Worst Case Scenario

0:00This episode is brought to you by Indeed. Stop waiting around for the perfect candidate. Instead, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs to find the right people with the right skills fast. It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate to see. According to Indeed Data, Sponsored Jobs have four times more applicants than non-sponsored jobs. So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit at Indeed.com slash podcast, Terms and Conditions Apply. Well, that was a fun way to start my morning with my computer forcing a hard reboot, right, as we were going live. Sorry about the wait, but it takes a while to get all the VPNs and all that other stuff set up. So let's get into it. Again, the title of this video is Worst Case scenario. And if you caught the Friday financial wrap up with Ty, you know what we are talking about. We are talking about stagflation. I was encouraged, at least a little,

1:00by the fact that I am not the only one that sees this coming. What do I mean? Fed President Goalsby this week and set. And I quote, stagflation is the worst case scenario. Folks, oil above 90 seemingly want to go to 100. The fact that this conflict, this war certainly doesn't seem like it's going to end anytime soon. We need to realize that stagflation, unlike any time in the last four or five years, might actually be the base case. This might be the most likely outcome. And again, that is not fun to think about. We did get some other fed president speaking. We got fed President Waller. I do not see a lot of tariff price risk left at this point,

2:01basically saying any goods inflation should have rippled through or the economy inside of tariffs. Fed President Bowman, it is too early to tell the impact of the war on the U.S. economy. And then lastly, Fed President Waller said also, why would the Fed sit on its hands if the job market is not good? And again, we got a pretty horrific jobs number on Friday. Jobs number was negative, negative 92,000. There were revisions to December in January for a total of 69,000. The revisions to December were so large that we took December negative as well. But I will be looking at next month's report to see if January is again revised, lower, not a good report. I do want to let you know that because of you, the audience, all of you watching,

3:02I went back to Ryan Pineda and the ball guy. And we had a round two. That video was recorded about a week ago. It was recorded before the Iran conflict. So maybe it was 10 days ago. But that video is now live on Ryan Pineda's channel. You could go see round two. And let's just say this time, I wasn't surprised. I wasn't suckered. I was ready for whatever they had to throw at me. So again, hopefully I did a better job this time supporting our community, supporting the W2 employees. Just talking about what it really takes to get rich or get wealthy. So again, take a look at that video if you would like. I was certainly more prepared and felt better about it. Again, we have oil over $90. What am I asking myself? I am asking myself a couple of things. Will oil hit 100?

4:04I think that's very likely. I think it's very likely that frankly, we hit 100 next week. But will it hit 125 or 150? I don't know. I really don't know. But it is interesting to note that I want to make sure I get this right. I think it was Kuwait. Let me make sure I got this right. Yes, Kuwait. Kuwait actually cut oil production. That's not good. Again, it takes a while to shut these wells down, shut the pipeline down. Again, I'm curious, are they shutting it down because they think it's vulnerable? Or are they shutting it down because, hey, we've got no place to put it. We have no place to ship it. So again, it looks like oil is coming offline, right, when the world is thirsty for it. Again, Iran State TV says we are ready for it. Six month war. Let me just tell you right now,

5:06I hope it doesn't last six months. Shoot, I hope it doesn't last six weeks. In fact, I'm upset. It lasted six days. This is not good. This is not what the world needs. The world does not need conflict or war at this point. Let's just hope it's over, mission accomplished, and let Iran settle themselves out. Fed President Goldberg says rising energy prices will be or could be a challenge. Again, this week, as you'll see in a minute, we will get a CPI reading. But this will obviously be before the Iran conflict. Next month's inflation reading will likely be hot as gas prices ripple through the economy. Fed President Hammock says rates likely on hold for some time. Again, I'm starting to hear more and more fed presidents really hint at talk about being on hold all year. I really think that is something we should think about. Fed President Ron says, hesitant to read too much into only one month's job data.

6:11He's obviously talking about the horrible negative 92,000, for which I would say, dude, look at the last six months. I think out of the last six months, we have four negative numbers and only two positive. If you are looking at only last month's jobs data and thinking it's bad, you're not paying attention. Next week, we got small business survey and existing home sales on Tuesday. Existing home sales are going to be interesting because again, they really disappointed last month. They came in at 3.88 million. That is the low. That is the cycle low. So it'll be interesting to see if we go lower or if maybe January was the bottom. Wednesday, like I said, we get CPI. It's expected to be muted at 2.4 headline, 2.5 core. Again, this is before the oil shock. So again, really a nothing burger because it will be higher next month.

7:11Thursday, weekly claims, housing starts and building permits. And then finally, on Friday, we will get GDP and PCE, personal consumption expenditures, expected to be 2.9 and 3.1. On Friday, we will also get consumer sentiment and the Joltz report or job openings. Don't know if you saw this, but it looks like better.com is in the news. If you guys don't remember, better.com was in the news a few years ago when the CEO did a mass firing. Well, it looks like better.com is now offering perhaps mortgage approvals in 47 seconds. Yes, better.com is leveraging AI for accelerated and fast mortgage decisions. Article I read talked about 47 seconds. I'm curious, will this mean that mortgage brokers go away? Or perhaps maybe they do more mortgages? I don't know. Let me know in the comments below. Obviously, we've talked about Venezuela talking about Iran. I wonder if Cuba is next.

8:16I don't know if you know what's going on with Cuba, but the lack of oil is causing some severe disruptions. They just went 60 hours. That's a two and a half days without electricity. Yeah, that would not be good. That would not be good. Lastly, folks, I do want to let you know about what's going on in our school community. Just today, for example, Sunday, March 8, 10 a.m., there is an accountability group where we go into contracting, burr and flips, 1230, another accountability call, and then at 4 p.m. 4 p.m. today, March 8, you've got Dion doing his binder strategy. This is something you all ask for from the biggest event. Dion was gracious enough to say he would do it and he's doing that this afternoon. If you want to be a part of these accountability groups or binder strategy, all you got to do is join school. Right there on the calendar, you will see what's going on.

9:18We did get some new school members, Stacey, Patrick, Heather, Benke, Joe, and Bal. Thank you all for joining. Make sure you introduce yourself. It is an amazing community. Middle-income home buyers. Got some good news. With rates falling, you now have $30,000 more buying power. That is good news. And then lastly, you know, we've been talking about the K-shaped economy, unfortunately, for three or four years now. Well, it looks like there is an economist that says the K-shaped economy is over. We now have an E, the letter E, like elephant, shaped economy, basically where the top end of the E is doing extremely well, asset owners. Then there is the bottom of the E. They're taking on debt, installment loans, credit cards, and then the middle. These folks are no longer keeping up

10:21with the top tier. They are treading water and spending carefully. Not good news. All right, folks, that's the daily financial news. I again, I apologize for the 10-minute delay. It was because I had to reboot my computer. Get all the security stuff set up and it just takes time. Again, if you want to join school, the link is on the screen. Don't forget that steadily is landlord insurance responsible for saving Olivia and I over 20 grand in 2025. So I hope you have an amazing day. We will be back tomorrow at 7.30 a.m. Take care yourself. Have an amazing day. I get to do four, count them four portfolio reviews starting at 8 o'clock, 8.39 and 9.30. So I am going to have a very fun morning. I hope you do as well. Later.