Today’s Fed Interest Rate Decision

0:00Wednesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez show. One news talk said KOH, it's a pleasure to be with you. But not a pleasure to have to deliver the news that I have to deliver today. My goodness, what a tough day we had today. I'm so glad we're together to be able to share with you what everything is transpired and why it did what it did and so on and so forth. Folks, I'm going to be real honest with you. We've got an inflationary problem that no one's really starting to recognize. It is really an issue that we're starting to see more and more of. And before you know it, this nasty I word that the Fed does not like. No one likes is going to be right in front of our face. And why do I say that? Because we had a rough day to day and the rough day to day started early in the morning when we basically saw ourselves faced with a hotter than expected PPI report, the measure of inflation on the wholesale side of things. That normally the street doesn't pay a lot of attention to that type of report, right? They pay more attention to the CPI number. But when you start getting a PPI number, again, the measure of inflation on the wholesale

1:02side, everyone gets a little concerned. Now, why is that pretty simple? It starts with the businesses that will then determine what the prices are that you and I are going to pay for our goods. And if businesses are paying a higher price on the wholesale side to create their product, then guess what? You think they're going to absorb that cost? Absolutely not. What they're going to do is they're going to pass that cost onto us. So the PPI report that we received a 530 this morning that the market didn't really get all that concerned with until Chairman Powell had a few comments to mention about inflation. That report. It was an eye opening experience. It was much, much hotter than expected. And again, when we start to see this, we go, okay, maybe inflation is not a major issue at this point, but it's lurking around the corner. And that folks is going to bring me into what we're going to be discussing today, which is the Fed's interest rate decision. And again, I'll tell you right up front, nobody had any inclination whatsoever

2:05that the Fed was going to raise rates, cut rates, do anything. It was all about what they see going on now and more importantly over the next few months, maybe the next year, which they don't have any clue better than anybody else. And it was Chairman Powell's comments that sparked a major market sell off today. So it started with PPI, then the Chairman just made the situation worse. And now we're faced with an inflationary concern. That, of course, with the oil situation. And I'll mention right up front, I said this on my stock updates this morning. Remember this PPI report with that we received this morning that was so much hotter than expected. This did not accompany any data from the month of March. This was February's data. So if these oil prices hold steady for the rest of this month, come April, when we get the March's PPI data and CPI data, that's really when a problem could begin to exist. If these oil prices remain at elevated levels, which, of course, in anybody's guess whether that's going to happen or not, we sure as heck, hope it doesn't.

3:08So today, what I'm going to be really focusing on is again, I want to go into this PPI report. I want to explain what what it is, right? So you have a good understanding how this whole equation works for wholesale inflation. Then we're going to spend the rest of the show talking about the Fed interest rate decision today. Again, they left rates unchanged. There was not one prediction on Wall Street indicate they're going to do anything else. But one thing that changed is you're going to find out is they're now talking about interest rate increases. You see, let me refresh your memory. We go back to the beginning of this year. And I sat right here behind this microphone and I said, I am confident one to two interest rate cuts this year. Well, of course, nobody predicted that we're going to be a war. And now the chairman is talking, he made some comments that I'll share with you that potentially we could be seeing an interest rate increase, increase by the end of this year. Now let's put a little water on this fire. However, chairman Powell's not going to be there. It's going to be Kevin Worsh if he gets confirmed by the Senate.

4:10Kevin Worsh is Trump's man. Do you have any inclination whatsoever that a handpicked fed a reserve chairman, i.e. Kevin Worsh would even think, even think about raising interest rates under the Trump administration. I think you and I both know the answer to that one is absolutely not. So that was chairman Powell's comments. Now, I do want to mention while I'm speaking to that, the press actually, let me back up the press did not ask this. The chairman volunteered a question and an answer. He says, I know you guys are going to be asking me. So let me just tell you, if Kevin Worsh is not confirmed, by the Senate, right? He's been chosen by the president, but if he's not confirmed by the Senate, which he's having some problems, there's a few democratic senators that are trying to do everything they can not to confirm him. But if he is not confirmed, Jerome Powell today said, I will stay on as the interim federal reserve chairman. And he said, you know, it's happened in the past.

