
About this episode
This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy!
—
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qHbnslxFOFZXswRiw0yv1JCyplgm8haE/view?usp=sharing
—
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:09) DAS London!
(04:06) Government Shutdown
(06:42) Labor Weakness Continues
(13:45) VanEck Ad
(14:31) Demographic Decay of Advanced Economies
(17:18) Are You Ready for Negative Real Yields?
(19:20) The Macro Stars Are Aligning
(24:40) Is it a Bubble or Not?
(29:53) VanEck Ad
(30:33) Is it a Bubble or Not?
(31:40) Gaming Out Trump Admin Policy
(38:06) Is there a Bear Case?
(41:27) Strong USD, Strong Economy
(43:52) Does the Bull Market Have Legs?
(51:14) Best Bear Case
(53:16) Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
Get every episode summarized
Each time Forward Guidance publishes, we email you a written briefing from the transcript — the topics, who appeared, and any specific claims, with the ad reads skipped.
Email me new episodesFree for 3 shows. No card needed.
Hosts & guests
No transcript yet
This episode has not been transcribed. Request it and it moves to the front of the queue.
More episodes
More from Forward Guidance

Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber
Forward Guidance
Sep 2, 202644:50failed

Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekl...
Forward Guidance
Aug 27, 202653:09pending

Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Ro...
Forward Guidance
Aug 20, 202653:42pending

The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
Forward Guidance
Aug 12, 202646:09pending