2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets | Golf Gambling Podcast (Ep. 565)

0:00This episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network is brought to you by Kalshi. Make real money predicting sports. Kalshi is available in all 50 states and you can get $20 free with promo code SGPN. That's Kalshi promo code SGPN. March is here and SGPN is giving away $25,000 in Survivor Madness. Winter take all, one person will take home 25K. Gambling Podcast dot com slash survivor that sports gambling podcast dot com slash survivor. New splash customers can get $5 free with code SGPN. So go to splash sports. Use code SGPN to get $5 free in bonus entries. All right. We are live. We are back. Bay Hill, one of my favorite weeks of the year, got the already talked about it earlier, but the Bay Hill poster here, the pin flag right here. Dom, I'm happier here again. Tell me a little bit about Bay Hill and as a golf course as an event and your history here. Yeah. Obviously, one of the more difficult tracks that they'll play on the PGA tour.

1:04You point out your stuff actually frustrates me because I have that Bay Hill hat that I wear every single year and it didn't even cross my mind. Didn't even cross my mind. I do. Yeah, that is a nice hat. You have that little, the Arnold flag, right? Yeah. Do I have to go get it? Yeah. Go get it. I'll talk for a little bit. All right. I'll go through a little bit of the course notes while Dom go gets retrieved his Bay Hill hat as he should. Yeah. This is a brutal test of long, thick, rough, firm fast greens and it's looking like we're going to be fairly dry at the rest of the week tomorrow and maybe a Thursday afternoon, a little bit of rain, but it's nothing more than like a spotty shower. So the last few years, Bay Hill has been firm and fast, they've driven into the carnage. Like when you have Arnold Palmer's name on an event, you don't want no bullshit minus 25. There he is. The Bay Hill hat is here. I got a haircut this weekend so I was like, I'm not going to wear a hat, but I forgot about the Bay Hill hat. It's kind of a yearly thing, so it was necessary.

2:05Yeah. So I basically went for a little rundown of the carnage at Bay Hill, long, thick, rough, what you need to do, driving distance definitely helps here because it is just a long course and I've noted in my other show that seven and the last nine winners really spiked in driving distance coming into the week. They didn't necessarily do it with driving distance in a given week, but it's guys that are generally longer that play well around Bay Hill. So is there anything else you want to add to Bay Hill this week? No, I think you're, and if anyone hasn't seen it, I don't know if you brought it up, but your Twitter thread each week has been great info to kind of hold everyone's building their own models and looking for different stats and looking for their kind of thing to, I mean, you have to build a model, obviously. So looking and seeing driving distance, how important it is, I think you hit it right on the head, something that I wasn't really thinking about. But with the driving distance, I've also been looking at some of the shorter approaches.

3:07There's been some lead in correlation from looking at Fancy Golf bag and proximity from 50 to 125 yards, actually shows up on one of the stats for lead in here. So I kind of baked in 50 to 125 and then 100 to 125 as well. So obviously if your distance is up, you're going to find yourself probably in a lot more of these spots than you normally would. So yeah, just putting distance in there as a nice little tie breaker to put in there. But then yeah, you want guys who just have a complete game all the way around. I mean, you're looking for a complete game when the course is going to get difficult like it will this week. So back at golfers. Yeah, I mean, all of the winners have gained about a stroke and a half in each category at a minimum. So like it's that well-rounded game. We see guys win who are a little minus around the green sometimes about even putting or seeing Chris Goddard win like almost even on approach with a great putter. We're not really getting that at the hill.

4:08We're getting a complete full bag U.S. Open type test around beta. Let's get into the odds board Scotty Rory Tommy sub twenty to one on draft Kings. I'll say right now, I think this is the best chance ever that we've ever seen for a Scotty Rory duel on Sunday over the weekend. I genuinely do. So what's your thoughts on the top? What are your thoughts on that comment and how you approach in this top leaderboard? The way I tweaked my model recently, actually, for past 24 rounds at least had Rory won Scotty 2. So you saying that is funny to me just because it's you build everyone builds models every week. It's rare that you build one that we're Scotty and Rory are one and two, regardless of how many rounds you're going, obviously two best players in the world. But I don't doubt that one bit. I don't love the numbers.

