143. Bill Gates and Energy (1/2) – the Thesis

Bill Gates is sucking a lot of oxygen in the Energy Transition. Is he a force for good, or a nuisance? What is his thesis and where does it come from? And is the thesis still valid in 2024 or obsolete?

In this episode, we will not analyse Breakthrough Energy Ventures, his VC fund celebrating its 10th anniversary. That will be the topic of Episode 144, next week.

Laurent, Gerard and Michael are going to analyse Bill Gates fascination for Vaclav Smil and David MacKay.  We will dissect how their theories have been consequential in the shaping of Bill Gates’ vision.
We will delve into Smil’s errors, namely the Primary Energy Fallacy, the refusal to consider wind, solar and batteries as viable alternatives and the impact they have had on Bill Gates thinking, and - probably worse - investments.
We will discuss how the Oil Industry has found an ally (probably unwilling, but certainly powerful) in their quest for immobility. Elon Musk might be controversial, but at least he has made the journey in practice, not in theory.
A very heated discussion. And we are not going to make friends here. That’s OK. Country above Party. 

Bill Gates on Smil
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Numbers-Dont-Lie