What I Bet - Friday March 27th

0:00The world moves fast. You work day, even faster, pitching products, drafting reports, analyzing data. Microsoft 365 Co-Pilot is your AI assistant for work. Built into Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and other Microsoft 365 apps you use, helping you quickly write, analyze, create, and summarize. So you can cut through clutter and clear path to your best work. Learn more at microsoft.com slash M365 Co-Pilot. MUSIC Welcome in the latest episode of What I Bet. This is episode 27 on March 27th. So hopefully we can align moons and planets and all that sort of stuff to get us 27th episode on March 27th. I'm your host, Runerscord You Warner. If you are not subscribed to be straight out of Vegas, podcast feed, please do that wherever you get your podcasts. I'm at 3 on the score. Do you want to request all sorts of media platforms

1:01from follow across Instagram, Patreon, YouTube, everywhere you can. Twitter, of course. And we're going to go through a little bit of a riff on the sweet 16 that was just concluded on this Thursday night recording for Friday, March 27th. Also going to go through a quick look at the early elite eight numbers that have just come out. Also go through a big or at least a decent major league baseball card on Friday the 27th of March. Get you a promo code to save some money at pregame.com and get out of here with a What I Bet. We are 4-1-1 last six rough push the other night in the Tulsa NIT game. But you know, we'll find a bet most likely in the major league baseball to try to get you some action for Friday. We'll start in I guess the sweet 16, some dominant performances tonight. Also some big collapses. A lot of things all over the place. I think it might even be you just get into the numbers of the elite eight game. And then we can kind of talk about exactly what happened on the to get us here. Iowa six and a half point dogs to Illinois

2:02in a battle of big 10 teams. Illinois one by six on Iowa's home floor earlier this season. Told us one is 139. And my first interest is of course to look towards the under in this one. I think we saw an incredible shooting performance from Nebraska early tonight in the sweet 16 opener in this game was in Houston. Illinois somehow beat Houston in Houston. But didn't really seem like a gigantic crowd advantage, which is probably pretty disappointing. And might be one of those issues that Calvin Samson addresses in the post game press conference is probably going on currently. But to speak more to the Iowa Nebraska game. I mean, ton of great shooting early. I think a fair amount of surprise that Nebraska was able to do a patent sanfer was certainly a great three point shooter. But I don't know that a lot of people really expected. I mean, we know from the marketplace that it didn't. Total was 131.5. Here we got about seven and a half more points. Probably reflects a much better Illinois offense. And potentially some fouling late as that last game though

3:06only was ended up closing with Iowa one and a half point under dogs to Nebraska four seed versus nine seed. Here we got nine seed versus three seed. Seeds don't really matter. So you can throw those out. But Iowa is a six and a half point under dog because Illinois has been one of the best teams in college basketball. And really what I think even, I mean, it got a technical for Phil Martelli Jr. son of Phil Martelli, famous coach of St. Joseph's and spent some time on the Michigan sideline and filling in for John Hower while he suspended. But I think Phil Martelli Jr. screamed during the VCU Illinois second half in the round of 32 game. That you don't respect us, you're giving us no respect because there weren't any fouls being called. I believe it was 19 to zero at Fritos at that point from Illinois against VCU. But Illinois is basically the Eastern block. They've built one of the biggest teams in all of college basketball probably in history. I think that the tallest in college basketball this year

4:07and yes, there are a bunch of Eastern Europeans but there's a huge pipeline of pros that never would have come to college basketball because they got paid or have been being paid to play for a long time that made them an eligible in the NCAA. Well, Brad Underwood has somehow found a shuttle bus that goes basically from Serbia, Croatia, all those Yugoslavian and former country nations into Champaign, Illinois. And it's working really well. I guess forget about the Chicago recruiting Chicago and just go for these Europeans while that recruiting ground used to be. So really so awesome and what made Kansas's program so great at getting a point car from Chicago every year it seems, Ron Collins and others. But it almost been great. They're gonna keep Iowa off the free throw line. I think that's almost guaranteed. Especially with Iowa really playing a game that they wanted to spread the floor shoot threes. Use a lot of matchups and switching which I think helped with Nebraska tonight. Though they were certainly losing in half time at a good run to kind of get close for it before the half

