Bahrain coming up and and of course not to this in the future is the Dubai World Cup as well so there's a lot of them sort of uncertainty at the minute and you know let's hope that for the sake of everyone who's out there they're able to get home in the near future. Yeah absolutely and actually before we finish talking about events on the world stage you wanted to mention a big weekend for Harry Benton. Yeah so Harry Benton he rode his biggest win since he's been in Hong Kong he's been in Hong Kong for a while as an expat you know one of the one of the early ones of every increasing UK. Jockey sort of grew out there so yeah Stormy Grove in the colours of Mark Chan won't he's going to go for the Hong Kong Derby or being built up for the Hong Kong Derby so $1.2 million S. Congratulations to Harry you know he's he's he's built himself a life out there

11:32and you know a big big win for him so I thought we should mark it Lee. Absolutely and beautifully marked too. Thank you. We will be talking about Chelman later in the show Liam will be giving you some of his biggest antipose hopes the first one like I mentioned wanted to and mine if you're interested but before we get to that there is another big story that has been brewing for days now we had the Willie Wonty about Constitution Hill and the champion hurdle that one got resolved the Willie Wonty regarding Lord Allen and the BHA well it's not quite dramatic in that there seems to be an assumption that yes he will in that he will be leaving the BHA anytime soon as we record this on late Monday morning there's a BHA ball meeting today there's an expectation that Lord Allen's departure from the BHA will be announced at some point today Pete if it is it brings to an end a short but extremely sorry saga for British racing.

12:42Yeah sorry you know sorry is the right word because I mean nothing has been achieved apart from wasting time yeah and it's a microcosm of it's a microcosm of all of the issues that people talk about in this sport and what's hampering it say you've got the two the two stakeholder groups from once we're better than agree to bring this guy in he's going to make change he's going to be close to the government all this kind of stuff helpful for the sport he comes in and says right I want my independent board we have this we have this sort of extended period before he joins and everyone says fine you crack on we'll agree with that and then the BHA you know Lord Allen coming with this you know maybe they get ahead of themselves perhaps not understanding the delicacy of the situation around I mean race day data rights who do you think we talked about constitution a lot Liam race day data rights honestly and and then you've got the the two sides

13:46you know race courses on one side licensed personnel owners and breeders on the other side putting in opposite directions I mean I just don't know how anyone can look at that and say things are working well which is of course what you've written about today Lee who who comes in next to this joyous arena to have a good thing because Liam who would want to come in next you've got a situation whereby the make it constitution help him in charge but yeah he do it he do it um but you know you have the the participants of the race courses senior figures came together decided this was the right person they hide him because he was a change agent and a great and a great CV great CV great CV they hide a change agent but they don't like the change he wanted to make so they but in effect they're getting rid of him that's that's what we're expecting to have happened and might have happened bottom you see it's already if you are someone who might be approached with any sort of reputation for the BHA chair role why would you want to take it see what what happened with with Lord Allen why would you want to

14:50potentially damage your own reputation and why would you want to take a role in which it looks like if you want to do anything meaningful or significant you won't get passed first first first base well exactly I mean it's it's almost becoming quite a poison challenge role really now isn't it I mean we we had this discussion when Lord Allen was stepping into the role albeit after a bit of a delay and we kind of said well if this doesn't work then we're kind of back to square one and it doesn't feel um confidence with with the next person whoever that might be come in because if you if you come into the role it's like in anything if you come into the role and and suggest new ideas based on sort of how you've gone through the whole interview process and and how you've been selected for the role and you're not given a position to or you you want to implement these new new decisions and you can't these decisions don't come to fruition then it begs the question or what what's the point of the role almost and they were gushing about

