Top 3 Housing Markets that CRASHED

0:00Baseball is back, and the first pitch is on Netflix. The New York Yankees, led by seven-time all-star Aaron Judge, head to the San Francisco Bay to take on Rafael Devar's San Francisco Giants. This season kicks off with one exclusive opening night game. Watch MLB opening night, the New York Yankees versus the San Francisco Giants live on Netflix. Tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. Everyone wants to talk housing crash, so thanks to Lance Lambert from Rezzy Club. We've just gotten the update about the top markets to see a housing crash. I'm going to go ahead and give you the top three. If you want the entire list, please follow Lance Lambert on X or join Rezzy Club. Here are the facts. Number three, Cape Coral. Now again, folks, you got to remember this housing crash is from the peak of 2022. This is not the last 12 months.

1:02Again, I want to reiterate this is from the peak of 2022. Cape Coral, down 19.1 percent. Number two, Punta Gorda, Florida, down 25.6 percent, and the winner winner is, of course, Austin, Texas. Austin, Texas is down a whopping 27.8 percent. Now those numbers are definitely crash level, but let's not forget. These are not one-year crashes. These are, in this case, almost four years, and it is always interesting to say compared to what? What do I mean? Well, if we're going to cherry pick the peak in 2022, why don't we pick the bottom March of 2020? What did these three markets do since the bottom of March 2020? Why is that important? Well, that's when the crash bros came out, and they were telling you every single day

2:07that housing was going to crash. So again, remember, these are the top three markets that crashed from the peak. So if we go back to March 2020, what has Cape Coral, Florida done? After, even after a 19 percent collapse, it is still up, up, 37.8 percent since March 2020. Punta Gorda, Florida, after a 25 percent collapse is still up, 27.9 percent, and even Austin, Texas. Austin, Texas, which has lost 27.8 percent from the peak, is still up 24.6 percent. So again, folks, always remember, compared to what, don't get confused about timing. These markets obviously saw a flood of people in the early 2020s, which shot prices up

3:07to unreasonable levels only to come back down. So again, very, very interesting. Let's try to report about a record number of Americans who are tapping their 401Ks. Yes, folks, don't know if you know this, but you can get a hardship withdrawal from your 401K and in 2025, that was 6 percent. 6 percent of you with 401Ks got a hardship loan. That is up from 2024, which was 4.8 percent. If you want to be a doomer, you could say and be accurate that hardship withdrawals are up 25 percent. Yes, folks, when you go from 4.8 to 6 percent, that is a 25 percent increase. 25 percent sounds a lot scarier than 6 percent. Just so you know, again, compared to what was it in 2019, it was 2 percent.

4:09So even pre-pandemic, there were still 2 percent of us who were taking hardship withdrawals. Today, again, remember, it is at 6 percent, which was interesting. Trueflation, once again updating the data in real time, pointing at some areas of deflation. According to trueflation, we are starting to see deflation in clothing and even some food items. CPI is estimated in real time to be 0.93 percent. The big number of the day, of course, is ADP, private payrolls. Again, we will get another jobs number on Friday. On Friday, I'm going to be looking at was January revised lower. Remember, it came in at like 150 or 120,000, something dramatically above expectations. But that's for Friday. Today, ADP report last month was 22,000. This month, it was expected to be 50,000, so a solid double. It came in at 63,000.

5:09So again, more than doubled, almost triple from 22,000 last month to 63,000 this month. Let's congratulate a couple of people for joining school, Ulysses and Charles. Thanks for joining school. Make sure you introduce yourself, find your accountability groups. We had another accountability group start last night, AI in real estate, shout out, Trisha for making that happen. She is moving that to Monday. It is now moving to Monday, so it doesn't interfere with Deon's talk. Deon goes live on Tuesdays. So we thought it would be best if we moved the AI and real estate from Tuesday to Monday. So shout out, Trisha, for making that happen. Some of you asked about Blackstone, the largest owner of private credit, Blackstone has seen a lot of market noise, according to Jonathan Gray. And record redemptions, record redemptions from the largest private credit fund.

6:14Investors pulled 8% last quarter. That is a significant number. That's almost 10%. So again, one out of every $12 or so was removed from that private credit fund. We are hearing lots of noise about private credit. We've seen some fraud already in private credit. It will be interesting to see what happens when these are, quote, marked to market, which I do think is coming. New York Fed published a report that certainly won't make President Trump happy. According to Fed President Williams, tariffs are overwhelmingly a burden for US businesses and consumers. I think it is interesting because again, if you look through inflation, we are currently seeing inflation increase, but it is in services, not in stuff. What is often referred to as goods, goods inflation. We are seeing inflation be stubborn, be sticky, in services, not in goods.

7:17Swiss sneaker maker on reported record sales in 2025. But we're seeing this more and more. People are being offering weak guidance. I've seen multiple retailers talk about 2026 and try to lower expectations. Obviously, when you do that, your stock takes a hit because stocks are priced on future earnings. So I think I do see a trend in the earnings this year, especially with retailers. I should say this quarter with retailers, and that is many of them are trying to talk down expectations. Crowdstrike, beat top line and bottom line. But a lot of people are writing is AI, a threat to their business. I honestly don't know what Crowdstrike does. But I did see a lot of articles saying is Crowdstrike's business model threatened by AI. So again, if you're out there, be careful. Auto zone matched revenue, but did beat on earnings. They added 31 mega hubs in the last 12 months.

8:19Talk about a steady, eddy business auto parts, continuing going. Cash Cari, we got some Fed speak, cash Cari, before Iran. So before Iran, inflation was gently headed in the right direction. It is too soon to draw conclusions about spillover effects from Iran. Again, this is going to be interesting. We've obviously seen oil shoot higher. We've talked about the straighter hermouce. We're talking about the US now ensuring transit and protecting it with naval ships. This is certainly not over yet, lots to figure out. Fed President Schmidt said the Fed is positioned well, and the economy is performing well. Janet Yellen, not the one to be outdone, said that the Iran situation puts the Fed even on further hold. There is a lot of talk, a lot of chatter about the Fed potentially being on hold all year. Again, that would be interesting because I am still calling for four rate cuts, but

9:25it is really going to depend on how long this goes on with Iran and what if anything happens with oil going to 100 or even as some people call it 150, that would certainly be inflationary. Fed President Gulzby says, I am one of the most optimistic people about rate cuts this year. You can clearly see that Gulzby is with Fed President Iran and others looking for rate cuts in 2026. Fed President of Boston says the independence of the Fed is what helps keep the US economy the strongest it can be. And finally, don't know if you saw this, but it looks like open door. Open door is taken on what home builders do, and that is by offering discount mortgages. Yes, folks, apparently open door is now offering 4.99 percent mortgage product, which is very interesting. This is now a product you can use to buy existing homes via open door.

10:25It will be interesting to see if this is just a pilot product, if this is something they use maybe in their slowest markets, but I did read an announcement that open door is now offering 4.99 percent mortgages. Pretty cool. All right, folks, that's the daily financial news. Remember, steadily offers landlord insurance. I can't say enough about them. They saved a living in an I-20 grand last year, which is greatly appreciated. It's almost 2 grand a month. Put that towards my food budget or maybe my dog toys or whatever. What do you think, Sonny? Sonny's down there. Anyways, also don't forget to join school. We are over 600 members going the same direction, 20 bucks a month, 67 pennies a day. You cannot find a better group of people looking to build well, helping each other, answering questions, active forum community. You will love it there. Join school. I'll see you in there. Take care. Later.