Why we should be concerned about retaliation terrorism from Iran

0:00Iran has an extensive cyber capability. It's not just located in Iran. It's a global network of hackers. There, we're already seeing signs that they're seeking to leverage those hackers to conduct attacks against Israeli government, US government, state and local government here in the US, and even private sector critical infrastructure, information systems here in the US as well. That was ABC News contributor and former Department of Homeland Security official, John Cohen, talking about the threat of cyber attacks on the United States. And that is following the strikes against Iran. There are also questions, though, about Canada. Canadian agencies have not issued a public warning at this point. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney says that, well, he talked about this and initially voiced his support for the US action. He then dialed that back a little bit, but does that put Canada on the radar of Iran? And do we have to be worried about attacks? Here, well, Phil Gersky is joining us now,

1:01a former CCCI's counterterrorism analyst and the author of several books on terrorism. Phil Gersky, thank you for being with us. Thanks for having me, I appreciate it. Should we be concerned about cyber attacks or any retaliation of that kind from Iran? Absolutely. And while I'm not a cyber expert, I wouldn't pretend to be, but we do know that Iranian cyber hacking is just severe around the world. Hasn't for quite some time. The other thing we need to worry about is what Iran is very good at. And I've learned this by talking to Iranian Canadians is what we call transnational repression. This is where they target people who are dissidents, who fled the regime, who are critical to the regime online or in public, and they basically threaten them or their families with distribution if they don't stop criticizing the government. So even though Iran's on the back foot right now, because of the, as you mentioned the US-Israeli strikes, I'm still hearing from Iranian Canadians that there's a nervousness that Iran may still want to target them if they're celebrating the death of coming to you, if they're celebrating the air strikes, et cetera.

2:02So I think Iran is a major player and has been for the better part of a half century. And to ignore that, we do so at our peril. What do you think the attacks, you mentioned that kind of that type of oppression, but if we look at potential cyber attacks or where Canada might be the most vulnerable, where do you think that might be? Again, it's hard to say. And I don't want to speak too much of this cyber specifically, but I mean, everything is vulnerable, right? I mean, the fact that Mr. Carney came on initially and supported the attack, and then as you said, he dialed it back a little bit. That puts us on the radar as well. And my understanding is the prime minister said, we may in fact have some role to play at some future point. If in fact we do contribute in any way shape or form, Iran will see us as part of the aggressor. They'll see us as a contributing party to the attacks on their country and on their regime. And as a consequence, they're going to want to retaliate. And as I said, my understanding is that Iranian cyber activists, activists are very good at what they do. And a lot of systems would be very vulnerable,

3:03everything from your own emails to banking, to critical infrastructure, to whatever. So my hope is that the people who understand cyber understand how to protect it are aware of these threats and are taking the necessary precautions and make sure it doesn't happen. Right, and it almost feels like we have to take a bit of a leap of faith. If we look at the response and that US agencies in some cases are on a heightened alert, we haven't really heard that much publicly here in Canada. But do we have to make that leap that they are taking it seriously? I wish I knew, because one thing that's certainly true about Canada and my I think the claim of this is that some of my former colleagues, we have a very poor intelligence culture and national security culture here in Canada. We don't talk about it. All these things don't talk about it. Our prime minister has gone to India, gone to China. They don't talk about human rights violations. They don't talk about Indians and South spany people in our soil. This may be why you're not hearing what it's so much. I do know that the agencies that are responsible, so I work at CSE before I work at the East Coast, this is how the Medicaid security establishment, the cyber command, they're very good at what they do.

4:05So they're doing their job and sending messages out about what they're seeing. My concern is that it's a government listening. And if you look at the recent history in Canada under the Trudeau government and so far under the Carnegie government, it doesn't seem that national security is being taken seriously. And that keeps me awake tonight. And not to sound at all like fear mongering or anything, but looking though, like you said, at this possibility and the fact that based on the Prime Minister's comments when this first happened, it was showing that Canada was supporting this. So would we also then potentially be looking at smaller scale targeted attacks? Or do we have to at least keep that in mind that there is that possibility of that happening on Canadian soil? For certain, I just read today where both Belgium and Germany, their security agencies have said they're sort of on alert to the possibility of terrorist attacks in Germany and Belgium on the Iranian expats committee because that's what the Iranians do.

5:07And I think we'd be very naive to think that can happen. We have a large Iranian diaspora in here in Canada. It's about 100,000 people from coast to coast. And they are targeted. I've talked and they haven't received a phone call as an email to threats. So yeah, it's not theoretical. It's happening and it's real. And the fact that we are, you know, whether or not, again, whether that we participate more in the attacks on Iran, we're part of basically the Western Alliance. And, you know, Iran doesn't like the Western Alliance and they would kind of lop us in with all the other partners. So it must be taken seriously and that's not fear-mongering. That's just being smart. Looking at what's happening there, what, you know, following events that happen and the Iranian regime is basically it's fighting for its own survival right now. And that's why it's flashing out with missile attacks on the Persian Gulf. So I think they wouldn't, you know, get proxies to carry the attacks on the West that's being very naive. And one other question on that, and when we look at you mentioned that the Iranian expat community and certainly there is an Iranian community here in BC, but with Israel's involvement as well, is that also a concern with the Jewish community

6:10or places say places of worship and places where we have seen violence in the past? For sure. And again, we're very back to what I said about Germany, the German equivalent of thesis, the BFB, expressly stated, they're worried about Jewish synagogues, they're worried about schools, they're worried about, you know, Jewish restaurants and businesses being targeted by Iran and Iranian proxies. So look, we saw it here during the whole Gaza thing with people attacking synagogues and girls schools in the greater Toronto area. We had a tax flow here in Ottawa and in Quebec. They think the Iranians wouldn't target you're in Canada, Jewish institutions, you can't think that way, but I'm not saying it's gonna happen, then again, I don't want to fear longer, but is it distinct possibility, and I'm pretty sure that my former colleagues of CSIS and the RSTMP are well aware of this, they're taking steps to gather the intelligence necessary to keep these institutions protected. What should people do, do you think? Obviously, and again, not suggesting we shouldn't be living in fear and be all consumed by this, but is there something or is there anything individuals can do?

7:12Not really, the chances of our attack, they're not zero, but they're not 100. I think you go about your business. I wouldn't travel to the Persian Gulf any time soon on a flight to Dubai if I were you, but aside from that, the thing with terrorism, which what I specialized in, you can't give in to fear and thinking that you're gonna be in the wrong place of the wrong time on a given day, because it happens so infrequently here. I mean, I wrote a whole book on the history of terrorism in Canada, and it is a very infrequent occurrence. So I wouldn't take any special measures, but I mean, it's just, you know, be smart. Read what's happening in the news. Read, you know, the warnings coming out from security services, consume it, you know, you know, you can buy it. And if they give you specific suggestions on what to do and what not to do, I would follow them. All right, that is good advice. Phil Gersky will leave it there for today. Thank you for coming back on the show. Anytime, thanks for having me. Jackson, you had has a great tax prep deal, $149 or less. Missing out is like ignoring the check engine light in your car. You regret it. Seriously, the price is only $149 or less, no matter how complicated.

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