15:53the time when it when he came in absolutely gushing about this guy yeah um but you know what's well I said how did you you know this is this is the best guy I actually know he's not the best guy we were wrong well that's it I meant the point the piece of the context if you're in the BHA comms team and you wrote all those press releases about how amazing he was how on earth now do you present they'll actually know we're we're on reflection he wants to spend more time this family you know he's decided that this isn't the role this isn't the role for how on earth you try and what they have to say about the fact yeah like you said they have to somehow find the reasons why all of a sudden he isn't the right person for the job now and it just doesn't make any sense when like he said six months ago they were saying this is the man this is the the one that's going to change isn't it anything and help us going forwards um it just it just screams like the the issues away further above yeah then the actual role itself it does what I will say Lee yeah is horse racing has been around for a long time it has and we do tend to find a way forward yes

16:58so I'm sure out of all of this they will find something that's a really heartening message to take forward it'll be fine loud probably don't worry it ain't this bad and the other thing is that obviously Bill Barbara industry industry has been well across all of this so if anything happens Bill or no yes and you say you might already know by the time you see this Bill or no Bill or no and you might know because it might have happened by now we might have a new chair by now as there's Liam's it might be Constitution Hill we we don't know what's what's going to happen we don't know there'll be a channel festival in eight days time more on that soon before we get there another interesting story one of so many interesting stories revealed by Mr. Scargill over here last few days ammo racing now you have written one or two pieces about ammo racing so you could well in the past what's the latest in the ammo story there was just an interesting filing earlier this month on company's house where the scope of the loan that was given to sports

18:05invest holdings which is the parent company of various companies that's a geared rapture is director off yeah a poly global management who is the this huge New York based private equity firm that loaned or gave sports invest on access to funds back at the end of 2024 they did they extended the scope of their their loan effects but say that both means that they've got an extra security on the loan now so you know if if if the loan isn't going the right way that they've they've got more protection yeah but additionally if you extend the amount that is covered theoretically you can borrow more money so given what has been going on with ammo racing and geared rapture and his huge ambitions it struck me as an interesting development and we were also able to report in the context of this the financial position that ammo racing was in as of the end of 2024

19:10and that everybody knows that they'd spent a huge amount of money in 2021 continued into 2025 but the idea that they you know outstanding creditors rode 109 million plus and that had expanded by over 60 million from the March to the December it just shows you what a the level of investment and boldness shown by jirabtion but equally you know what what he's up against I mean that's that's a huge amount of money for anyone yeah and horse racing isn't known as a great reaper of financial return unless you land on something particularly a supersonic a supersonic and I mean then the fact that we could probably also hear a name who we regard as a supersonic shows that yeah it's rare and and obviously a lot of key is investment and his group of investment has been in mayors you know

20:11they've gone down there let's establish a breedme about and you know that's not going to reap you any return anytime soon so there's a lot at stake is what I would say and it'd be fascinating watching how ammo fairs this year with franky detouries they're the global ambassador franky detouries there's lots there's lots to keep us interested yes in the process whether it's from franky or whether it's from jirabtion or whether it's from anyone else in another organisation but the pressure is on odesayly and the pressure will be on the the sports participants and the sports punters next week channel festival countdown is really gathering pace loads of coverage across all our platforms in the racing post and Liam as we move towards it say eight days from now among the more interesting news developments in recent days is it constitution hell because I know this Lee I know what does he does he run does he run no okay I know the way you're thinking

21:17last season's chat on goal cup winner supplemented in the race last year offer relatively ordinary campaign and then when and host up in in the goal cup this year the this season the campaign has been even worse he's performed pretty appalling the most of his race all his race it's really but heavily well we don't know he's heavily bad but he's been significantly cut in the goal cut market in recent days a fascinating development he's now sort of six to eight to one yeah it's a it's a tricky one to sort of get your head around really because obviously I think it was the savels chase he was in the last didn't really know running the original goal he fell it knackered yeah he fell in the final fantasy yeah it didn't really feel you were confident to scream that he was going to be the the back-to-back goal cut winner and given how competitive that race is looking looking out to be so yeah it's a difficult one really I mean we're still not even 100% sure

