This Is A Generational Bitcoin Stacking Opportunity

emergency video, Bitcoin's crashing, everybody's panicking. It probably dropped from 64K to 63K

in a time since I hit the record button about eight seconds ago. My hands are literally bleeding

from catching so many falling knives. Obviously, if you didn't already, this is the largest

absolute dollar value drop in Bitcoin's history, closing in on 50% off the all-time high from

last fall, 126,000. I did a video the other day about conviction, the importance of conviction,

go watch that, I'll put it up here. Because if you buy an asset, you have to have conviction and

otherwise, you're going to panic sell at the worst possible time and never hold on long enough

for it to matter. But this video is not about the vibes of conviction, it's about the math of

conviction. How you need to make sure you're staying grounded in the math and the logic,

because in bear markets and drawdowns like this, your psychology, your vulnerable human psychology

is working against you. So we're going to look at why you need to not listen to the little

lizard version of your brain that's run by your emotions. You need to listen to the math and the

logic. I want to show you something that I stumbled across recently. This is from Wealthfront,

but we're going to do a little experiment. I don't want you to participate. The guy who wrote this,

said he did this live in a seminar with people or whatever, and he asked them, if I could give you

a choice, what would you prefer as an investor over the next 10 years? I'll show you the performance

of an asset and you tell me which one, if you're blossoming today and you're going to invest in it

periodically over the next 10 years, which performance would you prefer to play out over the next 10

years? So this is chart A. Obviously, goes up in a straight line, and obviously you're just going

to be feeling like a genius. Every year you look at it to go by more, it just keeps going up.

Chart B is a stair step up pattern with some volatility of going down, but obviously,

it's generally trending up. And chart C is a long, slow, boring, grind, slightly downward,

mostly sideways, slightly down over a long period of time. And then at the end, obviously,

it spikes up. Now you can tell me for you personally, which one you would prefer to see if you were

an ongoing investor in a particular asset over the next 10 years. Spoiler alert, the guy in the

article, he said, most people, obviously in the crowd, they said chart A, they'd want to see the

nice linear upward line that feels so good, makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside like your

genius for what you bought. Oh, that's never even going down. Obviously, this is impossible.

Nothing goes up like this, but this is what humans want. This is what our psychology wants. This

is what makes us feel smart, emotionally secure, all the good, warm and fuzzy that you want to feel when

you buy something real quick, if you're new here, you're watching the sat stacker show, a Bitcoin

show for people who think deeper about money. I'm your host, my name is John AKA the sat stacker,

no goofy Bitcoin puns today, since it's like a funeral out there. Let me just get back to the math.

If you haven't figured out the punchline already yet, it's obviously chart C that is actually the

best for your actual returns by the end of that 10 year period. And you do the breakdown of the

math. If you invest in a steadily rising market, what happens is you feel smart and it never

hurts and it feels great the whole time, but each year as you dollar cost average and you buy

and more, you're buying smaller and smaller number of shares each time because its price keeps going

up. And here's the example you do with the math, a table of $1,000 a year at the beginning of the

year, and each other price rising and you getting a diminishing number of shares with your $1,000 each

year. So in this example, the numbers are arbitrary, but it's obviously proving a point. Total shares

you end up with $46.5 and it's worth $23,000 at the end of 10 years because obviously assuming

and growth rate and all this stuff, but if you keep a constant across three examples, you'll see

the difference table two and increasing the volatile market, you investing a little bit at different

rates along the way and you end up with slightly more shares and a slightly larger portfolio at the

very end, but it's almost negligible. It's very similar. This example shows 48 shares of this

example ETF that he's using and $24,000. So a little bit above what the other one was, but

if you invest in what he's calling a declining market, look at what happens if you invest the same

amount every year for 10 years and the share price of what you're buying is declining. Number of

shares that you get to acquire keeps going up. You end up with around three times more shares

than you ended up with in the previous example and you end up with a portfolio that's almost three

times higher as a result at the very end of the period. Shockingly, this third scenario leads to

the greatest value upon liquidation. You mean set the end of the 10 years by far because in effect,

you're buying the ETF at a steep discount. It doesn't matter that the ETF declined during your

investment period. All that matters is what it's worth when you're ready to liquidate your account.