5:07and then ended up taking a late lead with about two minutes to go in the second half. Nebraska led almost throughout kind of a mirror image to what we saw with the Vanderbilt game. But Vanderbilt was not able to hold on to a lead that they took Iowa certainly was able to. In this matchup, I expect Iowa to play the slowest tempo you can try to keep as low scoring as possible. They were very quick earlier tonight. I think because Nebraska was shooting really well and it kind of sped up the game. I imagine that's a risk for Illinois and this is a quick turnaround but these two teams should know each other very well and preparation should have basically already been done so far this season. So you just need to look back what they did and probably expect some changes just to kind of throw the teams off a little bit but I think we'll see what might be a grind of a game on Saturday, the early Matt and A game or 509 Central time 609 Eastern. To late game, we have Purdue and Arizona. Purdue five and a half point dogs. It was 152 and a half. Arizona dominated and out, excuse me, an Arkansas team that look like the underdog

6:11and the underdog with a weaker defense is really not one. I think they say in college basketball broadcast Steven Bardow back in the day, I don't know where he went but he used to say, you know what? Doesn't last long in this world, dogs that like chasing cars and teams that don't shoot free throws away from home well. That was certainly a reference to the first game but then also I think you can add teams that don't play defense and try to outscore you as an underdog and Arkansas were a pretty big underdog. Darius Acuff got junior, got his. A lot of ill discipline as the game kind of got out of hand. It was probably arguably over at half time at 11 point spread I think it was but Arizona is catching some money right now, probably based on how well they played and Purdue really struggling with a Texas team that is so limited. Texas did their credit, my alma mater, did make a lot of threes and a lot of shots that certainly helped them stay in a game that probably they had no business being in, Purdue started hot but then kind of faltered for a while and I think that's been a question up Purdue.

7:11I mean, seven seed in the big 10 yes with unbalanced schedules and playing a much harder schedule than most is a likely preseason favorite but got it to seed after winning the big 10 and this is gonna be a really, really big test. Arizona size is unmatched. Illinois might be taller but Arizona is just so thick and tall at every position it seems and that's a big, big problem. But Purdue, I mean issue threes and that's what they want to do. They're about this price against Michigan and the big 10 final on a, I think a third game in three days or a fourth game in four days maybe. So it played really, really well in that one. Arizona certainly looks like the favorite should be the favorite but Purdue can shoot threes and that's something they can equalize every game. Braden Smith is gonna be tiny Jayden Bradley might eat him alive but running flustered lawyer, flustered lawyer, flustered lawyer off of screens and seeing how hot he can get is certainly a way to do it. And then the big question is how much can TKR Drake Offman run flop?

8:12I mean score, flopped a ton against sex has got a couple of ridiculous calls survived a flagrant one that he really got called a good offsetting and then took one earlier I guess or I guess that was more CJ Cox but a lot of embellishment and it was getting rewarded. We'll see if that happens. If it doesn't Arizona's tough front line might be really, really difficult to be against. But Purdue does get five and a half points right now with a lot of juice on Arizona's. We could see this climbing to six and potentially higher than that as they certainly had the more impressive and cover at which Arizona did not, Arizona did pretty good not in their victory. Now we get something that I'll probably lean to the dog they're more strongly than to and over and under. I think it Purdue shoots really well as likely goes over if they don't shoot well. It's gonna be really hard for them to cover and probably like under which doesn't make a lot of sense because usually you want favorites and over dogs and under but this might be one of those that bucks that trend. We've now to the Major League baseball slate on Friday, March 27th.

9:12We will give you a promo code coming end of shows to stick around for that. We'll start with a Getaway Day game between the Yankees and the Giants after opening regular season on March 25th. Now fast forward after an off day though San Francisco you don't really need one. But say LaVie with the New York Yankees a might as one 18 favorite. Apologies late night with the Reel Under Squared you want her as you'll find on all my podcasts. There's some yons in it, but we'll find a way to sleep. Maybe some sleep in May as I guess John Rossing likes to say in the college basketball world. The Giants start Robbie Ray. He's a plus one oh seven hundred dog totals, seven and a half with a lot of juice to over. Pretty dominant effort from the Yankees and the opener, seven nils, seven nothing, shut out victory. Max Fried got through some trouble in the first. Logan Webb couldn't survive any in a second. Game kind of got out of hand and then it was really tough to respond from there. But that, you know, every nice thing about baseball he's played 162.

