What does the U.S. want from war with Iran?

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GRAD. W-B-U-R podcasts. Boston. To be clear, this was a war of

choice, not necessity. Iran had not issued a threat to the United States. We just

decided this was a good time to whack them again. The U.S.-Israeli War against Iran is expanding,

with counterattacks by Iran against American bases and allies across the Middle East.

It's Monday, March 2nd, and this is here and now any time from NPR and WVR. I'm Chris Bentley.

The U.S. and Israel have started a war with Iran that has already expanded into several countries

in the region and killed hundreds of people, including civilians. We'll get a few perspectives on

today's show from a retired American lieutenant general who worries about the apparent lack of a

plan or even objectives with this war. Those extremists will come to the forefront and will

argue that the nation is under siege and under greater threat, so it remains to be seen what's

going to happen. And from an Iranian-American and former political prisoner who's been calling

for regime change for years. But first, this is the second time in less than a year that the

United States and Israel have attacked Iran. Well, the last war lasted only 12 days. President

Trump says this one could last weeks. At the Pentagon this morning, Chairman of the Joint

Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain offered no timeline. This is not a single overnight operation.

The military objectives at Senkham and the joint force have been taskwists will take some time

to achieve, and in some cases will be difficult and greedy work. Even the president's timeline of

several weeks could be a vast under-estimate, says hearing now security analyst Jim Walsh.

He's with MIT's Security Studies program. He spoke to Indira Lakshmanan.

Well, when you think back to the attack in June, which was much more limited in narrow and scope,

that went on for 12 days. And the point there was to try to hit some nuclear facilities. You're

talking about regime change. It's going to take quite a while. Now, remember, we use the word

regime change. But if you're on the other end of that stick, that's regime survival. Most countries

fight very hard not to be destroyed and to survive. So, and if you're not going to put people

on the ground, all you're going to do is bomb from the skies above. This is going to be a very

difficult mission. Well, Jim, let's try to parse those U.S. goals, because the president this weekend

indeed said he was attacking the Islamic regime and that it would be up to the Iranian people

to seize the moment and build a new government for themselves. He said, I made you a promise.

I've kept that promise. Now it's up to you. This is your one chance to build a new government.

That sounds like regime change. But just today, Secretary Hegseth said, this isn't a regime

change war. And the president has just said at the White House that he ordered the attack to

thwart Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile program. So, is this or isn't this a regime change war?

Well, I got to say off the top that it's not, it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that

after day three, they're changing their story, right? This was supposed to be a week and change.

Now it's four to five weeks, maybe much longer. It was originally regime change, regime change,

regime change. Now they're backing off. Well, it's a little hard to back off. After you kill the

leader of the country, you say it's regime change and Israel is constantly calling it regime change.

So it doesn't matter what Hegseth says at a podium, what matters is what the Iranians believe,

and they believe it's about regime survival. President Trump today said he wouldn't rule out

U.S. boots on the ground in an interview he did with the New York Post. He also told CNN's Jake

Tapper that a big wave is yet to come that we haven't seen anything yet. We know that Americans

don't want U.S. troops overseas, especially after the long, deadly entanglements in Iraq and

Afghanistan has the president made a case to the U.S. public for putting boots on the ground.

He hasn't made a case for the war at all. There's been no case. There's been nothing like

out as there was in previous occasions describing the state of Iran's program. He had previously said

it was obliterated. We know they haven't restarted the sensitive facility. So how is it that it is a

suddenly overnight a threat? And again, the U.S. intelligence community has said four decades

and up until this moment that Iran is not actively engaged in a working nuclear weapons program.

It has nuclear assets. It has enriched material, but it does not have an active nuclear weapons

program. Now, it certainly has ballistic missiles, but that's their defense. Like no country's going

to say, oh, I'm going to go defenseless. So Israel can attack me anytime it wants to.

And to be clear, this was a war of choice, not necessity. Iran had not issued a threat to the

United States. We just decided this was a good time to whack them again. Six months after having

already done it once. So we know that an Israeli strike killed Iran's supreme leader on Saturday.

Now with Ayatollah Hamaneh, who was in power for 36 years dead, what happens in Iran now?

Well, in theory, what you would have is the assembly of experts, which is a governmental body made

up of clerics, would meet and select a new leader. And that's the sort of thing that would happen

if Hamaneh had died of old age or something. But you know, we're in the middle of a war now.

You'll remember back in the June attack, only six months ago, seven months ago,

that Hamaneh, in anticipation of being killed, actually pre-designated three potential successors.

And so I expect that it will move in that direction. I'm not sure they'd want to pull together a

big, you know, group together of the assembly to select that now. I think it's probably happening

behind the scenes. As you said, Jim, the president last summer said that he had totally obliterated

Iran's nuclear program, which as you've just said kind of takes away the argument then that the

purpose for this was to obliterate the program that's already been obliterated. But tell us what

does victory for the Trump administration look like in Iran? Well, that's the question, isn't it? Like

before you enter a war, you're supposed to figure out your objectives, the costs you're willing to

pay, the objective you're trying to achieve, and how you would know if you reach that objective.