22:22that he's going to turn off a Cheltenham I mean we're not but the Gavin Cromwell was talking you know it wasn't about everything has gone well since he's worked well that he's been yeah he's stables in better form yeah so it's listen I mean maybe he's done a rattling piece of work at home that we're we're not aware of but yeah it's a tricky one I mean it wouldn't be the one that I'd be picking his my goal cut winner anyway no no no you've spent time with with JPM at Madison his team yeah like what what's their their thought process going to be on this what is you know they you know they guys that've been involved in a game for a long time they've got this sausage the Cheltenham goal cut winner dual Cheltenham festival winner you've done nothing all year like are they just going to be led by the trainer are they going to say come on we've got to how does it work how does it work to get this off to Cheltenham I know last year so when I did the big re with him last year and we when we were having the conversation for the interview it was the point when he was thinking about supplementing for the goal cut remember when you when you do it

23:26interview you'll be like no no there's sometimes you get you someone says a line and is it my god we can really you know go big on that one and he's said to me he was thinking of supplementing I know the way you're thinking and I said well you know why is that because I think you can win it you know and straight away it's in wow that's that's that's because at that point they get he wasn't a horse who looked like an obvious goal cut winner so I suspect that JPM has been in Barbados during the goal cut build up he'll have been talking to members if he's sort of entourage and team and laying out plans for festival and working out where something's always like mighty part we'll we'll run in but I suspect with I know the way you're thinking that they won't know really much more than we know and I suspect that Gavin Cromwell is giving him positive feedback there now they know that historically he comes good in the spring because he won the Kymure season before having had a decent enough campaign better than the following two yeah yeah

24:28but they know how good he's in the spring I suppose the complicating factor is that if he ran fact-of-file will probably start goal cut favourite so they've also got a horse in there who could be favourite for the goal cup who they're not sure will stay I know last season they didn't think he'd stay the goal cup distance which why they didn't run him in the race they ran him in the right he goes up in that if he goes the right there he's probably four to five four to six shot assuming Galic warrior goes to the goal cup and there seems an assumption that will he weren't one both in the same race I think it's really but but I suspect that the the recent market moves would indicate that the goal cut plan is now very much and then that would be I mean Cromwell led rather than I suspect so I suspect so I mean ultimately everything is JP like the sense that he will decide which race your horse is running yeah but I'm sure he would want to be getting some positive feedback from the trainer but it didn't enter him in the Grand National either so they haven't got a fallback option of entry and it was an assumption that he would be in the Grand National this season

25:31he's not yeah I think if he runs in the goal cup on the one hand you have to say his recent form is appalling how can that horse swim so bad but equally if they run him in the race I think they must really think they've got him back well I think as well you get I mean you we talk about the form of the horse and how it's in you know it's obviously not ideal preparation they've had for this race if they are going to end up in this race but he's a winner of the race so he knows and an impressive winner so he knows how to do it but you go to the this that the JP man has jigsaw at them in it because there's probably so many sort of things that need to be turned up because you mentioned in fact if I'll just balance towers also in there so he's probably going to run the goal in the goal cup but then on the other hand you've got John Bond could line up in there right now as well or not or not so I'm sure we'll get sort of the the McManus developments as the week goes on yeah all maybe it's later so I think Frank

26:34Barry was saying yesterday they might say with fact if I'll on on basic confirmations on the on the six day morning certainly and of course you can only declare for one race the Chelan Festival mistakes they can't declare him for the fact the Ryanair and then wait and see yeah we should probably wrap it up with a few horses to follow at Chelan Liam because Pete will just think I've had my fun earlier he won't play this game he's not he's not he refused to play this game but you Liam with all the intel to from seven barrels and across the great village of Lamborn what are you liking for Chelan yeah there's a few I mean I'm really hot on the chances of Wendigo for Jamie Snowden in the Brown Advisory he's a grade two one of this season he what I think he won the John Frank come at Newbury and back in November he ran a very good race in the quarter star at Campton and Boxing Day didn't really the going right handed is not the