10:14A lot of questions certainly about San Francisco Giants manager who came straight off the college world series diamond in Tennessee in Knoxville specifically. And Robbie Ray, I mean can be one of those pitchers in baseball. His numbers are not always great, but on his good days he can be elite, miss a lot of bats and that's certainly something that's helpful against Yankees lineup and wants to hit the ball at the ballpark. The ball should carry a lot better during the day. There was a lot of wind blowing out in the opener, but home runs weren't really a thing. It's more seemingly some powerful shots that stayed in the park. But, Kampsteadler I think starting for the Yankees is a bit of a question mark because of his rookie season last year, sophomore slump is a serious thing in baseball and honestly seeing how he can perform, especially with what likely will be training wheels on all season or being handled with kids to go out and try to keep that arm as healthy as possible. Total feels a little bit large for me at 7.5. I'm not really an over player, more unders and underdogs

11:16across all sports as everyone would realize. If you listen to me on any sort of podcast going in the past, but I think there's a little bit of value on a low scoring game, getaway day, bullpen's arrested, I certainly want to keep, I guess you don't want to be in a 162 game pace, but I mean, giants certainly a lot more desperate, not starting to shoot you out with a home sweep and manager, first time manager trying to get some victories under his belt, certainly would help in that one too. Lean of course to home underdog is that's always my, my stick. I do think the Yankees are not built for this park, they want to hit home runs and that's not what you do in San Francisco. And the giants lineup is okay, but after scoring nothing in the first game, though against a top of the line starting pitcher and we have a different story here, but that's all comes together and makes me lean to the underdog and the under. Move next to the athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays, I want to say they're opening their season, Luis Severino plus 147 underdog at Toronto,

12:18almost defending a World Series title, but that didn't go great. Totals eight and a half of this one, just all the way to over, probably sees climbing towards nine. Severino was awesome outside of Sacramento last season. He is, how do I say this? Or he even said it. He didn't think that Sacramento was a real, measurly baseball stadium because it's not AAA. And if not for ridiculous management and all sorts of things, they would be playing a real stadium. But until Las Vegas gets built, we'll deal with Sacramento and we're not there anyway. So in Toronto, probably weather's a little bit frightful outside, but that's a nice part about a dome. You don't have to worry about that. Jays and Kevin Gosman was pretty into inconsistent last season. It was great in the playoffs and it was a big reason they got the World Series. Well, this is a big spread. I don't know if there's enough for me here to want to back the athletics, probably see a low scoring game here potentially early in the season, but likely mean shorter pitch counts for the starting pitchers and probably more bullpen.

13:19Moving next to Colorado Rockies, visiting the Miami Marlins in one of the most interesting series last year. I think the Rockies were favored in four games in Miami. The Miami was at the pit of their valuation. And I think Marlins maybe swept three, but swept the series and we're paying out every night. Well, big change here. Sandy Alcantra is a minus 187 favorite. The Rockies Kyle Freeland plus 169. Nice total seven and a half. Just more to the under two teams that probably will not be in my card much this year. And I don't know that I want much to do with them on opening day. Moving next to the Royals and they are visiting the Atlanta braids Cole Reagan's at Chris sale. It's not just something you may hate. It's the privilege that you get to work with your hands. It's building something that serves a purpose. Proof that you have the grit to keep going. At Simpland, we understand you take your craft seriously and we do too, which is why our products are built to the highest quality. We put in the work so you can perfect yours with purpose in every detail and crafted with intention.

14:21Simpland built on craft. Visit Simpland.com to shop. Reagan's plus 122 minus 135 on Chris sale. It was seven juiced very heavily to over minus 128. I'm not sure I believe in Atlanta Braves as much as a lot of the market. Yes, there's an expectation that they will bounce back this season. We'll see Chris sale. Always a question mark with health and availability, but you start an opening day. So it's about as healthy as you can probably expect to be all season. But Cole Reagan is a great arm. The Royals have some prospects in their system right now or new catcher potentially moving to Salvador Perez to DH and first base potentially keeping him a little bit more healthy after a pretty down season in 2025. Bobby would, of course, one of the best and highest finish the baseball draft picks. So we'll see what he is able to put out there or muster. But the Braves to love Ronald Kudner, one of the most electrifying and most important number generators out there and certainly important on odds.

15:22It probably makes sense that the Braves are favored or a little cheaper than I expected actually, but lean to the road underdog in that matchup. Moving next to the Angels, visiting the Astros about all the AL West, two teams that I think are going in the wrong direction. You say Kukuchi of former Astros success, they're basically told on the spam slider. Visiting Michael Burrows, Mike Burrows coming over from Pittsburgh, I believe in the last season. Kukuchi plus 140, totals eight and a half, just a little bit more to over. It's going to take a lot to back the Angels this year. And I got to say the Astros look like a team I want to fade. So two teams I want to fade playing each other, probably one that I can look past. To the later slate on the West Coast, we have the Detroit Tigers and Framber Valdez, big offseason signing from Houston specifically. San Diego Padres, Stark, Michael King, went to a great high school. We actually retired his number this year. And the Padres are minus 120 favorite plus 109 on the Tigers, total seven minus 127 to the over right now at Beton Line. This is a good question on what Framber Valdez is going to do.

