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About this episode
Brian Szytel recaps a choppy, directionless market day marked by early heavy losses, a midday rebound, and a late fade amid negative sentiment tied to Middle East tensions: the Dow fell 84 points, the S&P 500 lost just over 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with tech weaker while defensives, dividend payers, and energy (helped by higher oil) held up better. He discusses conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran negotiations and expects uncertainty to persist for several days, while noting markets still seem to price in a potential off-ramp. He highlights that high-yield credit spreads remain tight at 319 bps over Treasuries, not signaling recession risk. Addressing a stagflation question, he argues current conditions differ from the 1970s despite tariff-driven one-time price effects. Economic updates were broadly positive: services and manufacturing PMIs stayed above 50, Q4 productivity was revised to 1.8%, and the Richmond Fed index was flat but beat expectations.
00:00 Market Recap Today
01:04 Middle East Tensions
02:05 Markets Still Hopeful
02:28 Credit Spreads Check
03:24 Stagflation Question
03:50 Why Not the 1970s
04:48 Tariffs and Inflation
05:35 Economic Data Rundown
06:36 Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
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