Now, if your objective is regime changed, that's one set of metrics. If it's obliterating a

previously obliterated nuclear program, that's a different set of objectives. So it depends on what

the president wants. But if it's regime change, it will be very difficult to achieve.

So the president just said that his goals are to destroy missile capabilities and annihilate Iran's

navy. Ensure Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and ensure the regime can't arm and sponsor

groups outside its borders in the few moments we have left Jim reaction. Yeah, well, it's what the

navy part is hilarious. You know, if you can laugh about it because Iran doesn't have a navy,

it was never a naval power. That's like, I don't even know what that's about. I think it's going to

be very hard to achieve all those objectives. And I expect that tomorrow they will change and the

day after that, they will change. And we will hear a different story depending on how things

go on the ground and in the air. Jim Walsh from MIT Security Studies program here now,

analyst. Thank you so much. Thank you.

We'll get some more analysis of what the U.S. is even doing with this war and what might happen

next after the break.

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Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hurtling served 38 years in the Army. He was deputy commander

for U.S. forces in Baghdad. In 2007 and 2008 he served as a division commander controlling northern

Iraq, leading nearly 100,000 troops of American soldiers and Iraqi army units. So far the American

Israeli war in Iran has been in the form of air strikes. Retired Lieutenant General Hurtling

told Robin Young that air campaigns can destroy things but what they can't do by themselves

is build political outcomes. What we're seeing is terrific strikes and external strikes alone

rarely produce democratic changes. They sometimes even in countries and unfortunately I have a

great deal of scar tissue from Iraq on this. They sometimes strengthen hardliners. They create

additional chaos and they bring a lot of extremists on both sides to the forefront who will

in the case of Iran because of their culture in the last 47 years since the revolution

have become somewhat rabid and have accused the U.S. and Israel of being the great Satan.

So those extremists will come to the forefront who will argue that the nation is under siege

and under greater threat. So it remains to be seen what's going to happen.

Well, you know Iranian experts have been saying that there's far fewer of the supporters of

this extreme ideology of the supreme leader than there were maybe 50 years ago of the first

supreme leader now. But you know it sounds like you're saying what we have seen in recent wars

that it tips the balance when it is another country coming and involving you into regime change.

You might even bring out people who also disliked that regime.

Well, and the mantra of it being regime change implies there's going to be a new regime.

But right now we don't know who that is or how it's going to take charge of a country.

And when you continue to bomb the security forces, which I mean we can debate whether or not those

are valid targets in terms of what we're trying to do. But if you continue to eliminate the security

forces, if you've eliminated most of the leaders, if you've used cyber weapons to

thwart the potential for communication between people who might be standing up a new regime,

it's going to be much more difficult. So there is not going to be the cohesion that you would expect

or that we even saw in Iraq and Afghanistan where the regimes were replaced. Now they weren't

replaced very effectively in many cases. But at least there was a plan. Right now, I don't see a

plan. There may be one. I just don't see it for replacing the leaders. You know, Secretary Hegseth

said this morning that the regime has been replaced. I'm not sure that's true. I think we've

decapitated the regime, but without a replacement that would lead the people into a new tomorrow.

Well, and this again, this language sounds so familiar, decapitated the leadership.

We spoke, you know, 20 years ago about, oh, wait, wait, this is a snake with many heads,

you know, not just one. I mean, it's horrible. You know, the word decapitation is horrible,

but you say there's a persistent belief in Washington that enough explosions will cause the

Iranian people to rise up against their government. History suggests otherwise. Authoritarian

regimes facing external attack often consolidate internal control, even when their leaders are eliminated,

which is kind of what you're saying. I could you comment more? You talked about having some

scar tissue, you know, from the last two wars, Iraq in particular. I've been thinking about this.

I've been hearing over the weekend, different people like General David Petraeus also has that

scar tissue, and others saying that they anticipate that in order for there to be the change that

the US seems to be looking for, there need to be at least 500,000 US boots on the ground, and it

takes six months to train them. I've heard this several times. It reminds me of before going into

the past wars. We heard from analysts like the great Anthony Cortesman, who said the same exact

words, half a million, you know, 500,000 boots on the ground and people are like, no, that can't be.

What is your sense if in fact, and you know, what is his saying that that's the direction we're

going and everyone saying there won't be boots on the ground. But do you agree that if there are,

that's how many there would be needed? I would say even more than that. This is not an environment

that is replicates Iraq at all. You're talking about a country that's three times, three and a half

times the size of Iraq, with about three times the number of people. It has, there are 90 million

citizens of different ethnic varieties. You have Kurds, you have the Shia, you have all all sorts

of extreme views in terms of the culture inside of Iran. It is a beautiful culture, no doubt about it,

that it has been oppressed, and it has become an evil regime. But when you're talking about

sending Americans in, the same Americans that for the last 40 years, they've been calling the

great Satan, you know, after they've bombed the country and probably killed a significant number

of people, just like in Iraq. In Iraq, I mean, I was in the Pentagon as a war planner in 2002,

when the plans to go into Iraq were being formulated. And there were a lot of the civilian leaders who

said, hey, we sent too many forces to Desert Storm, and we had about 400,000 plus during Desert Storm

in the 1990s. And Secretary Russell said, oh no, we can do it with a quarter of that or a third of that.