27:42it is something that Jamie Snowden is alluded to him not sort of winning the race but he ran on third finish well probably needs a bit of rain this week to enhance his chances even further but I think he's a genuine stayer he won it a canter at last time out so I think he's primed and ready and I'd say that would probably be I know Snowden's had festival winners in the past but I reckon this could be one of his biggest chances he's ever had going into the meeting I think he said I think he'll get even furthering it in time as well could be looking at a potential Grand National Horse in the future really he's got a abundance of talent and I don't think we've kind of reached the ceiling of his ability either so I think he'll go well in a very wide open race a few others just certainly in the village I think that Lamborn's probably got the biggest chance of winners this year than it's had in many years certainly as I can remember as

28:46well Nicky Henderson's obviously got a fantastic team going there obviously it's a shame we obviously won't see Constitution Hill there also Gino for that matter yeah but he's got big chances he's obviously got Lulamber in the arkel old Pock star who was brilliant in the rusting domain at Haydock he's favorite for the the Supreme the Open Race on Tuesday he's got Django Bay yeah probably Henderson's biggest chance in a goalcorp for a long time for a long time as well so and then he normally has one or two for the handicaps as well it does doesn't he yeah yeah Jericho de Reppenei maybe in the Jericho de Reppenei yeah yeah bold the bold what's the holding the bold endeavour yeah yeah yeah right all he's down yeah the one of the Fred Winter Manlaga nine Laga yeah so and then he's got you know he had two winners last year and he's been in sort of decent form or all season as well so yeah it's interesting it's it's going to be exciting fit for the village and I'm sure Warren Gray Tricks has got one or two I think

29:49Hercules Westwood and Nick Skullfield has got St Irene in the the mayor's hurdle the mayor's novice hurdle so plenty yeah plenty to look forward to from the village point of view but I just think from from an over we're all point of view of the festival as well it's every race I mean it seems to cliché saying every race is going to be competitive at Cheltenham festival but there's when you look at the markets at this stage to a lot of the races there's six seven horses in each race or within sort of five six sevens to one so yeah and they're scattered around the the country as well you know and even in Ireland obviously Gordon now it's had a great season so I think it could be a proper wide open meeting yeah I think it's the most exciting Cheltenham festival I can remember for a long time because so many of those big races are right but Pete you don't you don't do take John if you're a mind John admit it me nothing will give me greater pleasure than to know what Shrewd picture you've got

30:49for this year's Cheltenham festival and I like Selma DeVerry in the Triumph hurdle like Munsif in the Fred Winter Charles Bernshaus and one of J.P.'s a Rocco but I might my big anti-priced sentence also very pleased yes just one one for me from you I know a while back you were very very taken by final demand performance and you were very happy with the price that you took what price was that nine to five okay nine are you still as confident going into the festival one of these programs Chris Cook he really killed me I was on the same show you're on the same show I just let him do the talking he wasn't it wasn't it wasn't either done with with kindness or or he just ridiculed me that was it turned out he was right yeah because the horse is a much bigger price now I don't know I died he was I wasn't wildly impressed him at Limerick when he went over Christmas and I thought you run terrible race at Leopardstown last time so do I wish I hadn't

31:49backed up at nine to five yes I do would have it back in him it was he sent two four to one now that's something like that yeah probably not will I take the money if he wins yes absolutely yeah yeah but it's it's but thank you for bringing that one that was very welcome I didn't what I've there's always been in the back of my mind that but I thought was just what I need people having a pop at me and I think it's just gone but now listen it's it's going to be a great week plenty to look forward to across the four days and yeah we're going to have plenty of coverage between now and then we certainly will and Pete Craven meeting soon can't wait can't wait thank you to Pete and to Liam thank you for watching it has been a delight good luck at the Chelmer Festival and if you're fancy becoming BHH air you know who to contact bye bye