The Wire - May 24, 2024

//The Wire//1800Z May 24, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CHINESE MANEUVERS EXPAND IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//

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-International Events-

Far East: Tensions in the region remain high amid Chinese military drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Limited diplomatic scuffles have been noted between Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels and PLAN ships in the Strait. Overnight, Taiwanese forces noted 49x PLA aircraft, 19x PLAN vessels, and 7 Chinese Coast Guard vessels operating in the Taiwan Strait.

AC: This is a substantial increase in forces seen over the past few months, though these numbers do align with the scale and nature of this drill. However, a difference is the rhetoric from Chinese authorities, which has been more openly hostile than in years past. Several Chinese military officials have directly claimed that these drills are to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan, along with “punishing” Taiwan’s new President for allegedly taking a more pro-independence stance.

Eastern Europe: Diplomatic tensions between Russia and Estonia increased overnight following a border dispute. Estonia alleges that last night Russian forces cut and removed border demarcation buoys in the Narva river, which separates the two nations. These buoys were emplaced by Estonia 10 days ago.

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Analyst Comments: Regarding Taiwan, the looming question persists: “Is this latest exercise the precursor to an invasion?”. At the moment, it’s too soon to tell, but vastly more ships and aircraft would be needed for an invasion to be imminent, along with many other indications and warnings. As such, closely monitoring the situation for invasion precursors would be beneficial over the next few weeks. As it stands, China’s “exercise” could be a drill, or it could be laying the groundwork for a naval blockade of Taiwan.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//