5:08I'm probably taking them both on. Tommy stood out to me early, but the more I look through it and the number that we got were given. I mean, if he was in the low 20s, I was going to bet him. We're just not getting that unfortunately. So I'm not going to bet a 19 19 to one Tommy Fleetwood. Yeah. Going back to your point, Scotty Rory won two. I could see it. I feel like we're due for a week like that. Yeah. I mean, we've been due. We haven't seen them to, like, duel ever. Like, that we were close at Port Rush last year, but Rory was a little bit on the outside looking in and Scotty was just ahead. But like, think about it. Last year, Scotty was injured. Like he had that hand thing, so it took him a while to, like, get going. The year before that, Scotty was cooking, just like doing everything well, and Rory took a while. And then obviously last year, Rory was out the gates, pebble, pebble players. He was in that form already. This was outside of last week. This was the last time Scotty didn't T10. They held T11 last last year. So I think they're both, they're both not in mid season form yet, but I think they're

6:13as close as they've been at this point ever. So I really do think, like, I get to check after, like, what the duel forecast is on Scotty Rory. We're at, what's it called, support rush. It was like 40 to one, and I bet that, and we were, I had a sweat on Sunday. So I might go back to, it'd probably be like 25 to one this week. But Scotty Rory, and I did, if you follow my other site, I saved, I made a really small card for Riera. I made, like, super low units invested because I was saving up for a Scotty week. Save the units and go heavier on Scotty, and this very well, maybe it, I obviously, as always, I'll be out there tomorrow to get the eyes on the guys and hopefully I see some, some great things from Scotty because I'll be honest, sometimes I don't see great things from Scotty. I'm like, all right, I'm going to take them on this week and it's gone all right. So let's, let's skip these two guys because I think we're both like, you know, one more thing at one more thing on Scotty. Obviously, he's one here two of the last four years, and the two times that he did win

7:14were the only two times in the past five years that he gained strokes putting. He lost over five strokes, putting last year and still finished T11. I think the way that he's been putting even this year, I mean, he's gained almost two strokes in his last five events on the green. So if Scotty can show up with the irons and like put a first round together, yeah, I'd love to see your notes for what you see out there tomorrow. Yeah. I mean, if you look what he's doing right now, he surely is putting well and he's literally like a top 10 putter in the world now nowadays, like he's figured that out. So, but also like, I don't, I don't care about the Thursday thing at all. Like, I'm seeing a lot of like, oh, Scotty can just play on Thursday. He led PGA tour 2025 and around one scoring. He's played 16 rounds of golf in 2026. Three of them were bad. They just happened to be on Thursday. If one was on a Friday, one was on a Saturday, everyone would have been like, oh my god, it's gotty like T4, T11, win, just out the year.

8:16What a season he's got going. Now it's like, oh, he can't golf on Thursdays. I think it's bullshit. It's just he's happened to have three bad rounds and he knows that he's he's he's fine. So Scotty, worry, those are our takes. I also agree with what you said on Tommy. He's going to mix it on all time rate this year, betting Tommy, you'll get sweats that you'll get sweats for sure. Like no, no, no more of this backdoor shit like Tommy's going to be in the mix this year. Yeah. Zander, Fitsy, Fitsy numbers has torched already. It's 26. It was 30 plus earlier. Scotty, Russ, Colin, Cam Young, CW and Bob Mack and Patrick, that's everyone's 35 and below on DK at the moment. I guess I'll start it off for a little bit. I don't mind Bob Mack, Bob Mack in US Open conditions, Bob Mack in like difficult conditions is where I prefer him. He's plenty long enough off the tee. We saw him get towards that like second tier of golf or late last year in terms of pricing. And he's kind of drifting back towards the middle now.

