#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week.

Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada.

During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year.

0:00 Intro

0:36 Early beginnings trading FX

2:24 Trading and writing cartoons

7:14 Writing critical to trading success

12:31 Daily trading plan

16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening

18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term

19:46 Mortgage resets

21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later

23:23 Sell rallies in stocks

24:16 Fed losing credibility

28:03 Playing the optimism trade

30:28 Good time for macro

32:00 Tactical trading approach

34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality

37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001

42:00 What breaks things?

43:43 Magazine cover indicator