24: The case for a recession

In the latest episode of Onward, Ben and Cardiff work through one of the most confounding questions currently poised for the economy: What do we make of two seemingly contradictory data sets, where one is telling us that the economy is generally healthy, while the other says we remain precisely on track for a full-blown recession, according to all historical precedent? This source of cognitive dissonance recently sent Ben down a path of research, which has led to a critical observation: Before every recession in recorded Fed history comes a “Great Lag” — an average of 10 months between when the Fed reached peak interest rates and when the subsequent recessions actually began… resulting in a devastating average total stock market decline of -43%. Taking this data into consideration, the task of navigating the recession still hasn’t even started — in fact, we still haven’t even entered the first inning, as Ben says. If many companies are already strained in the current market, with current interest rates — as we’ve seen borne out in some sectors of commercial real estate — they certainly are not prepared for the the multi-year marathon of economic hardship that this data forecasts. So, despite the relative calm of our current economic moment, Ben points out that right now is the moment to prepare for what is almost certainly a recession still lingering on the horizon.

Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at [email protected].

Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).

Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.

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