The World Will Miss 1.5C. What Comes Next?

Here’s the bad news: The world is almost certainly going to miss the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. The needed emissions cuts are too large and the direction of policy too slow to lead to any other outcome. In the next few decades, global warming will slip past the 1.5 degree mark — and temperatures will keep rising.

What does that mean? What comes next? And how should we feel about that? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse chat with Kate Marvel, an associate research scientist at Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. We talk about why every 10th of a degree matters in the fight against climate change, the difference between tipping points and destabilizing feedback loops, and how to think about climate change in a disappointing time. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Mentioned: 

The UN Environmental Program’s emissions gap report

The IPCC’s monumental report on the risks of 1.5C of temperature rise

Jesse’s post-Trump op-ed: Trump Is Not the End of the Climate Fight

Rob’s piece from 2023 on the “end of climate science”

Trump’s Energy Secretary-designate Chris Wright’s speech at the American Conservation Coalition Summit

Jesse’s downshift; Rob’s upshift. 

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This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.

As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.

Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

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