5:11And he goes, matter of fact, when I came in and became chairman of the Federal Reserve, you know, his predecessor was also, or he was not confirmed. And so he kind of, you know, he came in as a, as an interim. So I didn't realize, remember, that was a question I had a few weeks ago. I said, what happens if Worsh is not confirmed? Who's going to, are we going to have a vacant seat? Well, the answer is no. Chairman Powell would stay on. Now, another question that he was basically asked and answered himself was, he says, I know a lot of you want to know this. Well, I remain on the board of governors, meaning a voting member of the federal open market committee. And he says, I have not made a decision on that. I will wait till we get a little bit closer and then make a decision. Now, that's going to be an interesting one. If he decides to stick around, it's legally he can, right? You, you basically bumped down from chairman of the Federal Reserve down to a voting member or board of governors and or you're, you're a voting member when you're on the board.

6:13So that was another real interesting take. So we had a lot of things thrown at us today. The good news that I can take out of today was oil prices were relatively subdued. In fact, we lost 63 cents on oil, 95, 42, a barrel. That's not bad, but it's still elevated. We're up a couple bucks early this morning on oil. The things kind of calmed down a bit. Once, once we had a worry about the Federal Reserve and hotter than expected inflationary report and so on and so forth. So, you know, again, a tough day today. I'm just going to tell you what these numbers were or were or are. How we finished up and then we'll begin to start dissecting exactly what happened today. So we finished down 768 points on the Dow. That was a 1.63% loss to close a 46,000 to 25 NASDAQ 327 point decline 1.46% closed at 22,152 S&P down 91 points 1.36%

7:13closing at 6,624 and the Russell 2000. The small caps lower by 41 points 1.64% to close at 2,478. So it was right across the board. The fix index, the volatility index now back at 25, a little above 25. Right. When you're up in this range, that tells you investors are very, very nervous about getting real mathematical with the actual fix number means. But that just shows you that investors are very nervous at this particular point, which they have a good reason to be right. We're all nervous about this. We have this nasty war going on that we don't seem to be getting anywhere at this point. You know, Trump says we can end this thing in matter of days. We've got oil prices that are fluctuating all over the place. And now we have hot inflation that we need to deal with. So before I go to break, let me squeeze in what this PPI report told us this morning, because this is again, where everything kind of started to get a little bit, a little bit sideways with us after this report came out again, it came out at 530 this morning. So once the opening bell rang, we had some modest losses February PPI month over

8:17month, up seven tenths of a percent. I noticed the emphasis of my voice. You maybe got, I don't know what that means. Well, let me just put it in perspective. From January to February, wholesale inflation month over month was only up three tenths of a percent. So that was more than double in one month. And again, I'm going to keep emphasizing this has nothing to do with a recent uptick and oil prices. So expectation was three tenths of a percent came in up seven tenths of a percent. That of course fueled the inflation concerns. Since again, oil is not really included in this one. Now we go to the, let's go to the core number, right? So that's where we strip out food and energy. Core PPI up one half of a percent month over month. Again, much larger than anticipation. If we look at the year over year number, go back to the headline. The first one I mentioned that was up seven tenths month over month, year over year up three point four percent. Core stripping out food and energy, even higher up three point nine percent.

9:19So you see about my comments here a moment ago. Folks, this is a hot, hot wholesale level. And how these numbers will not transition into a hotter than expected CPI report at higher oil prices when they're factored in. This could be a major, major headwind for the markets, unfortunately. So there's the data. Now when we come back, I want to share with you some more information about it. I want to break down. I haven't done this in a while. I want to share with you really what PPI is all about. So all I tell you is it's the wholesale level of inflation. Let me go a little bit deeper with you. And then as the show progresses, we'll get into, of course, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision review what the statement was. And then some of the major comments that came out at Sherr Powell at the news conference. Let's turn it over to Kristen Snow. She's in the right now, traffic center. Kristen, welcome back to the John Sanchez show on new stock seven ADK, which happy Wednesday to all of you fit interest rate day. Oh boy, it wasn't an interest rate day today. Well, as I said earlier, it was a, it was a bit of a tough go today. We had hotter than expected PPI report. We had a Federal Reserve, of course,

10:20a chairman that said, you know, little concerned about inflation kind of had it all thrown at us. Again, the only bright spot was oil prices were relatively calm as I indicated earlier. Once again, we lost 768 on the Dow 1.63% NASDAQ down 327, one and a half percent loss or 1.46. I shouldn't round up and the S&P down at 91 point to 1.36%. All right, before I get to what the Fed actually had to say, I want to, I want to back up to the other issue because again, it was very much mentioned in the the chairman's comments at his press conference today, which again, always follows at 11.30 in regards to concern about inflation, right? And so we, we got a taste of this. And as if you just joined us as I said, the beginning of the show, we got an inflation problem and no one wants to admit it. Trump administration has wanted to admit it. Many institutional investors don't want to admit it, but it's coming. It is coming and it's indicative again by this PPI report. So once again, I want to just kind of explain to you this report.

11:22So main thing to understand about P is again, it's on the wholesale side of things. And as I said at the beginning of the show, this is my concern because once again, this number came in with a gain of seven tenths of a percent month over month. So from January to February of seven tenths of a percent, Wall Street was only looking for three tenths of a percent. So more than double that was the month over month, year over year, we're up 3.4% but if we strip out food and energy, it was even a hotter number up one and a half percent month over month, but up 3.9% year over year. Now, remember, as I'll share with you when I go through the Fed's minutes of, or not the minutes, but the release of the interest rate decision today, which again, they left interest rates unchanged. Remember, the Fed has a mandate, right? They want full employment and they want inflation at 2%. Now, this is not the report that they look at to say, how far are we away from hitting 2%? That's the PCE number, which again, historically, or not historically, but recently, I should say is a better word, has been nowhere near 2%.

12:22We're over the 3% mark. And now this number is going to, I think, have a negative impact meeting. It's going to increase that PCE number when we get that in a few weeks. But you have to start with the wholesale side. So what is this crazy report that affected the market today? So the Bureau of Labor Statistics, same organization, government organization that creates the non-farm payroll numbers that I cover each and every month. What they do is they, in the second week of the month, they do a big survey. The survey is based upon approximately 100,000 monthly price quotes reported voluntarily online by more than 25,000 producer establishments. So it's a big survey, right? It covers again, 100,000 different products and the inputs that go into those. And again, 25,000 businesses. So pretty representative. And this is why I said, can't really have unless something dramatically changes. You can't really have a hot CPI or PPI number and then expect a cool CPI,

13:27the measure of inflation on the retail side, what you and I pay for things. So this is like the precursor, it's like the foundation to the house. So again, this report was, was much worse than when everybody had anticipated. And as I'll share with you later in the program, Chairman Powell did make some concerns about it and comments about it. But the bottom line is inflation is coming and especially once again, if these oil prices remain where they are, let's just say really anything above, I'm going to say 75 to high $70 barrel mark anything above that. That's going to have a big impact. It's going to have a big impact on the on the CPI side of things because we remember CPI, roughly 4 to 6% of its calculation are energy prices. Again, I'm speculating I'm going out. We still have a couple of months, a couple of weeks before this month is over. God willing, these these oil prices come down, but we're not really seeing much of that at all at this particular time. We saw Brent today, skyrocket. We saw West Texas skyrocket. And once again, just overall, we were down 63 cents is where we finished at 95 42,

14:31but we were up over 100. We keep pushing up. You hear us, let's go back to some technical charting that we do in the stock market. We have what's called support and resistance. If you look at a chart, support is where the price levels should hold. It's kind of the dip in the chart. And then you have resistance, which is the upper end of the chart, right? We keep hitting this resistance on oil at about $100 a barrel. Now, I don't know what's going on. I don't understand. I'm not a commodity trader, but I'll tell you what typically will happen. I've given you guys this, this analogy many times over the years. When it comes to looking at a stock and it keeps hitting that resistance level, keeps hitting it and the analogy I always like to give is a super ball, right? If you go into a room, you got a concrete floor and a concrete wall. And you have to throw that super ball down and it hits the wall. What maybe two or three times depends on how good of a super ball it is and how hard you threw it. And then eventually, you know, it starts to peter out. Well, eventually, if you do it enough times and I know I'm being kind of facetious here, let's say it's not a concrete ceiling. Let's say it's a paper ceiling.

15:33Eventually, you hit it enough times, it's going to break through. And that's what I'm fearful of on the oil side of things. If we break above 100 and we hold it, see, that's what the stock market's been able to hold up. So nicely, these last, you know, really last couple of weeks since the war broke out, because we're not holding for any sustainable period of time, oil above 100. If we start closing above 100 on a regular basis, that's when we're going to start to have problems in the stock market. I see it monitor, you know, trade it all day long. And this is exactly where it is. You hit that 100 mark, you know, watch the futures tonight. I give you an idea. So again, we closed it 9542. Let me give you a fresh quote on the, on the future side of things. Uh, let's see. Right now, down futures are down 111 NASDAQs are down about 52. All right. Now again, I don't pay any attention to it because it's, they just opened at three o'clock. We got a long ways to go before tomorrow. But watch oil. If you see oil hit above $100 overnight, you'll see those futures begin to accelerate on the downside.

