#300 Danielle DiMartino Booth: "Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed - December Rate Cut in Doubt Despite Weakening Labor Data and Worker Struggles

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

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Links:    

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration

1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone

2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?

3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid

5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments

6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?

7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon

8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?

9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities

16:19 Private credit market concerns

27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising

28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic

29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing

30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data

31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data

32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies

33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator

33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays

34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work

35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter