#289 Michael Howell: Time To Start Thinking About The End Game As Liquidity Cycle Nears Top

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.

Links: 

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets

1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top

3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning

6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed

8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions

11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead

14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029

17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions

18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy

20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt

22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script

25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence

29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022

31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead

33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052

35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI

39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show

41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening

44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization

46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation

50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge