About this episode
Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar’s basket weight recently increased to 43%.
00:00 September Market Recap
00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump
01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation
01:45 Economic Data Check
02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures
03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss
04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders
06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits
06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
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