UFC 326 Breakdowns + Picks

0:00You Meredith Orman here. And are you still not subscribed to Matt's channel? Well if you're not hit the subscribe button because he's given out three picks each and every week. Hope you have a good rest of your day. UFC 326 back in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile arena for all of Vera versus Holloway for the BMF title. Not a deep pay-per-view card however. Some good matchmaking on this one and I'll break down the main card like I always do guys provide free picks, leans, price talk, fades and more

1:04systemsportscapping.com or link.me slash system capping everything's over there. Become a client today support the system while you profit long term. Currently handicapping UFC, PGA and we will be handicapping the March Madness tournament. Another year guys another good start to the season for clients in the UFC. 12 and 4 75% average line plus money. Remember not big favorites I bet here guys average line plus money. Just under 100 units longer term. Remember smaller unit handicapper strict structured. That's how you beat the books long term. One unit half unit best bets are two to three units. Like the video if you are watching on YouTube Spotify or Apple podcast listeners please review please share with someone else that enjoy sports betting or just

2:05UFC in general. Again we have a PGA podcast every week UFC and then when the NFL season is going NFL as well. Let's do a UFC Mexico recap guys another perfect card for myself and clients three and oh a client card third perfect actually of the season. We have to be creative on this card due to the larger prices of the Mexican fighters. I did like most Mexican fighters. We hit a three fight parlay. A rare three fight parlay. The only time I do three fight parles is if I really like favorites a few different favorites and I can't predict the outcome. So that's what I had to do there we cash that two fight parlay as well it was around parlay with a distance and then the Perez

3:05by decision was the single bet that cash very easily. Glad I stayed away from Moreno. I did bet the main event over two and a half rounds in the two fight parlay with Marlon Vera and Martinez to go the distance that got there very easily both those bets. It was a nice cash turn. You know I mentioned it on the pod last week. Moreno just not himself. He's not the Moreno that we fell in love with that we knew he has one foot outside of the octagon in my opinion and it showed you know a guy that came Kavanaugh coming off a bad loss of Charles Johnson he got knocked out in that fight late in that fight actually actually was looking good before the knockout but he got caught younger fighter took this fight on short notice travel to Mexico and he looked like he was the guy from Mexico. So glad I stayed away from Moreno. I couldn't get the Kavanaugh just due to a few those concerns I just mentioned but you know hats off to him. Very excited new up-and-comer

4:07can't really say he's an up-and-comer now. New belt prospect. He's probably one or two fights away from getting a title shot. That's a flyaway for division for you right it's a weak division somewhat like the heavyweight division both divisions are kind of struggling right now. Martinez nice co-main event win over Vera his biggest win yet and it was kind of how I expect there you know Martinez by decision was the way to bet the fight over two and a half rounds fight goes the distance you got to understand you know Vera is just a guy that continues to look the same each and every fight he's durable has a chin starts slow wins round three that's how he fights lost both round one and two. Martinez is just too quick for him that's what I kind of expected and the fight played out as advertised. Zell Hubert hopefully you stayed off Zell Hubert I know you guys that probably can't resist playing with large parles you probably had Zell Hubert and you

5:08lost right Bobby Green veteran guy Zell Hubert's overvalued on the books three times now I told you guys minus 400 on Zell Hubert is crazy crazy he was a minus 900 and lost one time he's overvalued he's not the prospect that we thought he was going to be and Bobby Green knocked the guy out that's how bad that's how bad that I couldn't have predicted you know I told you guys play Bobby Green for a smaller unit if you if you want to sell Hubert's just not it not the not the guy that you know people thought it was Ed Sherrier and Rod Riga's Rod Riga's excellent debut outstanding the next big-time prospect from Mexico we're on both those fighters as well. So another good card hopefully you have another great card here the system plays it continues to just attack the way I bet a UFC in the system it just profit a very high percentage I don't change anything even if we go

6:09on a card losing couple fight card losing street which is rare but it can happen we don't change the system and how we bet White House news let's do some White House news guys we're getting closer to Alex Pereira John Jones the fight we want to see I think it's around the corner now why I think this well Pereira gave up 205 title that's one reason second reason is John Jones on at a conference that he was that said he's in talks at the for the UFC White House so pay the man whatever he wants get Turkey involved give the guy what he needs to make that fight happen we want to see that I would love I don't think Conor McGarger is going to fight this I would love to see Toporia versus Gagey the co main for the White House card that's a huge fight I love to see that as well probably O'Malley will be on there as well maybe O'Malley versus Peter John that'd be huge would love to see that US versus Russia time will tell time will tell Tom

7:14Aspenal just posted on Instagram that he is signing with Eddie hernd this is huge for you guys that don't know or in the boxing role Eddie hernd matchroom boxing promoted now he's getting to the management game and why this is crazy is because Eddie hernd and Dana White are going back and forth right now they don't like each other aspenal doing this is huge and you know Dana White's been kind of throwing shade to Aspenal and you know I think he's kind of getting him back here so interesting to see how like negotiations are going to work out when Eddie hernd is involved in it so very interesting to see how that goes fun time to be a UFC fan guys right a lot of good matchup got UFC Miami coming up as well got some fun fights on there and the fight I'm waiting for still waiting for arm on versus Islam please make this fight happen this is a fight I really want to see in 2026 I believe it should be next let's get into this card guys let's get into this card is the BMF title main event all the way minus 2 2 5ers all the way plus 1 8 5 I

8:22think the line is fairly accurate 2 to 1 favor the hallway I believe that is accurate I do believe the matchup is much better for all of it if you guys forgot there was this is a rematch from 2015 we're all over I'm sorry a hallway actually finish Oliver and round one that was due to an injury is a TKO you know a couple things to look at there but this fight needed to happen again and here we are and it's for the BMF title two guys that are just BMFs right it makes sense these two guys are fighting for now the matchup not great for Charles guys on paper right why all the way very difficult to take down and very difficult to finish how does Oliver win this fight by finish he doesn't win this fight by decision guys there's no way I would be absolutely shocked if Charles Oliver won this fight by decision now I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if he catches max hallway in a submission or some wild type of finish but I would be surprised

9:26there's a difference between absolutely shocked and surprised right I have Charles Oliver winning this fight 15% of the time maybe 20 right if they fought 10 times how do we probably win 8 out of 10 how do we could win this multiple ways decision is most likely the path he wins this fight but he could win by finish to later stoppage maybe Oliver gets tired maybe Oliver continues to push and try to find the finish and he gets caught there's multiple ways how do we could win this fight but the decision is the most likely right over seven significant strikes landed per minute guys and this isn't a guy that just fought two three four fights into UFC this is long term we know he puts up a ton of volume Charles 3.3 just very low volume I have a hard time seeing him win this fight if it goes to decision he's not going to be able to get maxed down to the ground even if he does he's not going to be able to hold them there that's going to be the only way I can see him

10:31get pulling off a submission is like some wild submission attempt like from the air like you know he jumps on his back something like crazy like that has to happen in my opinion guys only time a hallway has been submitted was back in 2012 versus Dustin Portier okay these guys were just kids then hard to see it happening here so yeah max will be the play here most likely by decision but I do like max on the money line a little more probably will be my two fight parlay piece main piece this week again just lower odds yeah Charles could win this fight it's just lower odds when you're betting on UFC every weekend you have to understand the odds of a guy winning a fight it could happen it's a fight yes but when I have it at 15 20 percent that Charles wins this fight you have to pull the trigger on max when you're handicapping the UFC and have a podcast giving

11:31your place right so max is the playing most likely going to get into my client card as a two fight parlay maybe a smaller unit on the decision as well but the finish is live in this one as well fun fight should be a good one Kyle's back well hollow minus 275 versus the Ritter plus two two five even though I do like Kyle the lines off it's not I don't have you know Kyle is a minus almost 300 favor in this fight the rare is very sneaky very difficult to fight due to his style he's awkward so you don't really know how fighters gonna approach that so I had this fight more you know kia is a minus 180 maybe 200 it's not the best matchover there I'll tell you why the Ritter wants to grapple wants to get the fight down the ground I think he's gonna struggle to get kia down to

12:32the ground I think kia is really good grapple and wrestler as well um Brandon Allen showed an out wrestled the Ritter in that fight out grappled the Ritter in that fight he said he had issues he was going through some stuff I don't know how much to hold in that I I'm gonna have to take the Brazilian here you know I don't love the price both guys very low volume right the Ritter 2.2 landed and Kyle 3.4 so it's not like these guys are gonna put out a clinic on the feet is just I have Kyle a little better in the striking department again he's gonna be able to have to handle the awkwardness from the Ritter I get it but if the Ritter can't grapple or wrestle it's just gonna it's gonna be a long fight for my opinion even though it's three rounds it could be a close fight it could be a close decision fight I probably like the over two and a half rounds more in this fight

13:33then a side but and it's more I'm saying that because the price the price is off I can't be I can't fall in love with this minus 275 price on the Brazilian just hard to back and I'm not 100% confident even though I do lean a decision for the Brazilian fighter again I can't be 100% confident on that and both guys are coming off a loss I think it's great matchmaking I think this is the fight to make both guys coming off losses it just makes sense now stylistically I don't think it's the best fight I don't think it's gonna be a fun fight to watch that's just my opinion obviously you know it could and we hope it does it's just I think the style is kind of clash right the Ritter trying to get the fight down on the ground ball keeps it standing both guys aren't pretty strikers so I can see it kind of being a slower fight more of a chess match type of fight which could be