Well, he was somewhat contrary to what the military leaders were saying, that they needed much more.

And he said, no, no, we can do it because we're such a great force, and we've learned so much.

Well, we found out that we didn't have the civil affairs forces, we didn't have the military

police to quell revolts, we didn't have the trainers that we needed to retrain the Iraqi army.

There was the establishment of debathification, which created a real hole within the retired

community of military leaders in Iraq and others. You would have that in spades in Iran, I think.

So if people are predicting already how many boots we should have in the ground, that's off

the top of the head, and it's not considering a great mission analysis in terms of what we need

to put on the ground. And if I can just say one more thing, I sure the hell hope we don't do that.

It would be an unbelievably tough environment against probably a determined population that

probably does not want to see Americans on the ground there. Retired Lieutenant General Mark

Kirtling. Thank you so much and thank you for your service. Thank you, Robin. Appreciate it being with you.

One more perspective for you on today's show. Coming up after the break,

an Iranian American shares her thoughts. Robin has that in just a minute.

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So what if it has it been like for members of the Iranian diaspora to watch this war unfold?

Sheeran Naranam became a human rights activist in the pro-democracy movement of the 1979 revolution

that overthrew the U.S.-backed royal dynasty of the Shah, but that imperial state was replaced

by the current Islamic Republic and then supreme leader Homeni. And Sheeran was jailed two years later

at the age of just 16 in a notorious prison where she saw and experienced severe torture.

Sheeran, we welcome you and I guess just want to ask straight away how are you doing today?

Thank you for the opportunity. Well, I feel we are close. We are much closer to end of

regime. It's the theocracy that has been ruling. You know, I have seen death. I have seen how my friends

and family members and cellmates were taken for executions and they were executed. So

and if it wasn't for my belief of and the promise that I made each of them that at each time that

I said goodbye, they asked me not to forget and not to give up and I stayed with those promises

that I made and it was if it wasn't for the support of this particular opposition that I have,

you know, I support the National Council of Resistance, which is led by a woman, Maryam Rajavi.

I would have given up maybe a long time ago, but I always had a hope that this regime will be

overthrown and Iranian people will be free. I just want to ask Sharon because we just had a

military analyst on it and as he writes, the hope is not a method and there's a lot of concern

that while the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hamanay and other senior officials in

Tehran are dead, there's really not a lot of chance for regime change unless there are

U.S. boots on the ground. You've said we have to fight. Who has to fight?

Well, Iranian people, let me let me to be clear. We never ask for any foreign intervention and

we never ask for boots on the ground. This is something that Iranian people have to do it.

We have to do it and only the opposition that has enjoys of a strong support inside of Iran and

has very organized resistance units in Iran can carry this out. So when we are talking about

fighting them, we are talking about us, Iranian fighting back the IRGC members and besieges.

How does this happen? Because we saw even just during demonstrations, these were just

peaceful but vocal protests, thousands of Iranians were murdered.

Exactly. See, we knew all along that this regime is not going to go peacefully and they're

going to fight. That's what you need to have to be able to fight back and that's what we've

been working so hard to ask everyone to the whole world to accept the Iranian rights to fight

back the regime. So now we are in those times. I think it's too early right now. I think

gradually with the patience we are going to see we do have, we enjoy a large support of

resistance units inside of Iran, more than 50,000 units and we are seeing actually since January a

great expansion because people, ordinary people had got to the point that this regime you have to

fight back. This regime is not going to let go. Well, let me ask you, what are you hearing because

there's been a lot of concern that, first of all, the internet is down that everything's being

blocked and the US has cut funds to things like Voice of America. But have you been able to speak

to anyone? Yes, actually, as a matter of fact, I talked to Arnis this morning. She made a quick call

and she told us that all the police stations and judiciary building has been bombed and she said

we see everywhere just explosion and they just called to let me know that they are leaving town,

they are living in Tehran. So she said we are going to leave Tehran for now to go to a safer

place. So as you know, it's what it looks like and we can only see why the films that are videos

and films that are coming from Iran or you know covered in a different ways but what is very clear

and we also know for sure that there were a few of the police stations had been taken over by

the resistance units and they disarmed them and this is how we are becoming armed inside of Iran.

Sheeran, I have to hold you up there just because of our time. I'm just really hoping that we can

stay in touch with you as you stay in touch with family in Iran and what you, as you called it,

the resistance movement, Sheeran Arman, human rights activist, former Iranian political prisoner

and again we will stay in touch with her and others in the diaspora.

That's it for today's show. Here in now any time comes from NPR and WB War Boston. Our producers

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