9:17So maybe buy it early because once it happens, he's going to be there and you're like, oh, I should have got Bob Mack early. So I think there's a fine price for Bob Mack in a field like this and specifically the conditions that we're getting. So Bob Mack at 33 is a look for me for sure. Yeah. I don't love this range. I would like to get to Deckey, but the driver scares me being something that we're looking at. Obviously like it makes sense for him, a guy who doesn't make a ton of bogies. He can get hot with his irons, but just looking at what he's done off the tee and especially if you bake in distance, it's kind of hard to get behind somebody like Hadecki. Obviously Cam Young is interesting, you can get a 40 to one on him, which I hate to bring him up every week, but it's like he was one of our guys heading into the year. We talked about distance at the top of the show, obviously. His shorter irons wedges kind of rate out pretty well for me overall.

10:21So Cam Young might be a spot that I actually get to here in the 30s, 40s. Yeah. You mentioned the Twitter threat I posted earlier. There's two golfers in the entire field who have in their last 10 rounds spiked enough times with distance and spiked enough times with approach in terms of the last 10 winners aggregate spikes coming in. I know that was a long-winded thing, but it is Cam Young and Scottie Shaffler, the only two golfers in the field to have the incoming spikes that the past 10 winners have shown. So I totally agree with you there. I think he's going to be a popular selection this week rightfully. So going down a little bit, Ben Griffin Harris English, Victor Hovelin, Jake Napp, Ludovig is still there. Chris Goterup, Sam Burns, Kurt Rickey Mav, that's basically everyone from 50 and below and that's some 50 and above. So who are you thinking there? Jake Napp rates out really well for me. I'm not a huge Jake Napp guy, especially up in this range, but it's really hard to ignore

11:23what he's been able to do with the driver putter mix. So I think he deserves to be in this range, obviously. It's just hard to get there from an outright perspective. It's a mental block that I don't know if I can get over. Like you said, Ludvig's there, not big enough in my opinion. Goterup's really interesting. We continue to talk about like, why is he like, I just talked about Jake Napp as a great example. I get that Jake Napp's playing great. Goterup has two wins and it's March two and he has longer odds than Jake Napp. I don't know if that's doesn't make sense. I don't know if that's the books anticipating a nap when coming. They don't like Goterup, I really don't know how to explain that, I guess. Yeah. Goterup has no course history here, but when I was talking to him in Phoenix, he was telling me that he loves living in Florida now. He loves the Bermuda and he's proven to be able to pull it. Like I do like Goterup and then conditions wise, like this is absolutely perfect.

12:27That's like Newtie down there with you, hit that low runner, that's gonna go a mile and stay in the fairway. 42 to 1, this is a really, really good price for Chris Goter, but I also want to touch on Sam Burns. I for you to one, he is a golfer who is like all or nothing, like you're getting that mixer, you're getting like a miscut, which I think is fine for we're talking out right right now. Yeah. And when he gets it going off the tee, he actually gets it going. He can lead the field off the tee with distance and he's one of the greatest Bermuda putty. He was number one on putting last year, I believe. So he is a great Bermuda putter. I think it's a great number. Kenny Beats-Gadi and Murray, I don't know, ask yourself that, but in without markets, in other markets, I think Sam Burns is a nice play in this range of golfers. Yeah, there's a 55 out there with the each way, so we talk about looking at golfers who obviously can contend at really good numbers and I think Sam Burns kind of fits that mold this week. Yeah. All right, let's go down a little bit of a rain. Justin Thomas is back, he is 50 to 1 in this field, JD, Jordan Speeth, Jacob Bridgman

13:31is back since winning, Gerard Nikolai, I'm not going to name every name, Mike Thorough. Who do you like from like 50 to 100, then we'll go triple digits after this range? It was just a click and it's not going to shock anyone, but I did bet Maverick McNeely when there was a 66 out there, it's down to 60. Looking into it a little further, I guess I'm not as excited about it as I was. I mean, he's consistently been gaining strokes off the tee, but he struggled with the putter at Genesis. Of course, history isn't really ideal, but again, I like this version of Maverick McNeely, I like what I've seen this year enough at least to lay a 66 to 1 with the top 6 each way. You mentioned Justin Thomas coming back. Honestly, a lot sooner than I expected heading into this year and a lot sooner than most people probably expected, it looks like there's a 66 on him, which is interesting, but at the same time, you would almost think we would have gotten a better number being his first

14:34event and who knows what his intentions are here, who honestly knows what? I can tell you actually what his intentions are. Let's hear it. I'm not going to win, but last week at TGL, someone's asking like, oh, you're coming back to Bay Hill. He was like, basically like, yeah, I'm coming back and hopefully I can just get out there and make the cut and just have a few put a few rounds. He's in no mental frame to win a golf runner right now. He's worthfully so, but like I did pick up on that. He didn't say it exactly like, oh, yeah, I'm not going to win, but like that was what he meant. Yeah, so 60 to 1, don't think it's a good number, don't think it correlates well to any of the finishing positions. I will just wait and see on just Thomas wishing him the best. Yeah. And end of the day, it's Justin Thomas. So say he's in the mix on the weekend. Maybe his mindset changes where it's like, okay, let's ramp it up a little bit. I have a chance to win Bay Hill. I just don't think he puts himself into that situation and I'm not willing to find out at 66. Yeah, all right. One more guy before we get a triple digits for me. Ryan Gerard. Remember Ryan Gerard last week, he was the chalk of the chalk of the PGA national, played

15:36fine. Got off through a slow start, but that rally back, amazing ball striking as always. It's now three straight weeks since Pebble where he's had really solid full ball striking off the tee and approach. The driver was a little bit of a mess at Tory Pines, but horrible short game. No surprise. The short game is less important this week, in my opinion, if he's minting fairways and greens. He is a Florida guy. He does have his best puttings puts on Bermuda, but I wouldn't really bank on him to putt well, but I think it's a good number, a good bounce back spot for Ryan Gerard. I got one more I forgot about doing research before odds were out last night. Sep Strocka, there's a 68 to one on. If you look at his scorecard from last year here at Bay Hill, he had an opening round of 77, five over, borderline dead last in the field. He played the last three rounds at 12 under to finish in a tie for fifth. If he shoots even par in that first round or one or two over, he's right in the mix.

16:38He kind of forced this way into this tournament, but Strocka was a guy that I had my eyes on and one that I might consider here at that number, almost 70 to one. All right, triple digits. I got one name. This is a smaller field, so like less names in my opinion this week. You can probably get a longer number, but Jonathan Vegas, 775 to one. He posted his best ball striking week in a long time, since St. Jude of last year. And remember, who can forget when he won Quail Hollow or at the PGH Championship obviously didn't win, but he played really well in a very similar style of golf course, long and straight from you to see that really good course history here. Four straight made cuts, nothing insane, but Jonathan Vegas wins on bigboard golf course. I'm not saying he's in a win, but his wins have came on like long, stern track, and this is definitely one of them. So get yourself in the mix with a 775 to one. Maybe you get a little nice little cash out option. So Johnny Vegas, I think is a great play down the board.

17:40Who do you have triple digits before you wrap it back around? Unlike a broken record, but I bet Michael Thorbjornson, again, coming off of a missed cut at the cognizant. I told you before we went live, it keeps happening where I bet a guy one week, and then they are in contention or in the mix or win like Nico, last week, the week after. So I don't want that to happen again. It's not like I don't bet Thorb every single week anyways, but I'm not letting that happen. So I'm not going to pass on a 100 to one Michael Thorbjornson, probably until he's 50 years old. So I like the 100 to one, taking the top six each way. Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, I agree. And I am. He's one of the guys I'm really excited to see tomorrow because the approach play has been a little weak, but he let the poor and greens and reg I think last year. We know that's a part of his game that is solid. So hopefully I see some good things with the irons, but I think it's a great number on

18:43my tea. All right. Let's bring it back around. Let's go two outright, two positionals. And do we have top 40s this week or do they have to be top 20s for the one day? I think there will eventually be top 40s, but for the time being, it's going to have to be top 20s, 20s, starting at where, where in the odds. We could probably do around 80. All right. What we mean by this is we're doing our top 20 slash top 41 and done where we can only use one golfer per year in a positional one and done battle. I am currently up three to one versus the on the weeks that we don't have a winners neither of us hit because they're kind of long shots, but, um, so two outrights. And then the one and done pick and then another, another positional. So I will start. I'll go with Bob Mac 33 to one as my first outright subject, TBD could get the Scotty on Wednesday, but for now, we'll go with Bob Mac to lead the show off.

19:46All right. I am going to go with the guy that I bet first, Maverick McNeely at 66 to one. Uh, like I said, on paper, it doesn't make a ton of sense. Chase in a pretty good number. He's 40, 750 and other spots. So click down to 66, uh, like what Maver brings to the table with the irons. And hopefully he can, uh, mix here at Bay Hill. All right. Second guy outright didn't mention him 101 Daniel burger. Um, burger has the driver's been a little bit of a mess, but the approach has been solid. So if he can find a way to hit fairways this week, he could be a guy that spikes on approach. And we know we can do on Bermuda, although it's not been great of late, but I think it's a good number. Uh, I like burger in difficult conditions. So he's my final out right of the week. All right. I'm going to go with the guy that I didn't bring up, but I actually did that. Um, we didn't even talk on this guy, but another guy returning for the first time, SungJM at 150 to one with the top six each way. Um, for as long as I've been doing this, I've been targeting SungJM at difficult courses,

20:49uh, had had a little bit of a wrist injury. Hopefully he's good enough to come back. I mean, it was kind of under the radar posted on Instagram, like right when the season started with a brace on. So we'll know right away what SungJ we're getting. And at 150 to one, I'm willing to find out as opposed to JT. So yeah, I was, he was going to be my top 10 pick. So I will absolutely love that for sure. Yeah. Yeah. SungJ loves firm and fast conditions. And hopefully he is in good spirits. I will definitely be talking to Willie tomorrow and seeing what the vibes are in the SungJM camp. But I'll pivot my top 10 to, uh, Corey Connors plus 450. The ball striking is not in good spirit right now. But it really has nowhere but up to go. And he's got amazing course history, like just like you said with SungJM, Corey Connors and difficult conditions is something that usually pans out well. So he's going to be my, uh, my positional of the week. All right. I'm going to go with a guy who does not do well in difficult conditions, um, but let's

21:52go with Nikolai Hoigard. I am going to take his top 10 at plus 510. It's out well for me. We know that the distance is there, um, can have spike weeks like you kind of talked about at the top of the show. So I'm going to go with Nikolai Hoigard at five to one for a top 10. All right. One and done time. I'm going to go with a guy, um, it's going to be top 20. But I probably could get a plus money on him for the top 40 as well. But for the sake of the game, he has to finish top 20. That's going to be Joel Damon. Joel Damon coming off of a great week at PG National did not make anything. But the dude who just fairway green, fairway green, fairway green has a top seven already at Tory Pines this year, a top four in his career at Bay Hill. So proven he could do it on difficult tracks. And I just love where he is right now. He's not the longest guy on the field in the field. He's not going to win. But he's got it slotted and he's doing what we're asking for for a top 20. I am going to go with Keith Mitchell.

22:55He rates out extremely well for me, no matter how far back I date it off the T's been extremely strong, especially at Bay Hill. He's gained over two and a half strokes in each of the last five times that he's been here. Has a couple spike finishes, he had a T5 in 2020, a T6 in 2019, a T24 last year. He has consistently played really well. So I'm going to go Keith Mitchell for my top 21 and done. There you have it. Those are the picks. Those are the one and done options or whatever, the outright. But Bay Hill this week, very excited. It should be fun. Hope you guys had a great start to the Florida swing and hopefully we can give you a sweat this week. As always, thank you for joining me and I'll catch you guys next week. Peace out. See you.