Understanding the January Precious Metals Shakeout: Technical vs. Fundamental

Recording date: 3rd February 2026

Olive Resource Capital executives Derek Macpherson and Samuel Pelaez discussed the sharp correction in precious metals markets during their February 2nd investor update, providing context for the volatility and outlining their investment strategy moving forward.

Gold and silver experienced significant declines on January 30th, falling 9% and 26% respectively, effectively erasing approximately two weeks of gains. Despite this sharp correction, both metals remained positive for the month, with January ranking as the fifth-best performing month for gold since the December 2015 market bottom. The fund itself posted a 12% gain for January despite the month-end selloff.

The managers characterized the correction as technical rather than fundamental, noting that key systemic risk indicators remained stable throughout the volatility. High-yield credit spreads, option-adjusted bond spreads, and overnight repo rates showed no signs of financial stress, leading them to conclude that "the plumbing of the system is working fine." They attributed the selloff to a large institutional participant unwinding positions, possibly ahead of month-end requirements, rather than any deterioration in underlying market fundamentals.

Looking ahead, the managers identified upcoming fourth-quarter earnings reports from major gold producers as a significant catalyst. Beginning with Agnico Eagle on February 12th, these reports should showcase exceptional cash flow generation, with gold prices averaging $700 per ounce higher than the previous quarter. The expected announcements of dividend increases, share buybacks, and debt reduction should support equity valuations.

The fund maintains heavy precious metals exposure while gradually rotating toward industrial commodities and base metals. This strategy reflects their thesis that monetary policy-driven gains in precious metals will broaden to include industrial commodities as fiscal stimulus reaches the real economy. The managers remain confident in the commodity bull market thesis, viewing the recent correction as a tactical pause rather than a trend reversal.

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