16:24Getting out of Houston, we'll see if that was a Houston thing or a Framber Valdez thing. I trust the pitcher, he's got a great arm and has been really great for a lot of years and I'll let back in him. An interesting surprise after the Tigers closed a favorite with Terrick Scoobel on opening day to then play another game the next day as an underdog. Renek Pavetta changing to Michael King doesn't seem like a big change to me in starting pitchers, but certainly fair downgrade from Terrick Scoobel to Framber Valdez. But Valdez is great pitcher. He eats a ball in the yard. That's not really a huge concern in San Diego. But I think he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. And I don't know that Michael King really proved that he was consistent enough last season. So it's probably why I didn't get the opening day not. Well, Nick Pavetta was out there all season stopping a lot of losing streaks and such for the Padres. I lean to the Tigers plus 109 on the road tomorrow night. Two games left to discuss on this card. We have Cleveland Guardians, Gavin Williams at Seattle and George Kirby.

17:24George Kirby minus 160 feels like a pretty big price. Total seven on this one juice pretty heavily to over plus 145 coming back on, excuse me, Gavin Williams minus 102 in the under. Gavin Williams was awesome closing last season. A lot of it was not sustainable with a straining a lot of runners, not a lot of strikeouts, but was striking out a lot of batters in the season. And honestly, Gavin Williams has been a huge prospect for Cleveland going back years and years. So I'm more of a believer, I think. And I also wonder the success that Seattle had last year if that makes them a much bigger favorite at home, especially where they've been good over the years. But it's not had, not reached such great heights in the Major League Baseball playoffs in a long time, well, maybe since the A-Rod Randy Johnson days, but those didn't end in World Series Champions either. I think the price for me is a little bit right on Cleveland plus 145. They've certainly got bullpenced up to figure out after their clothes were suspended the last season.

18:25Or I think for throwing pitches in the dirt and a lot of people making money off first pitch ball when he comes into an outing. But total also interested me because it's really hard to hit in Seattle. Ball flies a little bit earlier in the day, which 845 Central Time Start. It's like, guess, right on schedule for where usually the night game is in Seattle. So if you don't get them early, it's going to be hard. So I think under seven looks very interesting. It was very heavily juiced to under seven and a half. But that's a number I'll pay for it because I believe in my, one of my bed in the pitch podcast, co-hosts, Andrew Krishnickery, he always says a push is a free movie because you don't get to go to the movie for free, see something, get her in pain for two or three hours, and then leave home without spending anything. So that's something out there as well. And save you some juice in the long run. And the last game in the list, Ryan Nelson, the Arizona Diamondbacks visits the Los Angeles Dodgers and Emmett Sheen, currently she in minus 217 favorite, and that's climbing from when I saw it earlier. Right now plus 1.95 coming back at Ryan Nelson,

19:26tolls 8.5, juice very heavily to over right now. Only 20 cent lines at bed online. So if you're looking for a new sports book, hit me up at the room and just go to the corner and press any social media platform. But she ends a big, big prospect for the future. We'll see what he ends up looking like when he's in the rotation for at least the start of the season. We'll see how long it lasts. Ryan Nelson has had some good outing at the Dodgers. I probably want to back him at home as a nerd dog, not in Chavezervine, where unfortunately the home runs are really, really punishing, and that's what the Dodgers are built to do. Before we get to the ultimate best bet portion, or the what I bet end of show, let's get out there and throw out a promo code to save some money at pregame.com. Use the promo code Spring 25. Essence and Sam Pies and Peter, Arz and Rico, IZ and India, and as in Nike, G's and George, 25, go for $25 off anything, including March, Madness, All Access, this comes with subscriptions. You can do Major League Baseball, Rest of Year, full year, probably first half of the season, all sort of thing, just a week under. If you want to try out some soccer stuff as well for me,

20:26throw that out there and you can work for any promo code. We'll work for anybody on pregame.com. Use that promo code Spring 25, go for $25 off at pregame.com. For my best bet, real underscore, if you want to, what I bet portion of the show, I'm gonna go with from Revaldez plus 109, the Detroit Tigers, go take that all the way to the bank, and we'll see you in the next episode of what I bet. Toot good and co-coffee creamers are made with farm fresh cream, real milk, and contain three grams of sugar per serving.

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