Volatility Escalates: Brace for Another Uncertain Week on Wall Street

0:00I vote two. Kevin Hanks is joining me live at the CBOE. We have a big week ahead, a lot to discuss when it comes to some of the economic prints. But let's start off with the very latest on the Iran War. Good morning to you, Kevin Hanks. Good morning, Nicole. Yes. So far, it appears that there's, you know, we know there's extreme comments being made by President Trump and the Trump administration. But behind the scenes, it appears that Pakistan is mediating some type of a ceasefire, either if it's short term or as much as 45 days that is being reported. But the deadline is the end of the day Tuesday. So 36 to 48 hours is what we're looking at there. The, you know, the stock futures with the S&P and NASDAQ are modestly higher because crude oil futures are modestly lower. So that ease of tension there in the crude oil market leads to a little ease of

1:00tension in stocks. How will it play out? Obviously, even though we have a big week for economic data and there's going to be a lot of potential things that could move the market there, we all know that the biggest reason stocks are where they are and the VIX is where it is is because of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. So if there's lessening of those tensions, stocks could react either modestly higher or sharply higher. But obviously, they could go in either direction to call it all depends. Do we get some resolution or we, or do we escalate? And so that will find out either any minute or in the next 48 hours, Nicole. All right. Well, look, I'm waiting minute to minute. Happy that the date has been pushed back right today. April 6th was supposed to be the big date. The next sort of doomsday date. I'm glad that they're talking and I think it's a little slower to go, but they are talking and

2:02that is in fact good news there. So Brent crude at 108 crude oil at 110. Let's get to the jobs report. Look, the numbers seem so strong. I know we have to come through it, but it wasn't a bad thing when you said, 178,000 non-for perils. I was like, oh, the good is, you know, there was sort of that sense of relief for a moment. Wasn't there? Yeah, it was good headline numbers with 178,000 jobs. It was a good headline unemployment dropping to 4.3% wages, a point two that was better than expected, lower than expected. Remember, if you're looking at the inflation side of the non-farm perils report, it's the wages and wages were lower than expected, year-over-year wages 3.5%. That is down three tenths from last month. So the number was almost across the board good. A little concerning labor force participation rate ticked down to 61.9%, which indicates people

3:05leaving the workforce and not seeking jobs. So little concern there, but besides that, all good numbers across the board, they're a good solid number, a good solid recovery from a number that was negative 92,000 revised to negative 133,000. So big recovery from last month's numbers. But as I can tell you, I'm not sure that that will mean something if the pressure comes off the market with geopolitical tension. So all these numbers, and we're going to get a big week of economic data this week. From our durable goods, Wednesday, the Fed minutes come out, Thursday, GDP, jobless claims, personal income and outlays, and then Friday, CPI, consumer sentiment. So we have a big week of economic data as we get ready for the start of first quarter earnings season, but right now, as you know, all of this is dominated by geopolitical tensions. How do I know? Look at a VIX hovering around 25. That tells you that the risk in the market is real, Nicole.

4:09Yeah, and you know, within the jobs report, I'll just go back to that for a moment. Manufacturing was a bright spot. For example, the manufacturing print, I think was the best that we had seen in a long time. That brought some optimism. Of course, healthcare rebounded after a strike, hospitality and leisure and some of the other things after some poor weather. But the manufacturing was the best that we had seen in years. So I thought that was a good piece of news. Also, the wages, well, that was the slowest growth we'd seen in five years. So not particularly great. And to your point about labor force participation rate 61.9%. That's why the unemployment rate came down to 4.3%. People aren't necessarily looking for jobs. I don't know how to interpret that. That's not always a good thing because if they're looking, they think they're getting one. Do they stop looking because they think they're not getting one or they're just happy the way they are. That's always, you know, sort of the question of what comes to labor force participation rate. Last thought. Listen, where we end this week based on where we start is not going to be corporate earnings.

5:16We'll get delta and constellation brands are the only real earnings this week. We always get delta very early. Add bastion will probably give an interesting look at travel, even though they're dealing with higher prices because of jet fuel. But we will end this week because of either an escalation or a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. And Jamie Dimons, letter to shareholders, talked about just that. So I think that this week that's starting right now has got a lot of room to travel before it gets to Friday. And this market could be dramatically different by the close on Friday, Nicole. Stay tuned. Yeah, we'll have details on the Jamie Diamond note. That'll be coming out right before the opening bell. St. Bottice is coming in that for us. So we'll have more on that. Also the manufacturing print that I said was the best since, best since 2023. So that was some good news. Kevin Hanks, great to see you. Great setup this morning. Appreciate it. Thank you.