About this episode
It’s our most anticipated episode of the year! Stephen Barnett returns to grade our 2025 predictions and lay out the playbook for 2026.
We break down the massive $4.2 Trillion year in M&A, analysing why deal volume dropped while deal value skyrocketed. We also do a deep dive into the "Indigestion" facing Private Equity, with 50,000 businesses owned and nowhere to sell them, and why Private Credit is starting to look dangerously like the "Big Short" era of 2008.
Plus, we reveal our Company of the Year (hint: it’s a comeback story) and our Person of the Year (is it Jensen Huang or... Michael Burry?).
(00:00) Grading our 2025 Predictions (S&P, Nvidia, Bitcoin)
(04:58) $4.2 Trillion in Deals (Goldman vs. J.P. Morgan)
(09:38) The Rise of Boutique Banks & Size Matters
(14:25) Private Equity "Indigestion"
(17:52) Will Lower Rates Save Private Equity?
(21:05) Is Private Credit a Bubble?
(25:20) "Rating Shopping" & The Cockroach Theory
(31:10) 2026 Crystal Ball: Tailwinds vs. Headwinds
(35:05) Company of the Year: Google goes "Beast Mode"
(40:58) Person of the Year: Jensen Huang vs. Michael Burry
(44:53) The 2026 Prediction: OpenAI Gets Acquired?
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