16:37That's the catalyst. That's the key to watching this market right now, trying to figure out what you want to do in your portfolio. Again, I want to emphasize one more time. If we close above $100 for one, maybe one day, we're okay. Couple days, we're going to get concerned. But if it's on a, you know, two to three day plus time range, it's going to be problems because now you've got two negatives that are going against this. You have this hotter than expected PPI report that the traders are not going to forget about. They know that if these oil prices do break the 100 mark and they hold here, you know, by the time the month of March is open or over, that's going to have an impact on CPI and PPI for the month of March. So they're looking at that. And then as you're going to find out later in the program, the fed's really in no hurry to cut interest rates. It's a matter of fact, we learned today from the chairman. As I, again, as I'll share with you, they're thinking about maybe raising interest rates. So but again, we've got Kevin Morris coming in. So don't put a tremendous amount of credence into that. I just want to share that with you with what the chairman had to say today. Okay, we got a lot to cover.

17:38I'm going to come back and I'm going to share with you with the Fed had to say the interest rate to meeting today. Why they'd left the interest rates unchanged. Then we'll get into some chair Powell comments. Senator Jack Sabin. He's got news traffic on whether he'll eject come back to the John Sanchez show in News talk 780 KOH again. A tough day on the street today finished down 768 on the Dow 1.63%. Nasdaq last 327 SLP down 91. Right. It all started as I said with the PPI report, right? The measure of inflation on the wholesale side of seven tenths of a percent from January to February. Wall Street's expectation was three tenths of a percent year over year up 3.4% struck out food and energy up a half a percent month over month gaining 3.9% year over year. And I did look up. I was close the PCE the Fed's favorite measure of inflation is for January is at 3.1%. And again, they month that down to 2%. So we've got an inflationary problem. That's brewing and that's again, not even accounting for potential higher oil prices. If these prices hold once again, it was quite today in the oil front. 63% lost to 95.42 a barrel.

18:40Tough day on gold though, $112.90 lost 484460 was our was our level there. And I want to throw a little cautionary note for those of you, you know, that trade gold, which you never should get to long-term investment. But if you're wondering why your gold prices are coming down, it's this inflation, right? No one wants to hold gold, which is a non-dividend producing investment, right? It doesn't it's not something it's like holding a bond when inflation is hot. You don't want to do that. And as you'll find out here in a second, bond prices tank today. So you're going to, if you own gold and you're owning a long term, don't worry about it. But if you're looking at it short term, be prepared. You could see some more downside risk here. Again, this was a pretty severe loss on it today and we're seeing the same with all the precious metals, silver, et cetera. Now let's go to the bond market. Bonds do not like high inflation. So what we saw happened, we saw people bail out of the bonds. The institutions went sideways on them, went negative. And therefore we had a six basis point increase on the tenure treasury to a yo-close of 4.26%.

19:41So you see how important oil, how important inflation is to the stock market, to the precious metals, to bond prices, to everything. And it has an impact in your life, has an impact on your portfolio values. And it also has an impact, of course, what's going on in life, right? We know things don't get any cheaper. And I was thinking during the break, I was thinking to myself, no, if you're one of these 25,000 businesses that are surveyed by the BLS, right? To find out what these 100,000 products, what you're pricing is that it go up, did it go down that type of thing for them to put the components of the PPI report together, when do prices ever go down? You think about that. Think of all the things you consume in your life. What things really go down? Very little, right? Electronics are really one of the most important things that not one of most important, but one of the things in our lives that do go down. But if we look at everything else, yeah, you see gas prices fluctuate, but groceries, clothing, things that you need to live each and every day, electricity, car insurance, homeowners insurance, nothing's going down.

20:43It's kind of expensive. It's continuing to be. And that's why we keep talking about how so many of you are stretched, right? It's not your own fault, right? Your wages are not catching up with the higher cost of living anymore. So let's find out what Chairman Powell had to say today. First of all, I'm going to start off by reading to you the very short Fed interest rate decision that keep in mind. As I'll share with you in a few moments, today was what's called the SEP. This is where I like to joke that you get all the Fed members that have a little piece of paper and they get to write where they think rates are going to go and where they anticipate cuts to be and they put it in a big black cap. Now I'm joking when I say that. But this is where they get to make their own individual projections again, where they think rates are going to go cuts that type of thing. And you know, the street does pay attention to it. But it's each individual person's opinion. So I'll cover that in just a moment. First, let's go to the Fed press release today, available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low and the unemployment rate has been a little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The committee as he seeks. Here's the cut and paste.