He's just using that 10 years as an example period that he set at the beginning. The point in our

example is interim volatility doesn't matter and it can work to investors advantage because it

gives them opportunities to buy at a relative discount. You should ignore the behavior of the market

if you intend to invest steadily and don't plan on touching the majority of your account for a

number of years. Markets generally rise over time so if your investment horizon is fairly long at

least three to five years, then what happens in between doesn't matter. So obviously the key point

is if you study something deeply and you understand the fundamentals of the asset and you have conviction,

then you can zoom out and see when the market is temporarily mispricing that asset and you can

understand that that is an opportunity, not a risk. First example that comes to my mind talking about

this is Michael Burry when he's shorting the housing market and he'd done the research and he knew

the fundamentals showed like this is unsustainable and this can't last forever, but he was willing to

stake everything on that bet for I think it was a years before it actually came to fruition. Even though

everyone all in the way is telling him he's wrong, he's losing money, holding onto his shorts,

he's bleeding investors who don't believe in what he's doing, he's crazy, but he had studied it

deeply and understood the fundamentals and had the conviction and he held on and he finally reaped

through a reward when what he knew was true about the market finally was reflected in the prices.

Obviously you could easily poke holes in my example and say well Burry's actually a bitcoin

detractor now says negative things about it, but I would argue he just hasn't studied it and

doesn't understand it. If he actually took the time to study bitcoin as much as he studied the

housing market back before 08, then he would definitely change his mind, but here's the thing. I have

studied bitcoin about the same amount that he studied the housing market before 08. So my conviction

is similar. It doesn't bother me when there's a temporary fluctuation in an exchange rate

against some dirty, debasing fiat currency because I understand the fundamentals of bitcoin,

what gives it value? Why it will continue to accrue more value in the future over the long term

and just the fundamental thesis that bitcoin is the hardest money that's ever existed. It's the

best form of money that we have and over time harder money wins. It sucks value out of weaker

monies and weaker stores of value as more and more people choose to store their value in it because

they come to the realization that it's better. The thesis is that simple. I got over 100 videos on

the channel that'll go in much deeper and depth on it, but it is that simple. Bitcoin is the best

form of money. The better form of money will win over time. Bitcoin is more like gunpowder adoption.

Did the French army have a choice whether they should adopt gunpowder or not? Did they decide? No,

you know what? We like to keep it real with sticks and stones and swords and we're not going to

use gunpowder. Any army that decided to do this didn't matter because then another army with

gunpowder would come and take over France. So eventually everywhere in the world ended up with

gunpowder either because people adopted it or because it was used against them. Bitcoin is

like financial gunpowder. It's the safest way of sending money halfway around the world and

it's the hardest money that we've ever invented. That is the history of money. It goes back

5,000 years or more. So if Bitcoin is speculation then the only thing that I'm really speculating on

is that the future of money behaves to some degree like the entire history of money has behaved

since the history of economics existed. That's where you arrive at simply looking at a draw

down like this as a temporary mispricing, a temporary misalignment, a short term fluctuation

in an exchange rate. And at the end of the day the problem is just human psychology. Your psychology

is basically your enemy in situations like this. Your emotions are your enemy when it comes to

markets or investing of any kind basically. Your psychology is basically designed to make you freak

out and lose your mind when you start to lose money or when you feel risky or when you feel scared

and question and doubt yourself. When you see something happening in the market or on the chart

that you didn't think should happen or didn't think was going to happen. But you have to not

get hijacked by the emotional side of your brain. And you have to remember what's actually going on

which is that this is the temporary misalignment. It has basically nothing to do with the fundamentals

of Bitcoin. This Bitcoin still decentralized and secure. Is it still producing blocks every

roughly on average every 10 minutes? Is the ledger still immutable? Does this still have the same

monetary properties? Is it still permissionless censorship resistant digital cash? Yes, all those

things are still true. So nothing has changed other than something about market sentiment or people's

perception of the asset. And yeah, that feels scary in the short term because for Bitcoin to go up

over time and dollar value, obviously more and more people have to realize that it's better money.