14:36good maybe not for the cat some of the casuals though out there so I expect it to be very competitive it to go the decision and you know I'm gonna lean the Brazilian here to get it done I don't think the price is accurate though and I do think the fight is gonna play a lot closer than this market line roses junior minus 215 215 versus font plus 190 you know big name for roses it's gonna be the biggest name he's fought veteran guy and font font has proven that he could beat these guys trying to come up I don't think the matchups great for font though right font does well if the guy that just wants to strike for or three rounds roses junior doesn't want to do that roses junior wants to get this fight down to the ground as quickly as possible where he's gonna have a big grappling advantage a big wrestling advantage font as some of the worst takedown defense in the UFC guys 43 percent takedown defense so we know what the path has to be if somehow font keeps it standing

15:40font's gonna have a big striking advantage on the feet I don't think rose junior wants to play with them on the feet font as some sneaky power very good jab um he he could win this fight it's due to rose junior lack of experience and biggest name he's fought so I can't go all in here on roses junior even though I'm leaning his way I think he's gonna be too physical too strong for font uh lie younger font at the back end of his career here uh have to say rose junior gets his biggest win yet and it's gonna be a big grappling and wrestling advantage that's how he's gonna get it done that's how he should get it done I'd be surprised if he doesn't just stick to that game plan very surprised so that'll be the play here I'd probably lean a decision submissions live though too the submission is live is rose junior very good submission artists now

16:41font it really hasn't been submitted much last time was back in 2017 so yeah I would lean more the decision you know rose junior wins due to control time with his wrestling that's the way I can see this happening uh but yeah he's a rightful favorite I'm not gonna really argue too much here on price I can argue a couple points here and there uh maybe font plus 150 not plus 190 you know rose junior minus 185 you know I'm not gonna argue the lines here I I fairly agree with with the price here so um yeah rose junior don't love it probably won't make my client card but it will be the podcast play dober plus 100 versus johnson minus 120 the line tells you everything very tough fighting you're flipping a coin here I will lean michael johnson though for a few reasons one you know dober's chin not the best now michael johnson could catch you does throw hard we've seen dober knockdown multiple times throughout his career dober coming off a lower level win versus uh preppelic

17:44prior to that three straight losses yes some good names in their silver macano johnson found something you see three fight winning streak here nice win over zell huber maybe that's not playing out as well as we thought it was right to zell huber and not looking the best uh right now proven that he is a fraud uh but again I'm gonna lean michael johnson here if I do make if I do bet it's gonna be a smaller unit because it is rightfully priced it is somewhat of a coin flip here I expect to fight to be very fun though both guys just gonna go and try to knock each other's head off no graphing or wrestling in this one guys uh this one shouldn't make the judges score cards it could I would say finish probably happened 70 70% of the time these guys fought uh so uh let's let's take a look at michael johnson minus 120 um should be a very competitive fight as long as it lasts I mean competitive you guys kind of throw in shots who's gonna get caught first that's what it kind of is so

18:49you're kind of just flipping a coin uh in the most for the most part here but yeah lean is michael johnson here fun one to open up the main card and it's another fight that you know we can see ending fairly early Rodriguez minus 190 versus forever plus 160 I'm gonna take the first uh underdog here for the main car plus 160 on forever take a shot right yes power to hurt Rodriguez we've seen Rodriguez hurt a lot uh in fights I think forever is continue to get better big win over vitory last time out Rodriguez it's good too don't get me wrong I think this is a great fight uh Rodriguez could catch forever as well um before I I'm gonna I'm gonna say he catches Rodriguez in this fight and you're getting a good price you know I had this fight maybe Rodriguez more main minus 150 when I did my own market lines so there's some value at plus 160 smaller unit make my client card probably not because you know I believe this fight could go either way again I think if they're both

19:52coming out throwing big shots Rodriguez could be maybe use some as physicality trying to hold them against the cage as well to kind of slow down the fight but if they're both throwing bombs bar fight style it could go either way so that's why I say there's value here on forever plus 160 due to the fight I believe it's gonna play out that way now if it doesn't it's gonna be more more it's gonna be a boring style holding against you kind of against it's cage maybe grappling a little bit uh some wrestling I don't think either guy will have tons of success if they try to wrestle though so it should stay on the feet give me the value here with forever that will do it that will do it pretty good card not the best card we've seen of course um but we've got some good fights some good match making on here even though the big names are near I think there's some good fights we got Cody Garb right back probably have a client playing on that so if you want the client card head over to system sportscapping dot com or linked on me slash system capping get my personal plays with

20:57unit sizes detailed breakdowns what sports book the bet at it uh and more like always say bet spartan or your limits enjoy this card