#232 Ed Dowd: Why The Next Recession Is Different — The Coming Economic Reset in 2025

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

US Economy Outlook 2025:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden

03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class

05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse

07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration

09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds

11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower

13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn

15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer

16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues

18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility

20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar

23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data

26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment

29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns

32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash

35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession

38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market

41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles

43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction

45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator

46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis

49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues

51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age"

53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details