And in the short term, it looks like some of them are doubting that or not realizing that or they're

willing to sell it back into dollars for some stupid silly reason. But if you understand again,

the history of money and the fundamentals of Bitcoin, you have to understand that that is temporary.

That doesn't last forever. History tells us that the people who store value in weaker money see

their purchasing power go to zero no matter how long they want to resist the harder money or dismiss

it or say that it doesn't exist or it's not real. At the end of the day, this is economic reality.

It's not optional. You will either move there or you will watch your wealth lose its value as the

people who put their money there appreciate the harder money will win. Now could that process take

longer than some of us wanted to? Yeah, it obviously can. But again, that's where your

psychology is working against you because if you flip that on its head, that's just an opportunity

to stack more sats and exchange more dollars, more dirty debasing fiat, which is losing its value

for a harder form of money. So none of this changes anything about my conviction in Bitcoin.

It doesn't change why I bought Bitcoin in the first place and it doesn't change why I'm

happily a seller of fiat at these levels. Fiat is way overvalued at this particular point.

I'm a happy seller of dollars at any price, but flip the whole thing around. Dollars right now

are extremely overvalued relative to Bitcoin. Dollars are dirty debasing fiat that can be printed

on a whim, created out of nothing, and can't hold their value into the future. But right now,

for some strange reason, in the very short term, those dollars, their value is appreciating against

Bitcoin, which makes no sense. It actually fundamentally cannot hold for the long term that dollars

supply will keep increasing by the trillions and that they will continue to appreciate and value

against Bitcoin. That is a fundamental contradiction. It's mathematically impossible. That's obviously

the market temporarily mispricing the real hard asset that is scarce that can't have its supply

inflated. This framing from Rajat Sony, I think, is actually the best framing possible in its

situation like this. He tweeted this when Bitcoin was at 70k now. It's at I think 65. Bitcoin is

down 45% from 125k to 70k. The drawdowns are brutal, but you can use them to your advantage.

Think of it this way. At 126k, a dollar bought you 793 Satoshis. At 70k, every dollar you earn

buys you 1428 Satoshis. Your purchasing power is up 80%. This is why Bitcoiners are always happy.

Dollars denominated price goes down. You get more sats in exchange for dollars. Dollar denominated

price goes up and you get more purchasing power of goods and services in terms of Bitcoin.

Today, Bitcoin is about 64k. Roughly a 50% drawdown from that all-time high, which means every dollar

buys you 1560 sats. The rate at which you can exchange dirty-to-basing dollars for Bitcoin has

doubled. That is a gift from the Bitcoin gods. I'm stacking 100% faster than I could have

six months ago. As the wealthfront article we looked at says, loss is uncomfortable but don't

be driven by fear. It's important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing,

especially if you're investing in Bitcoin. You don't actually lose money unless you sell

your investments for less than what you paid for them. At these levels, I would definitely not sell

my Bitcoin in exchange for dirty-to-basing fiat. Think about it logically going forward. Do you

really expect a dollar to keep appreciating against scarce Bitcoin in the long term from this point

forward? Of course not. They're going to continue inflating the supply of dollars, so their value

is guaranteed to keep going down. Bitcoin is scarce, desirable, hard money. It is mathematically

impossible for weak inflationary paper money to continually rise in value versus a scarce,

desirable, fixed supply of Bitcoin. So might be uncomfortable today while the fiat

denominated price is going down, but you have to remember what you bought, why you bought it,

what you hold, understand the fundamental value, understand the history of money,

that the Bitcoin thesis is taking the entire economic human history of money and projecting

the same pattern out into the future. That's something I'm willing to bet on will play out

in the long term. And I don't care about short-term valuations other than

them being opportunities to stack more sets. So remember to zoom out, look at the math,

this is about conviction over price predictions, and my advice, as always, is that you quit slacking