21:44The committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. Certainly about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East and the US economy are uncertain. The committee is attenitive to the risk of both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the committee decided to maintain the target range of the Fed funds between three and a half to three and three quarters. In other words, I love things unchanged. Considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the Fed funds rate, the committee will carefully assess in coming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risk. Have we hear that a million times? Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment. And returning inflation to its 2% objective. Not doing too good of a job of that. And assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate, if risks emerge that could impose or excuse me, that could impede the attainment of the committee's goals. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information,

22:47including readings on labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, and of course, financial and international developments. Now, we had one descent today. Everybody voted in favor of leaving interest rates unchanged. But dear friend, Steven, I my ran, who preferred lower rates. He was the one to center once cut rates by quarter percent every single meeting. He's one of the new Trump guys that joined the FOMC not too long ago last year, but every single meeting he votes for a quarter percent cut. And when the committee, when we got our cut a few weeks ago or a few months ago, I think he wanted a half a percent. So he's never happy. But again, it could be a taste of if Trump gets more of his people appointed to the Fed, this could be something that we see more and more of. Okay. So nothing earth shattering. Now, let's get into some of the comments that that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had to say at the press conference at this conference. He said there's really, really he didn't say much of anything. I want to give you my takeaway first. Let me do this before I get into the details.

23:48I felt like he's a man that is bruised and battered because of what Trump has done to him, his criticism. He did, as I said, at the, at the first segment of the show, he did say, you know, again, he'll stay on his interim chairman. If Kevin Worsh is not approved by the time his term is up in mid-May, he also said that he made some comments. And I'm trying to, I'm trying to remember exactly, you know, precisely what he said, but basically he said, look at, I'm not going anywhere until these you know, essentially this, this witch hunt by Trump against him and the lawsuits and everything else against the Fed for coming in over budget on the renovations of the Federal Reserve headquarters, et cetera. He basically said, I'm not going anywhere until that is resolved. Now, I didn't see any of the new services make anything of that, but I've been thinking about that since the chairman's comments. And it goes back to what I was saying earlier from the standpoint that he said, look, I haven't made my decision yet, whether I'm going to remain on the board, after my, my term is chairman is up, if I'm going to remain on the board.

24:50And my takeaway was, okay, what if this thing is not resolved? I mean, it's not looking good for the Trump administration in regards to chairman Powell, right? That we've had some court rulings that basically said, this thing is a witch hunt. Not going anywhere, that type of thing, but nothing, nothing formalized yet to my knowledge. So let's say this thing is not resolved, right? By the time his term is up in mid-May, would Jerome Powell, stick around and stay on the board, stay a voting member, just because again, he wants to not leave until that is, that issue is resolved. I think the answer is yes, because I think the man back, back to my, my takeaway watching him today, I think the man is battered and bruised. I think the man feels very unappreciated. I think the man is tired of criticism, right? Again, folks, this is, I always used to say that the chairman, chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America, is the most powerful human being in the world.

25:53That was before President Trump came in. Trump by far now is the most powerful man in the entire world. Powell's number two. So I think he's got a lot to prove, right? These guys have egos. Let's not, that's not sugar coated. They've got egos and they don't want to go out and they have their 10 year, well, basically tarnished. And that's, that's the way I think if he left today, he would feel he made numerous comments during his press conference that essentially he and the Fed, he'll never say just himself. It's always the team, very frustrated that they can't get inflation down, right? Down to that 2%. And I think that's another thing that he's, he said, you know, we're puzzled. We were, we're, you know, we're not real sure why this has happened. But, you know, we've had a number of events that have happened. We had COVID. We had this. We had that inflation just, you know, we can't get it down to this 2% mark. And boy, did the market dip. Matter of fact, I want to share with you, I, you know, the Dow's my favorite, uh, Indici. And when the chairman started his press conference, right? I mean, he is so good about starting on time, right at 1130.

