What can investors reasonably expect based on past patterns

0:00This week's volatility echoes past conflicts like the Gulf, war when oil doubled. What can investors reasonably expect on past patterns if they're any guy at all? Joining me, Ricky Ward, from J.B. Weir, good morning, Ricky. Good morning to the studio. Morning, girl. Look, it has been pretty relentless. People are looking around for a story. Should they be looking back to that period in 1990, 1991 with any sort of certainty? Well, certainty is a strong word, right? I think when you look back, I think everyone says things are the same, but there's always something slightly different. I think you have to go back and look at that environment, you know, in 1990, 1991, same sort of demographics and invasion by a rock, aren't it, correct? No, Q8. To try to get access to oil and a whole lot of other things, all price doubles, same sort of thematic start to unfold here as we speak. You know, the wants and needs if you want something, you know, it's getting under pressure. If you need it, that tends to be doing pretty well. So same sort of thematic's playing out right now. Yeah. I guess we're looking and trying to work out

1:01how this is all going to play out and what kind of signs and signals we can take from a massive military buildup there. Obviously some talk this morning that there seems to be some sort of negotiation going on. I think the Iranian saying we're not talking to America, we're talking to Pakistan, we're talking to our man, we're talking to intermediaries, but there is talking happening. Does that give any kind of guidance? Yeah, I think that's a positive sign, right? I think everyone talks about, you know, President Trump and the art of the deal and for me, it resembles a lot of scribbling, not a bit of paper usually and, you know, in a statement more than an agreement. So, you know, I think when you're talking to people, you tend to get better outcomes. Yeah. Just looking at energy more sort of closely here at home, we heard some interesting sort of shots fired in the political year, really, with one of the parties in Zedvist taking on the energy sector. Yet what's happened with how they're trading? Yeah, they've stood the test time again. You've got a rotation coming out of those uncertain companies into defensives and securities. I just don't need Zedvist. It's not the first time they've campaigned on electricity.

2:04I'm a little bit surprised in this instance that the decided have a crack following a independent review suggesting you're not going to get the outcome to want if you break them up. Right. And that's, I guess, the letter that you put out there, but presumably moving on a, you know, trying to get 5% or 10% of the vote, so perhaps a different target there. Well, I think they're just trying to find a way of addressing what we all know and that life's pretty tough for a lot of people, certainly from minorities, so trying to find a solution to that, breaking them up might not provide that. Hey, just looking at our local market, we've had a couple of slightly slower takeovers and we'll get to KMD in a moment, but Raycon, they've had to roll the clock a couple of times to get the last acceptances in. What's behind that? Yeah, it's often the register. I mean, if you've got a very large retail line of strip, it's really hard to communicate with them. Many months and dads probably don't even know their own. So you're really hard to get to your 90% threshold and that happens, and that's what they're facing into, trying to encourage as many investors as possible to accept it, the independent directors have said recommend it, so it should be supported,

3:05but hard to get hold of them. Yeah, maybe they should have gone for a scheme instead. Hey, KMD, bit of a surprise this week, this is Kathmandu, RIPKURL and oboes, I don't think most people would know that one, but they were supposed to report results this week, then got to day-off and didn't, and what's happening in the background there this year? Well, one, they're also subject to trying to get an acquisition of RIPKURL from a party of unknown value. The biggest issue at the moment, clearly rumours circling in the market at the moment that they need to raise capital, they've stated that, that's the reason behind the delay. I meant to have the result yesterday. You expect that today, difficult is, can erase the money. If the numbers are true, circular, 100 million, companies market capital, 130, that's a recapitalization.