Will U.S. Allies Hedge? Should They?

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America's allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States?

 

Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore. 

 

Show Links:

 

• James M. Lindsay, "Will US Allies Succeed in Hedging Against the United States?", Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026.

• Shayan Sardarizadeh, X feed.

• Emmanuel Macron, Speech on France's Nuclear Deterrence, March 4, 2026.

• "At Last, Reasons to be Cheerful about European Tech," The Economist, March 1, 2026.

• Henry J. Gomez, "Vance's anti-war posture collides with his more hawkish views on Iran," NBC News, March 3, 2026.

• Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, "Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran," Financial Times, March 3, 2026

• Flight 93 National Memorial (U.S. National Park Service)