26:53The Dow Jones industrial average was down 450 points by the time he finished. And I didn't, I don't recall exactly what time was probably around 1215 or so, maybe 1230. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 653 points. So we lost 200 points based upon the comments of the chairman at this press conference. All right, I'll share more comments from the chairman today. When we come back, let's wrap it up with Kristen Snow right now. Traffic center. Hello, Kristen to the John Sanchez show on News talk. So KOH, all right, digesting what chairman Powell had to say at the press conference today. Once again, the Fed did leave interest rates and change as anticipated. But some of the big takeaways, once again, is there in no hurry to start cutting rates by any stretch of the imagination. Matter of fact, some are starting to say maybe an interest rate increase is going to be the next move, not a decrease. But I want to caution everybody before you freak out on this, because again, everyone was so looking forward to this quarter percent cut, which is, as I've said over and over again, it doesn't really mean anything. The bond traders, they can move rates up or down. That's what's going to impact your life, right? Your mortgages and auto loans and credit cards and so on. So for the just remember, with the Fed, when they talk about raising or lowering interest rates,

27:55that's the rates that banks charge one another, right? It's supposed to have a lingering effect onto the other liabilities I just mentioned. It doesn't always happen that way. Matter of fact, is, you know, as poor Dwight, and we'll get his opinion on this tomorrow. What what typically happens is when we've seen a Fed interest rate increase, mortgage rates have gone the other direction, mortgage rates have gone up. Take that with a grain of salt. Going back to a couple of things that the chairman had to say that I thought were real interesting. Once again, the vote was 11 to 1 to hold the rate steady. So nothing, you know, big there, but I want to go into the dot plot, right? This is where again, the individual members, 12 of the 19 members voted today, or I shouldn't say voted, they penciled in, right? There are little piece of papers, I call it the pencil in at least one cut this year. Now, that was the same number they did in December. So everything that's happened, he's harder than expected reports. Don't seem to have much impact on them. Now, why is that? Remember, folks, the Fed is slow and steady, right? That's the way they operate. They don't get excited on one good or bad report. They want to see a trend developing.

28:57So that does not surprise me. So we got 12 of the 19 individual opinions that looking at one cut this year, and again, that was the same as December. However, several officials did pencil in fewer reductions. Now, in fact, one participant, you don't know who it is. They penciled in a rate hike for next year. Now, Paul waved out those projections when he said his usual disclaimer to take them with a grain of salt was true and even more than usual. So in other words, he said, don't pay a lot of attention to it. So why they do this? I don't know, but it's fun to look at it. A couple of other quotes that came out that I thought would be of interest to you. He, he said in his press conference that the question of quote, looking through any supply shocks will be when to approach not lightly injecting a significant dose of caution to the standard advice. So what does he mean looking through? He, he made some comments, matter of fact, quite a few comments, how tariffs are having an inflationary negative impact, right? And I said to myself, the smart Alex side of myself, I said,

29:58weren't you the one that told us when Trump announced tariffs last April on liberation day? Didn't you tell us in all your meetings going forward that tariff inflation is transitory? It doesn't last. Well, here we are now. We've had five years, five years of inflation being above the feds, two percent mandate. So you have to take it with a grain of salt with the Federal Reserve. In many cases, you know, I think they're the smartest men and women in the world. And sometimes in other times, I realize they're just men and women. They put on their pants the same way you and I do each and every day. And they're, they're just, as they always say, they're data dependent. They're just kind of taking things with a grain of salt, looking at this, looking at that and then slowly making a decision. But never in history with rising oil prices, I'll give you this little tidbit. Never in history has the Fed ever cut interest rates when energy prices or more importantly, when inflation is rising, right? The Fed wants to cut interest rates when inflation is coming down. We're going the opposite direction.

31:00I love this comment by a fellow by name of William English. I've never heard of him. He's a former senior Fed economist. He said, what a terrible situation they find themselves in, meaning the Fed having kind of weathered this inflationary shock this year to have another one this year. It seems a little bit cruel. So, you know, we know that was again, I breeze on one to share that comment with you. That was my take when you can kind of sense that in Chairman Powell's comments. It's like, this was the last thing I needed in the last few months of my tenure to be dealing with oil shock and higher inflation, et cetera. So, you know, he wants to go out on top, but get oil markets, et cetera. Are going to be the ones that really finally determine that. So, interesting situation we find ourselves in tomorrow's a brand new day. No, tell them what the street will bring us, but we'll be ready for it. And I'll share it with you tomorrow on the show. God bless. Have a great afternoon on the John Sanchez show. You have been listening. Take care. John Sanchez is a registered investment advisor and the opinions expressed by Sanchez gone capital management LLC on the show where their own and do not reflect the opinions of news talks 780 or its parent company, cumulus media, all statements and opinions expressed

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